craig

We don't know a lot, other than what you've noted from the stats. He's quite a contact hitter. He's caught 5 games out of 28 at Daytona, 11 out of 22 at Boise. I've been watching carefully on the occassion when he's caught. I haven't noticed an inordinate number of passed balls or errors. And I haven't seen any stolen bases against in his last couple of starts. So it's not obvious that he's a butcher. Still, that they use a guy with his bat so little at catcher, that makes me a think they probably don't project his catcher defense as being that great. Combine that kind of contact hitting skill with a catcher who can catch and you'd have something. Obviously he only started catching last fall. So I'm hoping their limited usage of him at catcher doesn't really reflect on his catching potential. That by next summer he'll be catching regularly, and will be on track to be a quality major-league defensive catcher. If that were to happen, he'd be a pretty valuable prospect. I'm a little uncertain where he might find regular catching action next year, though. Wellington Castillo is the best position prospect at Peoria and has good potental both defensively and as a hitter. He's gotta be regular catcher at Daytona next year. Often they do catchers every-other-day, so if Clev and Castillo were alternate-day catchers for Daytona, that would be great for Clevenger. That's probably his best hope. I assume Donaldson might be regular for Peoria, so perhaps Clev could also drop back there and be an alternate-day catcher. While Clevenger's bat could likely handle Tenn, it seems unlikely they'd want to entrust the AA pitching staff to a catcher with less than 20 games of pro catching experience, and less than 10 in full-season ball. If he does go to AA, I'd guess it would be more utility and 3rd-string catcher action. Not likely, but one possiblity would be to skip Donaldson up to A+ and make him the alternate-day catcher with Castillo. That seems unlikely, since Donaldson still has a ways to go defensively, so I think they'll likely step him along more slowly. And, if both Donaldson and Castillo were at Daytona, it would be impossible for both to get anything beyond half-time catching practice. But if they did go that way, then Clevenger could have an obvious shot to fit into Peoria's catcher rotation. Having hit well at Daytona, that wouldn't make sense as a hitter. But since defense is his issue, that might work for him. Not likely, though. If he never gets beyond 3rd-string catcher, then his future isn't as bright. so I'm really hoping that he has what it takes to catch, and that the Cubs do what it takes to give him the opportunity to develop as a defensive catcher and find out whether it could be possible eventually.

Interesting news. Ping gets the ITYS! Both of these guys are certainly qualified for the promotion. Smith has been quite productive, really. A couple fewer K's, a couple extra HR's, and his numbers would look even better. .381 OBP, he's a walk machine (37 walks in 193 AB), not many Cubs who walk at 20% rate. Hardman has not done much for Peoria, so wright could fit right in in LF. I really hope Smith and Wright do well in their 2-3 weeks plus hopefully playoffs for Peoria. As 4th year seniors with lots of college experience and from high-profile college programs, I'd think both are excellent candidates to skip straight to Daytona next year, along with Wyatt. (Wyatt also deserves promotion, but I imagine Boise needs him and promotion would provide a conflict with Leon Johnson.) If Wright and Smith get killed at Peoria (unlikely), that might work against Daytona for them next April. But if they carry their hitting right along at Peoria, that would further support their odds of going straight to Daytona next spring. I had rationalized that a promotion for these guys didn't matter much, they wouldn't develop any differently, and their chance of skipping to Daytona likely wouldn't depend on two weeks in Peoria this month. So I didn't think it was any big deal that they weren't getting promoted. But I certainly have zero problem that they did. I like it. I do think it's odd that they waited so late. I've gotta think there is a little adjustment time normally with any move. I'd have thought they might go up a week or more sooner, and give them a longer stretch at Peoria to get a more meaningful sample size there. [/i]

Possible. Not sure it's almost certain, though; Lou hasn't been too eager to start these 25th man emergency callups.

