craig

Flaherty's hitting has been very refreshing lately. He looks like he has a chance to be a good professional hitter. How much power he'll show, time will tell. But for now, at least, it seems at least plausible to hope that he'll have end up with decent game power. His defense has been a big and disappointing surprise to me. 10 errors in 30 games? And that's for a guy who I understood to be short on range in the first place? My take had been that while he wasn't going to be a big-range guy, that they thought he could be a very skilled, reliable guy with what he could reach. But if his range is mediocre and he's an error-factory besides, that doesn't look positive at all. Hopefully that will turn around soon, or else they'll get him to 2B ASAP and he'll be better there. I admit when we drafted him, I immediately assumed he was foremost a 2B prospect. That would seem to be one of the two positions where we don't know who will be playing it beyond next year (2B and CF), and both of which they will want a lefty hitters. I'm not suggesting that Flaherty, in short-season SS today, has any likelihood to be in the majors at 2B in April 010. But that may be a position that will not have a long-term fixture. But he'll have to be able to field it.

IIRC, Atkins didn't throw the cutter till last year, he started working on that late in the year at Tennessee. So that might be critical value pitch for him. I recall when Rich Hill was coming up, when he turned things on his cutter was working. There were lengthy discussions: one side said he's just a two-pitch guy, big-leaguers will sit on his fastball-curve and it won't work, that's why it worked in minors and for a while didn't in majors. But the use of the cutter gave him variety on his fastball, so when his cutter was good, they couldn't really just sit and mash. Hart had been a journeyman with a decent arm and decent strike-control. But last year when he developed a cutter and had it working, he transformed into a good pitcher. This year when his cutter isn't working, he gets ripped pretty good. When it is, he's got a shot. Samardz, the splitter starts being used a lot, and suddenly he became hard to hit. That extra wrinkle (well, combined with perhaps also hiding the ball better) combined a guy who was easy to read or to sit on into a guy who you couldn't so easily guess/read what was coming, and he became hard to hit. Adding one extra pitch, one extra wrinkle, can keep guys off balance better. Perhaps if Atkins has regular fastball (2-seam plus perhaps also 4-seam?), cutter, and slider, none are exceptional and none have great velocity or movement on their own, probably all somewhat average. But if he's mixing 3 pitches that all come out somewhat looking the same, but the cutter and fastball and slider all have somewhat different speeds and somewhat different movement, maybe that's enough to work with. And with strikes, maybe he can get enough 2-strike counts to have them fishing and K his share on a day when the cutter and slider are moving pretty well?

And 13 walks to go along with those. I'm not worried about the strikeouts. If he keeps up his walk rate, he'll be fine. If he keeps up a .516 batting average when he doesn't whiff, I won't be too worried about the strikeouts. If he keeps up a .474 BABIP, I won't be too worried about the strikeouts. I have a sneaking suspicion that he won't keep those numbers up, and when those come back to normal his K problem will be a problem. I think getting the K-rate down is essential to any real chance that he has. Obviously the K issue is interlinked to the power question. If he hits 30 HR's a year, 180 K's may be acceptable. (Adam Dunn format). But a guy with 180 K's a year probably won't be acceptable if he's hitting 13 HR's.

At draft he was scouted as having a very good fastball, projection to be faster; he was scouted to have decent control and projected to have three or more good big-league pitches. None of those thing, or those things that were projected, have been realized. He's got decent velocity but nothing special. He doesn't have decent control. And none of the pitches that were projected to be pretty good are good. O well.

Cal, have we gotten any notes past from Az Phil or anybody on what kind of stuff/velocity Searle has?

Agreed. I don't think I can ever remember the Cubs going without a 3rd catcher in September, whether they were contending or not, whether that 3rd catcher was any good or had any potential or not. If they clinch with a week to go, they might be happy to let Soto get some extra rest. If Soto or Blanco get hurt (which thankfully and somewhat unusually has not happened thus far), they want to have somebody ready and in baseball shape. If they let Koyie go home first week of September, but then need him on September 15, he'll be out of shape. Plus, with extra pitchers called up, having an extra bullpen glove helps, too. Can call him up and deroster him again once the season is done. As for Fox, I think he's pretty likely to get derostered after the season. He's a PH/DH/1B guy who's 26, they've got him in AA rather than AAA, he's an undisciplined hacker, and he's hitting only .268 on the minor-league season. I don't think you hold 40-man spots for 26-year-old AA DH's who hit .268. That said, he has actually improved this year at Tenn. After only 2 walks in 117 AB at Iowa, they sent him down and he's maybe gotten the message: in AA he's got 28 walks/268 AB, which is uncharacteristic for him. His IsoP at AA is over .250, and on the season he's got 21 HR in only 385 AB's, which is pretty good bombing. But I assume his day has kind of passed in the organization, if they took him at all seriously they'd have probably kept him or returned him to Iowa.

