ConstableRabbit

Why do you think certain pitchers get more run support than others on the same team? As long as my team scores more than the other team, I'm happy...

I guess no one ever told Hendry to find lucky players instead of good players. This is kinda frustrating. I've said this several times: When looking for a free agent, you don't look at wins as much as era. End of story. You have no idea how the pitcher is going to win with the new team. However, during the course of a season, a stat like era, while showing how good a pitcher's performance is, doesnt necessarily show how valuable a pitcher is to the team. Wins, imo, do. Listen, I think the pitcher with the best performance should win the Cy Young... this year, it should go to Clemens. But to say that he has been the most valuable pitcher to his team. Do you get the gist of what I'm saying?

I'm going with pitcher B, and it isn't even close. Correct, pitcher B is clearly a better pitcher, but what good has he been to his team compared to pitcher A? His performance has been outstanding, he's done everything he could to help the team, but it wasn't enough. I feel for him and his record.. it's not his fault he's 11-7, but the bottom line is that when he is on the mound, his team has won 11 games, but when pitcher A is on the mound, the team has won 20.

I'm curious as to how many runs he has given up in those games and how these totals compare to others in the league. Go for it. That is too ambitious for me. However, to me, this is why averages count. His Earned Run Average is that of the entire year. Its sitting around 4.27, or something like that. The average run support for Maddux per start was 5.51, but that was questioned, so I provided the breakdown above. At some point, unless there is an obvious statistical exception that can be pointed to, averages need to be trusted for what they are, for what they represent. It's also too ambitious for me. I was just trying to make the point that if an offense happens to score more for a particular pitcher (who knows the reason, but it happens), I could care less if that particular pitcher has a higher ERA. Prior's ERA is 3.69 and his Run Support Average is 4.69 Maddux's ERA is 4.28 and his Run Support Average is 5.51 When Prior pitches, the Cubs are +1.00 run When Maddux pitches, the Cubs are +1.23 runs Does this mean that he (Greg) is a better pitcher statistically? Clearly, no. Does it mean that he has been more important to the team this year than Prior? The answer is not so cut and dry. The bottom line in baseball is scoring more than your opponent. That's how you win games. When Maddux is on the hill, that occurs to a greater extent than when Prior is pitching. Is he worth $9 million this year? Nope. But I can understand why he may be making more than Prior based strictly on performance. (Clearly all other things considered, Prior has the advantage because of his potential and age!) nice to see you do some stats. next time you may want to do them correctly. you can not count all the runs allowed in his starts against him. can't blame him for his relievers work. maddux has given up 22 runs in his 12 wins. less than 2 per start. his worse ouiting was the one a few weeks back. he gave up 4 in a 11-4 complete game victory. he gave up 2 in the eighth while he was up 11-2 and finishing the game to save the bullpen(do we remember that) he could have easily be out after 7. he was at his highest ptich total but stayed in to help the team. he has 2 other games that the cubs won big 14-6,11-5 but maddux gave up only 3 in each. for the record,the he has given up 0,2,1,4,0,2,3,3,3,2,0,2 in his 12 wins....thank god he has all that offensive support! he has not won a single game where his offense won it for him. ? I'm a little confused at what you're saying. I think Maddux is very valuable to the team and.. you seem to agree with me? Forgive me if I'm misunderstanding whatever sarcasm might be laced in your post, I've been on some pretty strong painkillers since thurs, but I was trying to make the point that Maddux is valuable and a winner regardless of his era. I could care less if a pitcher gives up more runs if he gets the offense to offset those runs.

Well stated. The playoffs are a crap shoot, but there hasn't been a team that has made a run of extended excellence as the Braves have in my lifetime. I'd take one WS win and 15 division championships anyday for the Cubs. No doubt, I think a lot of casual (or even serious) baseball fans tend to overlook them because they haven't won many world series. The numbers are there, the highest winning pct, wow.

Haha, Derwood, with your sig it looks like Dusty is asking that question... :lol: :lol:

I was thinking the same thing. They can't seem to win it. Maybe if they filled their stadium... :roll: Those capacity crowds that come to every Marlin and Blue Jay game sure do inspire them don't they? 8-[ I was talking about the playoffs. I do believe Fla and Toronto had packed houses in the playoffs, no? Either way, Atlanta is notorious for not selling out playoff seats. I don't think I have to mention 2003. I know, I was just pulling your leg, wrong emoticon I guess. Haha, It's hard to tell sometimes. I would have recommended 25 consec "angry head banging into a wall" emoticons... :lol:

