The "other factors" have never been reasonably substantiated to my satisfaction. The answer may sometimes be no, it doesn't predict the future, but there are players that it more often does, like Casey Blake. To a lesser degree this applies to Soriano. Soriano has been playing too long to reasonably expect this to change. I don't know many hitters who fit this situation, but when there's many years of this kind of situational hitting happening, I think it doesn't make sense to ignore it. Let's look at a year to year breakdown of his numbers with runners on base: 2002: .328/.353/.543/.896 2003: .263/.320/.444/.764 2004: .300/.345/.488/.833 2005: .240/.273/.469/.742 2006: .274/.396/.566/.962 2007: .250/.344/.363/.707 As we can see, his numbers jump around quite a bit from year to year, and his overall numbers don't seem to be especially predictive of performance with runners on base. His numbers with runners on do seem, unsurprisingly, to be somewhat related to how well he batted overall in each particular year. Below average career numbers with runners on do not convince me that he isn't capable of handling a spot in the middle of the order. I think his career numbers may be skewed slightly towards the negative by the fact that in his best years, he typically had his fewest ABs with runners on (in 2006, for example, because he was leading off). The problem with the Soriano-isn't-clutch theory is that it reverses the normal causal relationships of baseball, saying that his best years came because he had fewer ABs with runners on. That doesn't hold for his career year in 2006, though, since his OPS with runners on was better than his OPS for the whole season. The argument would make sense if his runners on base numbers were consistently poor, but they sure don't look consistent to me.