Will be interesting. Several factors: 1. Clubhouse is small. Baker at least always fussed about it getting too crowded with extra guys around. Not sure how many they want if they aren't actually likely to contribute. 2. Fleita likes to use callups as a reward to players, even if they won't play much. Just a developmental thing, to see what the majors is like, get familiar with the coaches, etc. 3. Size of lead. Right now with a 1-game lead that's much shrunk and with the team having played sub-.500 over the last month, the assumption is that it will be nip-and-tuck. But in the event that they were to have a bigger lead entering September, and have at least the possibility of opening up some margin with time to spare, they might want to have some bodies just so that they can give more rest to the regulars in advance of the playoffs. I'd think a 3rd catcher (Hill), an outfielder (Pie), and Hart are the only safe callups.

Jackson is certainly interesting thus far. Not to equal extend, but another surprise draftee thus far is Dan McDaniel. Another couple of clean innings tonight for Boise. In 13.1 innings, he's 4H-5BB-22K. He'll be 20 when next season opens, so relative to the college-oriented draft, he's one of the younger ones. I didn't get many draft notes on him, but did read one article that said he'd pitched through a rib injury for most of the season to disappointing results, before doing well in playoffs. The article also suggested that pre-season, before his health-related mediocrity, that he'd been projected to be a high-round pick, higher than the 12th or 14th round where the Cubs picked him. That was a local paper, of course, and what they say about "high-round" might mean mean much. But have any of you Boise video-cast guys seen him? Does he look very good? Is he pretty fast, or projectible, or what?

Karen, thanks for you recall on Carillo. Your profile, a guy who can go out every time and eat some innings without getting killed, even if he never looks very impressive, that seems to have been his mode most of this season as well. Until lately, when somehow he's gotten some really good lines, even if he doesn't look that jazzy. As you say, guys can get better. I tend to anticipate improvement from tall lanky "projectible" guys, not from shorter guys. But short guys can get faster too (Gallagher isn't as short as Carillo, but he wasn't a "projectible", and he got a lot faster.) And obviously short guys can tighten their slider and get more consistent with their change as well, or sometimes more easily, than taller guys. So hopefully Carillo's stuff has improved, and really has a chance to be big-league. Obviously he was more steady innings-wise at Peoria than some of those wildmen because his control was better. And obviously kids with good control don't need as much stuff to get results. So hopefully he'll end up better than we think.

Cal or any of our Peoria friends who may have seen Carillo last year at Peoria, do we know anything about this guy's stuff? He's got an ERA below 3 and a WHIP below 1 as a 21-year-old in high-A. Does he possibly have big-league stuff, or is that just a sub-average stuff control pitcher letting A-ball hitters get themselves out? I know he's not tall, and I recall late two years ago Karen (I think) reported that his fastball wasn't too hot. Being a short kid, he's never seemed very projectible. And while his walks are low, his K's are low, and with a flyball orientation and a fair share of HR's-allowed, he doesn't exactly profile (tonight notwithstanding) as an anti-HR guy. Some luck may factor. For a guy who gives up his share of HR hits, and strikes out rather few, his hits-allowed this season suggest a very unusually low BABIP-against. Just curious if anybody knows much about his stuff or his future potential?

