Exile on Waveland

Shore. Bob Marley stirs it up. I wondered which one was right as I was typing it. I say it as "shore" but admittedly I don't know if it's right. Mike Greenberg on Mike and Mike this morning actually said it "sure." You're right; he's wrong. http://www.thefreedictionary.com/shore+up I think I should have said, more accurately, that Bob Marley steers it up.

Shore. Bob Marley stirs it up.

They're not very good? They beat UConn, Memphis, Villanova, Syracuse, Providence, and Maryland. I think schizophrenic is more appropriate than "not very good."

Xavier Florida State Illinois Gonzaga RPI is much harsher on Xavier's losses than Pomeroy --Xavier's worst loss on Pomeroy is No. 139 (Charlotte). I'm on record here saying bad losses don't bother me a whole lot; especially for a team that's 12-5 against the top-100. Illinois and Florida State are closer than I thought. It was basically a coin flip for me between the two. Thanks bukie.

I knew last night would be tough for Butler. They only beat Cleveland State by two points twice, and last night meant much more to the Vikings. Someone just got relegated to the NIT.

Thabeet is averaging 13.6 ppg, 10.8 rpg, 4.5 bpg, and 1.74 pps, while shooting 64% from the field. Every one of those leads UConn, except points -- in which Adrien has a total of three more points for a 0.1 superior per game average. Thabeet also, at 7-foot-3, is a dynamic shot-blocking presence that changes the opposing team's entire approach to the game. He's easily UConn's most important, and effective, player. Multiple teams have a guard as good as Price or a forward as good as Adrien. What separates UConn is Thabeet.

How good is a team? That's an entirely subjective and immeasurable standard.* It simply cannot be the criterion. Obviously, as per most everything, exceptions have to be made. An injury, a transfer, etc. *Actually, we do have a measure. It's what the team has accomplished.

Second. Third. Fourth. I was ready to fight for Georgetown if they wouldn't have lost to St. John's twice in the past week.

Eh, just because they lost (embarrassingly), doesn't mean you were wrong before.

DePaul -- haha, DePaul -- is about to make Cincinnati irrelevant, it seems.

I'd agree with all those except Utah State. I think they're largely getting a raw deal, and should get credit for winning a top 10 league (about as much credit as LSU should for winning the SEC). Cincinnati maybe has a shot if they reach the BE Finals. Other than that it'd take an auto-bid to get any of those teams in, likely. Which means Green Bay, Illinois State, and Niagara would be out completely. EDIT: I'd also dump Davidson. They have really nothing to stand on other than "look at what we did last year", which isn't a committee criteria. Also, Niagara may be getting a raw deal, as their resume is about as good as St. Mary's. Not sure if that's good for Niagara or bad for St. Mary's. I agree with that list with the exception of Utah State, Cinci(assuming they win at least 2 games) Northwestern(see cinci). If Cincinnati only wins two games in the Big East Tournament they'll have beaten DePaul (terrible) and Providence (bubble) and will stand at 20-14 with one, maybe two, wins against tournament teams. I think they almost certainly have to win three, which would require them to beat DePaul, Providence then Louisville. I'd call that a miraculous run. Northwestern is in better shape, as if they win two games (Minnesota and Michigan State), they are likely back in the discussion. Winning those two may not be miraculous (my standard), but I don't think that will be enough either.

I'd agree with all those except Utah State. I think they're largely getting a raw deal, and should get credit for winning a top 10 league (about as much credit as LSU should for winning the SEC). Cincinnati maybe has a shot if they reach the BE Finals. Other than that it'd take an auto-bid to get any of those teams in, likely. Which means Green Bay, Illinois State, and Niagara would be out completely. EDIT: I'd also dump Davidson. They have really nothing to stand on other than "look at what we did last year", which isn't a committee criteria. Also, Niagara may be getting a raw deal, as their resume is about as good as St. Mary's. Not sure if that's good for Niagara or bad for St. Mary's. I thought about leaving Utah State off, but their best wins are Utah (nice win) and Nevada. They also have lost three of six and a strength of schedule of 131. That was my reasoning, but, still, I think I may agree with you. They probably don't deserve to get completely eliminated. On Davidson, they were on my original list. They shouldn't make it by the criteria the committee uses. I am just less sure they won't get an added boost because of last year. I don't think they'll make it, but I bet they come closer than their resume suggests. Sorry if that's too cynical. I just don't see Niagara getting in. I also think wins over Providence, San Diego State and Utah State distinguish St. Mary's from the Purple Eagles. Not to mention losses without Mills and Niagara's four losses to sub-150 Pomeroy teams.

