mg420

My problem with incentives for Rusch is the same problem I had with incentives for Neifi. Basically every incentive you give them is tied to playing time, ie. the more they play, they more they're paid. The problem is, the more they play, the worse your team is. Rusch throwing up a 4.50 ERA for 140 IP isn't worth 4-5m. It's not worth a dime. If you can squeeze 80 IP and get a 3.50 ERA, maybe that's worth $2m. But what are the odds that Rusch can be good in 2006? Every "maybe he's figured it out" theory based on 2004 was blown out of the wather with his 2005. He's poised to go back over the 5.00 ERA mark again anytime soon. And if Dusty has shown anything, it's a willingness to keep going with a subpar veteran, building up his playing time no matter how well he's played. In fact, I could see Dusty purposefully giving Rusch more innings, and then explaining it by saying, "He earned that contract, I'm not going to keep him from his money." i think if one objectively looks at rusch's game by game stats your suggestion does not hold water. aside from a streach of 4 games when he was made a starter again after pitching in the pen for 2.5 months, rusch was very effective starting. i dont see why he cant win 12-15 games with an era around 3.50 in 2006 if he starts 32 games. ill take that from a #5 any day. another case of baker not using a player to his best potential imo (see hawkins, dempster, dubois, hollandsworth & murton to name the others misused in 2005). i hope rusch is signed to start for the cubs for the next 2 years and from all indications he will.

I'm in favor of taking a (another) chance on Nomar. But the argument for Furcal is that Nomar is injury prone, and Cedeno could be a AAAA player. So overpriced production is better than Neifi's anti-production. so could murton but there is nothing to indicate that either of them are. if cedeno can play great d and hit .280 with 15 hr's and a good obp (he also has very good speed and might steal a few bases), i would be very satisfied with him playing ss.

giles had more power earlier in his career but after hitting 38 hr in 2002 he has hit 20/492 ab in 03, 23/609 ab in 04 & 15/545 ab in 05. floyd on the other hand has these totals 28/520 ab 02, 18/365 ab 03, 18/396 ab 04 & 34/550 ab 05. while their home parks are also a factor, #'s alone seem to indicate that giles is in decline power wise while floyd is hitting with more power.

with all this talk about signing giles, maybe cliff floyd would be an even better option. he has more power than giles and is younger and seems to be over his injuries. i dont know how they compare defensively or arm wise and i believe only has 2 more years on his contract (06 & 07?). other than trading for abreu (who would cost ALOT talent wise), i think floyd might be the next best option if he is available.

if the cubs cant trade for abreu or sign giles, i look for them to trade for floyd from the mets to play right. they can then possibly sign lofton to play center & take the option on walker to play 2nd. eyre is probably going to be on bakers list as the other lefty since he had him when he managed the giants, and i would like to see them go after howry to set up dempster. that would leave the question of weather to sign rusch to be the #5 or give it to williams and a bat or three for the bench (with perhaps theriot & font. in the mix). that said i would pass on dotel & f rod.

ill take walker back for a year or 2 until epat is ready. the same for lofton in cf until pie is ready.

too bad it says "girardi" and not "dusty". if the cubs do win anything next year it will be in spite of and not because of dusty. perhaps this is why joe signed with the fish today.

maybe he already has a deal set up with the cubs. i'd take joe in a second over baker.

Puffy Muskat? I'm curious if Mr. Hendry thinks Pie will be ready for spring 2006? Jonathan Mayo (whoever he is) seems to think so: http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20051012&content_id=1247554&vkey=news_chc&fext=.jsp&c_id=chc

Dempsters career K/9 is 7.40 Hawkins career K/9 is 6.06 Dempster's career G/F is 1.26 Hawkins career G/F is 1.16 Dempster's career BB/9 is 4.72. Hawkins' career BB/9 is 2.72. You don't have to make a comparison to Hawkins to describe Dempster as somebody who walks the tight rope. The guy walks too many people, and that didn't change when he went to the bullpen. I was probably the biggest advocate of Dempster becoming the closer last offseason. I started the Dempster/Isringhausen comparison, and I think it still holds up. But there is nothing wrong with being concerned about his ability to close successfully 4 straight years. I think the Cubs still need to look into acquiring a more dominant bullpen arm, whether that guy is a closer like Wagner or Ryan, or a middle innings guy. i dont see hendry giving dempster 15 mil for 3 years & not have him close. unless he is injured or does a horrible job, he is the closer in 06 and beyond. they will most likely try to snag a set up guy like howry & another lefty arm but i think they are high on ohman, wuretz & novoa for the other spots. personally i hope to see jvb get a real shot next year too.

I don't think anyone is arguing that Dempster didn't have a great year as closer. The question, however, is whether or not his performance is repeatable. that ? is always a risky one. if the cubs didnt jump on getting him signed he most likely would have signed elsewhere leaving them without a closer. he obviously has the talent to do so again but it's a gamble as to weather or not he will. with his stuff & closer mentality, unless he gets injured i'm not worried about him not getting the job done.