I can't ever recall a guy going past 100 AB with only one walk, but now he's barely starting his second 100 AB's and he's already gotten his second. (He was at 101 AB, I think.) May have been intentional? Two outs, man at 2nd, one-run game? His positive IsoD is probably secure for the season now.

this would be the 4th straight game in which Samardz has had a career high in K's, counting ties. This is a short stretch, of course. I wouldn't be at all shocked if next three starts he gives up 14 runs in 12 innings with 3 K's and 8 walks. But it sure is an encouragement, and supports the idea that the Cub scouts were not insane to imagine that this kind of stuff might be at least possible. He's 23, in AAA, pretty young, time ahead of him, time for his control to improve. But it would seem something has changed a bit. Splitter has been mentioned, hiding the ball better has been mentioned, but something like that. Given that a one-year Maddux costs about $10, I'd guess that perhaps Samardz doesn't look like such a bad $10 gamble after all. Completely astonishing, I must say.

I think it's probably wrong to get excited about Rundle. Even with his hot streak, he's hitting only .221 on the season, and he's only recently gotten past the .300-mark for OBP. Guys who whiff so much, that scouts to me like a hole in his swing or a hole in his vision. Even in his career-fortnight at Boise, his 3rd pro year, he's still whiffing almost a quarter of the time. Weird things can happen, I understand that. But I think he's cooked. Another age question: Nelson "Neifi" Perez lists at 20 on minorleague baseball. I thought I'd read somewhere that he was 22. Am I misremembering and crazy? If he's really "only" 20, that combined with the enormous progress that he's made this year from last year makes him at least mildly interesting. 21% K-rate is still lousy, and 16K/1BB suggest some serious problems. But 21% K-rate is huge improvement over last year (30%), and the fact that he's "only" K-ing 21% despite obviously hacking rather indiscriminately (based on the one walk in 76 AB) might suggest that he actually does have some native ability to put his bat on the ball is he can reach it. Obviously having 17 or 28 hits be either HR's or XBH also speaks to some power, and he's got the power arm. Would sure be weird if he ended up actually being a prospect. At age 20, slim possiblity. At 22, much harder.

Question for Cal or anybody who might know: Caridad, the Dominican we signed from japan, has a good arm and OK walk control (although he lacks the breaking stuff for K-ball.) As I passed on from a report from two starts ago, he has a good arm, that at least on his best day clocks at 94-95 (and there has been talk that the Tennessee gun is slow, if anything.) On the Tennesse site, and I believe on the Cubs non-roster-invites site for spring training, he lists with a 1985 birthday. At age 22, with a good arm, and seemingly improving stuff as the year has progressed, and with the makings of an interesting changeup and breaking ball, he looks like a pretty interesting development project. First year in the American pros, good arm, and he's already doing better in AA than in A, that's a good trajectory with time to refine it all. But BBCube and minorleague baseball list him with a 1983 birthday. As a guy who'll turn 25 this October, he doesn't look nearly so interesting. Anybody know which it really is, or is more likely to be? I'm mixed. The optimist says that he's pretty raw, the Cubs might not have paid him to sign as a 24-year-old, and the Cubs might be more likely to get the dates right. And given how little pro experience he has, why would a guy who can throw 95 go unsigned well into his 20's? The negativist says that in past whenever there have been age issues, the older ages have always been more correct. Why would anybody fraud to get older, when he's starting in his 20's either way? And as a slim under 6-footer, perhaps he wasn't much of a pro prospect as a teenager. So maybe he didn't sign until in his 20's, and then by a Japanese team, because by then he was too old to interest American teams, and back when he was a teenager he was throwing 86 with no breaking ball. Anyway, if anybody knows anything about which is right or wrong, I'd love to know. I'd sure like to be assured that he's really 22, and a prospect, not 24.

A Bleacher Bums poster who goes to tons of Tenn games posted the following last week. Note that the gush report was after his last start, in which he had a career high of 6 K's. Usually he's a 1-2 K guy, so probably his change and breaking ball were working better than normal. Either that or his velocity was higher than usual. Still, it's interesting to read: "I saw Esmilano [sp] Caridad pitch and he is probably the most impressive pitcher the Smokies have had this year other than Jose Ceda. His fastball touches 95-96,he has a very good changeup,and throws a very good breaking ball. He's very small though and his control is erratic." Not sure the poster is the greatest analyst, or is remembering everybody. But he's seen lots of Donnie Veal over the last two seasons, and has seen Samardz a few times too. His velocity reports on Samardz were never as fast as that, and i can recall some questions about the gun there. Surprising that he thought the breaking ball and change looked good, given that Caridad is a no-K guy. But he's been somewhat interesting, and has improved over the summer.

