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kroth1342

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Everything posted by kroth1342

  1. kroth1342
    I wish the 100th World Series anniversary was a couple years ago - maybe then we would have spent a ton of money on quality superstars, like Vlad or Beltran.
  2. kroth1342
    While looking at Giles' stats from the past 2 years in hopes of finding reasons for his decline last year, I noticed some things: G/AB/H/2B/3B/HR/R/RBI/SB/CS/SO/BB/BA/OBA/SLG 2005: 158/545/164/38/8/15/92/83/13/5/64/119/.301/.423/.483 2006: 158/604/159/37/1/14/87/83/9/4/60/104/.263/.374/.397 Similar numbers of G, H, 2B, HR, R, RBI, SO, BB - very consistent. But 60 additional AB and 7 less 3B result in a .04 drop in BA, which cascaded into the declines in OBA and SLG. It seems to me that his decline wasn't that bad, and some bad luck could be involved. I don't have his BABIP stats for the two years, but Brian Giles seems like a serviceable solution for our OF problems - can he play CF?
  3. kroth1342
    Unfortunately, this year's FA market is going to redefine "value" and salaries players "deserve." I personally believe it will seem most similar to the 2000(?) offseason, that of the Arod, Manny, Hampton, and Neagle contracts in that teams have lots of cash to make horrible decisions. That being said, wise decisions will be rewarded, such as choosing which pitcher to give $9-10m per year to.
  4. kroth1342
    Uppin this platinum thread :mrgreen:
  5. kroth1342
    Same here, I don't want either of them. Sheff is just one of those players I do not like. I like players that help the Cubs win - I remember that whole "going with good guys" after 2004 didn't pan out so well... If Kim-Jong Il had a nasty slider I'd want him in the bullpen.
  6. kroth1342
    Let me remind you in the past 3 years Alou has played in 155, 123, and 98 games respectively. He will also be 41 this year. I understand the importance of OPS to an offense but I also remember Alou's horrible OF defense, throws, and baserunning miscues during his last couple years with the Cubs. That being said, I'd rather have the moderately younger (38 this year) Gary Sheffield who up until last year, played in 155 or 154 games the three seasons prior. He also provides great OPS. People need to get off the Alou bandwagon - stop smoking that stuff.
  7. kroth1342
    Some 3-yr trends for Jason Marquis: Age: 25 - 26 - 27 ERA: 3.71 - 4.13 - 6.02 HR: 26 - 29 - 35 K: 138 - 100 - 96 STUFF: 8 - (-2) - (-5) NO THANKS
  8. kroth1342
    He's gone, bye bye Jim.
  9. kroth1342
    Paul Depodesta is certainly not the answer to any of our problems DePodesta was unfairly made the scapegoat for the Dodger's struggles by baseball Neanderthals like Bill Plaschke - he's a smart, competent GM.
  10. kroth1342
    Per ESPN Insider: Where will Sheff go? Nov 6 - Now that the Yankees have picked up Sheffield's $13 million option, speculation is rampant about where he might end up next. Newsday reported that Sheffield's agent, Rufus Williams recently gave the Yankees a list of teams that Sheffield preferred if he were to be traded. Williams declined to list the teams, but the Chicago Tribune reported Sunday that the Cubs and White Sox are on Sheffield's list, and that the Tigers and Padres are likely to be included as well. Certainly a combination of Sheffield and whatever platoon (read: injury replacement for 15 games), seems like a better combination than throwing money at Carlos Lee.
  11. kroth1342
    Sure he does, he has better stuff. Same reason that Marmol has better stuff than Hill, yet their K ratios are on opposite sides of the spectrum. Stuff isn't all about Ks, Brandon Webb has better stuff than each of them, yet his K ratio translates to about 6.7. Both pitchers have gone through odd increases and decreases of velo during their career. I like Padilla more than Lilly, but at that same token, GMs will value Lilly more b/c he is a lefty and pitched in that "difficult" AL east and whatever value they put on facing the Yankees and Red Sox 4-8 times a year with Toronto. I'm more than willing to bet that Padilla will get less than Lilly. I actually think that those Yankees/Red Sox starts could have a significant effect on Lilly's overall numbers, while I haven't looked at his numbers on a start by start basis - in addition to the other top offensive clubs in the AL, including the White Sox over the past two years.
  12. kroth1342
    2006 salaries - Padilla: $4.41 m Lilly: $4.02 m Career translated ERAs - Padilla: 3.98 Lilly: 3.96 Career STUFF rating - Padilla: 9 Lilly: 13 While their ERA output is similar, Lilly puts up better "stuff" at similar or lower cost. Granted he is 2 years older than Padilla, Lilly has made 30 or more starts in 3 out of the last 4 years, while Padilla has done it only in 2 out of the last 4 (03 and 06). While I see your views, I'm still higher on Lilly.
  13. kroth1342
    Why is this?
