CubDad4Ever
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Point of clarification. According to the Braves model . Pitching paramount, everything else can be aquired after you are strong there. I think that lends strength to the "right track argument" You dont have to buy the Braves way and they started out as an offensive organization that realized pitching wins. I dont deny the offensive arguments , many want to come back to . Im addressing the book, the braves plan and the fact Hendry has done some good. That is a fact. Whats open to debate is how it shakes out . None of you or i are all knowing enough to answer that one utill it plays out. God Bless and thanks again for the insight Coach L.
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Goony , my goal is not to diminish your angst, most days i have enough trouble knocking back my own . I could be wrong but the current set up with Hendry GM , Dusty manager , right or wrong has been together since 2003. MacPhail has been part of this equation also , I take it your referring to him in relation to 93. DUDE i may need you to pull me back off the ledge if the cubs stink this year and they are playing two guys with sub 300 obps. I might change my handle to Punch Dustys Ticket. The point is the year must shake out to see if any progress in the plan is showing . God Bless and i feel your pain brother Dave L
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Thanks for the heads up . Can i link it via net from Cali. God Bless Coach L
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Some good points by both of you. Gooney i have to respectfully disagree with your labeling of context as accepting mediocrety. Context when long term planning must be taken into consideration. I am by nature and job extremly competitive, but given that context i have learned through many mistakes in 23 years of coaching that paitent sticking to a plan is both difficult and necessary. Im not saying Hendry has aced his jog or wont or should not get fired. I think he has done an excellent job in producing pitching prospects through the variety of channels available. He has also struggled to meet some of the obvious offensive needs. I still think the team is on the right track . I am very realistic in knowing they may not get the time they need to finish the job. Pressure to win based on years of frustration we all feel. Management faces a difficult challenge in making changes without panic or gross devation from their plan. I dont know how it will work out . But i as i have since 1970 be watching with passionate interest. Thanks for the great insight guys. God Bless. Coach L
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Dead on, in my opinion Tiger, Its is amazing how many misses we have had over the years when drafting position players . No wonder Hendry emphazies Pitching aquisitions. God Bless and well put Tiger
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Sully , if you look again at my post , i agreed with you on that point. I said we would be better served to have that situation. I believe that is why Hendry targeted Frucal and Tejada. Also that is why Cedeno will get first crack. I guess we were preaching to the choir. God Bless and points well taken Coach L
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Good Points guys. I do think we need to do two things. Let this year and next shake out. The context we evaluate it in is also important. The cubs were coming off 2 90 plus loss seasons when Hendry took the reigns with Dusty. ( i know he was farm director) This run has been the best 3 year run since the early 70,s. The Braves in the book so far preach the following tennents. 1. Take HS pitching in the draft. Always get back pitching in a trade. Use Tryout camps to get a jump on evaluting hs talent. Be paitent with system in general , dont panic. Be paitent with pitchers in system ( draft make up as well as tools) make pitchers learn to pitch (increased pitch repirtoire, handling loads) while not worrying as much about their numbers early on. Hire more scouts , instructors and coaches. Stay away from Free Agents. Sacrifice a season or two if necessary , dont stray from the plan. Some of this Hendry does to a T. His emphasis on pitchers has paid dividends. Where do you guys think we stand according to this plan. I love your input. Im still only 120 pages into the book (crappy need to have a job) God Bless and thanks Coach L
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Sully , good points and i will get to the crux of the book and its applications to the cubs . (based on what i have read so far . As far as my including the A,s i believe i used them as a very necessary reference point. The book goes after moneyball . Head to head comparrison is both appropriate and necessary given the fact moneyball attacked scouting with the same fervor. I am not even close to a scout oriented person. I stick to the facts. I actully was so pissed after the cubs blew game 6 in 2003 , i blasted my wifes antique table with a soccer ball. ( nice work by me) . I blamed baker for all evils . I am acutally more inclined to numbers. But as a high school coach and mentor of athletes , i realized i was going against what i use , which is all modalites of analysis in a non emotional fasion. I digress. This book is giving me a great concept of what i alread felt . Hendrys is totally using the Braves model . I will write more details later . I have to go to class. Sorry again for the times i have engaged in being to argumenitive. My faith always brings me back. God Bless you all. Thanks for your input to Vance . you are always an enjoyable read. Coach L.