Harrison is really doing well. One error in 23 games, that's good. 16BB/11 walks, that's good. .457 OBP, that's good. 11 XBH to 15 singles, that's good. .970 OPS, that's good. Just turned 21 last week, so he'll be 21 for most of next year. So despite being a college draft pick, I assume he'll skip to Daytona and at 21 will be reasonably young there. The defense, of course, is critical. I think BA questioned his defense, but I think that may have been more as a SS. As a little guy who won't play SS, he really needs to be fine/good at 2nd if he's ever going to start, and even for utility pretty tough if he can't play an acceptable 2nd. Lucas McKnight, the Cub scout who signed him, said his arm strength is average but is very accurate; "average" would preclude SS, but an average arm that's very accurate could be fine at 2nd. McKnight seemed to think he's got a chance to be a solid 2B. Obviously too small to project power. But hopefully a high walk low K guy can be an OBP factory table-setter. Perhaps a Theriot-like OBP guy, but the early returns (11 XBH in 23 games) raise the hope that Harrison might have more than Theriot-level power. Perhaps he'll be able to hit for average/OBP like Theriot, but hopefully Fontenot or Fukudome might be more his type in terms of power? Biggio is a HOFer, but if harrison turned into a Biggio type guy, that would be a nice model. Well, minus the base-stealing speed... or the gold glove defense.... or the HR's..... OK, maybe that's kind of ridiculous. Anyway, hope he keeps it up.

Cal, thanks much for the info from that Blake Parker article. Good slider with a 93-95 fastball as a secondary pitch is a combo that could be taken seriously. Thanks for the info, nice to know he's got a chance to have a good big-league fastball. On Samardz, Muskat answered a question about Samardzija with a rare bit of possible scouting info: "The right-hander has pitched well since he was promoted to Triple-A and the Cubs have seen progress (he's hiding the ball better, for example)." There have also been reports of the splitter working well recently. Also, a guy who went to the game today posted the following: "Sam pitched pretty well today. He is definately a thrower...consistently threw high or in the dirt. But the fact is, they didn't hit him besides the HR. He threw gas and even had a 2B." The "threw gas" is interesting. While BA always alludes to the 98 that he hit once or twice in college and a few times in spring training, I've sometimes wondered whether his velocity during real-season games was anything special. But the "threw gas", while hardly precise, sounds positive in that regard. The Samardz thing is pretty crazy. After 5 K/9 in AA, he's now at 9K/9IP in his 5 AAA starts. His last three have been 22K/19IP. And while I'm not sure, I'm somewhat guessing that 6 K may have been his personal best two starts ago when he reached that; 7 may have been his personal best last start; and 9 obviously was his personal best today.

Bonus can't be too far off from slot. With cal, I assume he'll take a while at Mesa to get in shape, then be in Boise for a while, and it will be well into August before he cameo's in full-season. Unless he's like untouchable, I'd be surprised if he appears above A-ball this summer. There's lots of time ahead in his career. But there's only so many more weeks of minor-league season left. I don't expect too much this season.

Perhaps. Still, a large fraction of big-league talent comes from there. It's going to be very difficult to compete without having a competitive stream of talent from there. If other teams are willing to pay what it takes to get good players, and we aren't, how do we compete? Shutting down in Latin puts us at a competitive disadvantage. We need to overcome that somehow. Maybe that's just being big spenders on FA. (That's worked recently; Fuku, DeRosa, Lilly, and Marquis have been invaluable. Maybe you're better off just spending on big-league FA's rather than 16-year-old Latin FA's.) Maybe that's Asian spending, maybe we'll get as much out of spending $1-2 there that other teams are getting spending $1-2 in Latin. Or maybe we make up for Latin shutdown by doing better in draft. Maybe we're just smarter than everybody else (hard to count on.) Or by superslotting. That hasn't been successful on Huseby and Rundle, but maybe Watkins it will? Who knows. Not sure how much superslotting we did this year. Obviously not for Gray. Point is, if the market is raising it's spending on Latin so that the cost is rising, either we need to spend like market to compete there, or we need to spend elsewhere, or else we'll end up being unlikely to compete on the playing field. Or perhaps we really are spending there, and have spend $3 on a dozen $250K guys? I have no idea.

