Rob

Josh Vitters last year in the PCL: 6.6 BB%, 17.0 K%, .210 ISO. The walk rate was a best for him, but he kept it up even during his struggles in the majors. It seems like a focus he had last year. His strikeout rate in the minors has actually fluctuated between about 18% and 11% in the minors (the 11% came in 2011 at AA.) The strikeout rate was over 30% during his cup of coffee. Just for the sake of argument let's call the walk rate real improvement and chalk the strikeout rate in MLB up to small sample size and nerves. Let's pretend he can get that back down close to his higher minor league figure. But given the nature of the PCL, you should probably write off some of that power. Here's a few guys last season who were posting comparable ratios. There weren't any perfect comps -- at least not in people who played full seasons. But this is the best I could get. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=3433,1908,3086,1737,3473,9205 I don't think it's unreasonable to project Vitters might be able to put up something like Morneau did last year. Yeah, he'd be a below average starter at that, but it's not bad. And given his hit tool and supposed propensity for line drives, I don't think I'd be all that shocked to see him score a couple .330 BABIP seasons in his prime. I don't want all this to sound like I'm in love with Vitters as a prospect. I'm definitely not. But I just don't understand the sentiment that he can be completely written off if he's not playing 3B. It seems like anywhere he can be a -5 fielder he has a shot to carve out a career as a second division starter.

Exactly. What kind of offense do you really think a decent 1B/LF/RF puts up in this offensive era? Vitters might not have great potential outside of 3B, but it's not like it's 3B or bust for him as a valuable piece. If he can get the K's back down to his minor league rate, he's somewhere between a good bench player or a league average starter at any of the other corner spots, depending on his fielding.

Sosa, Prior, Wood are higher than everyone there except Grace (Sosa is higher than Grace). Just looking at hitters. Sorry, I thought that was obvious. And Sosa wasn't a homegrown guy. And yeah, whether Murton qualifies or not is an interesting question too. But I found it interesting that a guy that was run out of town for productivity reasons after just about two full seasons worth of at bats was the 8th best position player produced in the last quarter-century.

I had Mark Grace on the brain today after seeing he's going to jail for a few months. And whenever somebody mentions his name, the second thing to pop into my head (after the slumpbusters) is how we haven't had any good hometown players since him. Just out of curiosity, I decided to compile the fWAR list. Numbers are just from their time on the Cubs. Mark Grace - 46.1 Geovany Soto - 12.4 Rick Wilkins - 11.8 Starlin Castro - 9.1 That's your top 4 since 1988. Castro is poised to take over the "best since Grace" title pretty soon. But the interesting/disturbing part is the next four on the list. It's not been a great 25 years.

Instead of basing their opinion strictly on the .275/20 projection, don't you think it is just as others have said? That BA is weighing his brief time in MLB last year a little too heavily and that's why he is ranked so low? To me, that's the most likely explanation at least. I think you're right. I just hoped Callis was better than that. Ranking Vitters that low isn't just a bad ranking... it's a lazy one.

Nick Struck is only a year older than Jensen and just put up very similar numbers in AAA. I like Jensen a bit better than Struck on account of the scouting reports, but I have a hard time arguing to take him over guys with decent scouting reports like Rondon/Zych/McNutt. Age relative to league is a big factor working against Jensen right now.

What odd comps. Vitters walked more often last year than Johnson or Hillenbrand ever did in the majors (or minors, far as I can tell). Johnson strikes out 25% of the time and Hillenbrand had very little power for the offensive era he played in. Just looking at last year... mid-to-high teens on the strikeout rate. Low walk rate. Moderate power... Best comp I can come up with is Kyle Seager with a bit less speed and defense. The 2013 version of Brett Lawrie is pretty similar too (though I expect more of Lawrie going forward). That's an optimistic projection perhaps. It's assuming his walk rate improvement sticks, his strikeout rate drops back down to the levels he had in the minors in 2010 and 2012, and he's capable of playing merely below-average defense. But if he can he's a league average or slightly better starting 3B. But is that his best case scenario? Hardly. He's shown an ability to limit K's down to around 11-13.5% (2009 and 2011). And at just 23 there's still a chance the power scouts projected finally becomes a reality. He did ISO .210 last year -- it was the PCL, but he was young for the league. This feels like that Junior Lake ceiling argument all over again.

