Tracer Bullet

He's one of several opposing players that has expressed dislike of some aspect of the stadium. I don't get why this is such a big deal. Maybe the visitors locker room smells like crap. I have no idea. And if it does and some player doesn't like it, why can't they say so. How is it disrespectful? I realize that Wrigely, to Cubs fans and some other baseball fans, is a place worthy of honor and respect. But for many people, it's just a stadium. And if they think it stinks, big deal.

Why? Doesn't fresh garbage just mean that it's garbage that just got thrown out or taken to the dump? I don't understand why that's a problem.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/

Well, Torii career numbers aren't good, but he's been pretty good (by CF standards) several times and bad several times. He's been really good this year, so it's a great name to throw out there. He's got a .900 OPS! Well, like I said, he's very good his year. But those .309, .306, .312, etc OBP - those years were bad. Here's a good illustration of my point: '01 - .784 OPS (.306/.479). I don't care what position you play, a .306 OBP is bad. And even a .480 SLG doesn't make up for it's badness. It's better than say a .410 SLG, but it's still doesn't mean it was a good that season. '05 - .788 OPS (.337/.452). For a CF, that's average or better. The .337 OBP is nothing to write home about, but it's ok (probably near league average - I don't know and don't care to look it up, it's gotta be pretty close). And the SLG is pretty good for his position. I'd much rather have this year, than '01, and it's not b/c the OPS is .004 points higher.

PH already pointed this out, but I'd like to reiterate - that's a terrible comparison. Jones plays in an era of inflated offense and, at times, he's been bad compared to his peers (actually, he's frequently bad, but given this very narrow look at his abilities that we're discussing - facing RHP when viewed as a CF, even though he wasn't when all these numbers were accumulated - he's only been bad a few times). A .310 OBP is bad. I don't care what position or how stellar the defense (and I'm not convinced Jones is great in CF). Like I said several pages ago, it's possible to SLG enough to balance a bad OBP, I suppose. I don't know what that SLG would have to be, but certainly more than .465.

Are you really this dense? I've been looking at much more than the past 3 months and basing my argument on that. You're the one who says I'm putting all this emphasis on his last 200 PAs. I've said that 185 ABs isn't a great sample, but that past on his 3200 ABs against RHP, it's pretty clear that Jones can range from bad to great and it's not really close to the normal bell curve you'd expect with players improving through their peak and then coming back down. He's good one year, bad the next, great the next, etc. So if his performance year-year is random, you can't just look at his overall #s and expect he's going to match them, esp when he's been terrible for 3 months. Is he likely to improve some - yes, I've already said I don't think he'll have an OPS of .634 against RHP all year. But is it likely to jump 200 points to match his career #s? I don't think that's likely. And 3 doubles in 8 ABs isn't going to change my mind. It's a nice couple of games, but it doesn't mean much in predicting his performance for the next 3 months. 1. Thanks for the personal attack. 2. Are *you* really this dense? I've posted about a half dozen times in this thread that Jones has never once had a season with an OPS v. RHP of less than .775. Never. In 2007, there are 27 center-fielders that are currently on pace to qualify for the batting title. 11 have an OPS above .775, 16 have an OPS below .775. In 2006, of the qualifying center-fielders, 13 were above .775, 10 were below In 2005, 10 were above .775, 11 were below In Jacque Jones' very worst full season, he hit at a league-average level for center-fielders against RHP. He's never been bad in his career v. RHP. And repeating the same wrong argument over and over and over again doesn't make you right. 3. I keep insisting that you're placing too much emphasis on his first 200 plate appearances this year because there's absolutely no other reason to conclude that a guy who posted almost a .900 OPS v. RHP last year is somehow "unlikely" to match his career OPS of .825 against them, especially when he's only been under .800 twice. 1. It wasn't a personal attack, it was a question. And a fair one, I think. 2. You like repeating his OPS against RHP, but ignoring the fact that he has had horrible OBP's several times. And no, when you're OBP is .310, SLG enough to get your OPS near .800 does not make it ok. You sucked that year. I think the bolded part is exactly right and I'm glad you finally realized it. Reciting his worst OPS against RHP as if it were the final word on whether he sucked in a given year doesn't make it right. 3. Well, his OPS against RHP last year was about 60 points or so about his career average. His OPS against RHP in 3 months this season is 200 points below is career average. Is 200 PAs a big sample? Not really. But it does have some relevance to predicting immediate future performance (unlike 8 ABs, which has near 0 relevance). That fact, coupled with the fact that he's followed good years with bad years in the past leads me to conclude that there's a good chance he won't have an OPS of .825 against RHP in the 2nd half. It's apparent that we disagree and neither of us is going to convince the other, I just don't want you to mis-characterize my arguments (i.e., claim that I'm relying solely on this year's #s to predict his 2nd half #s).