True enough. Although it's hard to conclude that we've been generating many "nice prospects" out of the lower-bonus guys. Whatever we're doing, our production of Latin prospects who make it even far enough to still be starters in high-A or to still be viewed as major-league prospects by the time they are in high-A has been almost zero over the last years. Five years ago Pie made it to A+ as a prospect. And around 5 years ago we had Juan Mateo who made it into the upper minors and touched the bigs. We do get some; no stick Carlos Rojas made it to AA, although he was never a prospect. And after about 5 years scrubbing around in low-A, Chirinos is roster filling in A+. And it's not uncommon to pick up roster-filler Latins from other organizations (Mateo is scrubbing around in A+ now). But I think it's telling how few Latin prospects that we signed ourselves have cracked the top-20 list in the last half dozen years, and of those that did how unworthy they soon enough proved to be (Robert Hernandez probably the latest, I'm sure one of those years Alfredo Franciso made a top-25 before there was time for his actual play to prove that unjustifiable.) Whatever it is we're doing, it just doesn't seem to really be competing with what other teams do in terms of generating actual meaningful prospects.

J Pena probably has a pretty solid arm. He was one of a limited supply of DSL guys last summer who started every appearance, and ended at or near the top of the team in innings pitched. He improved during that season, and didn't have a lot of walks then or this year thus far. However, his K-rate then was awful, and it's been bad this year. That may reflect a guy who just isn't very interesting. But it may also be the profile for a Latin guy who signs with a good arm but no breaking ball, and needs to learn a breaking pitch as time goes by. Guzman didn't have much of a K-rate or breaking pitch in short-season either, or IIRC Cruz. I'm hoping, who knows. He may just be a mediocre guy with mediocre stuff. Jericho Jones, IIRC, was an awful K/BB guy in college. The fact that he hasn't whiffed that much yet is both surprising and encouraging. That he's not going to take any walks is consistent with his past. Hopefully he'll take a few. He was rated amongst BA's top-100 college prospects entering the season, and according to one account might have gone in the top 4-8 rounds if he'd been willing to sign as a pitcher. Very nice to see Cerda being so competitive at the plate. We'll see how he holds up over the summer. But it's been a while since I can recall an American teen draft pick hit well in Mesa during his draft summer. Obviously we don't draft and sign many HS players, and those that do sign are often either high-round guys who don't sign early enough to play much (harvey, Dopirak, Mark Reed, Vitters) or else later-round projects who just aren't that good. But I'm not sure I recall any American position draftee hitting well at Mesa during his draft summer since Luis Montanez, who was really good there. Which may be a reminder of how little it necessarily means. I guess Reed did well in a small sample size, after his Mesa season a lot of people were really gaga about his potential as a hitter. Again, a reminder of how little a small sample of Mesa success means. But hopefully Cerda will be different. I got a scouting report that suggests that Cerda looks very quick and athletic behind the plate, although obviously he's just a beginner. And that he looks bigger than some of his list weights. mlb listed him at 165 on the draft list; I believe a local paper or his HS or something said 180 when he signed. This 3rd-hand scouting report that I got said he looked bigger than 180. So perhaps he'll end up being solid and stocky enough to hit some balls pretty hard. I'm not much of an N Perez fan. Tall power hitters who K a lot usually turn out to be tall hitters who hit with power in BP but whiff a lot and rarely hit moving balls pitched by game pitchers very far. He's already 20, in Mesa, and hasn't taken a walk yet in 50+ AB, so tall power hitters with no plate discipline and no pitch recognition are even longer shots. That said, one slightly hopeful sign is that his K-rate is "down" to only slightly over 20%; last summer it was at 30%. That might be sample size fluke, but it's possible that the guy's pitch recognition and actual plate coverage has improved at least a little bit.

It's pretty amazing that Veal has as respectable an ERA as he does, at only 3.33. Not often that a guy with a WHIP of 1.5 and such a high HR-rate (11 HR/100 innings) can keep his ERA below 4, especially with a now rather mediocre K-rate besides.

Ping, thanks for your input. You've seen him, and been unimpressed. That's meaningful, obviously I haven't. Second, your latter post was pretty interesting; that implied that it wasn't until late in the season that his velocity was "up" to 88-91. That sounds really weak.

