craig

Cales ends up scattering 7 hits and 4 runs over his inning, Tennessee down 6-2. Daytona has now buzzed through three innings, and Cashner with his best outing yet, he's allowed 3 hits through 3, but has gotten 3 K's without any walks, wild pitches, or hit batters. He's gotten one popout, but otherwise all the other balls in play have been groundouts or hits on the ground. Nice. Not to jinx him, but he's got a chance to go four today.

Daytona is actually playing tonight. Castro gets another single and gets thrown out stealing in the top of first, then Cashner quickly gives up a couple of hits and a run in the bottom, although he got through the entire inning with no walks, wild pitches, or hit batters. He's had an extended break through the rain. I'm going to guess he'll be able to get in three innings today, perhaps even sneak in four under his pitch count. I think Cales is either pretty overmatched or pretty badly out of rhythm at Tennessee. He's allowed 5 hits already and hasn't gotten out of his first inning.

Hey Nate, thanks for your feedback and regular input. You mentioned that Jeff Beliveau is slated to move back into the rotation. I'll probably jinx him by mentioning it, but he's been on quite a high-K's low-hits run. I'm guessing that his fastball is good-but-unexceptional velocity-wise, maybe in the typical 88-92 class, but that it moves a lot and that his breaking ball does also. I'm guessing that both move enough to be both hard to hit and hard to control. Am I close, or way off? If you can you tell us about what he throws and how fast; whether he's as wild as his stats suggest; and why he's so hard to hit, that would be much appreciated. Also, does he have a normal sort of delivery, or something funky that is hard to hit and hard to control? Finally, in terms of delivery, does he have a normal arm slot, or some side-arm that might make him tough on lefties and someday suit him as a LOOGY were he to make it all the way to the majors? thanks!

BBF guy reported a conversation with his friend who scouts with Baltimore, regarding Thomas. Key comments: 1. Defense is now average at all levels, even including turning the double. No reason at present to move to outfield. 2. Speed is above average, not as fast as Patterson but faster than Theriot. And has good baserunning instincts. 3. Has a slight uppercut that hasn't affected his contact. 4. Has been called out on strikes 12 times. Has obviously made an effort to go deeply into the count. My comment: those are all plus-plus-plus-plus comments. That his HR/power bump correlates some useful but not harmful lift is great. BA always says his speed is average, so the view that he's faster than Theriot, that's great. That his baserunning is good, that's nice (getting picked off twice on Monday made me wonder...) And mostly that his 2B defense is now looking average and big-league playable, that's the best of all. That his still high K-rate relates to being more patient (and perhaps also swinging for more power) is also good. Hope it's all true!

Agree with point about getting optionable utility guys and relievers from the system. Obviously the excitement over a potential utility in A- isn't going to match that of a potentially good starter. So I'm not sure "excited" would be the word, but I'm genuinely interested in harrison. I'm always genuinely interested in players who look like they can just hit. So while I am no scout or expert and haven't watched them, I would put Harrison much higher on my interest list than where UK had him.

I think he gets limited discussion in part because there isn't a lot to discuss or to project. We know what he can do: he can hit. And we know what he can't do: grow beyond 5'8", hit HR's, steal significant bases in the majors, or play SS. Even his 2B defense seems to be less promising than Lake or Flaherty etc. I'm not sure, but it may also be that his arm may preclude RF and perhaps also CF, I don't know. But it looks like he's probably a 2B/LF type. With his power limitation, it's hard to get fired up about him for LF. That said, hitting is the rarest and most valuable tool, and I am always interested in pure hitters. Guys who can really hit, you can put up with some less-than-gold-glove defense. He's not going to be perfect, but often teams end up choosing between imperfect players, and sometimes the guy who can flat-out hit ends up being the preferred choice.