  14. kroth1342
    http://www.users.muohio.edu/rothkr/fdup.jpg Great idea! People like Mulder are just what we need, considering we haven't been burned by injured pitchers in the past. If we're going for upside, should we resign Wood to be in the rotation too? Slot him in with Miller and Prior? http://encyclopedia.quickseek.com/images/thumb/180px-Curious_george_ether.jpg
  15. kroth1342
    I think there is both. Generally is something is a risk, there is upsidde if it pans out. He is still around 30 years old so he can turn it around. He has shown in the past that he can be a dominant pitcher, and maybe when his injury heals up he will revert to his old form. I have multiple objections to this idea of signing Mark Mulder: How is Mulder, who will be 30 next year, that much younger than the "older" Ted Lilly, who will be 31 next year? So you want to spend significant dollars on a "name" pitcher who is, as you put it waiting for his injury to heal? Wow, haven't we learned our lesson about injured pitchers? Lilly will be making the transition from the AL East to NL Central, admittedly an easier place to pitch. Lilly would probably cost less. http://community.allhiphop.com/images/smilies/chimp.gif
  16. kroth1342
    Looks like the Cubs and I might be on the same page, don't know if that's good or bad: http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/columnists/cs-061104rogers,1,630308.column?coll=cs-home-headlines The Blue Jays are making a last-ditch effort to sign left-hander Ted Lilly, who figures to be pursued by the Cubs and several other teams if he isn't sign during the exclusive negotiating window that ends next Saturday
  17. kroth1342
    Does anyone know when the winning bidder will be announced?
  18. kroth1342
    OK, but the Cubs are going to stay bad that way. Just because the Cubs sign "big name FA" doesn't mean they're the RIGHT free agents. Something to keep in mind with Alou's rough start is the transition players make coming to Wrigley with all the home games - but all in all, I liked the Moises years (not the throwing or baserunning, but those are small complaints).
  19. kroth1342
    The odds of Suppan being a value-buy this offseason is practically zero since he's channeling the ghost of Bob Gibson's career. He might end up banking 8-10 million due to his "playoff experience" and "clutchness"... and that's for a league average, innings-eater sort of pitcher. Not a good use of money. The market is what it is for a #3 starter. An average pitcher in the current market that stays relatively healthy makes 7-8 million a year, usually on a 3-year contract. Suppan might get a bit more due to the 'playoff experience'. I'm not sure if it is a poor use of money since you're not going to find much cheaper production from a veteran anyway. Teams are probably better off running two high-priced top-end starters, one average veteran, and two cheap kids from the farm. Suppan and Lilly fit the role of that #3 and you'd be hard-pressed to find a guy cheaper than 7 million at that role. Have we not learned our lesson yet about overpaying for guys that don't make a difference? The team would be much better off picking up Matsuzaka and Schmidt and running them out there with Z, Hill, and Prior (or whoever is healthy). Yeah, we'd have to tear the overpriced, mediocre bullpen apart to get salary relief... but we'd have a good pitching staff. There's nothing wrong with a league-average innings guy. They do have value. But that value is nowhere near what they will be making. Personally, I'd just rather spend the extra money on guys who will make a difference than doll out the cash for league average guys. Because, in general, league average guys will lead to a league average team... and not a great one. I would love to get Matsuzaka and Schmidt but then I remember that teams would love to get just ONE of those guys and the Cubs' record at wooing top of the line free agents has been abysmal in the past. I proposed Ted Lilly as a realistic gamble who could pay off big for much less cost.
  20. kroth1342
    That's odd because Beltre is absolutely, f********* horrible. Odd, though.
  21. kroth1342
    Isn't a pitcher's prime a little later than a hitter's? Yep. And Lily has damn good stuff too. Good fastball, great curve (it's similar to Zito's), good slider that used to be his out pitch. Left handed, in the prime of a pitchers career (which is usually later than a hitters), and cheaper than the highly overrated Zito. Still, nah. We have a few young guys I'd like to see get time again like Guzman and Marshall. Personally, I'd rather see Guzman have a successful season at Triple-A, or even a successful half-season before he comes up to the majors. He didn't show me anything last year that makes me think he can be a productive major league starter now.
  22. kroth1342
    Sorry, but I'm just not that enthused about a pitcher one year OLDER than Lilly, who posted similar ERAs in an INFERIOR league while striking out less batters.
  23. kroth1342
    co-sign
  24. kroth1342
    According to BP's STUFF stat: Arroyo 2003, 2004, 2005: 16, 23, 4, with a weighted mean forecast of 10 for 2006 (note I don't have the actualy value for this past season) Lilly 2003, 2004, 2005: 15, 16, -5 with a weighted mean forecast of 7 for 2006 While there is an age difference, I don't know if that is a huge factor in pitcher performance this days. With the high cost of veteran pitching via the FA market or trade, Lilly appears to be a gamble worth taking to fill out the rotation if we can acquire a top-of-the-rotation starter.
  25. kroth1342
    In thinking of ways to improve the Cubs' pitching in 07, I was reminded of the disparity between the AL and NL, and the success of pitchers making the AL --> NL transition: specifically Bronson Arroyo. In 2006 Arroyo posted the following line: 3.29 ERA 240.7 IP 88 ER 31 HR 64 BB 184 K GABP 2005 park factor: 1002 In his two previous full seasons with Boston as a starter: 2004: 4.03 ERA 178.7 IP 80 ER 17 HR 47 BB 142 K 2005: 4.51 ERA 205.3 IP 103 ER 22 HR 54 BB 100 K Fenway 2004 and 2005 park factor: 1033 To me, a candidate to experience a similar change in production going from the AL --> NL is Ted Lilly. I'm not sure if he is still under arbitration or will be a FA. Here are the numbers from Lilly's last two full seasons with TOR: 2004: 4.06 ERA 197.3 IP 89 ER 26 HR 89 BB 168 K 2006: 4.31 ERA 181.7 IP 87 ER 28 HR 81 BB 160 K Toronto park factor 2004 and 2005: 1037, 1034 When looking at Lilly's numbers, remember he is pitching in the AL East, having to make several starts each year against BOS and NYY, two of the top 5 offensive clubs in MLB - in addition to playing in a hitter's park. In my opinion, moving Lilly to the weaker lineups of the NL and to a fairly neutral park (Wrigley), could provide the same transformation that we saw with Arroyo.
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