I think the Cubs would have to offer much more than just that package. Sub in Jerome Williams for Rich Hill due to the park the Phillies play in, and then toss in Scott Moore & Felix Pie and you'd have a deal they might bite on. how about williams, hill, pinto & harvey. that gets them 2 of our top lefties, a potentially very good righty starter & a #1 draft power hitting right fielder. from what i've heard hendry is not going to trade murton, ep or pie and rightly so imo. the cubs can then resign rusch to be the #5 starter in place of williams or hill. maybe the nationals would take cp, mitre & welly for wilkerson.

either that or darrin baker. who knows with dusty in charge?

http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a115/mikeak21/nsbb2.jpg thanks! great work. would love 2 see them as the cf & rf in 06 & beyond to go along with murton in lf.

it will always be comiskey to me. the cell sounds like a bad j-lo movie 2 me.

brad wilkerson & abreu.

no more nomar. give the ss job to cedeno & lf to murton from day 1. if hendry allows baker to shelve the kids next year & play washed up vets, there is not much that will help this team anyway & it will be 2005 all over again.

his K/9 and BB/9 don't show nastiness. Not compared to the top closers. if 33/35 with a 1.85 era is not nasty i dont know what is. i would take dempster closing with his numbers over farnsworth's great k/9 & bb/9 any day. who cares how many he k's or walks as long as he gets the job done. Because the hits and walks are much better indicators of what he will do in the future than Save percentage or ERA(especially for relievers). i disagree. if this were true the farns & hawkins would be elite closers but they are not. the future is a big guess for every player no matter what #'s you consider. i think it's insane to say that dempster didnt have a great season as a closer last year because he walked too many & didnt have enough k's. he is the cubs closer the next 3 years regardless so lets hope he has another season in 06 like he had in 05.

his K/9 and BB/9 don't show nastiness. Not compared to the top closers. if 33/35 with a 1.85 era is not nasty i dont know what is. i would take dempster closing with his numbers over farnsworth's great k/9 & bb/9 any day. who cares how many he k's or walks as long as he gets the job done.

Dempster (like Borowski) is not a lights-out closer and certainly has a tendency to worry me, but what would have happened if the Cubs low-balled Dempster and he signed with another team. Now you have to get in a bidding war over someone like Wagner that will end up costing $8-9 million per year. Is Dempster worth $5 million...... NO, but 99% of the players aren't worth what they're paid. At least it's money being paid to someone who has an important role on the team and not a bench-warmer. This isn't a discussion of whether ballplayers are worth more than firefighters. It is a baseball discussion. Dempster isn't worth $5 million because he's not that good, he is an injury risk, the Cubs could probably replace him for less and then use the extra money for something they need. who could they replace him with for less than 5 mil? with all the $ the cubs will save next year in payroll by losing nomar, burnitz & sosa's contract a few mil is not going to make much of a difference. every pitcher is an injury risk (look at what happened to foulke, gagne & benitez) and to say "he's not that good" is just a personal opinion that the facts simply dont back up. what if the dodgers or twins said the same thing about gange and nathan who had similar history's of being failed starters who were often injured? Well that's it then. Dempster would have to give us a couple of Joe Nathan seasons to make this worth it. I'll gladly be wrong if he does. you still havent given any cheaper & better options that the cubs had prior to signing dempster. who would you have rather seen them sign than dempster?

what about cliff floyd? he is another option as the mets are rumored to be shopping him.

Dempster (like Borowski) is not a lights-out closer and certainly has a tendency to worry me, but what would have happened if the Cubs low-balled Dempster and he signed with another team. Now you have to get in a bidding war over someone like Wagner that will end up costing $8-9 million per year. Is Dempster worth $5 million...... NO, but 99% of the players aren't worth what they're paid. At least it's money being paid to someone who has an important role on the team and not a bench-warmer. This isn't a discussion of whether ballplayers are worth more than firefighters. It is a baseball discussion. Dempster isn't worth $5 million because he's not that good, he is an injury risk, the Cubs could probably replace him for less and then use the extra money for something they need. who could they replace him with for less than 5 mil? with all the $ the cubs will save next year in payroll by losing nomar, burnitz & sosa's contract a few mil is not going to make much of a difference. every pitcher is an injury risk (look at what happened to foulke, gagne & benitez) and to say "he's not that good" is just a personal opinion that the facts simply dont back up. what if the dodgers or twins said the same thing about gange and nathan who had similar history's of being failed starters who were often injured?

how about howry to set up & eyre as the other lefty in the pen. both are ex sox players who had very good years last year. i would pass on flash gordon myself.

what kind of package would it take to get abreu? would hill, pinto & harvey do the trick? if the cubs could snag wilkerson from washington to play cf & get abreu to play rf without giving up murton, that would be an excellent of imo.

funny, from what i've read the phillies wish they didnt sign him to a no trade clause so they could trade abreu.