Hacking Out Machine

Hitting a ground ball to 2B or SS, and sometimes even 3B and 1B wouldn't score the run as well? I'd argue there are no numbers to support your side of the argument either. That is the beauty of it all. Striking out guarantees you that no advance or runs can be scored. So, putting the ball in play gives you a better chance than striking out. Therefore, more times than not putting the ball in play will give you a better chance of success than striking out. I'm not really trying to prove anything. I'm simply asking for the number to support your statement. Putting the ball in play also, more times than not (as related to strikeouts) will lead to more than one out at a time. Here are some numbers to support his statement. Striking out with runner on 3rd = 0 % chance of runner scoring Putting the ball into play with runner on 3rd = >0 % chance that runner will score from 3rd. :lol: Prime example of a strikeout being worse than a regular vanilla out, was last night when Cedeno was batting with runners on 1st and 3rd and only 1 out. If Cedeno makes contact the worst thing that could happen to him is that he would ground into a double play and the inning is over. (Big deal the pitcher was coming up next) I'm sure most people would rather take the odds that Ronnie would either beat out a double play or get a SF than having him strikeout and leaving it up to Marshall to get the runner home. The problem with being obsessed with avoiding the strikeout is when it's an overall strategy, not just an outcome of a certain scenario. When there is a man on 3rd and less than 2 outs, yeah, you want to make contact. But when you are so deathly afraid of striking out that you hack at the first pitch anywhere close to the plate just to "get it in play", you start to make outs at a breakneck pace. Instead of waiting for a pitch they can drive, weak hitters like the ones the Cubs seek out are so afraid of striking out that they hack at everything they can reach, resulting in weak contact, oftentimes early in the count. That's why we see starting pitchers throw complete games with 85 pitches thrown against the Cubs. In my opinion, the anti-strikeout paranoia is one of the biggest problems the Cubs have. it's almost as if they assume death if they are called out on strikes. Note that the Cubs as a team are among the toughest to strikeout in baseball. We see what dividends that has paid.

Chucky.... Welcome. I enjoy yor comments on TDD

Bruce, you are fighting the good fight, and for that we salute you! I'm not sure if people realize just how bad a .282 OBP is, let alone .222. Do people realize that making outs is bad? When asked directly, what do the Cubs respond with? The organization has to know that an offense built around occasional random event of hitting a single isn't going to work. If you don't walk and you don't hit home runs, it takes at least 3 hits in an inning to score a run. To have a big inning requires 4 or 5. Even good teams have a hard time stringing that many hits together. But when you throw in a walk, an extra base hit, maybe a homer, you see why teams like the Sox consistently overcome deficits.

Perusing his stats at ISU, he didn't really fool any hitters while he was there...

Man....we can't catch a break in Chicago. We've got the faceless corpoate ownership. (Tribune Corp-Bad), and we've got the familial ownership. (McCaskeys-Bad, Wirtzs-Catastophic.)

A .317 OBP is absolutely terrible. Jacque is doing just as much, if not more, than should have been expected out of him. Currently he's on pace to post his highest BA since 2003, his highest SLG since 2002 and his highest OPS since 2002. Like srbin84 brought up, if he ends up with the 31 HR, and 95 RBI's he's on pace to put up, both of those will be career highs. You want to complain about OBP, complain about Ronny Cedeno who is walking even less that Jones this year and isn't even close to Jones in the power numbers. There are bigger fish to fry here goony. Ronny Cedeno makes the minimum and is playing a position where offensive success is a bonus. Jones is making $15M over 3 years and plays a position where above average offense is essential. His long term presence hamstrings us in any attempts to upgrade the offense because he takes up a position where helpful talent is much more readily available. Cedeno needs to be held accountable, for sure, but not so much as Jones does, as the Cubs have much more to lose if Jones tanks than if Cedeno does.

Not sure if we can raid other organizations with guys in place, but I think Mark Shapiro is among the best out there as far as GMs go. Not sure what DePodesta is doing nowadays, but I'd obviously love to have him as well. As for staffs, evaluating managers is very difficult. Anyone who understands platoon splits and is aware of what situations his players excel in/suck at would be good by me. We don't currently have a guy like that, obviously. It seems like Eric Wedge has an idea about that. Actually, I'd probably look to see what National League team ranks last in sac bunts and go after that manager. Bruce Bochy is another one I like. With pitching coaches, it's Leo Mazzone and everyone else(although Baltimore hasn't responded well to him so far). The Triple A pitching coach in Indianapolis(Pittsburgh's affiliate) has done a great job with their young pitchers. (Snell, Duke, Gorzelany, etc) Hitting coach: anyone other than the "hack first, ask questions later" crew we have now. Will Clark? (Just kidding) This is a very good question....I'm interested in what replies you get!