I'm curious as to how many runs he has given up in those games and how these totals compare to others in the league. Go for it. That is too ambitious for me. However, to me, this is why averages count. His Earned Run Average is that of the entire year. Its sitting around 4.27, or something like that. The average run support for Maddux per start was 5.51, but that was questioned, so I provided the breakdown above. At some point, unless there is an obvious statistical exception that can be pointed to, averages need to be trusted for what they are, for what they represent. It's also too ambitious for me. I was just trying to make the point that if an offense happens to score more for a particular pitcher (who knows the reason, but it happens), I could care less if that particular pitcher has a higher ERA. Prior's ERA is 3.69 and his Run Support Average is 4.69 Maddux's ERA is 4.28 and his Run Support Average is 5.51 When Prior pitches, the Cubs are +1.00 run When Maddux pitches, the Cubs are +1.23 runs Does this mean that he (Greg) is a better pitcher statistically? Clearly, no. Does it mean that he has been more important to the team this year than Prior? The answer is not so cut and dry. The bottom line in baseball is scoring more than your opponent. That's how you win games. When Maddux is on the hill, that occurs to a greater extent than when Prior is pitching. Is he worth $9 million this year? Nope. But I can understand why he may be making more than Prior based strictly on performance. (Clearly all other things considered, Prior has the advantage because of his potential and age!)

I was thinking the same thing. They can't seem to win it. Maybe if they filled their stadium... :roll: Those capacity crowds that come to every Marlin and Blue Jay game sure do inspire them don't they? 8-[ I was talking about the playoffs. I do believe Fla and Toronto had packed houses in the playoffs, no? Either way, Atlanta is notorious for not selling out playoff seats. I don't think I have to mention 2003.

I'm curious as to how many runs he has given up in those games and how these totals compare to others in the league.

I was thinking the same thing. They can't seem to win it. Maybe if they filled their stadium... :roll:

That's what Todd Walker once said about Jason Dubois. :cry: More important than his country strength was is inability to hit ye old country breaking ball. Edited 15 sec later for terrible grammar.

I completely agree with that statement. I think most of us do. The real debate is why he's not worth 9 and how overpaid he is, not that we need to restate everything.

Probably. The option vesting was discussed at the time of the signing, and then even during last season. Ah, I wasn't here then. It just kinda seemed like some "ARGH IM FRUSTRATED AND WE SUCK" venting, which is completely ok and natural.. especially when we are frustrasted and do suck. Just curious. Well, if you're feeling ambitious(or bored)....The Granddaddy of Maddux threads :shock: It kind of just spiralled into a lot of sniping and mod testing at the end. I checked this board weekly or so before joining and one of the things I love about it is how off-topic the posts get at times. ...i LIKE BIKES

Probably. The option vesting was discussed at the time of the signing, and then even during last season. Ah, I wasn't here then. It just kinda seemed like some "ARGH IM FRUSTRATED AND WE SUCK" venting, which is completely ok and natural.. especially when we are frustrasted and do suck. Just curious. Well, if you're feeling ambitious(or bored)....The Granddaddy of Maddux threads :shock:

Probably. The option vesting was discussed at the time of the signing, and then even during last season. Ah, I wasn't here then. It just kinda seemed like some "ARGH IM FRUSTRATED AND WE SUCK" venting, which is completely ok and natural.. especially when we are frustrasted and do suck. Just curious.

That's kinda my point though... we score more runs for Maddux, so who cares what his ERA is? That is an alarming position to me. Do you think we score more runs just because Maddux is on the hill? I doubt you do. If so, there ought to be an investigation why the Cub offense can so easily turn it on and off, and why the hell it isn't turned on all the time! If Greg continues his streak this year, it will largely be due to circumstances beyond his control. At least, beyond his control moreso than any other year. I'm not trying to diminish his feat, though there is an amount that is incidental to this discussion. What I am trying to do is emphasis that he is overpaid and that the justifications for that overpayment are not in the best interests of the Cubs. The issue and/or problem here is not Maddux. Rather, it is the organization and its evaluation process for FA's. As we approach the FA signing period, it is relevant to discuss the organization's history and approach to FA's in terms of both compensation and length of contract. I'm sorry to repeat myself, but with Maddux's option vesting this week, I thought it was ripe to discuss it. Thus, the thread. I didn't mean they conciously score more for Maddux! Haha, I can see how that would sound alarming. I was just trying to say that there are several factors contributing to higher run support for certain pitchers, and imo some of these cannot be quantified. I agree with your FA argument. As I stated earlier, if I was an MLB GM, I would almost certainly pay more attention to ERA or WHIP than wins, but when we're assessing Maddux's contributions to the team, wins have to be included, imo. I think when Greg was signed, the management was looking for some consistency (which, in all fairness they got) and perhaps some leadership in the clubhouse due to a young and maturing staff. Did they overpay? Yes. But I think that he's pretty much done what's been asked of him. (And yes, I know you're not blaming Maddux for his salary - this is clearly a front-office issue). Here's a question though... it's quite the "what if": Do you think we would be discussing this in such detail had the Cubs gone to the postseason in '04 and were well on their way this year?