I would be shocked if Vitters gets an AB this summer after he presumably signs tomorrow. He's been out of the loop for months now, and they routinely seem to have at least a week or more form when a guy signs till when he plays, often longer. Not sure what that involves. Practice? Perhaps they go through some organizational orientation stuff? Beats me. But there's not likely to be enough season left to make it worth Vitters playing in any games. If anything, that's just asking for a downer. Advanced hitters like Donalsdon and Thomas didn't hit at Mesa for their first few games, I recall that with guys like Fox etc. in the past too. It's just asking to have a meaningless but depressingly low stats-line on his stats page to ask him to play out the last ten games of the season. Few high draft picks play much their first year. In past, most HS guys would drag out the negotiations and back them up against the college year. In fact, I can only remember two, maybe three HS guys recently who signed quickly enough to get in some meaningful first-summer action: Luis Montanez, Pawalek, and perhaps Harvey. Heh, hopefully Vitters is avoiding their path! I would be really shocked if Vitters opened at Peoria next spring. If so, he'll need to really knock their socks off in fall camp and spring training. He's only 17. No rush. Any rumblings that they might sign anybody else? I'm still kind of hoping that they'll surprise us and sign somebody else before the deadline. But I don't expect that, it would be a surprise.

Have we gotten any bonus info on Acosta yet? Splinter, given that he was a HS shortstop, I'd be really shocked if he opened at Peoria right off the bat. Splinter, any sense for whether we'll sign anybody else other than Vitters before the deadline tomorrow? Last year Huseby was a big surprise, and I was rather surprised to see Russell sign this year, at superslot. I'd like to see another superslot surprise pop up. Pre-draft, Wilken talked more than once about tracking some guys over the summer leagues and maybe signing somebody at the end. Two months of summer isn't quite like a D+F full spring season, and obviously guys can't physically mature between June and August the way they can between June and May. But it would be fun to get a surprise signing or two here at the last minutes. By the way, Wilken's D+F work last round looks very interesting. Rosa, Hatley, and Redmond have all been pretty interesting. And Latham has spotted some good outings, too.

I don't see that. vitters will likely be in short-season. Donaldson and Burke are the only Boise producers who are sure to go to Peoria. Well, Johnston, if you include him. Rundle's over his head now, will likely be again if he jumps next April. I'd guess that of wright, Wyatt, and Smith, at least one or two will skip to Daytona. If it was today, I'd have Johnson and Hardman repeat Peoria, with Wright and Wyatt skipping to Daytona. Lansford will obviously get promoted, and Castillo. So I'd guess Smith might just go to Peoria rather than skip. Thomas might skip to Daytona, but probably would stay at Peoria, he seems much less polished than Wright and Wyatt both offensively and defensively. But, if he skipped, and assuming Clevenger repeated at Daytona, Daytona could have a pretty high-average lineup next year.

I don't see that it's much of a big deal. Rundle and Boyer are getting plenty of action, and clearly should not be at a higher level. Wright and Wyatt clearly could be at a higher level. But, what would be the point? Are they going to develop significantly differently at Peoria that they will at Boise? I don't imagine it makes any difference at this point. They've both had very productive seasons, Wyatt especially, at Boise. Given their age, and their current output, both would seem destined to open at Daytona next year if they look good in camp(s). For their careers, I don't think it makes any difference. If anything, it's fine to stay put, finish up strong, and finish with some sense of team. Don't need to get introduced to a new host family, don't need to learn a new manager and hitting coach and Hardee's. Johnson is a prospect. Having spent a good chunk at Mesa and then up to Peoria (based on merit at the time), to bounce him back down to Boise would be kind of too much jerking. Let him play through whatever slump he's got. And, there are also playoff considerations, etc.. I'm not up on the minor-league standings, but Wright and Wyatt are integral to Boise's playoff chances. Keep them there, get in, win some playoff games, that's fun and good for development too. Let Peoria take their chances with the guys they've got, including Adduci who's produced. And, I think it's iffy to always decide who's got ceiling and who doesn't. Wyatt and Wright have hit for average, for contact, with some power, and with some walks in college, and now in Boise. Wyatt's OBP is around .440 or so, OPS near 1.000. Given his age, that doesn't prove he'll be good. But sometimes a guy actually is good, and just because he's in a younger league doesn't mean he might not have figured hitting out. Wright walks as often as he K's, plays an excellent outfield, and has hit some HR's and doubles to go with his batting average. For all we know he'll end up as a Murton-bat with a little more power and a much better glove? Who's to say guys like that who can field and can hit moving pitches don't have a higher ceiling than guys like Rundle and Harvey who perhaps hit or project to hit longer batting-practice home runs, but don't have the talent to read and hit actual moving pitches?