HRam's my boy!

I'm reluctantly starting to agree. Jacque is solid against RHP, no matter whether people want to admit it or not. 3-8 with 3 doubles in his last two starts. No reason to start Pie at this point. Well, he went 3/8 in his last 2 starts? That's it, you've convinced me - Jacques is great against RHP and should start in CF from now on. All the thought and analysis I put into this question over the first 5 pages didn't take into account his last 8 ABs...and clearly, that's all that matters. You don't have to take an hour and analyze the numbers for everything. Jacque has hit the ball very well in his last two starts. Pie has sucked for a few weeks. If there was a righty starting today, why would you NOT start Jacque? Have you read this thread? b/c I'm not going to retype or cut & paste the posts (mine and others). I'm not going to search through 8 pages to find your reasoning for not wanting to go with the hot hand over the guy who has been awful for several weeks. Well, glad you're part of the discussion. Always nice to have people contribute that can't be bothered to read others' posts. Rather than taking the time to twice tell me that you're not going to re-type your reasoning that you came up with who knows how many posts ago, I imagine that you could've simply stated your reasoning in the same amount of time. But whatever, if it's too bothersome to formulate a response of more than two sentences, then that's your problem. A - You're apparently not much for reading posts, but if you look about 6 posts up, you'll see a brief summary of my argument in one of my responses to WB. B - Are you really mocking me for not wanting to take the time to retype arguments I've already made several times in this thread when the sole reason you want them retyped is b/c you're too lazy to skim through a few pages to find them. Seriously? That's incredible.

I'm reluctantly starting to agree. Jacque is solid against RHP, no matter whether people want to admit it or not. 3-8 with 3 doubles in his last two starts. No reason to start Pie at this point. Well, he went 3/8 in his last 2 starts? That's it, you've convinced me - Jacques is great against RHP and should start in CF from now on. All the thought and analysis I put into this question over the first 5 pages didn't take into account his last 8 ABs...and clearly, that's all that matters. So you care about sample size all of a sudden? Are you really this dense? I've been looking at much more than the past 3 months and basing my argument on that. You're the one who says I'm putting all this emphasis on his last 200 PAs. I've said that 185 ABs isn't a great sample, but that past on his 3200 ABs against RHP, it's pretty clear that Jones can range from bad to great and it's not really close to the normal bell curve you'd expect with players improving through their peak and then coming back down. He's good one year, bad the next, great the next, etc. So if his performance year-year is random, you can't just look at his overall #s and expect he's going to match them, esp when he's been terrible for 3 months. Is he likely to improve some - yes, I've already said I don't think he'll have an OPS of .634 against RHP all year. But is it likely to jump 200 points to match his career #s? I don't think that's likely. And 3 doubles in 8 ABs isn't going to change my mind. It's a nice couple of games, but it doesn't mean much in predicting his performance for the next 3 months.

I'm reluctantly starting to agree. Jacque is solid against RHP, no matter whether people want to admit it or not. 3-8 with 3 doubles in his last two starts. No reason to start Pie at this point. Well, he went 3/8 in his last 2 starts? That's it, you've convinced me - Jacques is great against RHP and should start in CF from now on. All the thought and analysis I put into this question over the first 5 pages didn't take into account his last 8 ABs...and clearly, that's all that matters. You don't have to take an hour and analyze the numbers for everything. Jacque has hit the ball very well in his last two starts. Pie has sucked for a few weeks. If there was a righty starting today, why would you NOT start Jacque? Have you read this thread? b/c I'm not going to retype or cut & paste the posts (mine and others). I'm not going to search through 8 pages to find your reasoning for not wanting to go with the hot hand over the guy who has been awful for several weeks. Well, glad you're part of the discussion. Always nice to have people contribute that can't be bothered to read others' posts.