It depends on who you get to replace Lee. In my hypothetical where we get Overbay as well, you don't lose much defense at 1B. CPatterson (or anyone else), do you know anything about Overbay's reach? I'm a pretty big fan of his, but I don't know much about his defense. Would you consider him to be a gold glove candidate? Admittedly, I haven't seen him play very much, but he scores very highly with statistics like Rate, RAA, and RAR throughout his career. His ZR isn't very high compared to other 1B, but that's probably less reliable than the previous 3 in determining performance. Thanks, and yes, I'd say Zone Rating is an overrated stat.

The gen. consensus here has been that Matsui will be Yankee next year unless he curses out Big Stein - may be even then. Unless I'm missing something, Matsui isn't a free agent next year. He only has three years of MLB experience, so the Yankees could simply offer arby and he'd have to re-sign with them or go back to Japan. He has an out clause I believe to become a free agent in his contract, but from what I remember it isn't an issue since he doesn't want to leave. Thanks. That's too bad.

That's kinda my point though... we score more runs for Maddux, so who cares what his ERA is? Is he pitching better than Z or Prior? I would say no. But when he's on the hill, he wins. If I was a GM of another team, there's little chance that I would pay Maddux, because there would be no way to tell what kind of run support my team would give him, but clearly, in Chicago, the offense scores more runs for him and he gets the job done. You could have the lowest ERA in the business, but if your team doesnt score for you, you don't win, and for some reason, certain pitchers just can't get run support. Take a look at Clemens. He has literally pitched better than anyone in baseball this year, but what does his team have to show for his microscopic ERA? I feel like this argument is like saying that the Cubs have the best offense because they have the highest avg. Again, Maddux is overpaid, but so are a lot of Cubs, by much greater margins imo. If he continues to win, why does anything else matter?

I didn't even know that Maddux had a side in this. Who is dumping on Maddux? Nobody faults him for signing the most lucrative contract available to him. I love Maddux. I think the guy is a consumate professional. I still harbor a somewhat unhealthy grudge that the man was ever let go. I supported bringing him back and even argued that the risk was low that he would deteriorate too badly if they brought him back for a couple of years. I really don't understand where this post is coming from with respect to the balance of this thread. I freely admit that he has contributed more to Cub wins than I have, or, frankly, any other person on this board. But, how in the world is that relevant? Finally, I think it is inaccurate, and a little unfair, to suggest that just because people don't live in Chicago that they are disconnected with the Maddux signing. If you and/or others have received an emotional boost or nostalgic attatchment from Maddux's return, good for you. Criticism of the deal or lamenting of his declining numbers shouldn't take anything away from that. At least thats not my design or intention. JC, I certainly wasnt attempting to take away from your contributions or loyalty as a Cub fan. I think you and other non-Chicagoans have made great strides and some excellent points and contributions on this board and I for one am grateful that we have points of view from people outside of the Chicago media's reach for some different insight. I think the point of the post was that while he's making more than he's worth, in the end, he gets the job done. It's certainly no problem that we're discussing this (hence, the purpose of a discussion board), but some of us feel that there are more important problems at hand, namely our abysmal outfield, the future of the infield, the bullpen and a manager who refuses to follow any logic whatsoever.

I don't know why everyone is always knocking Thome... According to Dave Otto, he's "country strong". :lol:

It depends on who you get to replace Lee. In my hypothetical where we get Overbay as well, you don't lose much defense at 1B. CPatterson (or anyone else), do you know anything about Overbay's reach? I'm a pretty big fan of his, but I don't know much about his defense. Would you consider him to be a gold glove candidate?

Wow, A-Rod and Vlad look pretty at home in Cubbie blue...

Way to go Serena. Great post. Look, I've read Moneyball, it's a great book, but context is very important - that book is about building a team, and when you're looking for a new pitcher, you're not going to look at wins as much as youre going to look at a stat such as WHIP or ERA. I think we can almost all agree on that. However, to say that wins don't matter during the course of a season (or 2) with a team is foolish in my opinion. I could honestly care less if a guy had a low ERA and BAA but didn't win. Does that mean that the pitcher with the most wins is the best pitcher in the league? that he's the automatic Cy winner? No. But one thing is clear to me Maddux is a winner, he always will be a winner, and despite the fact that yes, he is a little bit overpaid, he's probably the least of our problems.