craig

Yeah, in a lot of years I'd be hoping that both Leal and Daury Torrez might skip up to Kane County and start there.

I'm a huge Arias fan. If healthy, I think he takes a rotation spot at Kane County and has a breakout season. Is there a thread elsewhere on projected assignments? Who do you think will actually be starting at Daytona? If they put Arias at Kane, that already seems potentially overloaded with either good arms or power arms. They'll either need to have piggy-back galore (Heh, maybe they should just have ten piggy-back starters and three relievers?) Or else some guys who really don't have much pro pitching experience may get sent to Daytona. Guys like Arias and Paniagua haven't pitched much, or Zastryzny or Skulina. But perhaps some guys who would normally start at low-A will get started at Daytona. Perhaps Arias will be one like that? Heh, if he's healthy and takes a rotation spot at Daytona and has excellent results, that would be even more of a breakout!

Wells, Geiger, and Jose Arias. My understanding is that Arias is healthy now, and that his fastball is really fast with sink. Could be a surprise.

If Tseng was good, and at Kane County, that could be a really interesting rotation. Tseng, Blackburn, Zastrysny, Skulina, Maples, Paniagua, Underwood..., there are so many really interesting names that they should be able to have a 5-deep rotation even if one or two skip to Daytona, or if Underwood gets held back for another year, or if Paniagua is relief or rotten. But that could have the capacity to have the best 5-deep rotation we've seen at any level in some time.

Good news that he's in camp. That hadn't been true as of Arizona Phil's reports. Also nice that he looks good to another observer. It's not just Badler.

Rosscup for me. K's and anti-HR profile give him a reasonable chance to be effective at the major-league level for a long time. Bruno's hit .360 at both small-sample stops, so I hope he's just a true-blue never-quit contact hitter. Defensively it was debatable whether he could be more than just a 2B before the injury. After arm surgery I think his chances of being able to throw well enough to play anything other than 2B/1B/DH probably haven't improved. He's got little/no power, he's a low-walk guy, and he K's a fair bit thus far. His BABIP thus far is .443. Hopefully the surgery will have worked 100%, that he'll be able to play reasonably big-league 2B/3B, maybe some SS and OF too, and be a super-utility guy. Hopefully the BABIP and average remain excellent, and eventually he settles into at least a reasonable amount of IsoP and IsoD.

Interesting, thanks. Maybe I'm wrong on that.

I've wondered that, too. My guess is extended spring. I think a couple of reasons: 1) Innings 2) Culture 3) Coaching 1. He was 18 when he signed last summer, and there were arm concerns in the industry. I think they'll want to be very careful with his innings. If he starts out in cold Midwest League, that will be something new. And he'd probably exhaust his innings limit well before end of August anyway. 2. This is his first year in the U.S. So, I'm not sure he's gotten the full "Cubs Way" indoctrination, or a whole lot of coaching. Kane County is primarily a "playing" league, not an instructional league. Every night a game, with half of those on the road with time spent in the bus. Mesa has more coaches and is geared towards more instruction. New players at Mesa also get more "classroom" time on Cubs Way and various game situations. So I think a lot of that might be better served in Mesa. They also have English and American-culture training for internationals at Mesa. Not sure if the English is meaningful for a Chinese kid, though, if everybody else in the class is Latin. So maybe that's useless for him. But still, Mesa is controlled and protected, dorms, food, exercise, everything. Easier for a new guy than figuring out where to go and what to order (healthy) in Beloit or Peoria. At Boise, the players live with host families; at Kane they are on their own. I'd think he'd be better served for his first season to have a single host family who'd help him out. Perhaps they'd be able to find a Chinese-speaking host family to make it a lot easier for him. Or maybe not. Maybe they don't want to have any of those "safer/easier-for-him" situations, and they'd prefer he was going out with teammates, ordering at MacDonalds, and learning to live more on his own.

I wonder how this year will go for Bruno. Q1: Did he have elbow surgery, or shoulder surgery? Was it regular old TJ? Given that he's still wearing elbow brace and isn't allowed to toss overhand yet, I don't think he'll play in any competitive throwing box-score games for months. Second baseman has to make throws from a lot of directions and angles. Given that minor-league teams carry 13 pitchers, I doubt they'll want to have a DH-only guy on a full-season squad. That would effectively limit the manager to having only one reserve catcher, one reserve infielder, and one reserve outfielder. So I expect he'll need to stay in Mesa for rehab until he's actually cleared to throw and play the infield. I'm guessing that if things go very well, he might be able to start playing with the rookie-league team in Mesa when they open at the end of June? I hope. Might just be a rehab year, and return to playing real full-season games next season.