Is anyone in this thread saying that it is? Yes. And more than once. I never said this was a terrible move or one that shouldn't be done. To me it is a so what trade at best, and a what were they thinking trade at worst. But he comes cheap and if he helps the bench great, but the Cubs could have used the help about 8 weeks ago. I think this is better than a so what trade. Haiston(like everyone else on our bench) is among the worst players in baseball. No power, no on base skills, bad baserunner, mediocre at best fielder. The only thing he provides is the flexibility for Dusty to have an out machine at several different spots in the field. Although Nevin is by no means great (.160 .244 .197 from 4/26-5/22), he does provide something in the way of power and some on base skills. I have a feeling he might actually be used correctly, (1b now, RH off the bench when Lee comes back) since the organization is currently obsessed with defense. It's unlikely they would send Nevin out there at any position other than 1b. I think this is somewhat of a breath of fresh air. It seemed like any person with half a brain could figure out that their bench was an embarrassment. It's nice to see that the GM has acknowledged that as well. Now if we can just get the manager to understand that this idea of putting your lowest OBP guys at the top of the order might not be a stroke of genius.

Arizona is currently leading their division and are trotting out Juan Cruz and Claudio Vargas in their rotation. Both have done ok, but they might feel it's a matter of time until things catch up with them there. I would be very surprised if they weren't very interested in Maddux. They have probably the best system in MLB in terms of premium talent, and some redundancy in the system. This would be a good match for the Cubs, as long as Hendry doesn't ask for Orlando Hudson or Russ Ortiz in return. I think most of the bullpen arms would generate interest, especially Williamson/Eyre/Howry. We might as well cut bait with the high priced guys now, rather than cursing them in two years when they're over the hill and still on the books for ridiculous money.

Of course! There probably should be an investigation into Bynum's power surge.

My guess is they probably aren't sac bunting enough, or aren't gritting their teeth hard enough.

When Lee comes back, and Prior comes back, and Barrett returns from suspension and Wood gets that arm replacement sugery, and we acquire the '90's Braves starting rotation, we might get back to .500 by September 15th.

Whenever the Cubs play 6 games against the Bucs over a 2 week period.

I loved Hudson's quote in the MLB.com Braves wrapup on Bynum's homer today. He said something like, "He's a good kid, but I almost passed out when he hit that homer" Bynum was in Oakland's organization when Hudson was there, so he knows him. It's always nice to have opposing pitchers have so little respect for your players that they will "pass out" when they do something positive. That makes 16 home runs in more than 2500 professional ABs. By all means, let's get him in a corner outfield spot immediately!!! Ans by all means, lets hope he puts up a .275 .292 .350 line for a month so we can sign him to a 2 year extension!

.256/.316/.408 is short of mediocre in my opinion. I'd say from April to May they went from awful to helplessly putrid. I

I don't know if you or anyone else has noticed this, but to me, I think Pierre has lost a step down the first base line. I can't tell you how many times I have seen a relatively slow chopper on the left side of the infield from Pierre where I was thinking, " Oh, he'll beat that out" only to see him get thrown out by a step and a half. He just doesn't seem that fast to me, at least not as fast going down the line as he looked in Florida. (If there are any strat-o-matic veterans out there, I'd tag his speed right now at about 1-14). He's still proficient at getting good jumps in his basestealing, so his % is good there, but it looks like he's slowed down speed wise. He is currently leading all of MLB by a wide margin in groundouts. He has about 90, with Luis Castillo ranking second with about 70. I'd guess that his inability to beat out a lot of these hits might have something to do with his low average. The fact that he never walks coupled with his awesome outmaking ability has resulted in this terrible situation we now face with him.

MacPhail has confirmed our worst fear. We root for a team that is absolutely terrible. Worse than that, the people in charge of the team have no idea why the team is terrible. Worst of all, the entire minor league system is stocked with players reflecting the same broken philosophy that has got the team where it is in the first place. It's seriously time to look for something else to do in the summer, unless you enjoy watching what soon could turn into a hybrid of the Royals and the Pirates.

In my opinion, previous moves indicate that Hendry listens. The media and local fans have been crying loudly over the past couple years about 2 things: Bad bullpen and lack of a leadoff hitter. Over the offseason, Hendry went after both with such a bloodlust that he traded away half the farm system for the leadoff guy and paid amounts that almost all observers considered borderline insane for Howry and Eyre. You might say he did this to cover his arse. If you make all the moves that the angry mob wants you to make, when they backfire, you can say, "Hey, everybody in the city screamed that we needed a leadoff man, so I looked in the "proven veteran reputation rankings" and saw that Pierre was best available so I did what it took to get him. You can't criticize me no. I did what you asked." He could say something similar about Howry and Eyre. What we need now is for the OPS crowd to become the new angry mob. At that point, based on past experience, we might see some action. (who am I kidding?)However, this team is so engrossed in the absolute opposite of this direction that almost their entire farm system is loaded with players just like the dregs we have up in the majors. There is very little, if any, offensive talent. But we have a lot of guys who ocasionally hit aggressive singles, provide athleticism and run real fast.

