Exile on Waveland

what's irrational? as i've said, illinois made 12 layups and missed 10. raw made the claim that indiana had 7-8 missed layups, they made 14 of them, which would mean that they attempted 21-22, at best the same amount that illinois attempted. this myth that indiana got to the basket an appreciable amount more than illinois is irrational, if anything. This is a discussion point. Almost everything else posted here, excepting bukie, has been irrationality. Regardless, those stats prove little. First, "layups" in play-by-plays and box scores aren't inherently drives to the basket (or even "lay-ups" by the common understanding). Often, the official scorer -- and I've received these every time out covering college basketball in my previous job -- counts any short jumpers as such because it's easier. Second, it may not be relevant for this game, but raw is correct that breakaway dunks are not equivalent to half-court drives when discussing fouls. Third, and, most importantly, the made/missed numbers may look the same, but that does not account for IU's drives that resulted in fouls. You can't harp on the fact that IU received a foul call every time they got close to the basket, then ignore those times they got close to the basket to prove that Illinois got close to the basket as often as IU. Further, Illinois took fifty shots and twenty-one were 3-pointers (forty-two percent of their shots). IU took forty-two shots and only twelve were 3-pointers (twenty-nine percent of their shots). This certainly implies that IU was more aggressive going to the basket and not settling for jumpers (unless there was a rash of long 2-pointers from IU, which I don't recall). Finally, you're addressing a poster that admitted last night that Illinois got homered a bit. Still, my last post was an attempt to steer away from the officiating because officiating discussions are almost inherently irrational.

Fine, irrational it is.

Some thoughts on the actual game: 1. The Leonard-Zeller matchup was interesting. I think Leonard has the second best pro potential, behind Anthony Davis, of any player I've seen in person this year (ahead of Sullinger and Zeller). He has great size and athleticism and is also quite skilled. He's definitely bigger/more athletic than Zeller. His ceiling is higher. However, I also think he has a lower floor. Zeller not only has a unique understanding of the game for a big man, but he is preternaturally cool/calm. Leonard is less mature -- everyone in the building could tell that he was just asking for a foul when he returned after his third (?) foul (pointless brag: I had excellent seats and saw it on his face). My guess is that this has both to do with Leonard's more difficult upbringing -- Zeller was especially blessed in that regard -- and, well, the victimhood coaching. I'm rooting for Leonard to put it all together and have a great NBA career -- starting next year. 2. Having watched IU the previous three years, I think I know something about players that aren't Big Ten caliber. Sam Maniscalco is not Big Ten caliber. The freshmen should play more. 3. Illinois played very poorly defensively. IU does not excel at penetrating into the lane, yet Hulls/Oladipo sliced into the lane almost at will. I'd be very upset about this if I was an Illinois fan. 4. Similarly, IU struggles keeping guards out of the lane. Yet, it seemed that Illinois eschewed penetrating -- this will inevitably lead to officiating complaints, I'm sure, but for Illinois, with its athleticism/size advatange to shoot twenty-one of fifty shots from 3-point range is difficult to understand. I expected Bertrand to play a bigger role as well. 5. The previous two points -- which had to be, at least somewhat, game-planning issues -- lead into this one. Illinois should not be below .500 in the league with their personnel. (I know illiniguy disagrees and thinks Illinois has the second most talent in the league, but I'd still take Michigan State's team over Illinois' team.) And they're below .500 despite being 2-0 against Ohio State/Michigan State. Look at their people then look at Purdue's/Northwestern's -- or, hell, Indiana's -- and it's hard to understand how Illinois is tied with them in the league. In sum, Illinois should extend Weber for at least ten years so he can get this thing figured out.

Hobgoblins.

The officiating definitely favored IU tonight. Of course, it's a road game in the Big Ten, so that entirely typical. Was it worse than typically? Possibly. But there were mitigating facts -- IU drove and went stronger to the basket more often than Illinois did which leads to more fouls being called. On Leonard's fouls: he definitely did not foul when Zeller went through him to score (though this same play has wrongly been called a foul on Zeller all conference season), the moving screen was technically correct but weak and rarely called (though called on IU the next possession, but on Pritchard so apples-to-oranges), but he definitely fouled went he shoved through Sheehey's screen. Leonard was also lucky not to get a foul and, at least, a stern talking to when he shoved Zeller down in the open court for no reason. As for the Ohio State game, sure, Sullinger had four fouls but played 29 minutes. Zeller fouled out and only played 21 minutes. Considering the disparity between the rest of Ohio State's talent and the rest of IU's talent, I have a feeling Matta would have taken that trade in a second. Hard to see much bias there.

But what if he blew by him? there was like 1.4 seconds left. I was kidding, you have to force the ball out of rivers hands IMO. Absolutely. Reggie Bullock (right?) did an awful job on the last possession; which, moreso than Tyler Zeller, resulted in Austin Rivers' open shot. Bullock ran away from Rivers, which did two things: (1) prevented a trap which could have forced Rivers to dribble backwards out of it wasting time, force a shot, or make a difficult pass (making Rivers give up the ball should have been the goal defensively); and (2) left a big man (Zeller) in an uncomfortable position alone on the perimeter guarding a player that was obviously going to shoot. Zeller compounded the issue by laying too far off a player that was obviously looking to shoot a 3-pointer to win the game (this was a difficult task for Zeller, but he can't let Rivers shoot an easy 3). Just a really poor job all around defending what everyone in the building knew was coming.

Yeah, how does this happen to a team with two lotto picks, at home?

