cheapseats

Another way to raise Dempster's value: Have him practice OF defense in spring training.

I think there are two kinds of closers: Good ones and guys who have good seasons. Good ones are guys like Rivera, Gagne, Smoltz (also an outstanding starter), Wagner... Guys who have good "seasons" are guys like Dempster, Kolb, Tim Worrell (Giants). The trick is realizing when you have a good pitcher and when you have caught lightning in a bottle. I still think Dempster will be a good closer. Not great, but good. Only if he manages to never face a left-handed batter for the rest of his career. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=3845 Left-handed batters average about 200 points better in OPS against Dempster than right-handed batters. Dempster should be used when the opposing team has 3 RH batters coming up. He'd be perfect against the Cubs, for example. Sometimes that's a mental thing for a pitcher. It may not be in this case but it goes with being too careful and then falling behind in the count. I'm curious on his strike/ball ratio righty/lefty wise. I guess it's possible that not getting out lefties is a mental thing, but it's been a constant problem for half a decade. My guess is that he needs to add a pitch that's effective against lefties, so the cause of his problems is stuff. Either way, though, the Cubs shouldn't be sending him out against left-handed batters. I'd like to think that having Ohman, Eyre, and Cotts means that the powers that be recognize that Dempster should be used as a ROOGY and pulled against lefties, but I doubt it. Possible. I have a lot more faith in Lou when it comes to using the pen correctly than I ever did Dusty. My hope is that Lou is open to new ideas. He even threatened to start games with his relievers in Tampa Bay. He didn't follow through with it, but at least he seems willing to approach problems from unusual angles.

As others have suggested, it does appear that Kolb changed his pitching philosophy in 2005 (his K/9 almost doubled), so that's probably partly to blame for his struggles in Atlanta. And his BABIP was just .250 in 2004. Milwaukee was one of the better defensive teams in baseball in 2004, and the Braves were a poor defensive team in 2005. I'd say Kolb was effective in 2004 because he didn't walk guys, he had a good defense playing behind him, and he was lucky.

I think there are two kinds of closers: Good ones and guys who have good seasons. Good ones are guys like Rivera, Gagne, Smoltz (also an outstanding starter), Wagner... Guys who have good "seasons" are guys like Dempster, Kolb, Tim Worrell (Giants). The trick is realizing when you have a good pitcher and when you have caught lightning in a bottle. I still think Dempster will be a good closer. Not great, but good. Only if he manages to never face a left-handed batter for the rest of his career. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=3845 Left-handed batters average about 200 points better in OPS against Dempster than right-handed batters. Dempster should be used when the opposing team has 3 RH batters coming up. He'd be perfect against the Cubs, for example. Sometimes that's a mental thing for a pitcher. It may not be in this case but it goes with being too careful and then falling behind in the count. I'm curious on his strike/ball ratio righty/lefty wise. I guess it's possible that not getting out lefties is a mental thing, but it's been a constant problem for half a decade. My guess is that he needs to add a pitch that's effective against lefties, so the cause of his problems is stuff. Either way, though, the Cubs shouldn't be sending him out against left-handed batters. I'd like to think that having Ohman, Eyre, and Cotts means that the powers that be recognize that Dempster should be used as a ROOGY and pulled against lefties, but I doubt it.

I think there are two kinds of closers: Good ones and guys who have good seasons. Good ones are guys like Rivera, Gagne, Smoltz (also an outstanding starter), Wagner... Guys who have good "seasons" are guys like Dempster, Kolb, Tim Worrell (Giants). The trick is realizing when you have a good pitcher and when you have caught lightning in a bottle. I still think Dempster will be a good closer. Not great, but good. Only if he manages to never face a left-handed batter for the rest of his career. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=3845 Left-handed batters average about 200 points better in OPS against Dempster than right-handed batters. Dempster should be used when the opposing team has 3 RH batters coming up. He'd be perfect against the Cubs, for example.

Just open one database and then the other. It was a little confusing at first.

It is very cool. I had been using an older version, so I can't wait to download this one.

PECOTA doesn't project Hardy to ever be a particularly good offensive SS. But PECOTA does predict Hardy to be worth about one or one-and-a-half wins more than Cesar Izturis for each of the next five years.

Source? Source.

