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craig

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Everything posted by craig

  1. craig
    Any updated perceptions regarding Ballesteros defensively? Just from box-score glancing, it doesn't seem like there is an obviously inordinate frequency of passed balls or wild pitches that jump out at me in his box-score games. Nor that opposing teams run-wild and either attempt or succeed on an inordinate number of steal attempts. It would be super cool if he panned out as a good hitter, but his defense ended up being solid.
  2. craig
    Yeah, we'll never know. Even if Kantro was bidding against himself, we'll never know. His take and scouting comments were way more effusive than the media writeups. Top-of-rotation reference, reference to both down curve as well as slider, impressive fastball metrics, perceived improvement of his control. Maybe most draft bosses saw him like Keith Law and the media guys, but perhaps several others also saw and liked what Kantro liked?
  3. craig
    On Day1 when we picked Wiggins, did any of us anticipate he'd be significantly superslotted? We'll see what he ends up actually signing for. But I think Kantro usually uses his money very carefully and uses all of it. So if he's saved $300 for overslot, and Wiggins is the only guy left to sign, seems Wiggins is going to get a nice overslot. Day 1: Media guys rank as an 85-150 3rd/4th-round guy; most report a pretty straight fastball; all agree he's a wildman with no control of fastball much less anything else. TJ surgery. Who guessed he'd get superslot? Kind of a cool story. In the unlikely event that he develops into a high-end rotation guy with decent-enough control, the Cubs scouts and PD guys will deserve a lot of praise.
  4. craig
    Modern draft is so different from olden days, before the cap, the slots, and the quick signing deadline. Way different from the suspense, and from the long process. Dunston, Maples... are we going to sign them? Bobby Hill, Bobby Brownlee, Blasko, they haven't signed yet. When does their college start classes? Did they actually go to class on first day, and we've lost them? Some of these guys taken between round 20-40 seem pretty interesting; will Hendry really have the budget to sign any of them? 20 years ago I never imagined it would be so snappy. 20 picks, 20 guys signed within two weeks or less. The only suspense whether a couple of 3rd-day guys will sign, and about the apportionment of bonus dollars. So straightforward and uncomplicated these days! The suspense about whether guys signed will be good remains.
  5. craig
    Overslot guys can't sign until the Day1/2 guys officially sign and free the requisite overslot cash. For example, suppose you hypothetically sign Hope at $700, assuming Wiggins 5% overage? Or for $850, presuming Wiggins signs $150 sub-slot? What would happen if Wiggins bombs his physical and doesn't sign? Or his agent breaks his word and reneges on the $150-subslot agreement? *If* you'd already formalized Hope's deal, you'd not have the money. I count $551 being available right now, presuming the 5% Wiggins overage. So, Wiggins slot, Hope could get $700K. 3rd-round money. Maybe more, if Wiggins signs sub-slot. Apparently Billy Swope persuaded Kantro to like Hope an awful lot!! I assumed overslot, but hadn't guessed that much. Hope Hope can learn to hit, the most elusive of skills.
  6. craig
    Interesting figures. Two years ago, Kantro went strongly sub-slot with some of the Day 2 picks. (Riley Martin, Peter Matt $1K and $5K. Five guys picks 5-10 signed for $79 to $262K below slot.) Last year, Nick Hull only serious Day2 sub-slot ($25K). Day 3, only two guys below $125, and the lowest at $50K. So Kalmer $50, that' matches last year's lowest Day3 deal. Interesting that JC 10th rounder took significant sub-slot. His scouting sounded pretty favorable, so it wouldn't have shocked had he been full slot or variably over slot. But no. I'm curious where the overslot money is going. Quick round-number, between 5% and the three subslot deals, that would be ~$550. Subtract $150 for Melendez, but that would still allow $400. That's without adding more sub-slot dollars for Wiggins and Rivera. Wouldn't you assume Wiggins and Rivera should both sub-slot, and free up even more? So, if they have $400 to maybe $600-700, what's it for? Some for Hope. But is he THAT good that it's ALL for him? Is college Singer going to actually get super-slotted? That would really be interesting. Past two years, Kantro would only save ~$75K for Day3 overslots, and he'd only sign one per year. Obviously Hope will get more than that, but is it possible Kantro wants to sign more than one Day3 overslot?
  7. craig
    Thanks Maddux! Good to know, and good news.
  8. craig
    Interesting that Rosario right at slot. Not common for a HS guy after round 2. That the league didn't value a guy with his power and arm higher than 6th-round slot may reflect how they scouted his hitting. Have we ever established how tall he actually is? I'd prefer 6'2", but have seen 6'5" and 6'6" as well.
  9. craig
    https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/cubs-wrap-up-first-day-of-draft-by-taking-intriguing-college-arm/ Kantro on 2nd-day picks.
  10. craig
    Thanks for all the notes and research, Rubes. I kinda assume that 11th round HS Hope will be signed. Last couple of drafts, Kantro has drafted a couple of 3rd-day HSers who'd cost overslot, and figure if one didn't take it, somebody else would. But Hope is the only HS guy taken, and they didn't wait. I assume he's the guy they want, and they kinda already knew what they needed to get him.
