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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Rob
    Swoon
  2. Rob
    I wouldn't read too much into the falling vote total on this one. A lot of people vote and don't check back in on the thread until the next one comes up. I'm sure a few missed the opportunity to re-vote.
  3. Rob
    It sucks that we couldn't get Upton. But since Towers was very clearly focusing on filling their hole at 3B and avoiding bad attitude types, it's no shocker that we had nothing short of Castro that enticed him.
  4. Rob
    28. Ha - Very likely to be a quality 4th OF. 29. McNutt - Stuff and proximity to the bigs. At 30 I keep flip flopping between a bunch of guys. Jensen, Bruno, Scott, Struck, Martin, mostly. I'm voting Jensen right now, but could be swayed by the arguments I'm seeing.
  5. Rob
    I don't have anything to add that hasn't already been said. I like it, but it's a good short-side-of-the-platoon guy -- there's only so much value to be had there. I don't think this necessarily takes us out of the Bourn sweepstakes, either. You find a place for 4 WAR guys on good contracts; they're still trying to shop Soriano and even if they can't, keeping his legs fresh means there's still a good deal of playing time for DeJesus/Schierholtz/Hairston between LF and RF. None of them is the sort of player you just can't afford to bench. It would probably mean Sappelt gets to go back to Iowa though.
  6. Rob
    Hard throwing lefty, and (I believe) a hometown guy. I'm not a huge fan, myself. RHP. I figured it out. I was thinking of Casey Crosby.
  7. Rob
    Hard throwing lefty, and (I believe) a hometown guy. I'm not a huge fan, myself.
  8. Rob
    Same The upside picks at this point all have major warts. Zych is just a reliever, but he's close to major league ready, and his peripherals point at him as a potential late inning guy. Ha looks likely to carve out a career as a pretty good 4th OF. McNutt is kinda the reverse of Zych - crappy peripherals, but better scouting reports. I like McNutt less, but he's in that same general area.
  9. Rob
    As a GM, Rizzo has very obvious strengths and even more obvious weaknesses. I think he's more suited to a rebuilding team than a competing one.
  10. Rob
    Olt's a better prospect than Vitters more because of the glove than because of the bat right now.
  11. Rob
    If Wells had just bit the bullet and had TJS I'd have him ranked ahead of Whitenack. But the odds are pretty high he's going to suffer through a wasted season or try to baby his arm and develop more slowly than he should. Personally, I went with Watkins, Whitenack, and Rondon. I'm starting to think I should have ranked Rondon higher, to be honest.
  12. Rob
    When looking at rate stats, it's probably best to remember that Amaya's are buoyed by a BABIP 73 points higher than Hernandez (.360 to .287). Given that it's WAY too early to make any statements about Amaya's ability to sustain BABIPs like that, the gap probably isn't nearly as large as it first appears.
  13. Rob
    If he's starting the year in Peoria I'm not surprised most people are writing him off as a Cubs prospect.
  14. Rob
    20.) Logan Watkins - Solid walk rate. Declining K rate. Good wheels. He's looking like he could be a pretty excellent utility guy, and has some ceiling beyond that. 21.) Alberto Cabrera - The K/BB ratios in the minors were soooo sexy this year. But that control seems to come and go. Ultimately I have doubts he'll develop the consistency to stick in the rotation, but he could be a shut down reliever. 22.) Robert Whitenack - Purely a nod to his first few starts in 2011 and some decent scouting reports as of late. Also in play for me were Tony Zych, Barrett Loux, and Ben Wells. Zych is behind Cabrera solely because of the 10% chance Cabrera has to start. Loux and Wells are behind Whitenack just because I feel more confident in Whitenack's health since he actually had the necessary surgery, rather than trying to rehab through it. Edit: Yeah, it's definitely starting to get difficult now. As an aside, I just bothered to look up Rondon's stats. They were quite impressive before the injury. Anybody got a scouting report?
  15. Rob
    When in doubt, pick the SS.
  16. Rob
    17.) Torreyes - I love the low K approach. 18.) Hernandez - Gets the nod based on his potential to stick at SS. 19.) Amaya - K's are worrying, but the power is encouraging. I've got Watkins essentially tied with this group. I like his game better than Amaya right now, but the age thing is what leaves him off at this moment. I also heavily considered Cabrera at this point (I have Cabrera ahead of Underwood, for the record.)
  17. Rob
    I tend to wait on the ceiling nod until a player at least shows off the tools. Junior Lake has shown power/speed, etc... Underwood has shown velocity, but no control and not much in the way of secondary stuff IIRC. Make no mistake, I've got my eye on him next season and I think he's as good a bet as anybody in the system to make a nice leap. But the ceiling nod feels way premature.
  18. Rob
    Time for one of these: Mystery SS A: 5.3 BB%, 17.0 K%, 24 SB, 86 SB%, .145 ISO Mystery SS B: 4.2 BB%, 16.7 K%, 10 SB, 71 SB%, .115 ISO Mystery 2B A: 12.9 BB%, 16.5 K%, 28 SB, 80 SB%, .141 ISO Mystery 2B B: 10.9 BB%, 20.5 K%, 15 SB, 75 SB%, .199 ISO Mystery 2B C: 6.8 BB%, 6.1 K%, 13 SB, 76 SB%, .121 ISO The SS's are pretty tough to differentiate. Given the ages and levels, it's reasonable to go either way depending on the scouting reports you trust more. The 2B you have a much better chance of guessing. I just sometimes like to put all the ratios up there without the slash lines so people don't focus on what may be an artificially boosted BABIP.
  19. Rob
    I went with Szczur, but I've been voting for him since around 8. Sure, he struggled at the end of last season. And you have to balance age-relative-to-league with his lack of experience compared to most his age. But he's shown an ability to keep his K rate around 10%. He's shown a good walk rate. He's shown plus defense and speed. And he's supposedly got a touch of BP power he might be able to tap into. The plus-plus makeup also has to count for something. Right now, he looks like a very good 4th OF. If he either brings his K rate down or shows some power he's an average regular. If he does both he's a borderline all-star. Underwood is a nice prospect. But I think he's getting bonus points just because our system is so light on quality pitching prospects.
  20. Rob
    Guys have to be in a system for a year before they can technically be traded as anything other than a PTBNL. The only recent notable guy to be traded that way was Drew Pomeranz, I believe.
  21. Rob
    The only issue I have with giving something like 5/$75m is that it looks like it wont take nearly that much.
  22. Rob
    Bourn's baserunning value has averaged about 9 runs per 650 plate appearances over the last five years. Essentially, it's worth 1 WAR in and of itself. For lack of a better number, we can assign it the standard "market value" of about $5 mil per WAR. His career UZR/150 is about 11 runs -- which is worth about the same. His bat is just about average given the position. All in all, it adds up to a pretty safe bet for a 4 WAR player. It's not crazy at all to suggest he'd be worth even $15 mil per season despite the Cubs current roster.
  23. Rob
    I feel like the "vote 3" system may be resulting in people feeling compelled to put a pitcher in their group of three. I think that's moving the quality arms a few spots higher than they actually deserve.
  24. Rob
    So amidst all the legitimate celebration, the question has to be asked: Why didn't we make any of these signings last offseason? I'm starting to think they really were trying to tank year 1 for draft picks. Either that, or the Dominican facility came from payroll.
  25. Rob
    Dear lord. I may not count, but can I at least "not count" for the things I actually say and not the exact opposite? In my mind, you exist solely as a straw man for all the things I'm against. ETA: I should probably mention both of those are jokes.
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