There's a rumor that the Cubs are closely monitoring the rehab progress of Cristian Guzman in Washington, so they can finally achieve their dream of having the 5 worst hitters in baseball on the same team at the same time. Unfortunately, Rey Ordonez, Lenny Harris and Enrique Wilson couldn't be convinced to come back to make it an even bigger party.

The games seem to take 5 hours apiece as well.

It seems that you're complaining about the negative bashing of Cubs fans ... by bashing Cubs fans. The ones at Wrigley, anyway. If I'm being bashed, I don't really care whether I'm being bashed by a fellow "true Cubs fan" or Joe Shmoe in Schenectady. I'm sure they appreciated you helping them out. I hope I'm not crucified when I dare go to Coors Field despite not being a Rockies fan. 8-[ Sometimes I like seeing parks I haven't been to and I didn't realize that I was contributing to the national downfall of the home team's fanbase every time I set foot in one. Serena....I really need to apologize. Apparently, I've done a terrible job of making my point because what you are saying indicates that you aren't even in the same area code of comprehending it. That's my fault. I'm going to let this thread die it's overdue death.

Uh, actually, I go to a number of Cubs games -- I usually sit in the bleachers :shock: -- and am planning to catch the series in CO this year. Wrong example. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ How is this a wrong example? I said that of the people making the trip to Colorado(or wheever else for that matter) to see the Cubs on the road, the percentage of people IN THAT GROUP who are tue Cubs fans is probably higher than your average crowd on a Wrigley night game. You are a moderator on a Cubs website... a true Cubs fan for sure. You'll be in Colorado. The other Cubs fans there that day will probably be a lot like you. The fact that you'll be there actually illustrates the point. Look, I'm not trying to say that there aren't any knowledgeable fans at Wrigley because there are plenty. It's just that the national view of Cubs fans is that of a drunk 23 year old who doesn't care who wins, which isn't accurate. Maybe it shouldn't bother me, but it does.

During a Q&A session with one of the studio hacks, Gammons was asked about the Cubs and their struggles. I'm paraphrasing, but he said something like, "I don't know when the Cubs are ever going to figure it out. For the last several years, they've ignored on base percentage completely. They've been last in the league in OBP, or close to last the past several years, and this year they're last in on base, slugging, walks, RBI, etc." It was in a dismissive tone, which is rare for Gammons. He later softened and said they have a chance to get better when Lee comes back, but as constructed, have no chance of contending. No kidding. But hey, we hit a lot of aggressive singles!!!! And we are hard to strike out!!! And we're good at sacrifice bunting!!!! And Juan Pierre almost beats out a lot of routine grounders!!! And we have good clubhouse chemistry!!! Let the runs and wins commence!!! Oh, wait....

So people who go to Cubs road games are true Cubs fans but people who go see them at Wrigley are not? :? I'd say a larger percentage of the "road" fans are true Cub fans compared to the average home crowd, yeah. There is a plethora of tourists, neighborhood trixies and drunk-by-5 buffoons in your average night game crowd for example. How many of those people are showing up at a Cubs game in, say, Colorado? I'm not saying there aren't any knowledgeable fans at Wrigley, because there are. The growing smattering of boos you hear ever time Pierre hits a two hopper to the first baseman will tell you that. I'm saying that there are a lot of non-Cub fans at Wrigley that perpetuate the stereotype.

One thing that's always bothered me is the regularity in which CUBS FANS are criticized and characterized. I heard Aaron Rowand on the radio the other day. He was asked about the difference between Cubs and Sox fans. He mentioned that Sox fans won't go to games if the team stinks, they are paying more attention to the game, they care more, Cubs fans are more interested in getting drunk, etc. This is an accurate characteriztion of the people who generally attend games at Wrigley and Comiskey, but not CUBS FANS and SOX FANS. People need to realize that there is a difference between Cubs fans and people that go to Wrigley Field. The vast majority of people at a given game are at Wrigley more for the Wrigley experience than the game(obviously). I work for a company based out of California, and we had corporate visitors at our Chicago office almost every week. Since I lived in the neighborhood, had season tickets, and knew people who had more, I was the ticket guy. Every week in the summer, I was getting tickets for people because they wanted to go to Cubs games to see Wrigley. Are these people Cubs fans? No. I'd say that the Cubs are about the only team in baseball which you can't assume that patrons of the ballpark are actual serious fans of the team. Unfortunately, the general public looks at these people as the accurate characteriztion of Cubs fans rather than the droves of people who fill up parks across the country to watch the Cubs on the road, or the people who pay attention and really give a crap, like the people on this board. As a true Cubs fan, I just wish there was a distinction made, that's all. This might be a useless, time wasting post, but I wanted to get it off my chest.