EPatt was one callup that cost a 40-man. He wouldn't have needed to be rostered till after 2008. Fox up for Eric, that would be fine. Who cares, neither is likely to get more than 1 AB per series, and neither is likely to get any hits. Pigs, that's more odd. Gallagher stunk the other night, try a new face? That doesn't seem to make sense, since Pigs has been a very short guy this year, even if he was long previously. Eyre stunk the other night, dump him? That could make some sense, although Lou has seemed pretty committed to Eyre and Hendry seems pretty unable to dump that guaranteed contract, for Trib reasons or whatever. Maybe Kerry, he'd been throwing over 90 mph for perhaps as many as ten outings between his rehab and Cub time, so with his sub-90's velocity yesterday perhaps a fair chance his shoulder has taken as much as it could stand and he's ready to return to the DL?

I'm not Raisin, but I'll try to answer this. The regular outfield is: *Wright in left (41 games in left, one in right), *Wyatt in center (48 games), and *Burke in right (35 games, 1 in left), *Rundle is utility OF (19 in right, some maybe before Burke came over and got established?; 10 in left; 5 in center). It might make sense to move Wyatt up to Peoria, but not so much. Leon Johnson is the CF there, and he was drafted higher than Wyatt and is as old. Adduci is the peoria RF. Neither Burke nor Rundle really need to get promoted at this point to replace him. Peoria LF is a scramble, and Wright could go there. Seems to me it's fine to let things stand. The only reason I'd see to be concerned about the Boise outfield is if you're really motivated to get Rundle more action. But since he's hitting only .214, I'm not sure getting him a bigger role is urgent. And he pretty much plays a lot as is, so it's not like he's getting blocked out.

Very temporary! 6 earned runs in 6 innings, 5.23 ERA.

cal, have you heard anything on Boise's Santana? He had 6 K's in his 2 otherwise ineffective innings yesterday. His performance has been spotty at times, but there have been days when his line looks pretty good. Is this a guy who's got a pretty good arm? If in some future year his performance was consistently good, is it possible that he's got a major-league arm if he were to end up with major-league control? Petty interesting to have Pawelek back, and to have a rare no-walk outing.

Thanks much, Cal. That's great news for AlAl, even if not for Huseby. OK, I'll add him to my real talent list, possible reliever or trade bait someday. His perfrormance lately has been more jazzy, 14 K's in his last two outings, 8 K's in 3 innings last time, even if he did allow 3 runs. So, you are vindicated that he has something. His Peoria output and Nathan's report certainly didn't reflect any 95 mph fastball. But, fortunately things change.