Top 16 from here: Other teams in (30): Arizona State, Butler, BYU, California, Chattanooga (SoCon), Clemson, Cornell (Ivy), ETSU (ASun), Florida State, Gonzaga (WCC), Illinois, Kansas, LSU, Marquette, Missouri, Morehead State (OVC), Northern Iowa (MVC), Purdue, Radford (BSouth), Siena (MAAC), Syracuse, Texas, UCLA, Utah, VCU (CAA), Villanova, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Xavier Top 8 from here: (Bubble) (32): Arizona, Auburn, Boston College, Cincinnati, Creighton, Davidson, Dayton, Florida, Georgetown, Green Bay, Houston, Illinois State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Maryland, Miami, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, Niagara, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Providence, Rhode Island, San Diego State, South Carolina, St. Mary's, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Tulsa, UAB, UNLV, USC, Utah State, Virginia Tech, Washington State, Wisconsin Top 16 (and as TT said, a lot of these teams are difficult to distinguish after the first few): Wake Forest Kansas Missouri Villanova Washington UCLA Xavier Clemson Florida State Gonzaga Illinois Syracuse Purdue Arizona State BYU Next eight: Tennessee Texas A & M OKlahoma State Wisconsin Boston College Michigan Dayton Minnesota Assuming these teams don't make a miraculous conference tournament run, I would pretty much eliminate: Cincinnati, Georgetown, Green Bay, Houston, Illinois State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Nebraska, Niagara, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Temple, Tulsa, UAB, USC, Utah State, and Washington State. That may be overly harsh for some, but I don't really think so. Again, my list may not be perfect. I'm willing to change with convincing.

I'm thinking both WCC teams get in regardless. Also, I just read that St. Mary's added a game against Eastern Washington this Friday. How odd is that?

I'm sure you just accidentally glossed over them, but how do you not have Louisville as a lock? And, um, LSU? Cause they suck? Yup. No way they deserve a protected seed.

I'm sure you just accidentally glossed over them, but how do you not have Louisville as a lock? And, um, LSU?

I have not thoroughly perused each team, but this is at least a rough approximation of my protected seeds: Pitt North Carolina UConn Louisville Duke Michigan State Oklahoma Memphis Wake Forest Kansas Missouri Clemson Villanova Washington UCLA Xavier Rough bubble teams: West Virginia Texas California BYU Utah Texas A&M Wisconsin Boston College/Oklahoma State I have to be honest, I didn't even look at the bubble list from this thread while ranking the above. So it's very possible one of those is considered a lock for purposes of this thread, or someone better isn't and I overlooked them.

PSU should roll past IU. Penn State beat Indiana by three points in Happy Valley last weekend. Yeah I forgot about that. Shouldn't have said "roll" but I still give them a solid edge. Well, yeah, they're almost certainly going to win. Indiana's not good. But I don't expect IU to get rolled either.

PSU should roll past IU. Penn State beat Indiana by three points in Happy Valley last weekend.

I liked Cal, the first time through, I had them around 5-6 on my bubble, but took a 2nd look and bumped em out. i don't understand what your bubble is, you have 16 locks and 8 bubble teams, there are a lot more teams that make the tourney than that. Those are his protected seeds and then his top eight bubble teams.

Thank you storm warning for making me miss the end of regulation.

1. I like Wazzou but don't think they can conceivably garner an at-large berth at this point. Not at 16-14 and no marquee wins out of conference to speak of. It's too bad, because they're better at this point than many teams that will get at-large berths. 2. I don't think much of LSU either, but at 25-6 (13-3) out of the SEC they are a lock. I bet they're surprised and disappointed at their seed though. 3. Tennessee is going to make it, but they're seemingly higher on the bubble list than they should be. The SEC simply doesn't have much of anything going for it. So, in conclusion, I guess I'm just agreeing with you.

Tennessee-Martin was upset last night by Morehead State 63-55 in the OVC semifinals. That unfortunately relegates the regular season champion Skyhawks to the NIT. The reason that's unfortunate is that Lester Hudson won't be in the tournament. He's a future pro averaging 27.3 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 4.1 apg, and 2.4 spg.

And Indiana has a win over a tournament team!

I would have to agree.