davell

Goony on the #PoorTomRicketts train?

Our front office has consistently been philosophically opposed to signing pitchers Max Scherzer's age that kind of money. It's not happening. I think they know that when they have no other options, they're smart enough to do it.

I think it's pretty easy to look at the organization and say we'll need to target ofers and starting pitchers. Very little can happen in 14 that would make me think otherwise Starting pitching, sure, I'll give you that. Outfielders? What if Olt looks solid at 3B, or Villanueva, for that matter? KB comes up as a RFer, because he's not nearly as good at 3B as either of them. If Soler and Almora both look to be mid 2015 callups and are both top 20 prospects still, are you considering the OF as a bigtime hole? I have no issue trading Alcantara and Vogelbach for an OFer, even in this situation, but I think I'd prefer dealing them for a SP instead.

I'm the one that started the "lets look at 2015" stuff, but you know what? It's kind of impossible for us to do that, with any real feel right now. It's cliche, it sucks, and its even [expletive], but 2014 is literally ALL about player development. Will any of Lake, Sweeney, Ruggiano, Olt, Arrieta, Hendricks, Vizcaino, or Rusin turn themselves into something we can count on heading into 2015. Will Castro, Rizzo, and Castillo, even Shark, take steps forward, to where any of them look like more than we think they are? Will Travis Wood have another very solid season, showing himself to be more than what we think he likely is right now? How many of Javy, KB, Alcantara, Villanueva, Szczur, Rivero, or anyone else are going to show enough that we can just pencil them in a spot on the team heading into spring training 2015, plus how good are some of them likely to be? It's too volatile right now. We may look at this in August and know what we've got, but there are too many ifs right now. Some of which will stay as ifs, some of which will turn into no's, and some of which are full on yes. While it may be simplistic to say we look like a low 70's win team in 2014, there are too many guys we just don't know what to expect from, to make it easy to figure what positions we'll even be targeting in 2015. Either way though, with THIS many interesting cases in player development, even with the worst offseason ever, this team will be extremely interesting to watch and evolve on an individual player standpoint.

I'd take a team that projects to win 85 games when those key players are that young, though. Exactly. Thats my point. You can make midseason deals to put you up higher or whatever too. I just don't think we were going to be much better than that, with or without Tanaka, heading into 2015. Yeah, he's younger than the FA of next year by 3 years or so, but he costs the same and likely not any better. Sucks we lost a couple of years and likely a 2nd round pick next year, but my main point is losing Tanaka isn't THAT big of a deal, in the total scheme. We did if the plan was to sign Tanaka this year and Masterson next Just keep Shark then and sign one of the 3. I don't think we planned on having Shark/Tanaka/Wood/Jackson AND one of Scherzer/Masterson/Bailey, although it would have been nice.

I'd take a team that projects to win 85 games when those key players are that young, though. Exactly. Thats my point. You can make midseason deals to put you up higher or whatever too. I just don't think we were going to be much better than that, with or without Tanaka, heading into 2015. Yeah, he's younger than the FA of next year by 3 years or so, but he costs the same and likely not any better. Sucks we lost a couple of years and likely a 2nd round pick next year, but my main point is losing Tanaka isn't THAT big of a deal, in the total scheme.

It only has two guys that I'm reasonably sure are above-average pitchers at the ages they'll be in 2015. I get that Arrieta is a wild card. If he pitches WELL in 2014, I'm not sure if I'd be confident in him for the following year. I technically agree with your statement, but I'd bet that ONE of Wood or Jackson is, just not sure which one.

Yep. I based it off of a 100 mill. The OF isn't going to change a TON with Almora/Soler on the way. I do think we're likely to stopgap ourselves there until they get here. I do think Alcantara/Vogelbach brings a very solid bat though. If you've got Wood/Edwin/Arrieta, with a Masterson/Scherzer/Bailey addition AND a top 50 prospect, Hendricks, CJ, PJ, along with a stopgap competing for the 5th spot, I disagree, I don't see that rotation sucking. If you prefer holding onto Shark here, instead of trading him, fine. You'd have Shark/Wood/Jackson/Arrieta and one of those 3. Whats wrong with that?

The outfield is terrible, the whole offense has an OBP problem, and the rotation isn't terrible but isn't "top-of-division" quality. That team's not terrible, but it's probably not making the playoffs. If we've got a new TV deal, much more can be done. Thats based on a 100 mill payroll.

You trade Samardzija and actually sign one of those FA pitchers and you're right back where you started in terms of pitching. I'm just trying to better my odds of coming up with a young guy that can turn into a TOR SP. Sanchez/Stroman, etc. With the lineup in place, I think the rotation being on a par with 2013 is OK, if you've added possibilities for a break out type.

