I'll play along... In order for Cobs to be considered as being in the race by 9/15, they would have to go on a Dodger-like tear where they win 17 out of 18 or so. During Baker's nearly 4 years as manager, the longest win streak Cobs have had is 7, IIRC. We do have a top-5 SP, but after that top-5 SP, we have nothing near the potential for consistency you would require to sustain that kind of run. Not to say that Mateo hasn't been very encouraging, and that Hill has performed better of late, but can you envision our SP pitching well enough over a 3 week stretch to only lose 1 game? I can't, and nor do I think our offense is potent enough to be able to absorb the occasional disaster start by O'Malley, Hill, Mateo, Marmol and Guzman, and that's not even bringing Rusch into this. We couldn't even run off that kind of streak with Wood, Prior, Z, Clement and Maddux as our rotation, AND with a much better offense in 2004. So I don't think it's possible, because even if the stars alligned and we did rip off a 17 of 18 type streak, there's a real chance we'd still be 6-7 games back even after all that, because nearly the entire league is ahead of us. What I think is possible is the team getting to within 5-10 of .500 by the end of the season, which is a shame, since this division was really, really winnable, and we were not able to field the proper team to take advantage of a weak dog of a NL.