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I'm aware of Dewan's rating of Jones in RF, but every other advanced metric rates him average or better than average. My bet is that Dewan's method doesn't calculate the park effect for RF at the Metrodome very well. Check out the dimensions of the Metrodome: http://www.baseball-statistics.com/Ballparks/Minn/index.htm There is very little area to cover in RF there because of the strange shape of the park. There is also very little foul territory. Dewan himself will tell you that he has more faith in his numbers for infielders (mainly due to varying ballpark dimensions) than he does for outfielders, and I figure that Dewan's method unfairly penalizes those who play RF in the Metrodome. Jones has been ranked as an average to above average CF by Davenport fielding translations, UZR, PMR, and Chris Dial's metric: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/jonesja04.php http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/defensive_rankings_by_position_nl_aug_27/ http://www.tangotiger.net/UZR0003.html http://www.baseballmusings.com/ As much as I like Dewan's book, when the other defensive metrics all disagree with his rating, I think his evaluation should be re-examined. If you want to stick with Dewan's rating, that's fine, I guess, but if Jacque isn't going to play CF for the Cubs this year, then who is? Soriano is apparently going to play RF. Drew? Would have been a good choice, but Hendry's not interested. Lugo? He's played one game in CF. I'd love him at SS, though. Erstad? He's a below average hitter and would be injured after the first homestand. Finley? No thanks. Roberts? I'd be OK with a short-term contract. Lofton? I'd be OK with a short-term contract. Pie? Probably needs another year in the minors. I don't think Jacque would be a great CF, but Wrigley isn't a particularly tough place to play CF. About 2.06 balls were hit to Jacque last year, and only 2.37 were hit to Pierre per game, so maybe once every three games would Jacque see more action in center than in left. I'm not a big Jones fan, but outside of Lofton, I really don't see a better choice for CF. If I've missed an option, just let me know.

Yeah, Frank Thomas shows what can happen in eight years when you are a 270 pound first baseman with foot injuries. Jacque doesn't have the same body type, plays a different position, doesn't have the injury history, and is seven or eight years younger. There are lots of players who have moved to and from CF in the past few years. Why not compare him to one of those? Several advanced metrics show Jacques as having average to above average range. As for his only having played 14 games in CF since 2000, maybe that has something to do with Torii Hunter and Juan Pierre, no? Jacques would be an adequate defensive CF, and his bat would be an asset in that position. Frankly, if the Cubs are going to start both Jacques and Soriano, one of them should be playing CF. If Soriano were to continue to put up his 2006 numbers, no one would have a problem with him as a corner outfielder, but that's not going to happen. I think you're the one grabbing at straws here.

so if Zips show Aram repeating his numbers from last year, and PECOTA isn't out yet, which projections are showing his gradual decline? The newest PECOTA isn't out yet. The most recent, which came out before the 2006 season, had detailed projections for 2006 and less detailed projections for 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010. PECOTA's weighted mean projection for Aramis's OPS was within 9 points of his actual OPS, fwiw. Feel free to expect improvement from Aramis if you want.

Yeah but that was eight years ago. frank thomas was still playing first base eight years ago, you wouldn't want him there now. Eight years ago, Jacques was Frank's age. Good comparison. And Jacques played 10 games in CF as recently as 2005 and was a regular as recently as 2000. I'm not sure where you got "eight years ago." Your other points may or may not be valid, but making inaccurate statements and using strawman arguments makes one less likely to take them seriously.

I'd expand that statement to say that GM's and managers need to know different things (or more things) than players. Edit: And that's why MLB playing experience shouldn't be necessary to manage.

So you did learn something by consulting a statbook? :twisted: Just kidding. Yeah, there are a lot of people making money writing for newspapers and offering opinion for TV networks that don't realize Lee is a good baserunner. When he was with the White Sox, they wanted him to run more often.

I'm glad someone agrees. I don't understand the infatuation with Lugo in a position that he's played a total of 1 time in his Major League career, especially when it's more vital that we upgrade at SS than it is in OF. I agree, Jones has at least played 159 games in CF. Not to mention the fact that Jones had a better year than Lugo last year. Yep. And IIRC, Jacque was a CF until he got to the majors and moved to RF for Torii Hunter. I'm not a big fan of Jones, but I argued last year that he'd be more of an asset in CF than RF.

A very good offensive catcher during his career? He's been a very good offensive catcher for one year: 2004. His ability to switch hit isn't particularly helpful if he's not a good hitter from either side. See: Perez, Neifi. His high-contact low strikeout approach is something the Brewers offense has been missing? Yeah, that worked so well for the Cubs last year. Enjoy the double plays.

The only team that Lee hit better than the Cubs: the Astros. I wonder if teams generally value a player who has had greatsuccess against them more than they value a player who hasn't?

Bad trade for Milwaukee. Good news for those of us who think Cubs could contend within the division.