I'm reluctantly starting to agree. Jacque is solid against RHP, no matter whether people want to admit it or not. 3-8 with 3 doubles in his last two starts. No reason to start Pie at this point. Well, he went 3/8 in his last 2 starts? That's it, you've convinced me - Jacques is great against RHP and should start in CF from now on. All the thought and analysis I put into this question over the first 5 pages didn't take into account his last 8 ABs...and clearly, that's all that matters. You don't have to take an hour and analyze the numbers for everything. Jacque has hit the ball very well in his last two starts. Pie has sucked for a few weeks. If there was a righty starting today, why would you NOT start Jacque? Have you read this thread? b/c I'm not going to retype or cut & paste the posts (mine and others).

Of course they have, they need a few more years to completely destroy his development and confidence so they can deal him for a couple crappy A-ballers. Also, this whole situation makes me wonder if the veteran problem we had under Dusty was really Dusty's fault or if he was just following orders. We got a new manager and the same things are happening. Of course it's quite possible it was Dusty's fault and Lou is just as bad as Dusty, but I have to wonder if it's almost all on Hendry instead. The same things are not happening. How can you even suggest this?? Marmol is closing (under dusty it would be Howry or Eyre, because they're the highest paid/vettiest). Theriot and Fontenot have gotten extended looks while Izturis rides the pine. Pie has started over Jones for quite some time now. I know many of these are obvious, but they wouldn't have been to Dusty. Sorry, not even close. Actually, Howry is closing. Marmol is pitching important innings, but he has 1 save from over a week ago. Howry has the last 3 save chances and picked up a W pitching in a tie game. Theriot got a decent amount of starts, had some struggles, and started getting benched frequently. Murton didn't last long and Pie's had 3 weeks of starts before getting spot starts. Better than Dusty? Maybe, hard to say, but the young kids aren't really getting time to develop (and it's not like they being replaced by great veterans, either).

I'm reluctantly starting to agree. Jacque is solid against RHP, no matter whether people want to admit it or not. 3-8 with 3 doubles in his last two starts. No reason to start Pie at this point. Well, he went 3/8 in his last 2 starts? That's it, you've convinced me - Jacques is great against RHP and should start in CF from now on. All the thought and analysis I put into this question over the first 5 pages didn't take into account his last 8 ABs...and clearly, that's all that matters.

In 3 of his seasons, JJ had OBP of .327, .310, and .294. I don't care where you play, that sucks. I'm not putting too much emphasis on his last 200 PAs, I'm putting some emphasis on the last 3 months and some emphasis on his roller coaster performance over his career. He's career stats look pretty good v. RHP, but he's had a couple really good seasons and a couple really bad ones. I just don't know what makes you so convinced this year is going to be a good one, given that it's started pretty darn badly. Maybe what scares me most is that JJ has frequently had below-average OBP, but made up for that to some degree with some pop. This year, he's horrible at getting on base and horrible at SLG. A .327 OBP is bad, but if a guy slugs .490 that year (against RHP) - you can deal. But he's not even slugging well this year. You can't pick and choose the parts of a player's performance record you don't like. I've already demonstrated that Jones has never before had an OPS v. RHP less than .775. Never. Not once. That does not suck for a CF. (And it's not even close to sucking) Rather than simply conceding a rather obvious point, you've decided to focus on OBP figures that Jones put up during past seasons. But I've already demonstrated that despite those relatively poor OBP numbers, he's neverthelss slugged enough to be an acceptable player (especially if his contemplated usage is as a CF). Focusing on Jones' OBP alone (and ignoring his adequate slugging in those years) is like saying that Derrek Lee's 6 home runs sucks. Again, he's never once had an OPS v. RHP lower than .775. To be sure, he's been brutal in 200 plate appearances this seasons. But based on those 200 plate appearances alone, you've concluded that it's unlikely that Jones will post a .734 OPS v. RHP in the second half, a number that is .041 points less than his previous WORST SEASON. By definition, that's placing way too much importance on his last 200 plate appearances. Your logic is confusing. I'm only allowed to consider only OPS in determining a) whether a player sucks, and b) how said player will perform in the near future. Well, I don't agree to play by the rules you have made up as our discussion played out, so I don't know what to tell you. OPS is a stat that's easy to calculate and generally a fair measure of a player's ability, though it has its faults. Many people who are much smarter than I think that OBP should be weighted somewhere between 2 (Neyer) and 4 (Tango Tiger) times more than SLG when calculating even a rough stat such as OPS. So if you have a below starter quality OPS, but an OBP of .310 - you suck, by my definition and that of several other people. His OPS may never have been below .775 - but he still sucked in at least 3 years. That's not to say it's impossible to overcome a bad OBP, I suppose if he SLG .600 with that .300 OBP, that'd be pretty good, but we're not talking anywhere near that. Oh, and to clarify - DLee 6 HRs do suck. We need him to be a power hitter and SLG a bit. He's made up for it mostly with doubles and an insanely high AVG for most of the year, but that aspect of his game sucks this year. But that's not to say he sucks this year. Why? B/c OBP is significantly more important than SLG and Lee's OBP is great.

