bukie

Michigan State 67, Ohio State 60 Virginia Tech 63, Miami 49 Is Virginia Tech a viable at-large?

Details for those who follow on Gamecast, plz. All I know is that he took the shot with plenty of time left in the game, and left South Carolina with 14 seconds to come back on the other end.

South Carolina leads Tennessee 87-86 with 17 seconds to play.

I'd say it's similar to the RPI hit of playing Northwestern twice in the Big Ten. Looking around, that's the only other team that's comparable in major conferences (Big 12 and ACC have very strong "weak" teams, Big East has just too darn many teams with too much variance to call any one team the "weak" team, and the SEC is just...chock full of bad teams, but no one team has been especially "weak").

The primary issue with Pomeroy's stats is that is wildly overvalues teams that are inconsistent, like Marquette, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Arizona State. The true rating of those teams is somewhere in the middle, because an extremely good showing in a single game will shoot any team up the charts (heck, look at Illinois). It's a very valuable tool, and at least as valuable as the RPI if not more, though. It is a purely predictive rating, though, and says very little about how good a team's season has "been". In essence, Pomeroy's ratings are a good measure of who the "best" teams are, and the RPI is more of a measure of how much a team has "earned" a tournament spot.

If it were up to me, I'd just take the locks and leave it at that, maybe add Kent State to the group if they lose in the conference tourney, and just give byes out for the rest of the bids, as nobody's earning anything. :) EDIT: Also, Texas held on to beat OSU, and South Carolina doing their best to make the SEC tournament interesting, leading Tennessee 57-55 midway through the second half.

Early game scores: UNC 83, Florida St. 70 Wisconsin 51, Michigan 34 Texas leads Oklahoma State 54-43 midway through the second half Tennessee leads South Carolina 41-40 at the half

Yeah, the Temple-Charlotte winner could make things interesting, especially if St. Joe's upsets Xavier. They should at least enter the discussion with a win today. I'm still of the opinion that Illinois State would have a better at-large shot, though, since they were the clear second-best team, and had a better non-con than Temple.

Today's committee task reminder: 1) Send me a list of your top 16, ranked in order. 2) Send me a list of the automatic one-bid conference teams (16), ranked in order. In my Thursday post (3rd one down on the first page of the thread), I listed either the team that already won the auto bid with the conference in parentheses, or the conference that will get just an auto bid with the highest remaining seeded team listed. Basically, rank those teams in order. For open discussion, these are what we have remaining as bubble teams: Arizona Arizona State Arkansas Baylor California Creighton Dayton Florida Florida State Houston Illinois State Kentucky Kent State Maryland Massachusetts Miami-Florida Minnesota Mississippi Nebraska New Mexico Ohio State Oregon Rhode Island Southern Illinois St. Joseph's Syracuse Texas A&M Texas Tech UAB UNLV Villanova Virginia Commonwealth Wake Forest There are between 6 and 14 bids available for the above teams, since the Pac-10 and Big East will already be won by a team on the at-large board, and the MAC needs a representative whether or not it's Kent State. There are 32 teams listed above. Which should be at the top of the list? Which should be taken off the board, as they have no realistic shot at a bid? I'll start the discussion: I think Cal, Creighton, Houston, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Rhode Island, Southern Illinois, Syracuse, Texas Tech, and Wake Forest have no shot at a bid, and should be removed from at-large discussion. I also think Arizona, Arkansas, Kent State, Kentucky, Miami-FL, Ohio State, St. Joe's, Texas A&M, UNLV and Villanova should be at the top of the discussion list.

Results of the Thursday selections posted where I reserved a spot on the first page. 30 teams in, 4 others close, 7 others mentioned at least once. 16 auto bids not in any at-large consideration, and thus relegated to the bottom of the bracket.

And...Ole Miss loses to Georgia 97-95 in OT.

Marquette beats Notre Dame 89-79. Three lower seeds in the semis, and Georgetown.

Maryland falls to BC 71-68. Tough ACC or average Maryland team? Depends whether you work for ESPN or not... Texas A&M beats Iowa State 60-47, a comparatively impressive win after all the bad losses today by bubble teams.

More exciting games that affect the at-large pool: Massachusetts blows a 17-point halftime lead and loses to Charlotte 69-65. UNLV completely lucks out when a TCU player fouls a UNLV jumpshooter as time expires, who made the shot and the FT as UNLV wins 89-88. Washington State holds on to beat Oregon 75-70.

Still trying to decide among 3 teams for my last of the 34 at-larges, and 2 of them are playing now...one of them trailing. Of course, right now, the one trailing is the one on the list.

I still thought they were safe, but obviously I was wrong. Fortunately the Pac-10 officiating crew made sure that didn't happen this year... ;) Today, though, they played like a 1 seed. And so did Memphis. UNC, Kansas and Tennessee join the fray tomorrow.

Meh, it wasn't even that close (UCLA was up 78-46 when the end of the bench and the walk-ons came in). UCLA vs USC tomorrow. I think (hope) UCLA has clinched a 1 seed no matter what tomorrow. Oregon playing their way out of any chance at the tourney after ASU lost earlier today. Hey, I was sure UCLA was a 1 seed last year and Florida was a 2, and the committee went and put Florida as the #1 overall seed (and then Florida went and won it all and validated their choice anyway :P ). If I had to choose 4 #1's right now, it'd actually be difficult between UNC, UCLA, Kansas, Memphis and Tennessee. By RPI the order is Tennessee, UNC, Memphis, UCLA, Kansas. By efficiency statistics, the order is Kansas, UCLA, Memphis, UNC, Tennessee (yes, seriously). Winning the conference tournament is especially huge for all 5 teams to create some kind of separation. Especially for Memphis.

Reminder, anyone that wants to participate in the mock selection committee, send me their 34 at-large teams by midnight CST. I have 4 so far, but the more the merrier.

Another round of games completed: Temple 84, La Salle 75 Pitt 75, Louisville 69, OT Memphis 75, Tulane 56 Kent State 77, Toledo 57 Alabama 80, Florida 69

Thus again proving that the average lifespan of an NFL running back is 4 years. That increases the likelihood they address RB in the first round of the draft. Mendenhall at 15, perhaps.

Dayton lost early today to Xavier, 74-65, just FYI. :)

It's really too bad for Penn State, as a win today would've made them NIT eligible, but as-is it only looks like Minnesota (and possibly Ohio State) is going to the NIT. Are there restrictions on that third tournament, the College Basketball Invitational?

UCLA routs Cal, 88-66.

Totally rooting for an Illinois/Northwestern semifinal from here on out.

Vanderbilt 93, Auburn 82 UTEP 80, Houston 77 CUSA cannibalizes another team with remote at-large chances.