Yes I do but that doesn't mean I agree with it and it doesn't mean its right. Jack Morris is going to make the baseball HOF because a bunch of dumbass sportswriters think that he was a big game pitcher whose numbers aren't that good because they claim he pitched to the score. Doesn't make it right. Football and baseball are pretty damn different. I'm not saying Eli is a Hall of Famer -- I don't think he is right now -- but his two Super Bowls should count for something; whereas I'm not real sure World Series wins should count for much at all.

Kentucky has only played four top-100 Pomeroy teams since losing to Indiana. Let's not get carried away; the SEC stinks and UK has not played Vanderbilt or at Florida yet. North Carolina played UK straight up and lost by one point -- at Rupp Arena. UK is probably the favorite, but they can certainly be beat. I suspect they will be beat in March (though likely not until they play another upper echelon team).

Great game. A tie was the result I was hoping for also. It's difficult for me to root for a Man U win, but I would have preferred them winning. At least Chelsea didn't. Should be a pretty fun race for fourth.

Just not before Thursday night.

"Absolute cracker." Chelsea opens a 3-0 lead on Man U; Man U scores three straight to steal a point.

More fun with (unbalanced) Big Ten scheduling. Michigan State, Illinois, and Northwestern have played nine Big Ten games. Indiana has played seven Big Ten road games.

Oh, for sure. They're one of the more enjoyable teams to watch in the nation. I hope they can have a good tournament; I wonder if the size issue will bite them earlier than their seed implies it should.

Or a road team in the phog? Oh, I'm sure. I have little doubt it'll be the same, if not worse, on Missouri's return trip to Kansas.

I don't care about Missouri or Kansas, but if I was a Kansas fan I would feel like I just played a game at the Kohl Center.

If you left Mackey Arena the last time IU beat Purdue and kept walking (only stopping to sleep 8 hours a night) you could have walked to . . . Mackey Arena's parking lot.

Indy absolutely excels at hosting events like this (I know that's impossible for Chicagoans to believe). Obviously, Indy isn't on par with cities like Miami-New Orleans-San Diego for hosting Super Bowls because of weather/excitement/scenery, but, for its limitations, it would be hard to beat Indianapolis. (And I don't even really like Indy that much.)

It's strange to say because this year's team has been better, but this year is more depressing/harder to watch than last year. I just can't understand Keith's regression; I'm no hockey expert but even I can plainly tell.

I was gonna say that it would take an incredible collapse to miss the tourney, but then I realized that they are 5-6 in the Big 10. Their schedule is fairly favorable the rest of the year. 5 home games vs. 3 road games, plus only 1 game left against a currently ranked team (home vs. MSU). IU's Big Ten schedule has been brutal so far. Ohio State-Michigan State-Michigan-Wisconsin seem to be the best four teams, and IU has played six games against that group, with four on the road. Meaning, over half of IU's games have been against top-4 conference teams and over one-third of IU's games have been on the road against top-4 conference teams. For comparison, among the other middle-of-the-pack Big Ten teams, Pudue has played three games agains the top-4 (two at home); Illinois has played three (all at home); Minnesota has played two (both on the road); and Iowa has played four (two at home). IU is 2-0 at home against top-4 conference teams, but an unsurprising 0-4 on the road (Ohio State, Michigan State, and Michigan are all undefeated at home). Nor do things get easier Saturday when IU visits Purdue -- no easy place to play, much less for IU. The rest of the Big Ten schedule, however, offers much more winnable games (obviously not to say IU will win all these games, or even necessarily should). Four of IU's last six games are at home. Only one of the last six games is against a top-4 conference opponent (at home to Michigan State). The two road games are Iowa and Minnesota (hey, I'd still bet on Iowa and Minnesota, but those aren't akin to trips to Columbus or East Lansing). I was hoping for 6-5 at this point and, if not for the awful Nebraska loss which IU just gave away, they'd be right there.

That would be a very interesting quandry. Overall, IU would still have a tournament-caliber resume, but they would have finished 4-10 their last fourteen Big Ten games. That would be pretty ugly. It might come down to who those last two wins were against. If those two wins are Northwestern and Iowa, it might be pretty difficult to rationalize including a team that has only beaten Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State, and North Carolina Central since January 5. However, if those two wins are Michigan State and Illinois/Purdue, well, then I'd think IU would be pretty worthy.

IU has been the worst team in the Big Ten in both basketball and football from 2008-11. Surely that should be sufficient ammunition.

Honestly, they probably should. Such warnings should probably exist in every stadium's programs that might be read by students. Storming the court is not desirable; while I'm not sure it has yet, it is certainly an injury waiting to happen (either to player or fan). It's also often silly (certainly, IU storming the court against Minnesota was silly).

First, I have no idea who you are talking to regarding the "extras 's'" comment. Unless you read "woes" as "wins." I love how the court-storming has become the de rigueur insult about IU fans. Like other fans never do this. Like Purdue fans never do this. http://assets.espn.go.com/photo/2008/0126/ncb_a_hummel_580.jpg Err. . . nevermind. (After a five-point win over No. 11 Wisconsin in 2008.)

Whoa! NEWSFLASH! IU just beat Iowa for the first time since Feb 2008, and they've finished bottom 3 in the conference that year and every year since. Hell, IU only has multiple wins in conference vs. Michigan, Penn St, Iowa, and Minnesota over the last 4 years. Of course, no IU player had ever beaten Kentucky, Ohio St, or anyone in the B1G/ACC challenge. Which is why I think the IU/Crean "road woes" are way overblown. Of course IU has hardly won on the road . . . they barely won any games at home.