Exile on Waveland

Yogi Ferrell is an NBA player. Silly IU fans thinking Victor Oladipo is an NBA player, huh? I know the talking heads at ESPN love him, I still don't think he's going to be much of an NBA player. Well, we shall see if he is "much" of an NBA player. He may not be; but he will play in the NBA (which is all I said). True, is he going to be a two guard? He's about as pure of a point guard as you'll find. His size is obviously going to be an issue but it's not preventative. Players in his size range are regularly drafted, even in the first round.

Yogi Ferrell is an NBA player. Silly IU fans thinking Victor Oladipo is an NBA player, huh? I know the talking heads at ESPN love him, I still don't think he's going to be much of an NBA player. Well, we shall see if he is "much" of an NBA player. He may not be; but he will play in the NBA (which is all I said).

Yogi Ferrell is an NBA player. Silly IU fans thinking Victor Oladipo is an NBA player, huh?

Do you have some fundamental inability to process bad results for Michigan? @IU @Wisky @MSU Those aren't bad results to me, they are expected. Other teams have lost games they shouldn't have over a period. Sorry that I think Michigan is better than IU Sure, in a vacuum those three losses in five games don't look bad. But we are allowed to look deeper. One of those losses Michigan was absolutely , humiliatingly throat-stomped and quit on the game (a place where IU just won). The two wins were an overtime home win against a team you just previously stated is struggling, and an eight-point home win against winless Penn State (!). For a team of Michigan's caliber, they are unquestionably struggling. There's no reason to suspect they won't snap out of this and return to top-level form -- and I think they will beat IU -- but a struggle this is. You can think Michigan is better than IU all you want -- I see little to support that, but whatever -- but I can't imagine even Michigan fans don't consider themselves in a little slump. It is ignoring that, not your opinion about who is better, that makes me question your ability to process Michigan's results. It really boils down to one thing for me....PG. There are going to be a few more teams able to give Indiana fits in the tournament than Michigan. Teams who play full court pressure D could really pose problems for Indiana come March. Louisville is certainly the first team that comes to mind, that would be a BAD matchup for the Hoosiers and likely eliminate them IMO. VCU is another team who would pose problems, they have the best on ball defender in the country. I'm not sure I could more vehemently disagree with this. First, IU's point guard play is more than fine--they have a future NBA player at the position. Yogi Ferrell is not Trey Burke; however, Ferrell's efficiency numbers compare quite well with Burke's freshman campaign--offensive rating (107.2-105.3), effective field goal percentage (44.5-50.2), true shooting percentage (50.5-53.8), assist rate (26.3-28.7), and turnover rate (24.3-18.6) (certainly the usages rates differ greatly, 68.3-89.2). Ferrell is also an excellent defensive player. Second, IU's weakness lies in teams that slow the game down and physically grind it out in the half-court--not teams that want to speed the game up. In a general recipe for attacking a press, IU has one excellent ballhandler, multiple shooters, two big men that can handle the ball, and the best big man in the nation running the court. As for the teams you mention, sure either could beat IU. Louisville is one of the best teams in the nation and top-three favorite to win the title. They're capable of beating anyone. VCU would be capable of beating IU--but IU beat them in the tournament last year without an NBA point guard (their point guard at the time, Jordan Hulls, is a player that struggles quite a bit while trapped/pressured). I don't, however, view either as an intrinsically bad matchup for IU. Third, even assuming this is a weakness for IU, all teams have areas they can be exploited. Michigan is pretty reliant on jumpshots, their defense is less than elite, and their frontcourt is not great. I'd posit these issues are far more disconcerting than your speculative belief that IU might struggle against pressing teams (of which there are very few).

Because I consider most their players dangerous, literally. They seem to go out of their way to commit hard fouls and hack away, while Chambers looks on approvingly.

And Wisconsin. Along with decent wins against Memphis and Stanford, two other potential bubble teams. They should win 3 of their last 4, and that'll make things safe for them. I think their SOS is like 3rd right now, and their RPI is still in the teens, so that should help them. But man have they been awful. They will probably recover after this next game and save their spot in the tourney, but who knows...their confidence could be completely shot by that point. Is Tubby going to lose his job? One would think he's close. These late-season collapses are pretty much becoming par for the course; a main reason I was never that excited about Minnesota. Under Tubby Smith: 2008: 10-2 non-conference, 8-10 Big Ten (losers of five of last eight regular season games) 2009: 12-0; 9-9 (lost eight of last twelve games) 2010: 9-3; 9-9 2011: 11-1; 6-12 (lost ten of last eleven games) 2012: 12-1; 6-12 (lost six of last seven and eight of eleven regular season games) 2013: 12-1; 6-8 (lost eight of eleven currently) This will probably reverse-jinx them and they'll manage to beat IU next Tuesday now, but, dang, that's ugly. And it's a trend at this point. (Though, in Smith's defense, Minnesota is not an easy place to win . . . especially in today's Big Ten.)