Not sure I'm following exactly. But I think I your claim is pretty simple: he's a fly ball pitcher so he's more prone to HR's. I wonder. He's never allowed HR's. This is his third pro season, and he's allowed only 4 HR in around 150 innings. He was really good last year (3 HR in 67 innings), but he was much better his draft year (none) and this year (one). In 4 aluminum-bat college seasons of almost 200 innings, he allowed only 6 HR, which I think is also rather favorable. Maybe he really is sustainably anti-HR, for whatever reason? (Mind you, I don't have any great theory of why he should be....) Lambert has a remarkable and fun bbcube page: none of the 9 college/pro lines has an ERA above 3. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/L/Casey-Lambert-1.shtml Again, I don't know why he doesn't allow HR's. Maybe it's that very consistency; lots of HR's come not on good fastballs/curves but on bad ones, on mistakes. Perhaps he's just got unusually consistent control of the stuff he throws and rarely makes mistakes, even if none of the stuff ever looks exceptional? Or maybe his fastball has more life and run then we appreciate? Maybe he mixes and commands so well that hitters are off balance, and a lot of the air outs are weak off-balance pops and easy flies rather than rockets? Beats me.

Lambert is a totally puzzling case to me. I pictured him as a curveballing Loogy, but I don't think that jives so well. I assume a lefty curveballer will be hard on lefties, will strike people out on the curve, but will have control issues and will allow HR's when curve hangs or guys can sit on mild fastball. But all of that is wrong: 1. since his draft summer, lefties have hit him much better than righties. 2. This year he isn't K'ing many. 3. This year he's 10 walks/38 innings. 4. This year he's 1HR/38 innings, last year 3HR/67 innings. 5. This year he's been air-oriented. So either my scouting perception is pretty screwed up (almost certainly true), and/or his results this year are pretty weird and very likely not very sustainable (unfortunately that is probably true). His start hasn't gotten tons of attention, in large part because his K's are so low and we assume it's fluky to do well without K's. Probably true. But, hopefully not: if you don't walk people and you don't allow HR's, you don't need a lot of K's or a lucky BABIP to be effective. Probably the big question is whether he can actually keep the walks and the HR's down so well as he's done thus far.

Thanks much for your observations about the Daytona kids. sounds like you have seen a lot of action, and it's fantastic to get observations from somebody who has seen them. Again, thanks much, and I hope that you will post what you see and what you think more often. Thanks especially for the Searles report, if he's 90-93+, with the groundball action, that sounds fantastic, and as you say hardly "fringy". What would you say McDaniel is for velocity? Same kind or range, or not quite that fast? And, can you tell whether he's mostly fastball/breaking ball, or have you seen him throw what might be a changeup as well? One of the other pitchers of interest is Dolis. I assume he's got quite a good fastball, an interesting breaking ball, and major control problems. But I've never seen him and I'm kind of just guessing. have you seen him, and does that sound right?

Other guy at BBF saw Huseby the other day and said he looked good, no gun but thought he looked fast, had a good breaking pitch, had good control, and two of the three hits were infield hits. So that was encouraging. Unfortunately ping left before Beliveau went tonight. 8K/0H/4IP (2 walks). His previous outing was 3IP-6K-1H (2 walks). This is back to the Beli I recall from last summer, huge K's, lots of walks. after a slow start, in which his stuff obviously wasn't sharp and guys were getting hits off him, he's now sitting at 29K/15BB/23IP. Over his last 19 innings, it's 26K/14BB/11H/19IP.

Has he been unlucky? The BAA and K:BB look pretty solid to see the ERA that high. No, not at all. He's allowed 5 HR.

Good point. Assuming Vitters is promoted to Daytona, if Daytona is not in an August playoff race and is not going to be in September playoffs, but Tennessee is, I think it's not only possible but probable that Vitters would go up to Tennessee. They routinely promote interesting prospects in August to teams that are experiencing a playoff race or that will be experiencing extra playoff games and playoff pressure. I think that's a good move. Prospects get more games in which to play, they get exposed to teammates and coaches that they'll work with before and during the ensuing season, and they get exposed to playing under a little more pressure. Win-win-win.