The same Barrett had 5 guys steal out of 5 attempts the day before with Chris Young on the mound. One of those steals was Russell Martin stealing 3rd. Barrett was never good at blocking balls, but he's been absolutely brutal this year in regards to passed balls. And 3 guys did still bases successfully against Barrett last night, including Luis Gonzalez. So basically, he nailed 1 out of 9 in the last 2 games. He allowed Russell Martin to steal twice, Pierre 3 times, and Furcal once. We're really going to hold that against him? Especially when the Padres pitchers are pretty well regarded as not good at holding runners? The Dodgers steal a lot of bases - I think you're kind of cherry-picking here.

In 3 of his seasons, JJ had OBP of .327, .310, and .294. I don't care where you play, that sucks. I'm not putting too much emphasis on his last 200 PAs, I'm putting some emphasis on the last 3 months and some emphasis on his roller coaster performance over his career. He's career stats look pretty good v. RHP, but he's had a couple really good seasons and a couple really bad ones. I just don't know what makes you so convinced this year is going to be a good one, given that it's started pretty darn badly. Maybe what scares me most is that JJ has frequently had below-average OBP, but made up for that to some degree with some pop. This year, he's horrible at getting on base and horrible at SLG. A .327 OBP is bad, but if a guy slugs .490 that year (against RHP) - you can deal. But he's not even slugging well this year.

Jacque Jones posted an .886 OPS v. RHP in 2006 and has a career .825 OPS v. RHP. That's a considerable asset if it's coming from your centerfielder. Indeed, only 3 qualifying MLB center-fielders have an OPS over .886 (Pence, Hunter, and Granderson) and only four more are between .825 and .886 (Rowand, Ichiro, Sizemore, and Suzuki). Twenty MLB center-fielders are below .825, including Beltran, Lofton, Mathews, Jr., Hall, Dejesus, Vernon Wells, Cameron, Church, Winn, Crisp, Andruw Jones, Chris Young, and Damon. Jones obviously has had a terrible year to date. And he's not a reasonable option in a corner spot. But to describe Jones as "abysmal" when he's being contemplated as this team's CF is simply wrong. Obviously, he should never ever start against LHP, but he's more than a credible option in CF against RHP. Did you really just cut and paste this post? Or am I imagining things? Does that mean I have to go back and paste in my post about how unlikely it is that Jones is going to go from a .634 OPS against RHP to an .825 OPS against RHP overnight? That's just weird. Sample size. Why is it that you refuse to believe Pie's 2007 MLB performance is indicative of his true performance level or that Murton's 2007 MLB performance is indicative of his true performance level, but want us to disregard Jones' 4000 career plate appearances and instead look to his poor performance in his most recent 200? Sample size explains why you cut & paste one of your posts from earlier in the same thread? Oh, wait, never mind now I get it. Did you see my earlier post where I said 185 ABs isn't really a lot? Well, I did. I don't necessarily think Jones is going to OPS .634 against RHP for the rest of the season. But I've looked at Jones's 3300 career ABs against RHP and, like I just posted, sometimes he's good, sometimes he's great, and sometimes he sucks. This year, his OPS against RHP is .634 and, as TT posted, trending downward. I don't think it's unreasonable to think he's going to perform closer to .700 than his near-.900 OPS from last year. So why do you think it's more likely that in the next 3 months, he's going to suddenly OPS 200-300 points higher than he has over the last 3 months? And as to your Q about Murton and Pie - probably b/c they're both young. Murton did well in his first full ML season and his minor league stats indicate he could be good in the majors. Pie's minor league stats (and scout's opinions) indicate that he could be very good in CF. Does that mean they both will? No, but if you're going to choose between playing those 2 or playing some combination of Floyd, Pagan, and Jones, it's crazy not to play the kids.

