kroth1342

PM'd you.

It works for everyone, you can't just take a guys road splits and count them as his true value. what a novel concept! Old news to some of us... viewtopic.php?f=6&t=48174&p=1749774#p1749774

Look at his home/away splits: http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=greenkh01&year=00#locat-hmvis Get him away from those cavernous ballparks in the NL west and he tends to rake. You mean like those cavernous places where offense goes to die like Arizona and Coors? The splits would be more informative if the OPS+ number was adjusted for the league, not the team also.

Ditto. I'm hoping that if a namechange does happen enough people do this that it makes some kind of impact. Hopefully. SMH at you thinking you or a group of people could ever make an impact. Any company that can afford approximately $20 mm for Wrigley naming rights can certainly do without the business of you or 10,000 like minded people (if you could ever quantify the impact like that) - unless you and everyone else is spending thousands and thousands of a year on their products. Accept the naming rights will be sold, hope they can keep Wrigley Field in the name somehow, and hope the money is used to put a better product on the field.

Cool - so you must be a marketing major I assume?

If I get through again, I let ya know. I don't think people are cursing their computers because they can't get tickets for the Pirates - you've got some time.

Did anyone else hear this?

Even if he didn't just resign I'd ask if you've been smoking crack... Fluke career year at age 35, dear god no.

or if he lets Fontenot punch him in the face Amen. I don't want him anywhere near my team. Not even for free. So you don't want to make an upgrade at SS? Do you not want to win and then just spend all day on the internet talking about how your team has so much character?

If only the two had recently made a trade... Danks 6-7 - 4.83 ERA - 108 IP McCarthy 4-7 - 5.52 ERA - 76.2 IP Danks is also younger, cheaper, left handed and under White Sox control for more years. Plus, KW got Nick Masset and Jacob Rasner as well. I think Williams showed Daniels how to stockpile young talent right in his face. that is an absolute ethering, by a guy with 35 posts since 05 no less; talk about making your posts count Backtobanks <-- should never post again

I wouldn't say its all over, I thought we might struggle in some homer friendly parks and would be around even for that road trip. If I was being pessimistic, I could say we lose 5 or 6 of those games because Hill, Marshall, and Lilly give up a ton of homers. I figured we'd need some big performances at home to keep us in the hunt, hence the sweeps of MIL and STL.

With the second half of the season getting underway on Friday, what are our prospects to overtake Milwaukee and/or make noise in the WC? Here is an optimistic look at the remaining 75 games, a sort of best case scenario. All analysis should build off of this. July 13 - July 22; 3 vs. HOU, 4 vs. SF, 3 vs. SF: we've been playing well on at home lately, and need to keep it up. Series wins - HOU, ARI. Series ties - SF. 6-4 -- 50-47 Actual: HOU 3-0; SF 3-1 July 24 - July 29; 3 @ STL, 3 @ CIN: the Cards get up for the rivalry, and a lot of runs are scored at GABP. Road trip 3-3 -- 53-50 July 30 - August 5; 4 vs. PHI, 3 vs. NYM: split against a Phillies team that leads the NL in runs, then winning the series against a Mets squad with very similar RS/RA to us. Series wins - NYM. Series ties - PHI. 4-3 -- 57-53. August 6 - August 12; 3 @ HOU, 4 @ COL: I can see our pitchers getting into trouble along this trip if they leave too many over the plate. Road trip 3-4 -- 60-57. August 14 - August 20; 3 vs. CIN, 4 vs. STL (or is it 5? make-up game here?): after our first off day in three weeks, this successful homestand includes winning the series against CIN and taking 4 straight from the Cards. Homestand 6-1 -- 66-58. August 21 - August 26; 3 @ SF, 3 @ ARI: a tough trip out west ends up .500. Road trip 3-3 -- 69-61. August 28 - September 6; 3 vs. MIL, 3 vs. HOU, 4 vs. LAD: the make or break homestand of the year. A sweep of the Brewers (I said this was optimistic) followed by a series win against the Astros and a tough split against the Dodgers gives us momentum in the final month. Series wins - MIL, HOU. Series tie - LAD. 7-3 -- 76-64. September 7 - September 16; 3 @ PIT, 3 @ HOU, 3 @ STL: a 10 day stretch against division rivals comes out 5-4, somewhat disappointing. Road trip 5-4 -- 81-68. September 17 - September 23; 3 vs. CIN, 3 vs. PIT: against a Reds team missing Griffey or Dunn (or both) and a Pirates team playing out the stretch, we win both series. Series win - CIN, PIT. 4-2 -- 85-70. September 25 - September 30; 3 @ FLA, 3 @ CIN: to atone for the losses at the end of the 2004 season, we have to sweep one series and win the other. Road trip 5-1 -- 90-71. So obviously the cancelled Cardinals game needs to be in there, but the point is, we need to go 46-28 to be in the playoff mix. The questions that arise from there: 1) can we play .621 ball from here on out to get to that point? 2) if yes, will that even be enough wins to make the playoffs? 3) if not, how many wins do we think it will take to win the division?[/b]

Not that Hendry would ever read this but: 1st in BA 6th in OBP 5th in SLG 6th in R What correlates best with run-scoring Jim?

source?

I don't understand why anyone would want any part of Conley when we've got Hinrich and Gordon in the backcourt. Unless you plan on trading Gordon, then we lose a bunch of scoring anyway.

I think the more important statistic is that we're 9th in HR. I don't expect us to lead the NL in HR, but with Lee-Ramirez-Soriano-Barrett plus the amalgam of OF, I'd expect a top-5 club in HR and with that, some more runs scored. Ramirez and Barret have done their part, but more HR from Soriano (in the 2 spot?) and Lee (although he's been outstanding), will help the cause.

It's not a great idea to have a pitcher with a significant injury history throwing 109+ pitches for 6 consecutive starts. Why not 108+ or 110+? Actually Will Carrol and other people who speak on pitch counts think that the 105-115 area is the best amount to maximize the contribution of a starting pitcher - 120 is the bad mark.

According to Cubs.com, Zambrano will be showing off some mechanical adjustments he made in between starts. http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070515&content_id=1965631&vkey=news_chc&fext=.jsp&c_id=chc According to Piniella:

I think a better explanation is that he's struggling to find consistency with his sparse PA, and probably pressing too much when he does get some playing time.

I think the problem right there is assuming each run distribution is equally likely. If G = 162, X = 850, and Y = 750, there is a near zero chance that the set begins (0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, etc...) I would agree - I think the starting point would be a distribution of all run outcomes. I'd think this distribution wouldn't be a normal curve, but rather right skewed. Not sure how to proceed from there.

How about a condensed "RS/RA Expected vs Actual Records" thread so we don't see a new one every couple of days?

We all hope it does - for evidence to the contrary, see: Cleveland Indians, 2006.

Update today: http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6161 Admit I don't know too much about Vitters before this. Anyone with a closer connection?

I'm not so sure - if he hasn't been activated to the major league club (not sure if I'm using the correct term), then it may not be such a bad idea to give him one more AAA start. He hasn't exactly been a world-beater down there.

Looks like I might have to follow last year's Cory Lidle Halloween costume with a Josh Hancock costume. Better get to Ebay...