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Sully my friend , you could very well be correct . I have been defending Nefis value as a defender and starter equal to that of many teams that have won big. Those are facts. This is however is my deepest desire as a fan . I hope Cedeno is better than Nefi. I think he will be the starter. I agree we would be better served , if we could find a top defender at ss who brought more on the obp end. Thanks Sully and God Bless Coach L
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Nice try, i wont get in a pissing match with you, I will feel as free to express my views as anyone else on this board. If you dont wish to read them or they aggrevate you dont read them. God Bless you indeed . Thats why i use the words i chose and not the ones my foul human nature wanted to use. May your day be Blessed CoachL
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No my friend , are you fearful someone might spoil your narrow range of analysis . Maybe a bit harsh , but fitting given your response. Stick to the facts not sarcasm. God Bless Coach L
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New book by Bill Shanks, Profiling scouts as the reason behind the unparralled success of the Atlanta Braves (no team in pro sports has won more flags in succession) It takes on "moneyball " hardcore. Dealing specifcally with "player makeup" evalution process and modalites and tools they utilize . Their develoupment process for their farm is also discussed . They flat out say they were offended by moneyballs narrow view, and Their sample size of success blows the A,s out of the water. I personnally argue , as i did when defending balance in evaluation think the truth lies in between the two books. Im only 100 pages in , I will detail any other info i feel is germain to the discussion . Its nice to read another view after as many great numbers related books as i have consumed in the past two years. This book should spark some necessary discussion between the scouting and numbers based analysis community. Both have value. God Bless you all. Coach L
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IMB is it , sorry bud i will try not to distract you with poor typing. Im often in a hurry in my job. I will try to simplify my point. The athlete not on the team ( rookie or otherwise) will to some people always seem like the better option than the known quantity. Im not talking about Macias vrs AndyMarte. A careful evaluation of the unknown including metrics such as durability , make up , defense , coachability all need to be looked at. I hope this was succinct and informative IMB. May God Bless both our days. Coach L
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San Jose , that is one of my biggest pet peaves, Newer is always sexier than known. That is a universal human bias ( as much as there can be one) The real problem lies in the historically riduculous ability of the cub brass noe Dusty to develoup postional talent . 1991 how bad is that and Doug Glanville to beat .Thank God Hendry , fleeced the Marlins and the Pirates . God Bless Coach L
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CubinNY, dont worry about debate , thats half the fun of following your team. I like your thoughts on rf , i think we had to try to let a cost efficient potentially numerically sound (murton) play lf. I still think Juan is a much more proven option and speed is added slug as well as subtracted obp (stolen base wise). Besides the fact micheals has yet to show full season metrics at 30 (goes against most baseball history) I dont know defensivley what he would be like in cf. That being said , i like your creativity in thinking of another plan. We all have to see how it shakes out. God Bless and thanks for the punctual answer. Coach L
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CubinNY, I was curious as to who and how you would have filled cf leadoff. Obviously Hendry tried to procure Frucal. God Bless and thanks for the input Coach L
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San Jose , thats some of the same stuff i have read. I dont think this debate is that toxic. Vance i will take the road God wants me to take which is humilty. Thats why i put it at the end of each Post. I disagree with you on some points but i agree on others. I definetly laugh , but am impressed with the level of passion we all have. If i have offended you and im sure in my lust to prove a point , i have engaged in hyperbole, sounded pious and sterotyped some here. That being said peoples absoultes in their responses have show their built in human biases. We all have them and its no sin to admit it. I hope the board can continue to debate some new and interesting subjects. Although in no way do i have the right or think i do to dictate subject matter. May God Truly Bless us all. Thanks for the lively debate. Gods Peace Coach L.
