craig

I don't get the "inconsistent standards" complaint! What no-position prospects are ranked in the org's top 10? PCA, Alcantara, Shaw, all are perceived as position-capable by people who top-10 them. And I imagine people who top-10 Caissie do that with the perception that he can play RF/LF. So where's the inconsistency of standards? Nobody is ranking McGeary top 10.

No knock on Murray. But 20th in HR's, 7th in slugging, batting in the .260's, having an .865 OPS, those are good but not "wow" offensive numbers. Not "next-great-DH" numbers for a 23-year-old. He may project to add significantly more power, I don't know? As you've noted his baseball experience may not match his age, so hopefully he's got a lot more improvement ahead. I'm guessing that physically, he probably doesn't have a lot of "when he fills out he'll add more power" projection left?

Murray's not going to get top-10'd as a 5'10" defensive 1B, that's all I'm saying. Your question was what he needs to do to get discussed among the top-10 guys. The answer is to emerge as a guy with starter-caliber 3B-defense. It's not complicated. Cubs have a good and a deep system. Guys who aren't top-10 will have successful careers, and outperform guys who rated higher. The "top-10-or-not" issue doesn't matter to me.

Tom, I'm the one obsessed with 1B defense, I often think that's almost the most impactful defensive position on the field given how many plays they're involved. After seeing Bellinger there, I'm reminded often of how great it is to have his range on all the throws. I'd never want a Donovan Solano playing 1B for my team. I can't speak for others, but for me the capacity to play a spot defensively applies to anybody who's in or near my top-10. It's one (among other) reasons why I think it's ludicrous for anybody to include Triantos in their top-10's. At present, he projects as a liabilility at any defensive spot. It's certainly a question with Caissie, too. He's got a rocket in RF, but I don't get the sense his range is good, and guys don't normally get rangier as they add years. So, *IF* he really shakes out as DH-only, is Caissie's bat THAT good? (With his power potential, it might be; but it's a pretty high bar. And with all his K's, it's tough.). Ballesteros, likewise. Can he actually catch? If so, I love him as a prospect. But if he can't, I can't put him in a top 10. He's even shorter than Murray, no way I want Ballesteros playing 1B more than on a once-in-a-while contingency basis.

As Tim and mogrified mentioned, the 3B defense is the path. When he improves himself so that people perceive him as a capable every-day big-league 3B defender, people will include him in top-10 discussion. A short 5'10" guy has no wing-span at 1B, so 1B is no path. If he never surpasses liability-emergency capacity at 3B and 1B, top 10 isn't appropriate.

Nice for Brennen. Probably been a couple of years since a 3-hit game, or one with two XBH.

Prospect Promotion Incentive, two articles. The top link is much more detailed and useful, the bottom one is shallow and misleading. Wanted to post a topic on this just for future reference, since it's hard to remember the details. https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/mlb-prospect-promotion-incentive-rookie-year-cba/ja5ts8eaxcuv85xujnzriafb https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33761266/the-end-mlb-service-manipulation-how-kris-bryant-paved-way-next-kris-bryant It's ironic that the requirement is for prospect to be top-100 on 2/3 of MLB.com, espn, or BA prospect lists. Given how we don't necessarily respect BA's list as much as other lists. The sportingnews author says ROY 2 + 3 can win draft picks in the international draft, which of course never happened. To your knowledge, is there perhaps a spending allotment instead? I assume not, and that there is no reward for 2nd/3rd in ROY with no international draft in place. Don't think this is Cub-relevant for this year or next. Doubt either PCA or Horton will either win ROY or make opening roster or get full-season service time. Same for Shaw, who isn't currently on 2/3 of those three top-100 lists. (Although he may well be after the season wraps.)

The negotiation leverage for future draft agents is a great point. Hadn't considered that.

From economics standpoint, I think hustling guys up quickly is of dubious value. Six years till free agency, I don't want to waste the first year and two on development. I'd prefer as much development to for free in the minors, then get as much real big-league value as possible during the cheap and club-controlled years. Thus, I'm in no rush to call up Brown, Horton, PCA, Wicks, Shaw economics-wise. *If* there is hypothetically still development to be gained in the minors, it's economically advantageous to get them as fully-developed as possible before calling them up. Obviously economics is one thing, winning is another. Years-distant budget considerations are routinely outweighed by Nowacrate W-L considerations.