Yeah, there's no real way to justify that ranking. I'm thinking Callis is paying way too much attention to that cup of coffee. I'm much more comfortable with trusting NSBB's top 30 list than I am BA at this point.

Mayo has Baez 16, Almora 39, and Soler 42.

Swoon

I wouldn't read too much into the falling vote total on this one. A lot of people vote and don't check back in on the thread until the next one comes up. I'm sure a few missed the opportunity to re-vote.

It sucks that we couldn't get Upton. But since Towers was very clearly focusing on filling their hole at 3B and avoiding bad attitude types, it's no shocker that we had nothing short of Castro that enticed him.

28. Ha - Very likely to be a quality 4th OF. 29. McNutt - Stuff and proximity to the bigs. At 30 I keep flip flopping between a bunch of guys. Jensen, Bruno, Scott, Struck, Martin, mostly. I'm voting Jensen right now, but could be swayed by the arguments I'm seeing.

I don't have anything to add that hasn't already been said. I like it, but it's a good short-side-of-the-platoon guy -- there's only so much value to be had there. I don't think this necessarily takes us out of the Bourn sweepstakes, either. You find a place for 4 WAR guys on good contracts; they're still trying to shop Soriano and even if they can't, keeping his legs fresh means there's still a good deal of playing time for DeJesus/Schierholtz/Hairston between LF and RF. None of them is the sort of player you just can't afford to bench. It would probably mean Sappelt gets to go back to Iowa though.

Hard throwing lefty, and (I believe) a hometown guy. I'm not a huge fan, myself. RHP. I figured it out. I was thinking of Casey Crosby.

Hard throwing lefty, and (I believe) a hometown guy. I'm not a huge fan, myself.

Same The upside picks at this point all have major warts. Zych is just a reliever, but he's close to major league ready, and his peripherals point at him as a potential late inning guy. Ha looks likely to carve out a career as a pretty good 4th OF. McNutt is kinda the reverse of Zych - crappy peripherals, but better scouting reports. I like McNutt less, but he's in that same general area.

As a GM, Rizzo has very obvious strengths and even more obvious weaknesses. I think he's more suited to a rebuilding team than a competing one.

Olt's a better prospect than Vitters more because of the glove than because of the bat right now.

If Wells had just bit the bullet and had TJS I'd have him ranked ahead of Whitenack. But the odds are pretty high he's going to suffer through a wasted season or try to baby his arm and develop more slowly than he should. Personally, I went with Watkins, Whitenack, and Rondon. I'm starting to think I should have ranked Rondon higher, to be honest.

When looking at rate stats, it's probably best to remember that Amaya's are buoyed by a BABIP 73 points higher than Hernandez (.360 to .287). Given that it's WAY too early to make any statements about Amaya's ability to sustain BABIPs like that, the gap probably isn't nearly as large as it first appears.

If he's starting the year in Peoria I'm not surprised most people are writing him off as a Cubs prospect.

20.) Logan Watkins - Solid walk rate. Declining K rate. Good wheels. He's looking like he could be a pretty excellent utility guy, and has some ceiling beyond that. 21.) Alberto Cabrera - The K/BB ratios in the minors were soooo sexy this year. But that control seems to come and go. Ultimately I have doubts he'll develop the consistency to stick in the rotation, but he could be a shut down reliever. 22.) Robert Whitenack - Purely a nod to his first few starts in 2011 and some decent scouting reports as of late. Also in play for me were Tony Zych, Barrett Loux, and Ben Wells. Zych is behind Cabrera solely because of the 10% chance Cabrera has to start. Loux and Wells are behind Whitenack just because I feel more confident in Whitenack's health since he actually had the necessary surgery, rather than trying to rehab through it. Edit: Yeah, it's definitely starting to get difficult now. As an aside, I just bothered to look up Rondon's stats. They were quite impressive before the injury. Anybody got a scouting report?

When in doubt, pick the SS.

17.) Torreyes - I love the low K approach. 18.) Hernandez - Gets the nod based on his potential to stick at SS. 19.) Amaya - K's are worrying, but the power is encouraging. I've got Watkins essentially tied with this group. I like his game better than Amaya right now, but the age thing is what leaves him off at this moment. I also heavily considered Cabrera at this point (I have Cabrera ahead of Underwood, for the record.)