Rosscup, Wells, and Geiger. 1. Rosscup K's tons, and HR's very little. Fair chance whatever enables that in the minors will also work, even if to a lesser extent, in the majors. Effective relievers can contribute for a long time. 2. Wells and Geiger have chances to be breakout guys this summer. Wells has extremely good movement, guys don't like hitting against him. If his velocity improves a bit, this being two summers since his injury, he might be a pleasant surprise. After the injury, I assume a lot of focus was on arm health. Perhaps being a year further removed increased attention can focus on his breaking stuff. 3. Geiger has a shot to hit a lot of HR's. He hit in some bad luck in Daytona. His offensive profile (power, contact, discipline..) was very balanced. If he can pump up his HR's, his stats could look really good. Perhaps comparable to Vogelbach with better defense? Obviously he needs to hit a lot of HR's, and we'll see. But he's got a shot to be a very professional hitter with serious HR power. .825 OPS in some bad luck in FSL. If the HR's jump, and he posts an .875+ OPS in AA at age 22, that might seem worthy of top-35 status.

Last year Amaya had a healthy .322 BABIP. But still hit only .252 overall (with a sub-.700 OPS). That happens when a quarter of your AB's aren't put in play, but you're hitting less than .050 on those AB, with a K/HR ratio > 20:1. To have a decent OBP and slugging, he'll need a decent batting average. For that to happen, he'll either need to get a lot more HR-hits, or else K a lot less. I expect both of those are possible, but it's not easy. It's kind of odd, because his scouting profile has been as a contact hitter with good bat skills. But he keeps striking out.

Nice to read some positive buzz on Hanneman. Hope he reinforces that with his play this year.

I liked Amaya and voted him top 15 last year, ahead of Christian Villanueva and Alcantara and some of the other then-popular guys like Watkins and Marco Hernandez. I know some scouts have liked some of his tools, so I hope that proves out. But I'm not really that close to voting for him here now after the year he had. A 2B-only defensively, who K's like a slugger and slugs like Barney. 109K/5HR, his high K's from 2012 got worse, not better. He'll need to have a massive BABIP to carry a decent average with HR:K ratios like that.

I'd keep going. If the mechanics of the poll allow, maybe drop it from 48 to 24-hour polls, to keep it rolling faster?

Wow, this is a close one. Five guys all with 11-15 votes at this point. After Az Phil's comments, I'm more comfortable now with Paniagua being in that group. (I know Phil's no scout.) But I'd worried that Paniagua was injured, so Phil's report that Paniagua's fastball/slider is "absolutely filthy" is reassuring. That he's in camp at all suggests that visa problems aren't a drag. Phil also a two-inning outing, which suggests he's in consideration for rotation usage. So I'm encouraged. Having really never pitched against hitters, it will be interesting to see how Paniagua does in real games, and whether he'll have any control whatsoever. As I write this, Hannemann leads by a vote. Do we figure him for Kane County? Daytona is a pitching-oriented higher league that should overmatch the inexperienced Hannemann. Still, I'd almost prefer he started there. An inexperienced hitter starting in cold, bad-weather Kane County is an invitation to start really badly. I'll hope he can stay afloat through April, and as May comes in and he sees some pro pitching, maybe he'll start to settle in and become productive. At this point I have no idea what to expect for him this year: 1. Walks: he walked very little in Boise cameo. Will that emerge as a problem, or not at all? 2. SB: Few guys, no matter how fast they scout, actually steal bases in volume in the majors. Will he steal a lot, or not? 3. Power: I have no idea what kind of game power to project for him. Will he be a Szczur? Or show pretty decent power?

Agree. They've got good facilities, and lots of coaching there. Perhaps the coaching is almost better without kids needing to fight through English phrasing and American accents.

The political unrest in Venezuela could impact in unpredictable ways. It's not clear that the Cubs or other teams will be able to run the VSL, or do so safely. It's not clear that the Cubs can get their players out of Venezuela; I believe they want to but haven't been able to, for the most part. If they are able to get some or all out, that might then complicate what they do with them. Does the Dominican facility have room for all of them? Not likely that it would impact, but perhaps a guy who is otherwise on the bubble might get sent over to Mesa just to relieve the congestion in their Dominican dorms and fields? Badler is really gung ho on Torres. I hope his judgment is accurate, and that Torres doesn't hit like Frandy. Anyway, thanks for the quotes and summaries, cal. I hadn't really been familiar with some of Tseng's details or numbers; those were interesting to read. Sounds like he might be a risk for arm problems. Seems like all of the Cubs Korean pitchers had arm problems. Hopefully he won't, and his slump will have provided a timely opportunity for the Cubs to get him while the market was low.

Easy vote for Torres. Dunston is still down the list for me. Nice K/BB, but Dunston's ceiling looks like a singles-hitting left-fielder. Hard for me to get very interested. Maybe some power will emerge eventually, and that's the hope. But seems like a low-level Szczur without the CF or the formerly perceived SB potential.

I like your vote and your logic, CubsWin. I'll duplicate your vote. Wells and Rosscup are the next two who miss the list for me.