I agree with your post, but to my knowledge they signed Pie for very little. I thought is was $50,000. Do I have that wrong? I would love to see them throw a lot of money at Sano. Of course, I don't know what the budget is and why... I think there have been mixed accounts regarding Pie. One spun it as a low-cost scouting sign, all Serra. A poster on BBF has a scout friend with Baltimore, who said that Pie was certainly well known to them and others before he signed, but that the Cubs spent aggressively to get him. My recall was that he thought (rightly or wrongly) that it was somewhere in the $125-250K range. I never got a real reconciliation between the two versions. One might be that Serra "found him" at 14 or whatever, but by signing time at 16 he was well known, so perhaps both perspectives are true. May also be that an American writing a story likes a story with the poor shoeless kid and the kind and clever scout, it makes a neat story, and perhaps rightly or wrongly there was a bit of embellishment or some other facts were left out that don't fit the romance of the story quite as well. And then it's also possible that Serra might perhaps embellish his own story a bit, the resourceful, clever, hard-working scout finding talent for nothing from the jungle.

Hart has 25K/6BB in 20 innings, normally we'd be gung-ho about a guy with those peripherals. Add in a 2.3 GO/AO ratio and we'd normally love it. He's given up a very high BABIP (unlucky?), and despite the GO/AO ratio, he's given up too many HR's (3 in 20 innings). I wouldn't be surprised if he puts together a nice run, and some of his bad luck bounces back with some good luck. Or maybe his stuff is such that he just can't get any popups or routine flyballs, that either it's a groundball or else a rocket. Yesterday's game reminds me that I'm still interested.

Is that picture Dolis?

Drafting as late as they are in rounds 1 and 2 (sandwich pick area for their 1st...), I'm sure they need to go totally BPA. It will be hard enough to get an excellent player, so take the best guy you can. But I wonder if need doesn't impact how they scout and who they take in rounds 5-15. There are so many players of roughly similar overall talent in that area, it takes a lot of time to scout them all and to separate who's best. I think teams may sometimes focus extra scouting time on players who fit their needs. Last year, pitching was clearly ID'd as a need area, despite what was touted as a weak draft for pitchers. But the Cubs seemed to do a good job drafting jackson, Coleman, McDaniel. It wasn't too long ago that SS/middle infield had been ID'd as a need area. Now with Castro, Lake, Lee, watkins, and also Flaherty, Thomas, Kemp, Harrison, and Cerda, it seems there are plenty of candidates to play SS/2B, with some of them looking like they might be able to stick at SS rather than outgrow it. So I wouldn't expect SS to be a major target need. One area that I recall either Fleita or Wilken mentioning as an area lacking in system depth coming out of camp was outfield. Sori, Bradley, Fuku, Johnson are all in the 30's, and with Pie, Guyer, Rundle, and probably Colvin all disappointing, I think they will really be looking for outfielders wherever they can. Again, 1st round you have to go BPA for sure, but I'd guess that BPA being equal, an outfielder will get the benefit of the doubt. And hopefully especially one with some power potential. Another is obviously LHP.

I think they forgot the season started in April...

