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cheapseats

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Everything posted by cheapseats

  1. cheapseats
    And tends to pitch best when confined to 1 inning at a time.
  2. cheapseats
    Once Lee is back, we'll run the table for the rest of the season. Lee is good for 10, 12, maybe 15 wins by himself.
  3. cheapseats
    So you'd rather exert energy dissecting comments of those who get riled up by Baker comments? Baker is using injuries as an excuse, and he's implying that if everyone were healthy, he'd be managing this team to a .500 record.
  4. cheapseats
    First, it's probably best to start by distinguishing between weak protection and strong protection: http://www.baseball1.com/faqs/protection-faq.html I totally believe that weak protection exists, but I'm not sure what difference it would have made for Aramis, who normally hits behind Lee, anyway. If anything, having Aramis in the lineup makes pitchers less likely to walk Lee, but not vice versa. I don't believe in "strong protection" - at least, not on the big league level - and there's a good but long article on that here: http://www.baseball1.com/bb-data/grabiner/protstudy.html
  5. cheapseats
    2006 VORP as Cubs: Mabry -7.5; Neifi -7.3; Hairston -6.0 That's a combined 2 losses contributed by 3 bench players... VORP takes position into account, though. Walker's offensive numbers, for example, would give him a higher VORP as a 2B than as a 1B. Mabry has been bad, but moving Walker to first so Neifi and Hairston could get more playing time was pretty stupid.
  6. cheapseats
    If Oswalt were to pitch like he did in 2005 for the next 5 years, you could argue that his new deal os reasonable. PECOTA sees him declining slightly but steadily over the next 5 years. He projects to be worth $11-$12 million in 2007 but only $6 million in 2010. Of course, it's usually wise to overpay if doing so will lock up a player who will mean going further in the postseason (which generates more revenue through ticket sales, merchandise sales, etc); if the Royals were giving Oswalt this contract it would be stupid of them, but if the Red Sox, Mets, etc were doing so it could work out to be defensible. If the Astros don't make the playoffs regularly over the next 5 years, it's a bad deal. Personally, I don't think their core is strong enough to make them real contenders.
  7. cheapseats
    I think what he meant was that Walker shouldn't have been getting AB's at 1st base. He should have been getting them at 2nd. Bad as Mabry has been (and he's been awful), he's been better than Neifi and Hairston this year. And his defense at first would have been better than Walker's. I really think that's what Rogers meant, but I realize Rogers didn't make that clear in the column.
  8. cheapseats
    DLee's offensive numbers are not intangibles. There has been work that shows that "protection" is largely a myth. It's not an intangible. It can be measured. Lee's defense at first can be measured. It's not an intangible.
  9. cheapseats
    I know that there's already a thread on Baker's estimate that DLee's injury cost the Cubs 10-15 games, but this article is so good I think it deserves its own thread (mods feel free to merge if necessary): Phil Rogers in today's Trib I was about to completely give up on Rogers, but he gets it right in this article.
  10. cheapseats
    Neifi would have saved us. :cry:
  11. cheapseats
    The ball snakes out there, dude. The team was rattled by the Cubs fans who made the trip to Pittsburgh to create an unfriendly environment. Some of the players got hate mail during the game.
  12. cheapseats
    Amen.
  13. cheapseats
    Game of the Year?
  14. cheapseats
    Good question. He's played enough games in AAA to project fairly accurately, and he doesn't ever project to be more than a 1-win player. It was ridiculous to trade for him when we already had Theriot, Fontenot, Coats, etc who could have just as easily been utility players.
  15. cheapseats
    Please elaborate. :lol:
  16. cheapseats
    haha
  17. cheapseats
    Had Cota taken 2nd, Snell would have scored on the single.
  18. cheapseats
    haha
  19. cheapseats
    Yes.
  20. cheapseats
    haha
  21. cheapseats
    $1400???? That article was saying like around $200 for world series tickets! :shock: The $1400 would cover all playoff games, would it not? Therefore, the price per game would be somewhere around $127.
  22. cheapseats
    His WARP was 10.6 last year, so Lee added 10-11 wins above a replacement last year. However, not many expected him to replicate his 2005. The PECOTA system projected him at 6.8 wins this season. If Lee had given them an extra 7 wins this year, they'd still be at 61-70 and in 5th place in the NL Central. Instead of being the 2nd worst team in the NL, they'd be the 3rd worst. Nice excuse, Dusty.
  23. cheapseats
    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2227115
  24. cheapseats
    Neifi sucks.
  25. cheapseats
    According to medical reports, Lee is completely healed.
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