craig

Interesting that Martinez-G is getting start. Not sure that means anything, other than may as well give the best young prospect careful, controlled, scheduled innings. Relievers like Palencia and Little were starting through AA also. In a sense, 1st-inning is always kinda higher leverage than a 6-1 game in the 8th inning. Would be fun to see him show progress and have success.

Not often that the top-3 guys take 10 walks plus an HBP, and reach base 14 times. Crazy! Bummer that Cabada didn't make it. I read somewhere that while Reid was very effective, his fastball was still mostly only 91-93. Had hoped there would be some some jump, but that doesn't sound like any.

That would be so cool if all three of Long, Alcantara, and Ramirez hit the ball hard and racked up some HR's. Go go go.

Interesting that Riley will start. Probably just a bullpen day. But I might have thought Velasquez might start. Obviously Charlie Barnes has already pitched in relief, maybe once everything gets rolling he will. Would be fun to have Riley get locked in. His stuff is good enough, I think, if his command could be consistent enough. Maybe getting some innings is just the thing, and getting a handful of 3-4 inning starts will help him?

Ethan Roberts with a couple of pitches up in the 94-ish range. Obviously still sub-par for a RH reliever. But a guy with good location and good movement with his other stuff can be effective with a 94 fastball. Best wishes to him!

How fast was he looking?

Yeah, makes sense. Not that Kipp back to AA is exactly unfair. 4.22 at super-pitcher-friendly Knoxville at age 26 isn't that compelling for promotion.

When will Iowa release it's roster, I wonder? I think the pitching could be quite interesting and good. Assad-Wiggins-Sanders-Noland-Velasquiz-Kipp, with Wright and Wicks on IL, that could be a pretty good group. Gavin Hollowell, Ethan Roberts, Luke Little, and Ryan Rolison, Snider, Corbin Martin, Brigham, seems like a pretty good group of relievers, too. Should be a lot of competition for roles and for callup when needed.

True. Well stated, and thanks for the encouraging stats showing improvement as year progressed. Helpful and hopeful. I'm just thinking for most anyone we discuss here, most could already hit quite well in A-ball, better than .673 OPS? And/or most also have a much more favorable age/league profile? Arias is 23, coming off .673 in A. For him to reach Gomes-level hitting is a long-shot for sure. But baseball development is a funny game and sometimes improbably outcomes happen. Would be really fun if he could develop into the kind of hitter who could play as a #2 catcher in the majors.

It would be kinda awesome if Amaya, Moises, Ayers, and Armas all worked out, though. Being internally well-stocked at catcher, for depth as well as starters, would be super awesome.

Not to belabor, but Gomes hit 137 big-league HR and had a career OPS of .706, BA .246. That's in the major leagues, not awful. Armas had .673 OPS and .234 BA in A-ball. So more overwhelmed by A-ball pitching than Gomes in the majors. Whole lot of improving to promote three levels to the majors and have his bat be playably antiawful. Hope it happens. Not saying it can't; but most guys who are anti-awful enough to play in the majors were comfortably above average in A ball.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7144516/2026/03/25/chicago-cubs-breakout-prospects-2026/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983&userId=212065&source=dailyemail For pay. Sharma lists 5 "breakout" candidates, and doesn't include Conrad given the injuries. "What other young players could join Crow-Armstrong as key pieces to future winning Cubs teams? ..... But for now, here are five Cubs prospects who could break out in 2026." The 5: Wiggins, Ramirez, Rojas, Hartshorn, and..... Arriel Armas. Armas the most surprising inclusion. Some notes: Ramirez: "But the Cubs believe the power will come. It showed up in the spring, but it’s dangerous to take too much away from those results. The Cubs have adjusted Ramírez’s posture at the plate, which they believe will help him catch the ball out in front and lift it in the air a little more." "Even if he doesn’t develop power, many believe this is a major-leaguer who can help with a great glove and contact skills." Armas, I'll copy the whole bit: "A deep cut in the system who deserves a mention because many within the organization have sung his praises. The defense is already up to snuff with Armas. Pitchers and coaches rave about him as well. He frames, has a strong arm, knows the scouting reports, understands how to handle a staff and seems very advanced in many areas defensively. On offense, he’s incredibly strong. He’s been on the ground a lot, pushing too much in his swing. But they believe he has the skills to get to at least average on offense. The Cubs believe he’s a hidden gem who not enough people are talking about." Pipeline has him at #20, and also loves his defense. For his offense, they have "Armas ...has a sound right-handed stroke and a decent approach, but he struggles against changeups and is hapless against breaking balls. He showed some aptitude for launching balls to his pull side in 2025, but he doesn't barrel enough to provide more than 8-10 homers per season." Hartshorn: "If one were to take a quick poll of Cubs executives and coaches across the organization as to who will end up on top 100 lists that already isn’t on them, Hartshorn would likely be the name heard most.... A thickly built player with deceptively great athleticism, Hartshorn just looks like he belongs when he steps in the box. A switch-hitter who can play all over the outfield — though he’ll be given a lot of time in center to start — he has an advanced approach at the plate and has quickly proven to be a very knowledgeable hitter who has all the physical traits teams look for."

Wiggins has been a strike-thrower. If his fastball improved a little bit, the combo of good location with improved velocity is appealing.

Wing had some 95+ fastballs, though. Not fast by big-league norm. But not bad for a fastball with good ride; and for a kid who's been 19 for only a few months, and who probably has physical maturation left.

It's command and consistency. The slider moves plenty enough.