The point of my post was not a comparison or the transitive property; I merely intended to show Michigan is struggling a bit now. It will end, but they have not played as well recently.

Kind of anti-climactic with Indiana winning the rest of their games. Ha. If IU does manage to win their next three games, it will make the game at Michigan even more difficult. If that happens, IU likely will have the Big Ten locked up -- Michigan State is very likely to lose another game with their schedule -- and that game would all of a sudden mean way, way more to Michigan than IU and IU would be coming off a senior night celebration. Probably would become IU's worst performance/loss of the season. Unless you lose by 15+ to Michigan, I can't put that past the Butler game. It's hard for me to argue with that. However, as an IU fan I've pretty come to terms with IU's inability to beat Butler in Indianapolis. So I am a bit numb to it. Sad, but true.

Do you have some fundamental inability to process bad results for Michigan? @IU @Wisky @MSU Those aren't bad results to me, they are expected. Other teams have lost games they shouldn't have over a period. Sorry that I think Michigan is better than IU Sure, in a vacuum those three losses in five games don't look bad. But we are allowed to look deeper. One of those losses Michigan was absolutely , humiliatingly throat-stomped and quit on the game (a place where IU just won). The two wins were an overtime home win against a team you just previously stated is struggling, and an eight-point home win against winless Penn State (!). For a team of Michigan's caliber, they are unquestionably struggling. There's no reason to suspect they won't snap out of this and return to top-level form -- and I think they will beat IU -- but a struggle this is. You can think Michigan is better than IU all you want -- I see little to support that, but whatever -- but I can't imagine even Michigan fans don't consider themselves in a little slump. It is ignoring that, not your opinion about who is better, that makes me question your ability to process Michigan's results.

Hopefully we get a chance to see, but I think you're seriously underrating Florida because they have the misfortune of playing in a football conference. If they were just winning by 10-15 points or so against the dregs, then maybe I'd see if differently, but they are throttling teams by 25 points and they do it with brutal efficiency. Plus, if you don't see much of a difference between No. 150 and No. 250, then I don't see a difference between beating Purdue (91) or Auburn (152) or Northwestern (100) or South Carolina (207). They're throttling teams . . . except when they're losing as many games in the seventh-best conference per Pomeroy as IU is losing in the best conference, by far, per Pomeroy (Florida's conference margin-of-victory is 21.6 points per game, while IU's is 13). Again, IU has a better record in the Big Ten (.8677) than Florida does in the SEC (.7439). The "Wisconsin-ing bad teams" is pretty obviously an issue with Pomeroy's system, and Florida is doing that. (And, again, I'd note Florida compiled these statistics with the services of Yeguete, who they no longer have.) Second, there are diminishing returns on beating lesser teams -- at IU or Florida's level No. 200 and No. 250 are nearly indistinguishable, whereas No. 50 and No. 100 are less so (I watched IU beat, among others Nos. 188 and 314, and against a team the caliber of IU those teams are impossible to differentiate because they're both cannon fodder). Even so, sure, go ahead consider Purdue and Northwestern equal to Auburn and South Carolina; it doesn't matter. The SEC cannot answer for the five Big Ten teams, excluding IU, ranked ahead of the SEC's second highest ranked team. None of this is to say Florida isn't very good; I'll probably pick them in the Final Four. None of this is to say Florida can't or won't beat IU; obviously they are, IU has lost to worse teams.

Kind of anti-climactic with Indiana winning the rest of their games. Ha. If IU does manage to win their next three games, it will make the game at Michigan even more difficult. If that happens, IU likely will have the Big Ten locked up -- Michigan State is very likely to lose another game with their schedule -- and that game would all of a sudden mean way, way more to Michigan than IU and IU would be coming off a senior night celebration. Probably would become IU's worst performance/loss of the season.