This is second hand news, but a friend from Bleacher Bums board attende all three of the recent Tenn games at WTenn, and gave some scouting information. he reports on I believe 7 pitchers, Veal, Mendez, Henderson, Johnson, Avery, Roquet, and Schappert. He reported that Schappert maxed out around 82. The other six were all almost the same in terms of velocity. Veal 90-93, touched 94 once, was down to 88-90 by last inning. Said Veal had both a sharp curve and slider that break into the dirt, but that he threw only maye one for a strike all game, most of them weren't even close. He said he mostly just threw high 4-seam fastballs. They either bashed them for hits, hard flyouts, foul balls, or eventually would strike out after long AB's with lots of fouloffs. He said that Veal just looked like a thrower. He thought Veal looked Ohman but with even less control. Said Mendez was 91-92. Said Henderson was 90-93, but that his slider wasn't too hot that night. (A different poster saw henderson recently at Tennessee, and said that he threw harder than anybody he's seen for Tennesse all year, including having watched Veal a couple of times and Gallagher and Hart.) Said Johnson was actually at 91-93 all inning, so apparently Johnson's arm isn't shot. Said he had a slider in the low 80's for strikes. I believe my friend got there for the second of a 2-inning outing by Johnson, I know the box score showed it as a 4-hit-3-run outing by Grant. Avery pitched the next inning, at 91-92 also with a low-80's breaking pitch. He thought Avery's breaking ball seemed to fool hitters better than Johnson's had. Roquet pitched the next inning and was 92-94, with what he referred to as a pretty good curve, and that he seemed to vary his fastball more, taking some off at 88-89. I know BA talked about Roquet having a slider; perhaps the fact that my friend called it more of a curve compared to Johnson's slider suggests that Roquet's has more break, I don't know.

Thanks, cal. Several thoughts for me: 1. I hadn't realized Harben was already derostered. 2. In my earlier post, Kroeger and long-shot Harvey were the only names that came to my mind. But Kevin Hart's outstanding start yesterday reminded me that he'd be a possible strong candidate as well. A third, oddly enough, would possibly be Justin Berg. Has the strong sinker, and I thought I'd read a report recently where he was at 95. Obviously not close to having the command, but he has made some progress. Sometimes Cubs protect guys like that.

Clevenger seems to be a genuine low-K contact line-drive guy. No K's, no HR's. This year he's pretty much not taken walks at all, either. My view on his future hinges on his defense. Yesterday or Saturday was his first game at daytona catching, after 10 as a 1B/DH. His boise time was split 50-50 between catching and 1B/DH. I would judge that as a DH/1B, the majors don't use too many no-HR guys. But if he could catch at a major-league level, I think their is excellent opportunity for a low-power high-average contact hitter, even if he doesn't walk or HR much. As a LH hitter, there is also obvious interest as a part-time player. But it really depends on the catching. If he's Fox-caliber catcher, not so bright future. If in time he can catch at a Koyie Hill level, I'd take him very seriously. The odds of that, probably, are slim, given that they DH/1B'd him 10 games before getting him in to catch for a game. If suddenly he was catching 3-4 days a week through August, I'd be really interested. I realize that he's barely 21, so some of those doubles might become HR's in time. But it doesn't appear that he's really going to be a HR hitter.

Not likely. If Cubs offered him a good contract, he'd probably stay. They'd probably be scared to offer him arb unless they wanted him to stay, or unless he finished pretty strong. If he finished the year at .235, with creaky knees and age climbing, I think teams wouldn't offer him what an arbitrator would. That being the case, Cubs would either sign him under their own negotiated terms, or let him walk without taking the arb-and-lose risk, or the risk that they acquire an expensive replacement only to have Dye accept arb and stick them $10 million overbudget with a guy they have no use for. And in any such case, the risk/reward factors whether he's an A or a B. Dye is hitting .235, so I doubt he'll make a Class A free agent after the season. An A gets you a top-40 pick plus another high pick, possibly even a top-30 pick. A B gets you a single pick in the 40-60 range. Not sure management would see that as valuable enough to justify offering arb.

Carroll, I don't think this means much. Cubs are a money contender, so you here there names with big values. Griffey? Dunn? Johan Santana? Torii Hunter? Dontrelle? Teix? I imagine Carroll has heard a few big names with talk about whether the Cubs might not be a fit. And then, whenever Cubs name comes up, inevitably Pie's name has to enter the conversation. Nobody's going to trade a big name (other than perhaps old Griffey) to Cubs without Pie being involved. That wouldn't mean the Cubs are "shopping" Pie. Just that his name tends to come up. Simply because you can't discuss Cubs trading for a big gun without considering Pie's inclusion. Take Pie out of the discussion, and write the Cubs off in terms of any big name pickups that are less than 38 years old.

