cheapseats

Then why did we trade Neifi Perez? According to John Dewan's Fielding Bible and many other advanced metrics, Neifi is a better fielder than Izturis. Note that I'm not advocating either player for the position. This is simply untrue. Gonzalez was one of the best defensive shortstops in the game. His Davenport rate of 114 in 2003 is four runs better than Izturis's best year. And Gonzalez had many years better than that. Izturis, at his best, is Alex Gonzalez without the pop.

If I were the Marlins, I'd ask for Pence over Taveras. The Marlins see CF as their big hole to fill, and while Pence has played a good bit of CF, his defense there doesn't measure up to what the Marlins are looking for. I think Pence is now in RF. I bet Pie and a couple of prospects would get Willis. If I were the Marlins, I'd prefer Pie to Melky Cabrera, and I'm not that high on Pie.

No, Earl Weaver is right about the benefits of a 4-man rotation. There's been extensive research that shows a 4-man rotation is no more likely to cause injury to pitchers than a 5-man rotation. 5-man rotations started with the Dodgers many years ago, IIRC, and it was because they had 5 good starters, not because they were concerned about injury. I know the Reds tried it a few years ago, but it didn't work so well, mainly because their manager was leaving starters in for 130+ pitches. The key is strictly limiting pitches per start. If pitchers are managed correctly, they'll be more effective and they'll actually see more innings even if they're on a low pitch count. It makes sense to have your best pitchers throw the most innings, right? The Cubs won't do it because they're among the most conservative teams in a conservative sport, but Will Carroll indicated that one MLB team is looking at doing it in 2007. Rany Jazayerli's research is available to BP subscribers here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1596 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1605 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1622

If it came down to it, I couldn't see him rejecting a trade here. I know I'd love to have him, but he's said he'd only waive his clause for the Yankees, Red Sox, or a team on the west coast. There's not a lot of incentive for him to switch teams unless his new team were to renegotiate his already hefty contract. But likes Pedro just said, it's probably a moot point because he doesn't make enough contact and he's not clutch.

Right. Will Carroll is the best in the business as far as baseball injuries go, but he wasn't giving any new info on Prior, just guessing at what his future holds.

The Cubs aren't one of the teams that Burrell has said he'd waive his no-trade clause for. I don't think he's a realistic possibility.

One of the guys at BP, I think it was Joe Sheehan, called Meche the Gary Mathews Jr. of pitchers the other day. I think that's appropriate.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1089&position=P

This wouldn't even be a totally new approach. It's already done by several teams in the minors. It's done to save young arms, but I would imagine that it also makes the tandem pitchers more effective because they should only have to go through the opposing lineup twice at most.

C-Patt from 2003 or 2005? I'm thinking more like 2004 or 2006.

Can we make non-Cubs predictions? I predict Rocco Baldelli puts up CPatt-like numbers this year. Really. :D

I've been trying to remember when Theriot quit switch hitting. Do you know? Theriot has exhibited very good plate discipline throughout his career. If he could hit .280, I'd expect him to have a .350 OBP. If I'm remembering correctly, it was about 2 years ago, but I could be off on that one. And I agree that his plate discipline is what makes him attractive, and a surer bet to at least contribute something offensively (in comparison to Cedeno and Izturis, who would probably have NO value). However, while you're probably right about the .280/.350 thing, I have my doubts as to whether he could hit .280 in a full ML season. Well, that's the question. For what it's worth, his BABIP was maybe a little low considering his great line drive percentage last year. If Hendry thinks Derosa can keep up his high line drive percentage, why not Theriot?

Yeah, I thought he was one of the good ones, but he looks like a Hendry type.

I've been trying to remember when Theriot quit switch hitting. Do you know? Theriot has exhibited very good plate discipline throughout his career. If he could hit .280, I'd expect him to have a .350 OBP.

Yeah, Doug. The problem with the Brewers is that they didn't bunt well enough last year.

That would only be a foolish move if he were guaranteed to have another year like last year. And he's not. I tend to agree. Sometimes I sense an assumption that contracts will continue to increase each offseason, but that hasn't been the case historically. If I were V Wells, I'd at least negotiate.

I guess sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. :twisted:

Lugo's stats vs the NL are almost meaningless. He has 3385 career at bats. Why would you only look at 146 of them? As for defense, fielding percentage is a terrible way to judge a player's defensive ability. Most metrics have Lugo as a much better defensive shortstop than Renteria, for example. I think there's little question that Renteria is a better hitter, but as stated above, he's not so hot defensively. He ranks below average according to The Fielding Bible, PMR, Davenport's metric, Chris Dial's metric, etc. Don't get me wrong, I'd still love to have Renteria, but I'm not sure how you can promise that the Cubs would be a better team with Renteria and Hudson without knowing what we'd have to give up to get them. The Cubs definitely need a better SS than Izturis, but why would the shortstop have to hit second? Neifi Perez hit second, and he hit like Number 2. Hehe. :oops:

Wow. I'd use my money elsewhere if I were Baltimore's GM.

If we'd had a competent front office, Hendry would have been done long ago.

Useless fact: I sat next to a girl at a Cubs/Mets game (the one Leicester started) in 2005 who had a friend who got pregnant by Wilkerson. Maybe Wilkerson would like to come to Chicago to be closer to his family? :wink:

I wouldn't be surprised for Hall's OBP to drop about ten points next year, but I'd love to have him anyway.

Vizquel really did have a good year last year, but I can't imagine him being more than a one-year plan.

Drew believes he'd be less likely to get injured in center because he won't have to worry about running into walls chasing foul balls. Take that for what it's worth. I'd love to have Wells, but I shudder to think what it would take to get him, and I imagine that the Jays will decide to make a strong effort to resign him the way the market is moving. I want no part of Baldelli. Some people here don't see the point of looking at BABIP, but Baldelli is the poster boy for the usefulness of that stat. When he made contact last year, he hit line drives only 15.6% of the time, but he had a .338 BABIP. The rule of thumb is that a player's BABIP should be line drive percentage plus .120. Without his unusually high BABIP, Baldelli easily could have had a sub .300 OBP last year. All three years he's played he's had very high BABIP, but I just don't see it as sustainable. He's my candidate for bust of the year in 2007. I'd love to upgrade short as well. Izturis's best year wasn't very good, so if he's going to bounce back, I'd rather it be for some other team. I think we as Cubs fans might overvalue Marshall but undervalue Jones. Teams make trades to fill needs, of course, but I'd think most teams would be looking at Jones and would only consider Marshall as a throw-in. Marshall is still young and could very well improve, but he pitched at replacement level last year. I wouldn't bring up Pie yet. In fact, if Pie has more value than Jones, I'd trade him, preferably in a package for an impact player.

I figure Roberts is off the board, but I haven't seen an official announcement yet. I'd be all for Wilkerson (assuming he passes a physical), but I doubt Hendry would sign him. Maybe we could get Ryan Church. He was criminally underused by Washington last year, and we probably could have gotten him for a B-level prospect or two when they demoted him to the minors. We could probably still get him for less than he's worth in return.