  11. craig
    I'll maybe also copy this to 2nd-day thread, but since this is the active thread, thought I'd add it here. Kantro comments on 2nd day guys. https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/cubs-wrap-up-first-day-of-draft-by-taking-intriguing-college-arm/ I found the following two comments most noteworthy. Particularly the idea that Carico could "maintain the catching position".
  12. craig
    Agree with the note about looking for ways to get value-per-limited dollar. Every team is trying to do that, of course. And risk-reward is complex for every individual player. But yeah, Wiggins has all three of wildman, TJ, and delayed start working against him. Cubs obviously thought those negatives enabled them to get a good-ceiling possibility at a place and price in the draft that otherwise wouldn't have been available. Your observation that the Cubs don't value top-of-zone riding fastballs like most teams was interesting and helpful. Not something I'd thought about before. Heh heh, not sure they're wise in that, given how ineffective some of our high-velocity fastballs have seemed to be! But that's a helpful thought for understanding some of their drafting.
  13. craig
    Agree. The long levers for 6'5/6'6" seem too long for my preference.
  14. craig
    I love having as many different scouting reports included as exist. After the first few rounds, often there aren't very many. But seeing different perspectives from different observers is really helpful. In the threads, California Raisin has posted a bunch, and it's super interesting to see different thoughts on Carico's defense, for example. Or Wiggins' fastball, one report can talk vertical drop, while another scout fastball as straight. So whether in the threads themselves, or in the synopsis listing, I'd love to have as many links to multiple reports.
  15. craig
    What do you think or know about Rosario? Haven't seen much info or media scouting on him. Seems to have the size and frame to have big power potential, and the arm to be perhaps really good. But, he's not been listed in any media-ranking top-250 or whatever. Being from New Jersey, and now at a sports-academy-HS in SC, I'm not sure why scouts would have missed him, it's not like he's from Manitoba or North Dakota and scouts never saw him. And being 19, he's not too young to have ever been seen. His height also lists differently. mlb Draft tracker has him at 6'6; NSB lists him at 6'5"; Perfect Game 6'2". I wonder which is real? I wonder how long he and his family lived in the states? seems like a man of much mystery. I'm guessing once the Cubs sign him, his bonus might provide some clues, too. *IF* he's slot ($326), or not hugely over ($400 or so?), that might provoke less "wow, I wonder if" that if he gets $700 or some really big super-slot.
  16. craig
    $145,500 over slot for Melendez, the 17-year-old 7th rounder from PR. Lots of projection for 6'3 165 17-year-old.
  17. craig
    Which bonus pool? From the previous-summer draft? Or would that count against the upcoming draft?
  18. craig
    https://theathletic.com/4678630/2023/07/10/cubs-draft-matt-shaw/ Kantrovitz. Longenhagen says "pure relief prospect". But Kantro's reference to curveball "really stood out" suggests that Cubs see a path as a starter. Combo of power fastball with ride, power slider, curveball, and the change that other sources have mentioned, that's obviously a pathway to being a rotation asset. Obviously the Cubs have had a lot of guys who work on lots of pitches but fail because they can't control any of them, that's totally Cubs typical. So Jaxon will probably be no better in rotation that Jensen or Luke Little or Palencia or Kohl Franklin or Riley Thompson or any of the wildmen. I'd like to believe, and I like going for some ceiling. But thus far, I have to agree with Longenhagen, that whatever capacity Cubs D+D pitch-lab stuff has had in boosting velo or pitch shape, it really hasn't shown much success in curing wildmen.
  19. craig
    Thanks, that makes sense, I'd forgotten about the rainout.
  20. craig
    Hodge used in relief. Is this the first time this year?
  21. craig
    Have we had guys younger than Moises in high-A? I think he's a few months younger than Caissie was when he broke with South Bend last year. Younger than Triantos, or Alcantara or PCA for their South Bend debuts. I think the immortal Aramis Ademan was some months older when he began at high-A, too. (I like to remember Aramis as a reminder that being super young for a league is nice, but only if you're good and you keep getting better, neither of which were true for him.) Gleyber Torres, was he maybe the last hitter younger than Moises to hit A+?
  22. craig
    90th percentile exit velocity is encouraging.
  23. craig
    Wow, 2 XBH for Howard, nice! Neither Tennessee nor SB are done as I write, but thus far great nights for all three of Howard (3/5,HR, 2B), Alcantara (5/5, 2HR), and Caissie (4/5, HR, 2BB). Fun!
  24. craig
    No XBH for Howard since game 1, and hitless back-to-back-to-back. 8K/0BB/1XBH thus far. Hope springs eternal.
  25. craig
    Wow. Nice! Would sure be fun if the international operations had a burst. Alzolay has been good, and Amaya with a HR today. Man would it be fun if Ballesteros, Rojas and Derniche are good.
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