Dope has been very hot, and as you note since the break he's actually taken 10 walks in 139 AB, huge progress relative to his hacking norm. He's even dropped his K-rate over that small sample to a hair under 30%, which for him is also progress, horrific as it remains. His overall season OBP is now up to .293. (inlcuding his AA stats), and he's jumped his Daytona OBP up over .300, he's up to .308 now. So, it's progress, and it's true that he won't turn 24 till after the season. This is already his 2nd options year. It may well be that one way or another, Kroeger will be the only guy worth adding. Perhaps there will be a spot, Kendall's spot or maybe Harben's rehab isn't looking that great and he'll get bumped, obviously Miller. So if we only have one guy to add, maybe Dopirak won't even get any pressure. But, I think it's a long-shot that teams will be jumping over themselves to draft an almost 24-year-old DH who's a 30% K-guy in A-ball and is a fringe .300-OBP guy in A-ball. I think it would be a good thing for Dope and the Cubs, actually, if they did de-roster him this winter. That way, if he did come back and make serious progress next year, they could then return him to the 40-man roster for 2009 and have options to bring him up if/when Lee gets hurt, or to control him for another year to track whether he really has turned some kind of corner. If they keep him on for next year, what happens if he goes to AA, hits .280 with 22 HR's and a .315 OBP and an .830 OPS? He'd be out of options after that. As a DH/1B type, that probably wouldn't be enough to command a 2009 roster spot, but it might be good enough so that after you had to waive him, some other team might possibly pick him up. But if you deroster him this winter, assuming he'd clear, that would effectively give you two full years to let him develop before you'd need to decide whether to fish or cut bait. Pretty unlikely given his current problems to envision that he's going to turn into any great shakes in less than that time, if ever.

No, it's not idiotic for two reasons. 1. A guy's health impacts his future value. You can check if the guy is healthy or not during a 3-game observation. You don't want to trade for a guy only to find that his arm is shot, or something. Just common sense to make sure his health is as expected. 2. There are many pickups that are extremely short-term in purpose. Dunn, that wouldn't be the case. But in dealing with a Gary Gaetti or Jason Kendall type pickup, or many of the end-of-contract pitchers you might be considering, it makes sense to get a feel for whether they look to be hot or look all messed up. You may get a feel for that in a 3-game scout. I think it's common to have watched a guy over his career, and then to have seen him look different during a slump period. (Eyre this year? Jacque in April/May? Kendall in April/May?) If you know his stats have rebounded from the slump, and you watch him for a couple of days and he looks like the career guy again, not the slump guy, maybe you're more likely to gamble a fringe prospect to pick the guy up?

I strongly disagree. A really good middle reliever is invaluable. Since the Cubs turned the season around, Marmol's stabilization of the middle relief has been a major factor. In this pitch-count and long-count age, it's also not that common to get 7 full innings even when you're winning. Having reliable relievers helps prevent your manager from going Dusty and having Prior pitch 130 pitches rather than take chances with an unreliable bullpen.

I believe that rule change, giving both college and HS guys an extra year, went into effect last draft already. Not sure we'll have a lot of trouble. Most of the guys who are worth anything are already on the roster, since we've called everybody up already this year. With the extra year, Veal won't need protection yet. So Gallagher, Soto, Coats, Moore, Mateo, all those guys are already on. Rapada, Cherry, Guzman, etc.. With the new rule, I don't think Eric Patterson will even be eligible. Obviously Roquet won't. Not even Grant Johnson will. Basically I can't think of much of anybody outside of kroeger who's unprotected now who'll need protection then. Drop Wade Miller and Dopirak, and call it a day. Would this be Harvey's year to get protected? I suppose it's remotely possible the Cubs will still want to protect him. Or maybe they'll decide Jim Hamilton or somebody like that. Perhaps a larger problem to the 40 isn't taking minor-leaguers and putting them back on; it may be taking 60-day DL's and putting them on. I don't think the 60-day applies in winter, so your 40 needs to include those guys, right? If you still want to keep harben, I'd think that could get tight. Practical, from my POV, is that we don't need to be much motivated to trade away prospects in order to avoid 40-man pressure.