BA: Shafer had established himself as one of the premier pitching prospects for the 2008 draft midway through the 2007 season. Then he strained his elbow, which didn't require surgery but sidelined him for a month. His fastball hasn't been the same since. Shafer used to work from 91-94 mph with his fastball and now ranges from 88-91 mph. The diminished velocity hasn't made him less effective, however. His effortless delivery allows his heater to get on hitters quickly, and it enables him to live in the bottom of the strike zone. He has above-average command of his fastball, 12-to-6 curveball and changeup. Shafer has a solid 6-foot-4, 205-pound frame and his arm has been healthy since tweaking his elbow. He's no longer a candidate for the first round, but he could go in the second or third. Keith Law's #46 prospect: Summary: Shafer had abdomen surgery before the 2007 season, then hurt his elbow, leading to a disappointing sophomore season after he was named the Missouri Valley Conference's Pitcher of the Year as a freshman. He has easy velocity, working with a solid-average fastball with some sink, and an average changeup with good arm speed. He's extremely athletic, and his curveball projects as plus; it's sharp with good depth but isn't consistent... Craig's comment: I'm guessing that if BA lists him as ranging from 88-91, that's the "working" velocity. And anybody who works at 88-91 is going to have a few that touch 92 or 93 (or more). So again, I'm guessing that Shafer and Bristow this spring in reality probably had comparable velocity. And I'm guessing that the Cubs scouted Shafer as having the better fastball, based on the alleged "easy" velocity mentioned by both BA and Law, and the "get on hitters quickly" reference by BA, suggesting a greater effectiveness perhaps than is common for most pitchers with equivalent mph. Or, perhaps the easy might also suggest that if he muscles up and throws for the radar guns, perhaps he can do so? We'll see. Hopefully Bristow will end up with a consistent 91-94 hard sinker/cutter, which could be quite nice. And hopefully Shafer will end up back with an easy 90-94, with some surprise/deceptively-fast aspect, with some sink, and with nice location. Would sure be nice to have some of the draft choices this year really work out wonderfully. We're due for a draft like that, I think.

I didn't get the impression that Bristow's fastball was any faster than Shafer's current fastball, and my impression was that Shafer had a better chance to get notably faster. (If he recovers his former velocity. Maybe he lost some as a result of temporary arm issues that will completely resolve that still impacted this year but will completely resolve later. Or, maybe he lost some as a result of a mechanical maladjustment that was prompted by the arm stuff, and if he resolves that he'll be able to hit 94-95.) Of course, I've never seen them, just based off what I read. I trust the draft standing and the pre-draft rankings for the three guys represents their chances. Shafer appears to have a pretty good start on a breaking pitch and on control, and has stuff that may be OK. I'd guess that if he fails, most likely it will be because of inadequate stuff. Carpenter at times flashes a faster fastball, and perhaps also a sharper breaking pitch. How often he's meaningfully faster I don't know. His control is obviously well behind, and his injury questions may be even worse than Shafer's. I'd guess that if he fails, it might be because of injury; or more likely it might be because of wildness; or it might be because his fastball ends up not being fast enough to make up for an inconsistent breaking pitch. But my guess is that while Shafer's reason for failure would more likely be stuff that's just not good enough, that Carpenter's will be because of control (or health) that's just not good enough. For Bristow, the impression I got was that his velocity was inconsistent, sometimes OK but sometimes not, and that sometimes his fastball was very straight, and that his breaking stuff was pretty raw. So he could fail based on inadequate stuff or inadequate control. (Or of course arm problems, which seem to befall converts more often than regular pitchers.) Obviously I don't know anything, I've never seen any of these guys, not even once or not even on TV, and have never talked to any scout or person who has, so my info could be way off. I guess maybe partly it's a question of how BA-type scouting reports get written. For a Bristow type, I think they tend to over-inflate the velocity, and sometimes refer more to the "touches 90-92" stuff, even if the guy may not touch 92 very often and may work at 85-91 for 95% of their fastballs. But sometimes a more familiar, more seen guy get "works at 88-91", which sounds more mediocre. But the "works at 88-91" guy may actually throw just as hard or harder than the other, and perhaps with more sink/tail.