But Aramis's OBP is always driven by his batting average. His IsoD might have been up this year, but it's still low for a slugger like Aramis. Of the top 25 batters in OPS last year, Aramis was in the bottom 16% in IsoD. Of the top 40, he was in the bottom 18%. I like Aramis, and I want him to do well, but I tend to agree with the projections that show him in a gradual decline. I hope I'm wrong, but I think we've already seen the best we'll see from him. and by gradual decline you mean slight increase? 2006 actual - .912 2007 Zips - .914 As I've already stated, ZIPS sees him performing at about last year's level, but PECOTA projects a gradual decline from 2007 to 2010. ah, so we'll disregard the one that hurts your argument and emphasize the one that helps. why then did you not say "one projection shows him in gradual decline?" why frame it so all projections show him on the decline? will you show me where to find or send me PECOTA projections please? In my first comment in this thread, I clearly stated that ZIPS predicts he'll replicate his 2006 season next year. And when I think we've already seen his best, I mean that literally. I don't necessarily expect a decline next year, but I don't expect greater production, either. PECOTA projections are available to BP subscribers. If you're thinking about a subscription, I highly recommend it. The newest projections probably won't come out until early 2007.

I never implied that you said his IsoD was good. In fact, I didn't think you were arguing that his plate discipline is actually improving. I was simply pointing out that throughout his career, his OBP has been dependent on his batting average. Such hitters normally face steeper declines than those who walk more often. That doesn't mean that Aramis won't be a useful player for a long time. His #1 comp in PECOTA is Tony Perez, who played 16 seasons after turning 28.

But Aramis's OBP is always driven by his batting average. His IsoD might have been up this year, but it's still low for a slugger like Aramis. Of the top 25 batters in OPS last year, Aramis was in the bottom 16% in IsoD. Of the top 40, he was in the bottom 18%. I like Aramis, and I want him to do well, but I tend to agree with the projections that show him in a gradual decline. I hope I'm wrong, but I think we've already seen the best we'll see from him. and by gradual decline you mean slight increase? 2006 actual - .912 2007 Zips - .914 As I've already stated, ZIPS sees him performing at about last year's level, but PECOTA projects a gradual decline from 2007 to 2010.

But Aramis's OBP is always driven by his batting average. His IsoD might have been up this year, but it's still low for a slugger like Aramis. Of the top 25 batters in OPS last year, Aramis was in the bottom 16% in IsoD. Of the top 40, he was in the bottom 18%. I like Aramis, and I want him to do well, but I tend to agree with the projections that show him in a gradual decline. I hope I'm wrong, but I think we've already seen the best we'll see from him.

Thanks. I was wondering when/if they would do that. I didn't notice that it had already been done.

I'm really surprised if that's true. I thought they'd have no interest. I don't expect them to be very serious about Zito, and I think Zito will disappoint if he goes to a team with a hitter's park.

? Why would you expect improvement from Aramis when his OBP and SLG dropped in 2005 and 2006? PECOTA projects that Aramis will decline each year. ZIPS projects him to pretty much replicate his 2006 numbers. I'll be happy if Aramis can reproduce his last season. Edit: And I know Aramis had horrible luck at the beginning of 2006, but his BABIP didn't end up much lower than his career average by the end of the season, and his line drive percentage decreased in both 2005 and 2006. His BABIP wasn't really too far out of line considering his line drive percentage. if PECOTA and Zips projections are out for 2007 I would love to see them so I can plug them into the same calculator instead of using three year splits. please provide a link or send them to me. I will do my novice best to adjust those stats for not playing 162 as well. also, are you implying that Aramis had better than average luck after May? if so, why are you using career? would his 03-05 be a more appropriate comparison for that? 2007 Cubs Zips No ZIPS for Derosa or Soriano yet.

Bill James? The father of modern sabermetrics? I don't really know how to say this, but he's kind of a big deal. I will grant that his projection models aren't as wonderful as systems like PECOTA, but it's still a wonderful sign that his system sees Rich Hill as probably deserving at least some down-ballot Cy Young consideration. If I recall correctly, PECOTA had Hill putting up some outrageous numbers on the high end as well. you're correct. pecota's 'optimistic' projection for hill would make him the best starter in the NL. I'm not sure who you're thinking of, but PECOTA was not too high on Rich Hill. It had Hill pegged as a less than stellar starter in 2006 - a VORP of just over 1. At the 90th percentile he only had a projected VORP of 24. It's ZIPS that has projected good things for Hill in 2007. New PECOTA projections probably won't be out for a few months. I'll be interested to see what it predicts for 07.

I'd love Sammy if he was in the batter's box instead of Jacque Jones with a lefty on the mound.

? Why would you expect improvement from Aramis when his OBP and SLG dropped in 2005 and 2006? PECOTA projects that Aramis will decline each year. ZIPS projects him to pretty much replicate his 2006 numbers. I'll be happy if Aramis can reproduce his last season. Edit: And I know Aramis had horrible luck at the beginning of 2006, but his BABIP didn't end up much lower than his career average by the end of the season, and his line drive percentage decreased in both 2005 and 2006. His BABIP wasn't really too far out of line considering his line drive percentage.

Seconded.

bounce back? He lead the league in hits. That's about as good as he gets Don't forget that he was the 2006 leader in groundballs.

:D Me, too. The Grady Little signing column was a classic.

Again, the 2004 received a year from Alou that was even better than Soriano's 2006. We got better production from 2B than we should expect from Derosa. Aramis had the best year of his career (better than 2005 or 2006 by any standard). And that team didn't score 800 runs and wasn't in the top 5 in the NL. We need another bat if we want to get to the level you envision.

Exactly. We were second-to-last in runs scored in the NL last year, and all of a sudden some people think we have a top-tier offense. On top of that, there are some who believe we're suddenly contenders, even though we gave up the second highest number of runs in the NL last year. There is still a lot of work to do before this team is built to score more runs than it gives up.