Why would Acosta's contract need to be waiting on commissioner's approval? Just standard, it takes a week or two for every one of them and the article just happened to be while it was in standard line? The guy who signs them is on vacation? Or is there something unusual here? Superslot money or something? (I'm hoping...) Or what?

I think the Cubs are in kind of a good spot and kind of a bad spot in terms of trade chips. Obviously a "chip" that good for getting Kendall or Stairs is different from a chip for wigginton which is in a different world from the kind of chips to get Linebrink or Greinke or Johan Santana or Teix or Dunn or Griffey. The Cubs have a lot of value variety, and a fair quantity of guys who you could include in a Wigginton-scale trade without missing much. Gallagher, Mateo, Petrick, Roquet, Veal, Cherry, Rapada, Cotts, and even Hart or Holliman could have varying degrees of value. None of those are guys we couldn't live without, if we got somebody useful in exchange. Obviousy Cotts, Hart, and Holliman are pretty long shots to ever help us. But Gallagher, Mateo, Petrick, Roquet Veal, and Cherry are all guys who could become useful for us if we keep them and they progress, perhaps extremely useful. If somebody wants an arm or two, we have at least some to offer, and it's not the end of the world. I think Roquet might be of surprising value. BA talked him up as throwing pretty hard. Not sure if it's really true. But his results this year are really good, and not inconsistent with him throwing hard enough to be a potential 8th inning guy. Miniscule ERA, high K's, zero HR's, strong GB/FB ratio. A reliever who keeps the ball in the park and K's a lot of guys, lots to like there. Walks could be lower, but they aren't unacceptable. Being an unfamiliar name who we didn't draft, I doubt Hendry would cry about losing him or get attacked by fans the way he might if he traded Veal or Gallagher. For players, Pie, Murton, Cedeno, Soto, Patterson, Kroeger, Moore, Fox, those are all guys who have varying potential to become major leaguers. The odds of some of them ever becoming solid big-league regular starters varies a lot, but there is some range of guys you could use depending on how good the guy you were trading for was. Part of the problem is that several of them are of value to us. Most of the better ones are essentially unblocked, and we may need them ourselves to fill our own holes long-term. A trade could reverse that, of course; if you trade for an established starting shortstop or catcher, than you could include Cedeno or Soto because they'd immediately be blocked. Or if you get a solid starting outfielder, then Murton is immediately blocked and becomes expendable. Sometimes those kinds of trades are the ones that work best, actually. Non-contender trades their proven but salaried catcher for your Soto; they have an immediate replacement. But a lot of those guys I don't really want to trade because I think they might well be useful starters for us next year and beyond. To me, I'd be leary of including any of Pie, Murton, Cedeno, or Soto. Any one of them could be starting for us next April. Or, frankly, perhaps even this October. Patterson, Moore, Kroeger, Fox, those guys seem unlikely to me to ever be asset starters. If you can get somebody for Eric that's useful, hopefully now and next year too, I wouldn't mind a lot. We've already got DeRosa, Fontenot, and Theriot all clogging up 2B. Patterson might someday be better, but that's iffy, and if he is, it may not be by much. Kroeger I wonder about. He's new to us, and obviously was a castoff this winter. Is this a guy who might actually be a big-league starting outfielder? Based on this year only, I'd think why not? But given his history, I wonder if he has much trade value if any?

Right on, that's the worst flaw in the whole rumor. No way a GM is giving a player updates on deals.

Soft-tossing finesse lefty. Not as fast as Mark Guthrie or Scott Eyre, but as fast or faster than Moyer.