Neto, by the way, has a .315 OBP and .411 slugging. [His OBP isn't worse because he gets HBP a lot. He's got more HBP than walks, enabling the >.300 OBP with only a .241 BA.] Perhaps that's just the developmental beginning, and he's going to improve in future. Being 96 OPS+ as a rookie is a pretty good way to start a career, and he may get better and better. But, I also wonder whether he may not perhaps already be near his ceiling? And maybe won't get very much better than he already is? Not trying to criticize him. But if the Angels hypothetically get future what they've already got now, a kinda average guy might not be all that exciting long-term. Even if they got anti-awful from Neto very quickly.

We're a farm-loving group. But I admit I've never really understood the resentment over removing the Northwest League. Compressing from 7 to 6 levels doesn't look like that slippery of a slope to me. The goal is player development, and I think that is better served in Mesa with all of its facilities and volume of coaches and pitch-lab and weight-room resources, etc., rather than sending some up to Eugene and its long bus rides. That was the perception of the player-development people more than finances. The cost factor for Eugene was a drop in the bucket relative to Cub expenses. There have always been occasional guys who fast-tracked it to the majors. Neto and Schanuel, Hoerner and Schwarber. There was a pitcher named Burt Hooton who the Cubs drafted and brought to the majors without a single minor-league appearance back in the 70's. I suspect that college is better at player-development now than in years past. The usage of analytics is advanced. So maybe some guys will reach their peaks more quickly. But minor league baseball and player development have plenty of future.

Derniche gets BABIP up over .400. Kinda crazy to whiff 47% of his AB, yet BABIP that high. To K half he AB's, he must be swinging-and-missing-altogether on a lot of pitches. Usually a guy who misses completely on so many pitches, you'd think he'd miss partially on a lot of others, and get a lot of weak contact top-side or bottom-side on swings that don't totally miss. Yet the HR's and BABIP suggest that he does hit the ball square pretty often on his non-K AB's. Weird. Not sure how sustainable, but he's a funky case.

Thanks for observations, Tom. That's bad. I have zero interest in a 5'10" 1st baseman defensively. Short levers, the catch radius on throws is unacceptable. Personally I don't ever want to see a 5'10" primary 1B. So, for me that means he's a DH/bad-3B prospect. Maybe he can develop into an anti-awful left-fielder if his offense is good enough to make it worthwhile?

BJ's OPS is at .864. What are updates on BJ's defense? Last year I think it reported as bad wherever he played. But this year, a little more consistent? Any updated perceptions on Ballesteros defense-wise?

Shaw's 1st SB HR was a RF line deal, this one well off the line but again RF. I wonder if he's in the Hoerner mode (until recently), where he's a pretty committed RF guy? Hoerner has improved more recently when he uses the whole field, including pull side.

Thanks for lists. Quick thoughts: Surprising to me is how Triantos stays so high in so many lists. Low ISO with DH-like defense, seems like he should be more ~20 than top 12. NY, I think Pipeline has Wiggins too low, not too high. They put Wiggins AFTER Rivera, even though Wiggins was drafted a round ahead, and Wiggins got twice the money, and the Cubs did subsequent drafting to accommodate Wiggins overslot. Obviously lots of injured wildmen never work. But I'd give a more credence to the Cubs valuation than Pipeline's.. I admit I'm something of a ceiling guy, so I appreciate Kantro's TORP ceiling valuation. Padder, I'm pretty OK with down-ranking Cristian. Yes, he seemed promising and projectible when he was 14, and the door hasn't shut yet. But no contact, no power, no progress, and sub-par middle-infield defense makes him a longish shot. Surprised Pipeline still has him as high as 21. Interesting that McGeary is top-30 in both lists, and top 20 in Pipeline.

Well, my save lux-tax motivation logic did not play out into an actual trade. Maybe they had some trades they were talking on, that didn't play out. Or, maybe my rationale was faulty? I heard that there was also some information reported counter to the initial report. Initial report had us sending them International cash. Other thing I heard, third hand, was that we receive the international cash, plus that we sent some money over in the deal. If the latter were true, that would argue against the motivation being saving lux space. Question: Is it even possible to acquire IFA money for the upcoming year? Or, is any cash that they got only usable for the present year? In which obviously all of the main guys have already been signed, so what value is there in getting more now?