I don't know, he was working out a lot with the Daytona squad in the spring. That might suggest he'd be in line for a quicker promotion. Interesting point, and possible for sure. He may get promoted. Or, he might not! (Profound, eh?? He will or he won't, I'll be right for sure!) I guess I'm just saying that I won't be surprised if he's still at Peoria on August 1, even if he's still hitting in the .310-.350 range, with an OPS in the .850-.950 range. My thinking partly expects that his current average is high following a hot two days in which he's produced 1/3 of his power, but that his average will probably not remain over .350. My guess is that when he leaves Peoria, his overall average will be lower than .352, not higher. (Although it wouldn't at all surprise me if his OPS was as high or higher than his current .926). I can certainly make the opposite argument, though. Here is a talented hitter getting his first taste of full-season. He hit .302 in April, with little power (.726 OPS). But in May he's hitting .407 with 4 HR's (should be 5), a .678 slugging percentage, and a 1.104 OPS. Perhaps May is a better predictor than April; he's adjusted, and hitters typically do better in warmer weather upcoming. So perhaps his production from here is more likely to approach the 1.104-OPS May guy than the .726-OPS April guy. So if he continues as a 1.000+ guy for future weeks, then it's increasingly likely that he'll get promoted. Another factor may involve the Cubs view on his maturity and his developmental situation. Is he a personality who is best when he's comfortable and confident and experiencing success; is that the best environment for maximal development? Or is he a personality who might not listen to instruction if he sustains this kind of success? Might getting promoted and perhaps humbled a bit put him in a better frame of mind to listen or make needed adjustments? I have no idea. (Although there are zero indications that motivation or listening is an issue for him.) Another factor may or may not involve long-term Cub big-league needs. Lee's big contract expires after 010. Perhaps they'd like to push Vitters to see whether he might not be ready as soon as 2011. If he could handle Daytona well this summer, and then excel at AA next summer, he could then be available for a corner spot in 011. But I have no idea whether Fleita or Hendry allow themselves to let such considerations impact their development maneuvers. Personally I hope they don't. He's 33 games into full-season, and they've allowed him to get his feet wet with a 3 walk-133 AB ratio. Horrible. As ping has noted, he's likely to fill out considerably, eventually. I expect he will need to go through some non-trivial changes, both in terms of his pitch selection and approach, as well as physically, before he approaches the hitter or reliable fielder I hope he becomes. I'd rather they gave him plenty of time.

I have Vitters-Thomas 1-2. :D However, Castro is probably #3 after that. I'd really like to know more about him before jumping onto his bandwagon head-first. It's a bit of a pain to find any decent scouting reports out there on him. Namely, I'd like to know whether he's still growing into his body, whether he's been hitting the ball into play with authority or punch and Judy style, and whether he is working long at bats or swinging away early in the count. With Thomas, there's a lot more information out there about him. I feel more comfortable saying that his success this season is sustainable than I do with Castro. The scouting has Castro as a SS with the tools to excel there defensively. So I think his defense projects higher than Thomas's does. Although with 12 errors already, having tools and being able to actually execute are different. (Cedeno was viewed as this wonderful defender prospect back in A-ball, too, but he never outgrew the errors.) I've read some stuff on Castro suggesting that he doesn't project to get a lot bigger; so unclear whether he projects to hit 6 or 16 or 24 HR's. He obviously doesn't work the count at this point; if you want to work counts in A ball, you can take more than 2 walks per month. He's a total non-walker now. But Thomas has always and remains a high-K guy; Castro is a low-K guy. Often guys with the gift of pitch recognition don't K much, and when they eventually set their mind to it have the capacity to work the count. So I'd think that as a potentially good-fielding SS who can hit, I'd rather trade Thomas than Castro at this point. (We've got about six 2B prospects in the system; not so many SS's.) On Vitters, they have typically tried to keep a lot of guys with the same team all year during their first season in full-season ball. I wouldn't be surprised if he stays at Peoria all year, at into August at least. Guyer didn't really hit for much average at Peoria last year. The notion was that he'd improved, as evidenced by Mesa action. But it appears that he hans't improved all that much. Hard to take him very seriously now.

Talented wildman night, with Mateo, Dolis, and Archer.

Unfortunately he actually has 12 errors, not 7.