Do you have some fundamental inability to process bad results for Michigan?

Absolutely. It's one of the big reasons the RPI is a farce. And it's stupid that IU is anti-gaming their strength of schedule, but they are. You're just not going to convince me that games against the top-25/50/100/whatever are not far, far more telling than games against sub-150/200/whatever teams (a point I agreed with earlier in the season when SSR said IU was overrated in Pomeroy because they were "Wisconsin-ing bad teams").

Wish it was in Indianapolis this year so I could go. There are eight teams that could win it without me being totally shocked. I'm expecting at least one big upset on Friday. Any team winning Friday wouldn't be a big upset. I'm expecting at least one big upset Thursday between Purdue/NW/Nebraska/PSU. Fair enough. I think most would consider, say, Iowa over Indiana a big upset, but in reality it probably isn't (at least not away from Bloomington).

There is definitely a difference between a ~150 rated team and a ~300 rated team. Saying the strength of schedule is skewed because Crean schedules poorly isn't a reflection on the strength of schedule numbers. EDIT: Florida is rated higher in Pomeroy's ratings because they've been posting completely insane efficiency numbers in the SEC this season. Just crazy. Sure, there is a difference. But top-5 type teams basically never lose to those teams. As an example of what I was saying, if IU went 10-0 in the non-conference against teams ranked 200-209, and Florida went 10-0 in the non-conference against teams ranked 190-199, Florida would have played a more difficult schedule. And we would know next to nothing to differentiate the two teams. (By the way, this is a sign of myopic, poorly designed scheduling by IU.)

Wish it was in Indianapolis this year so I could go. There are eight teams that could win it without me being totally shocked. I'm expecting at least one big upset on Friday.

Even after losing last night Florida is still Pomeroy's No. 1 team and ranked No. 2 respectively in both offense and defense. As for SOS, Sagarin gives Florida the edge. Indiana is a close No. 2, but they are still No. 2. And we all know Pomeroy is not perfect (Sagarin has Indiana No. 1, for what it's worth.) The strength of schedule is skewed because Crean likes to schedule multiple body bag games in the non-conference season (IU had the No. 293 Pomeroy non-conference schedule, Florida No. 48); which hurts the overall strength of schedule but tells us very little -- for teams at the top, beating a team ranked No. 150 or a team ranked No. 250 is an irrelevancy. Florida has exactly one win against a Pomeroy top-20 team (dominating Wisconsin -- way back on November 14). Indiana has six such wins, two on the road. IU is 7-1 against the Sagarin top-25; Florida 4-3. Florida also just lost a key player to injury (Will Yeguete).

OK?

no way Way. The best team in the nation won in East Lansing last night. Look at Florida's resume, then look at Indiana's, and it becomes pretty difficult to come to a different conclusion. Indiana has a better record in the Big Ten than Florida has in the SEC.

I have never seen Nix double over in pain when he purposely runs into another players elbow. That's a rather interesting interpretation of events.

Yeah IU was much more likable when they were 6-25 patsies, huh? Funny how that works. And Zeller? For why? (Coming from a fan of a team with Derrick Nix!)

Wow has it been that long? Seventeen straight losses. IU did not play there in 1992-93, otherwise the streak would likely be slightly shorter.

That's fine; I just meant he has to be in the conversation. He's one of the best few players in the league, easily. But, no, Liverpool certainly has failed to live up to their talent-level (though I have hopes Sturridge will help change that . . . they were so dependent on Suarez to score).

I would never ever ever start with Suarez. Not to mention he is a player that has to be surrounded by talent to make anything of it. I would start with van Persie over him even if he is 3 years older than Suarez. He has the look of the next Torres. I'd be reluctant to start with him because he's likely to be suspended a few games every year (and deservedly so). That said, you think he has to be surrounded by talent? I'm not sure when that's even happened. Uruguay finished fourth in the 2010 World Cup and won the 2011 Copa America in Argentina (with Suarez named best player). Uruguay wasn't the fourth-most talented team at the World Cup or the most talented team at the Copa America. Suarez is second in the EPL in scoring on a crap Liverpool team that did not have another striker until the January transfer window. Seems to me he consistently has proven to do well without surrounding talent. Just because people think him a villain doesn't make him less a player. He's brilliant.

He's an expletive, but Luis Suarez. He just turned twenty-six (Aguero will turn twenty-five this summer, Bale twenty-four).