Neither Manny nor Sampson were on the 40-man. It was the $600K.

Sampson's has a $1.9 guaranteed contract. This frees the remaining $600K. I think the IFO money is for the current year, not next year's class? Manny's been very good lately. May finally be healthy and settling in, perhaps years of D+D ready to finally bear fruit? Obviously Manny is more desirable than Roberson. But I think that was the price to free the extra $600K for whatever deadline pickup(s) Hoyer may be hoping to complete.

I am so glad the NL has the DH now. It opens a possible door fo a guy like Perlaza, *IF* his hitting could carry up. But JD, I am 100% opposed to considering guys like Perlaza or Ballesteros for 1B. No short guys allowed at 1B. The importance of 1B defense is sometimes grossly underrated. Can't have a <6-foot guy playing 1B.

Maddux, wrong board, maybe. But have you heard anything about Frisch, draft pick from last year about whom I've heard zero since? Is this just their standard healthy patient process for a TJ guy? Or has he perhaps had some kind of setback(s) in his rehab? I'm kinda wondering if a guy like that is doing fine, and is working hard in pitch lab in Mesa, and all is progressing desirably? Or might show up in an Arizona league game any day? Or if he's pacing to get going once fall instrux happens?

Cubs drafted Will Frisch last summer. Wiggins had his TJ in February, Frisch in March. It's end of July and we haven't seen Frisch yet this summer, 16-months out. If Wiggins hypothetically follows an equivalent timeline, ≥16 months, we won't see much of Wiggins (if any) next season. Next summer could be fun with talented recent picks Gray, Ferris, and Horton all starting out in full season. Maybe Frisch and Sanders too?

Exactly. Ty Nichols is an experienced and well respected area scout in Arkansas and Oklahoma. [Just as Billy Swope is over in Virginia. (I believe Shaw, Carico, and Hope were all selections from Swope's scouting area, plus at least one other 3rd day pick.).]. Kantro mentioned that Nichols and Shaw are two of the scouts he trusts and relies on, and that he also uses as mentors for younger scouts. Nichols has been tracking Wiggins in both HS and his 3 years at Arkansas. Nichols has a good relationship with Arkansas's coaches, so I think he knows how to filter the feedback he gets from them. As mentioned earlier, the Cubs hired Arkansas's strength-and-conditioning guy, who had worked with Wiggins in past. So I think they've got lots of input on personality and brains and self-motivation and all that part of the profile. Obviously Nichols has all of the technology for tracking metrics on Wiggins stuff. Horton had only flashed his plus new slider for a few weeks, but Nichols and Kantro believed it was real. Only late did Wiggins start to flash his downer curveball, but Nichols and Kantro liked it. Maybe wiggins fall-ball splash was kinda analogous to Horton's last month in college? Nichols and Kantro see the makings of four good pitches, and saw progress in terms of his control. Each guy is unique. Yes, Nichols and Kantro saw some improvement in control, but anti-awful improvement can still be way below average. Who knows how future control will be? And sure, Nichols can record some great pitch metrics; but if Wiggins can't control them, or throw good ones consistently, of what value are the best-pitch metrics? Kantro's a smart guy, he understands that stuff. He went for the upside and took the risks associated. That's life in the draft. I hope it works out and Kantro looks genius.

Yeah, Kantro analyzes every dollar,. He totally knew the deal. If he'd expected Wiggins to sign for slot, he'd have drafted some contingent overslot guys in Day 3, as he's done in previous drafts. This was no surprise to Kantro. Kantro loving Wiggins that much, and planning the overslot from the start, also adds context to Kantro's interviews. I'd assumed "top-of-rotation" references was just draft-gush hyperbole for a sub-slot pick, but the dollar speak to how much upside they perceive. . I'm still curious as to the delay. Was Wiggins really considering going back to school, and pitching his way into the 1st round? If so, he must have gotten upbeat reports from his TJ doctors. But who knows, maybe his sister had a destination wedding; or his grandfather was in hospice. Being in rehab anyway, there was no urgency to get signed and get onto the fields in Mesa.

Thanks, JD! Perfect timing, and that's encouraging. His body type obviously isn't going to change. But anybody who follows college football knows that there are some super-motivated guys who sometimes get way more toned over the course of a couple of years. That would be super cool if he makes it as a catcher.