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I believe i just did relating to aspects of stolen base success rate. Just one example of what im talking about. You guys have know idea how biggoted you sometimes come across as. Ive gotten several private messages staking how many people agree. Thats not why i am here. I actually started in your corner of thought . Overly emotional (self serving jack ass ?) at every comment Dusty or Hendry made. The proof lies in the pudding > If this team does not get where it needs to Dusty will be canned . Thats professional athletics my friend. Pandoras Box , Please. You guys talk game about stats , until your called on a point like the SB ratio or limited sample size, durability as a metric. Then you respond emotionally. Dont gang up on me please , i might cry. God Bless Coach L
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After ronny cedeno rapid assension , following his placement on the 40 man. (Despite poor offensive metrics) I have tried to look for potential latin popouts in the same catagory. Reyes the catcher comes to mind. Great defender - switch hitter , his offensive numbers have been poor, but again im curious because of players like ronny. It will be intersting to see how he handles a more pitcher friendly league this year. His D is outstanding at an obviously critical defensive position. God Bless Coach L
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I have as much or more to support myself as you will ever have. Paul Depodesta , got canned because he tied himself so closely to only statistical analysis that he lacked the ability to effectively be a mangement person. People who cannot communicate on all levels are poor management people. You support the same tired smack all the time . Dusty dumb-stolen bases bad. ( by the way the latest number for success rate is 66 not 75 because Depo was found to be blowing smoke on his 3-1 ratio OBP value over Slug. Its more like 1.6-1.8/ Therefore 66 percent. I bring that up because pinheads read one book (maybe not you vance) and quote a stat like 75 % .They then start devaluing the 4-5 extra runs a Juan creates and call him slappy. Sloppy research , calling things absolutes numbers wise and then sterotyping is exactly what goes on this board. I will go fact for fact with you and love it . Talk about condeseding attitudes. I know i struck a chord , by the tone of your response. This board needed some non boot licking people. Throwing a couple of stats out there and then acting pious does not impress me in the least. Just because i disagree does not make me mad at you , so quit throwing terms out like slanderous . Talk about buying your own BS. God Bless and have at it
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Vance it could be , but i dont think its the case. The ferocity of your remarks shows two things. Your not confindent in your facts and you buy your own bs. Nice try on the spelling and grammar. My handwritting is also sloppy. But the boys in my family are student athletes with degrees from stanford , cal ,and Occidental College . Being around intelligent student athletes taught me one thing. Great people dont cry and proclaim things , they are confident in themselves and also realize the sun does not rise or set on their behind. You right some cool stuff sometimes . sometimes your stuck in a rutt. To deny that would make you less than human. Im probably ten times worse than you. But i can laugh at myself easlily. Use your talent more proficiently. God Bless and keep writing . Coach l
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Tigger, when i hear you discribe guys like Hughes in such narrow terms and hear your evaluations of guys like perez only consider obp. When i hear people take a man like baker and live off a throwaway quote like "walks clog the bases " It does not take a MIT grad to connect the dots on thought process. Like most people you try to fit certain stats in a context to fit your chosen hypothesis . No problem , i dont take it personally. I just dont buy what your cookin. Hint if your going to argue that someone is pegging a certain way. Evaluate Baker the same way. Im not here to tell you how to act or think. But i do feel free to call Shaningens when i think i see them. God Bless Coach L.
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I am very curious , how 2nd base is going to shake out. I too am very leery about a Nefi-Cedeno middle. Defense very strong , offense a chance to be scarry low. Nefis value lies in his abilty to play everday short with great D from a backup positon and spell 2nd. With our payroll , i had no problem with that. However as i said , i would not be excited about a nefi , cedeno middle. Both of them carry greater value as shortstops. God Bless Coach L
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The affomentioned were not top of the order players impacting an offense. The arrogant way the speed game was approached was second only to the managers are stupid and should be taught how to stand in the dugout . Arrogance goes hand in hand with forgetting details that could help win those small sample size games. It all counts and needes to be weighed or the viewpoint is too narrow. God Bless Coach L
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A proper approach at the plate using speed will lend itself to a higher BABIP Ichiro and Jaun use bunts and drawn in infields to help improve angles which increase infield hit totals . That is why juan is sitting at .355 for his lifetime OBP. Speed on the bases , even if you want to take the moneyball rates of 75 for a season are met. Juan P at 79% last year and 74 for his career are more than in the mix for the seasonal sample size. The total disdain for basestealing preached by beane in that book was moronic at worst , not considering small sample size situations (key games) short series Opps I forgot that while guys like Juan P ,scotty Pods and BiP Roperts were busy winning world titles. Billy Ball has yet to reach the pinnicle contest. I know and understand the currancy of baseball is outs as well as you. But again my speaking of metrics goes beyond OBP into the metrics i just spoke of . God Bless and thanks Coach L.