I've got 6 or 7 guys I'm looking at here. Wells, Tseng, Hanneman, Torres, Rosscup, Paniagua. (Cabrera and Dunston are not close in my mind.) Tseng and Torres, both big-ticket guys who must have some serious possibilities, but haven't played in a box-score game yet. *Paniagua and Hanneman, similar in that they've hardly played, opposite in that both are old, and opposite in that Hanneman was so-so in his limited play, and Paniagua was flat awful in his cameo. But the possibilities are fun. *Paniagua seems like a guy who could elevate his stock sharply, with just a couple of good games. Heh, if he were to break with Daytona, and flash two starts with 97-mph reports and 9K/2BB/8IP combined, I'd view him very differently than I do now. And immediately value him above a bunch of guys we've already listed (and others that we'll elect for before he finally wins.) Wells might be another guy who could step up. He's got terrific movement on his ball, even if he wasn't fast last summer. But he's another year removed from his arm injury. If he's another year stronger, and has worked endlessly at strengthening that arm, maybe he'll have plus velocity to go with terrific movement and his overall fastball will be really good. If his arm feels good and his velocity is up, if he's also successful in AA at age 21 he might look like pretty valuable property. Rosscup's in a different profile, but minor-league hitters have always struggled to touch his stuff or to drive it. I don't see why the movement and deception that's tough on minor-league hitters won't also challenge big-league hitters. He's got a chance to be effective and valuable for a long time. Hmm. I'll vote Tseng/Hanneman/Torres for now. But I might change my mind, or have it changed for me, before the poll ends.

Thanks, cal. kind of fun to see all those names and rosters, I forget about a lot of them. Not sure how much Phil can tell from one day in camp with 160 guys. But his "limited activity" list was not extensive. I usually expect some surprises, but Phil's preliminary list didn't really have many. Looks like a lot of Venezuelans missing. Not surprising, but I wonder if/when they'll be able to come over, if at all, this spring.

I wonder if Bruno will only DH this season, or if his arm will be recovered enough to play some 1B and 2b? I thought there was some twitter or something back around Thanksgiving in which he was just starting to do super-light toss, so I'm kinda doubtful that he'll be ready for full-go defensively yet.

He got picked off yesterday.

I know their has been some intermittent Contreras comments in earlier poll threads. Could somebody pro-Contreras articulate what we're hoping from him? Or, maybe I'll try a pro-con, and you can suggest improvements on that. Pro/hopeful: 1. He's a catcher, and we've got none. Since starting catchers don't play every day, and also play the most injury-prone position, even if Contreras is never more than a backup C, he might still end up play quite a bit and being pretty important. 2. He's got a strong arm and had decent numbers in terms of catch-and-throw SB/CS. He was kinda bad in terms of catcher/blocking, with lots of errors, passed balls, and wild-pitches allowed. But he's new enough to the position where with time we're still hoping he'll end up being both a good receiver and a good thrower. 3. He had a .742 OPS without high BABIP. Offensive possibilities. 4. He hit 11 HR in only 310 AB, in a low-HR league, while starting the year at age 20. A little age-based power development, prorating from 310AB to 500+ like an every-day big-leaguer gets, and maybe he might be a 20-HR guy? 5. His hitting improved a lot. From .673 to .744; from 3 HR to 11 HR. All while jumping from offense-friendly Boise to Midwest League. That suggests a significant improvement trajectory. If he continues on that trajectory, especially since the competition level is a lesser jump from Kane to Daytona than it was from Boise to Kane, his numbers could get pretty interesting. 6. His BABIP was .280's. If those had been .320's instead, his average and OPS would both look more attractive. 7. His plate discipline improved a lot. BB/K/IP went from 11/54/249 (very low BB's) to 26/66/310 (fairly reasonable ratios). Cons: He hit only .248; a .744 OPS isn't that hot; he's really raw and kinda bad as a receiver; while he hit 11 HR's, he had only 16 other XBH; he'd been bad (.600's OPS) previous two seasons; he K's a lot and previous year didn't walk much at all; scouts haven't pumped his power potential. Will be interesting to see if he continues to progress steadily or dramatically. Or if he'll revert to sub-.700's OPS this year, without dramatic improvement defensively.

They were clearly not cheap. Around the turn of the century they were huge spenders (Bobby Hill draft, Prior draft and then following pup that mega-spend on a significant overslot on Sisco; Patterson was an expensive sign; Brownlie draft where they just kept spending and spending and spending; they went repeatedly with HS expensive high picks (Harvey, Vitters….). The massive Samardzija draft, and then they spent a massive overslot on Huseby, and had some other big tickets. It's also fair to say that they didn't overslot/superslot as much as might have been desired in a couple of drafts. Brett Jackson draft, they didn't. As noted, Wilkens has suggested that he'd have preferred to pay millions superslot on Wieters rather than slot Vitters. If "cheap" means having had a couple of drafts where they mostly paid slot with a million or less of superslots, rather than superslotting by multiple millions every draft, then by that somewhat unusual definition a couple drafts were "cheap". If "cheap" means sub-slotting, they were *never* ever cheap overall. Simpson I'm still convinced was totally a scouting pick by Wilken. He said so, at any rate, the account seemed quite proud of that selection. And they did then subsequently do a while bunch of overslots subsequently (Sczcur; Golden; Wells; then a whole bunch of HS/JC overslots from rounds 8 on), so that that draft wasn't overall cheap either. Could they have spend more in some drafts? Sure. But they were never cheap, they often spent like crazy, and the failures of the draft were absolutely never for lack of dollars.