I don't really agree with the comfort that "since his history indicates that his control has been fine, I have a tendency not to panic". I am much more concerned about his control than you. His history is limited, but IIRC his history in junior college was quite wild; his best controlled period of his career was at TCU last year, and he still walked 27 in 54 innings, with a bunch of wild pitches (7), and I don't know how many HBP. So his best period of proven control was still rather wild, and that was a small sample size. Since then, he bounced back with 23 walks in 20 pro innings last summer. (Usually they aren't tinkering during the draft summer, they do that afterwards.) So basically in his career year (to date) last year, he had 50 walks in 74 innings, plus many additional wildman wild pitches and HBP. So even in his best control year, he still was around one wild-event per inning. And now he's bouncing back again with an average of at least one wild-event per inning. So yes, I have to admit I'm pretty concerned about it. Control is crucial. The fact that he's shown none since signing is a major worry to me. I appreciate that it doesn't mean he won't improve. But he had a slider in college. So the concept of using throwing the fastball and the slider, those aren't novel for him. The fact that he can't get them over is not routine and normal for highly successful prospects, that's a worry. That he can't get his newer change over, that's more understandable. Another angle on this: Cashner is pretty much always wild. This is different somewhat from a guy like Carpenter, who goes wild in streaks but also shows streaks where he is around the plate and can throw strikes. If a guy is like Carpenter, who can throw four pretty controlled innings and then go completely haywire in the fifth, I think it's more plausible that with time he'll be able to lock into the good and diagnose/correct what happens when he goes totally haywire. But Cashner seems more consistently wild almost all the time, and that's a lot harder to correct. Hopefully I'm being paranoid, and over the next couple of starts we'll see some 6K/1BB, 7K/2BB games where he is able to start getting through 4 and 5 innings, and start to have the wildman stuff become more the exception than the rule.

I don't really agree with the comfort that "since his history indicates that his control has been fine, I have a tendency not to panic". I am much more concerned about his control than you. His history is limited, but IIRC his history in junior college was quite wild; his best controlled period of his career was at TCU last year, and he still walked 27 in 54 innings, with a bunch of wild pitches (7), and I don't know how many HBP. So his best period of proven control was still rather wild, and that was a small sample size. Since then, he bounced back with 23 walks in 20 pro innings last summer. (Usually they aren't tinkering during the draft summer, they do that afterwards.) So basically in his career year (to date) last year, he had 50 walks in 74 innings, plus many additional wildman wild pitches and HBP. So even in his best control year, he still was around one wild-event per inning. And now he's bouncing back again with an average of at least one wild-event per inning. So yes, I have to admit I'm pretty concerned about it. Control is crucial. The fact that he's shown none since signing is a major worry to me. I appreciate that it doesn't mean he won't improve. But he had a slider in college. So the concept of using throwing the fastball and the slider, those aren't novel for him. The fact that he can't get them over is not routine and normal for highly successful prospects.

Hopefully all of this year. He needs to work on those secondary pitches and also work on his control. And I haven't given up hope that he might stick as a starter though he's eventually going to have to get into the 4th inning for that to happen.. Cashner is really wild. Last year he walked more a batter per inning (as a pro; he hadn't been equally wild in college). This year he's still really wild; I don't know where they record how many guys he's hit, but when you sum up walks, wild pitches, and HBP, he's averaging more than a wild-event per inning. And the extraordinary wildness is also why he's exhausting his pitch count within 2 or 3 innings. That kind of wildness doesn't play in either rotation or relief. He's in a minor-league rotation to pitch and try to get a hint of control. How much control he develops will dictate how far he goes and in what role he pitches, if he ever gets enough to pitch productively in the majors.

Cal, question for you regarding your scouting info. I read a gaub interview from April 1. He said last season early he was 88-90, by late season he was 91-92, and supposedly was clocked at 94 once or twice late last season. he said he hoped to get back up to his pre-surg 95 again, but as of April 1 that didn't seem to be reality. Recently you made a post regarding Gaub in which you alluded to 95 mph fastball, IIRC. Have you gotten some info that he's been throwing that hard this year? Or is that from wilken or something? Or is that basically the same touched-94-late-last-year info that I read? I'd love to hear that he really is popping 94-95, and more than once a month, and that he's comfortably working in the 91-94 range now.