Jacque Jones posted an .886 OPS v. RHP in 2006 and has a career .825 OPS v. RHP. That's a considerable asset if it's coming from your centerfielder. Indeed, only 3 qualifying MLB center-fielders have an OPS over .886 (Pence, Hunter, and Granderson) and only four more are between .825 and .886 (Rowand, Ichiro, Sizemore, and Suzuki). Twenty MLB center-fielders are below .825, including Beltran, Lofton, Mathews, Jr., Hall, Dejesus, Vernon Wells, Cameron, Church, Winn, Crisp, Andruw Jones, Chris Young, and Damon. Jones obviously has had a terrible year to date. And he's not a reasonable option in a corner spot. But to describe Jones as "abysmal" when he's being contemplated as this team's CF is simply wrong. Obviously, he should never ever start against LHP, but he's more than a credible option in CF against RHP. Jones is just broken at the plate right now. It's not as if he only had a .750 OPS against RHP in the first half, and is a good bet to turn it around. He's got a .635 OPS in nearly 200 PA's against them this year, and they're going in the wrong direction(OPS v. RHP by month: .662 in 79 April PA's, .630 in 65 May PA's, and .523 in 50 June PA's). Add in the fact that Pie is pretty capable against RHP too(.723 OPS despite his struggles, plus the minor league success previously posted) and a significantly better defender and baserunner, and it makes it an easier decision. What it boils down to is why gamble on Jones turning it around when you can make a similar(better?) gamble with Pie and enjoy the other benefits that choosing him provides(defense/baserunning, grooming future performance, having Soriano's buddy to thumb wrestle with, etc.)? Don't get me wrong - my preference is that they play Pie for those very reasons. I just think it's ridiculous to suggest that Jones is an abysmal option against RHP. (Also, all of BP's metrics rate Jones as an above average CF both this year and in his career) Also, I don't think it's a tremendous risk to assume that Jones will be significantly better against RHP in the second half. His extensive career track record likely ensures it. You're free to believe his 200 plate appearance sample is his new performance standard; I prefer to believe his 4000 career plate appearances are more telling. JJ could be significantly better against RHP in the 2nd half and still suck. A 100 point jump in OPS against RHP still makes it only .734. His career track record doesn't ensure anything. It shows that some years he's good against RHP, some years he's great, and some years he sucks. Unfortunately for us, this appears to be a suck year.

I just want to say I disagree with all of this, especially the premise that playing Jones (or anyone on the roster other than Pie, except maybe Soriano) in CF gives us a better chance to win this year. Jones was great against RHP last year. You know what? Jones sucks this year. Look at his career numbers, they jump from 1 year to the next. There's no reason to think that last year's #s are going to be repeated and every reason to think they won't.

Jacque Jones posted an .886 OPS v. RHP in 2006 and has a career .825 OPS v. RHP. That's a considerable asset if it's coming from your centerfielder. Indeed, only 3 qualifying MLB center-fielders have an OPS over .886 (Pence, Hunter, and Granderson) and only four more are between .825 and .886 (Rowand, Ichiro, Sizemore, and Suzuki). Twenty MLB center-fielders are below .825, including Beltran, Lofton, Mathews, Jr., Hall, Dejesus, Vernon Wells, Cameron, Church, Winn, Crisp, Andruw Jones, Chris Young, and Damon. Jones obviously has had a terrible year to date. And he's not a reasonable option in a corner spot. But to describe Jones as "abysmal" when he's being contemplated as this team's CF is simply wrong. Obviously, he should never ever start against LHP, but he's more than a credible option in CF against RHP. Did you really just cut and paste this post? Or am I imagining things? Does that mean I have to go back and paste in my post about how unlikely it is that Jones is going to go from a .634 OPS against RHP to an .825 OPS against RHP overnight? That's just weird.