The Fielding Bible had Hall at +4 in 2005 (the only year I see data for him). Also at +4 in 2005: Cesar Izturis, Omar Vizquel. Davenport Translations have him as an above average SS in 2003-2005, but below average in 2006. Overall, DT ranks him as a very slightly above average SS. Chris Dial's metric had Hall at just one run under average at SS last year, ahead of guys like Royce Clayton and Jimmy Rollins. If I were a Brewer's fan, I'd like to see Hall in CF and Hardy at SS, but if Hardy goes down or proves he can't hit, it would be logical to move Hall back to short. He may not be a gold glover, but he's certainly no butcher.

PECOTA: Johnny Estrada: .274 .316 .407 Damian Miller: .252 .322 .392 Estrada's predicted EQA is just one point higher than Miller's. Doug Davis projects to be worth 1.5 wins more than Estrada. Davis should have brought back something better than Johnny Estrada.

I've played fantasy football and basketball, but I've never been in a baseball league before. I'd love to be in a league this year with other newbie NSBBers.

Hopefully Floyd splits some time with Jacque as well as Murton. As recently as last offseason, Floyd was considered one of the best left-handed hitters versus lefty pitchers, behind Barry Bonds. Floyd hits Tom Glavine really well, for example.

Henry Blanco.

1. Not "eveyone" here believes that Dusty had anything to do with Wood and Prior's injury histories. 2. Of course it can't be "scientifically proven," but then again, hardcore empiricists like Hume and Bertrand Russell dismiss causation altogether. While it can't be proven that Dusty damaged the careers of his young pitchers, it is quite likely. 3. No one said they would have "injury free" careers. However, Dusty's overwork made injury more likely. "But everybody else is doing it" is not an argument that holds much weight. Many who study such things believe that pitches per appearance is much more important than total number of innings. Rany Jazayerli, for example, is in favor of starting pitchers pitching more innings over more starts but throwing fewer pitches per game. In short, it's not so much the innings that matter, it's the number of pitches per appearance. True. I was at the ballpark when he took a line drive off his elbow (and watched Aramis make a great play to catch the ball for an out). But you're not arguing that all of Prior's problems have been caused by freak injuries, are you? Again, if you're going to be a hardcore empiricist, then no one's going to be able to convince you that the there's a cause and effect relationship between anything. Feel free to be skeptical about pitch counts or pitcher abuse points; lots of smart people, including Bill James, for example, see them as almost useless. But it's pretty universally acknowledged that throwing too many pitches is dangerous and can lead to both short term and long term injuries. Leo Mazzone doesn't believe in pulling a pitcher based soley on pitch counts, for example, but he does believe in taking a pitcher out when he loses his mechanics. I and many others here have seen Dusty leave Prior (and more recently) Zambrano in the late innings of games even when they began departing from their normal throwing motions to get the ball over the plate.

Last year Reds opening day tickets went on sale before the rest of the tickets, IIRC. It'll be a Saturday, probably in March.

Jim Edmonds is a uniter, not a divider.

Apples to oranges. General managers are far more important to a team's win/loss record than managers. Teams with good players can win despite a stupid manager, and teams with bad players can lose with a great manager. Finishing last in the NL is an indictment of the GM.

bowden fleeced both the rangers (for soriano...was he the gm then?) and the reds (for lopez and kearns). his team was operating with a significantly lower payroll than the cubs (and playing in a tougher division), and the nats won more games than the cubs. i'd probably rather have hendry than bowden, but it's not unthinkable that someone would rank him ahead of hendry. i don't know why hendry gets any kind of credit from anyone. since he's taken over the losses have increased each year (despite an increasing payroll) and the farm system has gone in the toilet. so he traded for ramirez and lee...what's that gotten him? Two words: Christian Guzman. Anyone GM who gives that player a four-year contract ranks towards the bottom. All things being equal, at least Hendry only gave Neifi a two-year contract. Cesar Izturis.

He'd rank higher, because it would mean he didn't sign Dusty Baker to manage the team in 2003.

Yuck. I liked the stories, though. I know a Cubs fan who runs a company's IT department, so he has a lot of computers at his disposal. Last year he got throught the VWR so quickly that he got good seats for all three Sox games, opening day, and every Cardinals gave he wanted.

Cotts.

I got excited for a moment when I thought you meant he was nailed by a sniper. But I'll take the interception, anyway.

Yuck.

I've made it through the VWR for opening day tickets in each of the last three years. The White Sox series will sell out first.