Oh yeah, we're *totally* going to pay the market price for whatever 30-year-olds don't get contract extensions. And you'd need two of those to have more than a "well, it's not impossible" chance. I disagree. C Castillo 1B Rizzo 2B Javy SS Castro 3B KB LF Sweeney CF Lake RF Ruggiano SP Wood, Jackson, Arrieta Sign one of Masterson, Scherzer, or Bailey, another SP for depth(you'd have Shark's return as a possibility as well) and trade Alcantara/Vogelbach for best OFer it can get you. With Almora and Soler on the way, along with CJ/PJ/Hendricks for rotation possibilities. I think that team has a good look to it, and should just get better over time.

Playoffs are a realistic possibility with Travis Wood as our number 1 and the hopes that other teams don't like spending actual money to extend their own players? Scherzer, Bailey, and Masterson are definitely hitting FA. If Castro and Rizzo look solid and Javy and KB look as if they can be penciled in as 2015 starters, I see no reason Theo wouldn't sign 29-30 year old FA at that point.

I really, really wanted Tanaka, but we can get Scherzer, Masterson, or Bailey, trade for an OFer, while still trading Shark, and be a playoff possibility in 2015. Even with Tanaka, 2014 was not going to happen anyway, in all likelihood. It is what it is, but I'll take another top 5 pick, trade Shark, Veras, Schierholtz at the deadline, and add bigtime next offseason. Playoffs are a realistic possibility in 2015, in my opinion.

Man, if there was some sort of participation trophy for effort we'd have it on lock. Unfortunately who gives a [expletive] if we "finished second". Stunning that a terrible team wasn't able to convince a guy to play here instead of in NY for the same money and a somewhat decent team. Apparently our wave after wave of prospects pitch wasn't convincing. We'll win more games over the life of Tanaka's deal than the Yanks will. Even with us sucking in 2014. And 2015. If Tanaka opts out after 4 I'd bet on the yankees I agree with that, but Tanaka will have to be very, very good to opt out of 3/67 at 29. If he's a 4 WAR type, it'll be an interesting decision. If Javy and KB are day 1 starters and we added one of Scherzer, Homer, or Masterson, plus get an OFer with a package starting with Vogelbach and Alcantara, I think we're a .500+ team in 2015, which I'd say puts us in the same win area as the Yanks.

Man, if there was some sort of participation trophy for effort we'd have it on lock. Unfortunately who gives a [expletive] if we "finished second". Stunning that a terrible team wasn't able to convince a guy to play here instead of in NY for the same money and a somewhat decent team. Apparently our wave after wave of prospects pitch wasn't convincing. We'll win more games over the life of Tanaka's deal than the Yanks will. Even with us sucking in 2014.

Kaplan tweeted we came in second, non contention kept us from offering higher. [expletive] it, just trade Shark now. 2015 pretty much just went out the realistic window.

And Loxas' [expletive] reaction is to pat himself on the back, saying Cubs offer of 160 must not have been off.

We are going to SUCK

Follow @Legit_Reporter for all Tanaka news.

Basically Loxas knows nothing. Loxas will make a pro Yankee tweet next. Get pissed off again when people question his "info", since they don't understand that it's not a true scoop. Then, when Tanaka signs, he'll go back to whatever post he was correct with, and pat himself on the back for a week, for scooping the mainstream guys by a full day.

Why do they need to question it when they know to take it with a grain of salt (a big one at that) already? Dude is a respected poster over there and they have questioned him before. It's just tiring for a lot of posters that have known ABTY for years now. They just like it because it's something to talk about or it's different. While he doesn't have any "direct" inside source (like Marlin does), he does talk to scouts (mainly Royals since he used to worked for them or covered them as a reporter- can't remember which) and the likes. He just relays what they say so it's the case of "he's hearing from this scout who heard from another scout who heard it straight from that organization source". It's 2nd hand stuff. What's the problem is since it's going through at least 2 people, the whole thing might be wrong by the time it gets to ABTY. What one person hears might be totally different or forgot some key stuff that the person actually said. So when he posts as much as he has, the odds are going to be very poor that he's right, but he does get some things right though. He does get some craziness/off the wall stuff that makes you wonder. It was weird how they went after you though. I'm still looking for the actual ABTY post that started it all. Do you know what page it's on? I'm also convinced that's why Marlin rarely ever shows up anymore on PSD. I think its on page 62 here.

My current chances: Yankees 40% Dodgers 40% Cubs 10% Rest 10% Earlier today, it was probably 30-30-30-10. I trust Mooney/Kaplan more than Arguello/Loxas.

Mooney doesn't see us with much of a shot either.

Kaplan said on the radio he heard our offer isn't close to the 160 mill rumor from today.

If I were them, I'd reset, I just don't see it though. Even if they miss on Tanaka, they'll definitely get at least one of whats left, maybe multiples. I did see one report that said privately, some Yankees front office members hope they miss out on Tanaka, then it'd be easier to go back and try to get under 189 this year.