As I said several posts ago - I learned long ago that most of what Lou said is BS - this isn't the only thing that upsets me. But comparing calling Pie the everyday CF and AJ the everyday CF is apples/oranges. If tomorrow Cox said "Jones is our everyday CF" do you think any beat writer in Atlanta would even write it down (actually, they might this year b/c Jones has been bad, but still)? That's different than calling up a guy from the minors and saying "he's our everyday CF" and then yanking him 3 weeks later. Seriously, did they expect him to hit .300 with 10 HRs in his first month? He's certainly struggled, but Lou needs a little foresight - he had to know that would happen. If Pie had played 2+ months and was hitting .200 and looked lost at the plate, would I be pissed at Lou for yanking him out of the everyday role? Not at all. But 3 weeks is a quick trigger. And whether it's good for his development or good strategy or whatever is beside the point. If 3 weeks ago the Cubs thought Pie was ready to be an everyday CF and that he should learn how to hit at this level, then the fact that what's happened over the last 3 weeks has apparently made them 2nd guess that decision makes me think either they're terrible at knowing when a player is ready (possible) or that they're terrible at decision-making b/c they don't stick with a decision long enough to know if it'll work (also very possible), or both.

Well, we have 5 other guys that can play OF. 2 can play CF (a 3rd - Soriano - could in a pinch), 3 could play either corner, though Soriano apparently has a death grip on LF. So OF eligibility is worthless to this team. He's a switch hitter? Great - he can suck from both sides of the plate. He can field his position - I think just how well he does that is up for debate, but Murton would be just fine in LF. He can run - that's also fine, though terribly overrated (all things equal, fast > slow, but many many many other things are better than being fast).

Floyd is/was more productive and hitting the ball much better than Murton. Murton's career line is 294/363/441. He's 25 and likely to improve. Floyd's career line is 279/359/485. That's only marginally better if any than Murton. He's 34 and likely to decline. This season, Floyd is hitting 292/363/398 which is lower than Murton's career line. Now in his first 119 AB's, I'll admit Murton struggled. I still think if given equal playing time over the course of a season, Murton would outproduce Floyd both offensively and defensively. Murton may or may not be the answer in rightfield for the Cubs, but he's as good if not better than what we've been using in that spot. I like Pagan more right now. He's been hitting the ball fairly well this year and covers ground in the outfield. One thing I don't understand is why some on this site are so impatient and want a winner now yet feel they should continue to let Murton play himself out of this horrible slump he's in. If he's not hitting the ball and getting on base (which he hasn't done this year) he brings absolutely nothing to the team. Might be, and I'm just guessing, the fact that Murton is 25 (i.e., about to enter his prime) and put up a better than league average OPS last season. Could be the red hair though. Or maybe he's got a real nice car. Really, who knows. No, actually I think it's the 800 OPS in his first full year in the majors thing. That and the guys we're replacing him with range from "average" to "suck."

If that's true, it's crazy. You'd rather have a 35-year-old with an injury history who's likely to top out at what he's doing now (sub .800 OPS) than a 25-year-old who put up better than league average in his first full season? You think Pagan is better? Seriously, you're just playing with me, right? That makes no sense. Absolutely none whatsoever. He wasn't a defensive liability in LF so I don't know where you're coming up with that comment. Defenisve liability in RF? He was so far this year. But in LF he's fine. And I have no idea where you find a correlation b/t bad team and good stats. Maybe that's true in a game like basketball where an average player can just keep jacking it up and put up good point totals on a bad team. But in baseball, with very few exceptions, each player's goal in each AB is the same - not making outs and the team is more likely to succeed if each player reaches that goal in each AB more often.