True for sure. As good as his fastball may be, there aren't really many/any good big-leaguers who don't have some good secondaries. He's not going to be a big success unless one or two of his secondaries end up being good. Really interesting to see how those progress. I saw one effective spring outing. I thought the changeup looked pretty good, in that outing better than the slider to my amateur eyes. The slider was kinda good, in terms of sharp movement; but it missed so badly in that outing that it didn't tempt. I think Wiggins is a smart, dedicated guy and they've talked him an elite athlete. Maybe he'll never improve secondaries enough, and end up Marmol or Justin Grimm. But I think it's more likely that he'll work on those pitches and improve the consistency with both change and slider. Think both will look more controlled and consistent in July than they looked in February. Pretty optimistic!

I think that's such a fun scenario. Heh heh, and I'm the only guy in Cub fan-dom who likes Assad quite a bit; who thinks his success past may be more than fluke luck (3.43 career ERA); and who thinks he's got some potential improvement ahead that still hasn't been fully tapped. So he might be another low-cost option after the 3 tickets expire. Rea is also under club control for next year at $7.5. I'm not much of a believer in Wicks, but I know Jason and some posters still have hopes. Would be fun if his current injury wouldn't last too long, and where by season end we'd actually have hopes reestablished? But yeah, if you had your 5 names, plus Assad-Rea-Wicks, you could hypothetically enter next season with 8 candidates before either resigning any of Shota/Taillon/Boyd or signing some other FA. So, could be in good position. Shota, Taillon, and Boyd are $57 combined in lux this season.

Boo.

Yeah, for Wiggins each pitch is a big deal. But *IF* his fastball is both so good that he can afford to throw it a lot without guys sitting on it and killing it; and *IF* he can throw it for strikes a lot, to control counts; and *IF* he can even start to locate it pretty well, command not just control, it's way easier to succeed. Building around one premier pitch that you can both throw a lot and throw for strikes just helps everything. Can't get K's without getting to two strikes, obviously, and slider and change work way better as K pitches when guys chase with two strikes. Very optimistic, it would be so fun if he can throw enough strikes and locate well enough to stay excellent as a starter.

As Bertz just noted, innings is a cruder measure than than they have to limit themselves to these days. But just to use the innings, Horton was a strike thrower, Wiggins is not. So I don't think Horton's innings are necessarily very indicative of what Wiggins might do. Seems like Horton had a bunch of games where he was getting through 5 innings on 65 pitches, or 6 innings on 78 pitches or whatever. Some of that was intentional; they knew they wanted to limit his work both on season and in individual games. So having him intentionally throw strikes and pitch to contact, I think that was a way to get more innings out of him without exceeding the his workload restrictions. Kinda guessing that Wiggins will need more pitches per inning.

Yeah, as with most prospects, it's about HR. You project ~15HR longer term, and note that he doesn't really have 20-HR power as of today. I admit I'm somewhat more optimistic, and see a higher-HR ceiling? He seems bigger/stronger this spring, and he's shown some exit velocities that could allow for HR's, if he pulls in the air often enough. Guess what? He does pull, no? His South Bend HR's were predominantly pull shots. Most Cubs minor-league hitters come along as up-the-middle/oppo guys. Rojas might be the rare one who does pull a lot? He hit 11 HR in 252AB at South Bend at age 20, If a regular starter in the majors, he'll have more than double those AB's. Maybe he'll have more than double those HR's? Maybe more, if he's bigger, smarter, and stronger? Obviously big-league pitching is way better, so maybe that's not within reach. But just physically, in terms of strength and bat speed, I think he's got some power upside. If he becomes a really good strong-asset starter someday, I've got to believe >15 HR is going to be part of his package.

I'm kinda obsessed with some subs who can hit. If he can hit, he's got a chance to help the Cubs. So glad it's not like old days with no DH. But if he earned some DH action, was backup 1B, if he could play LF well enough and hit well enough to be the backup LF, I think there could be a good role. Lot of "ifs" in that, though. Kinda depends on how well he can actually hit, and whether he can develop into OK in left.

Interesting that he's hit some that hard. Promising? "has a 70 speed grade". That's kinda weird, or maybe meaningless? Being only 19/6 SB/CS, when he had 75 singles and 61 walks, that suggests he's a pretty useless base-stealer despite his speed. To reach 1B by single/walk 136 times, yet rarely even try to steal, and have only a JAG success ratio when he tries, that's not really what you'd guess for a 70-speed guy whose game is built around small-ball. Must lack instinct or quick acceleration or something. We often use HR as a proxy for power, but doubles and triples are a big deal. Bateman had 75 singles but only 9 doubles, and despite his speed not a single triple. That's kinda crazy. If he can be whacking ≥100 EV, you'd think some doubles and triples ought to be possible. Other thought is that big-league defense is amazing. With "mainly about beating the ball into the ground and racing the baseball to first base", it's harder to win that race against big-league defenders. My theory is always that contact hitters are better able to adapt and optimize their hitting than are contact-challenged guys. Hopefully he can drive a few more line drives and get more doubles and triples? And maybe somehow figure out how to steal bases in volume.

I think Long is maybe a little too high, I'd have Conrad ahead. But, whatever. Bummer that he's injured, I wonder if/when he'll actually be back. The spin has been nothing big, and we know they should be cautious. I think some speculation that he might be back as soon as this weekend. I'm hoping that he's just a true-blue hitter, that he has enough power to make it work if he optimized his usage, and that in time he'll figure out how to pull more. As I always say, contact guys seem more likely to be able to adjust and optimize their hitting. The ability to play something other than 1B is obviously big. I think his anti-split may also work against him a bit. Not likely to get called up and given an initial role as a platoon-against RH pitchers. You'd think RH bat could platoon with Busch or Moises, but he isn't advantageously superior facing lefties. At least not yet. Would like to see a bunch of LF action this season, and would like to imagine him being decent there.