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Rob

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  1. Rob

    2015 Rotation

    Rob replied to Tim's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    for the phillies Man this [expletive] is like the cult of Orton but for Castro. [expletive]. Not even remotely. Your opinion of Castro's value is way off. You have to be kidding me. People generally either way over value him like you, or way undervalue him, (ie he sucks because he doesn't hit 25 home runs a year). Few people get it right, he's a good young player with value that is nearly immediately replaceable. Why do you continue to act like Addison Russell has anything to do with Starlin Castro's trade value? We can replace Castro, sure. But Castro's trade value is for the teams that don't have an Addison Russell in the minors. Most of those teams would be willing to give up something a lot more valuable than a 30+ year old pitcher on a market-value contract. You need to pick a better target for your weird boner. Hell, I'd sooner trade Castro straight up for a guy like Syndergaard than I would for Hamels. And there are even better options out there than him (giving up Castro+ for Stanton is an easy target).
  2. Rob
    I'm not seeing much to suggest Cooper is anything more than a marginal middle relief prospect (not that Jackson was worth much more than that). Best case scenario probably has him filling the Blake Parker role in a few years.
  3. Rob
    I wont get too broken up over it if we don't get Castillo. I've already got Alcantara and Soler penciled in at CF and RF, respectively. Signing Castillo would basically force Valbuena to the bench when Bryant is ready, so the marginal gain there isn't huge (and possibly nonexistent). I think he'll go to a team that needs him more. If we do sign him, I'll take that as a definite sign that the Cubs are looking to trade some of their young guys this offseason. Edit: I suppose it's possible that signing Castillo would push Alcantara to a super utility role. I wouldn't mind seeing him settle into that role eventually, but I'd be real surprised if the Cubs relegate him to that role so quickly when he's been effective to this point.
  4. Rob
    Pretty excited about this. He's got some decent writers who are going to help him too. Not Hulet though. Hulet sucked. Looks like he's going to be handling some prospect stuff still, but it will all be fantasy-based.
  5. Rob
    Sure. That's basically replacement level. I can buy him as a replacement level 1b/3b guy who spends most of his time at Iowa but sometimes appears on the MLB roster. Yeah, pretty much. If we're lucky he has a 1.5 fWAR season off the bench when he gets some positive BABIP variance, only to see Cubs fans cry in agony when Theo and Hoyer flip him for something more useful.
  6. Rob
    Mike Olt has a career .162 BABIP. He's not a guy that should have a high BABIP, but the most recent figure I can find for him suggest his BABIP should be in the .260-.270 range. If we assume his BABIP should be .260 and all the missing hits are singles, his line should look something like .192/.271/.379 That still sucks, mind you. But it's basically what Moustakas is doing and I'm sure plenty of you would get excited if we had Moustakas in AAA and he was showing signs of life. He's still an extreme longshot to turn into a productive major leaguer, but his first taste of the bigs wasn't the kiss of death for his potential that some took it as.
  7. Rob
    Yeah, well the other two triplets will double up on you like you've always dreamed, and one a has a great hookup for weed.
  8. Rob
    Imagine your whorehouse has triplets who all usually charge $1. And you brought that wrinkled dollar bill with you. Trading Castro for Hamels is like picking the triplet who is on sale for $0.80 tonight, but refuses to make change. Trading Castro+ for Stanton is your exotic hooker who is available one night only. You're out in your car digging under the seat trying to come up with enough extra change for that one.
  9. Rob
    This is an emphatic no. Thank you, TT. I couldn't even figure out how to get started breaking down that convoluted nonsense. (Though what was really jumping out at me was the suggestion that the lowest WAR total from Bryant, Baez, Russell, Alcantara, and Castillo would match or beat Castro. -- That was seriously pants-on-head crazy.)
  10. Rob
    Here's a heat map of all the pitches to lefties, not just changeups. http://i.imgur.com/vTml8Hz.png
  11. Rob
    Let's make three big assumptions. 1.) Hamels stays healthy and is a 4 fWAR player for the next four years. 2.) Lester and Scherzer are exactly the same as Hamels for the next four years. 3.) Castro stays healthy and remains a 3 fWAR player for the next five years. We would be paying $6M per win for Hamels. $2.9M per win for Castro. This ignores the fact that Hamels is post-prime, already has arm issues, and has a manager who has tried to actively ruin his arm. It ignores the fact that Lester and Scherzer are just a half tick better than Hamels and don't have quite the same injury concerns. It also ignores that Castro is pre-prime and has some room for growth. So of the big 3 assumptions, all are optimistic towards Sulley's view of the situation. At the standard quote of $6M per win on the free agent market, that would mean Hamels is projected to be worth exactly what he's paid. Castro would be worth about $46M more than he's being paid. Let's take that $46M and toss it on the back end of Hamels contract. It would look like 6/$142M, which should be enough to bring in one of Lester or Scherzer. That means they could miss the last two seasons of that contract entirely and we'd be no worse off. Anything better than replacement level would be gravy. Trading Castro for Hamels is dumb.
  12. Rob
    "I'm positive the Cubs value getting players on reasonable contracts. That's why they're going to trade their pre-prime 23 year old SS signed to a significantly below-market deal in order to acquire a beat up 30 year old pitcher whose contract can best be described as 'at least it's not 5-7 years.'"
  13. Rob
    Yeah, park and league adjustments. Lester looks about 2% better after you take them into consideration. Lester has a career 3.59 FIP. That's good for a FIP- of 83. Hamels has a career 3.48 FIP. That's good for a FIP- of 85.
  14. Rob
    fine. but they still would have also traded samardzija for hamels (assuming the russell trade wasn't on the table). I sincerely doubt it.
  15. Rob
    I did not realize this board had such a weird obsession with Hamels until today.
  16. Rob
    Yeah Jesse Rogers was on the radio earlier and said this was the first time since spring training he saw Theo, Jed, and Mcleod all down on the field watching BP at the same time. That's a clear sign Javier Baez is about to be called up. Heh. My personal hope is that it's a sign they're talking about an extension.
  17. Rob
    Interesting article on Javy's game yesterday. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/javier-baez-and-the-anomalous-dinger/
  18. Rob

    2015 Rotation

    Rob replied to Tim's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    Arrieta, Masterson, Wood, Jackson, Doubront Edit: I know it's boring. I think it's what happens though.
  19. Rob
    I'm much happier with Bremer and Arias than I was when we thought it was Dunston. Definitely a nifty little pickup. He may never get fixed, but I have faith that somebody from the Turner, Doubront, Straily, Wada, Hendricks group will turn into something. I'm still not convinced Grimm doesn't deserve a shot to be in that group too.
  20. Rob
    Noooope. Better pitcher? Sure. But Samardzija's market value blew Hamels' out of the water. well, that's crazy, but I guess we agree to disagree. Do you think Beane would have given up Russell for the right to pay Hamels $24M per year for the next 4 years? Do you think the Cubs will? Samardzija is a lesser pitcher, but the gap between their salaries was much bigger than the gap between their production. Also, Hamels' value now is artificially depressed due to the fact the Phillies can only deal with us. (And we aren't in a playoff hunt that could warrant an overpay)
  21. Rob
    Why avoid the obvious comp? Big guy who can't really stick in the field. Good approach at the plate. Looks like he should have a lot more power than he's showing... Left handed Billy Butler.
  22. Rob
    Noooope. Better pitcher? Sure. But Samardzija's market value blew Hamels' out of the water.
  23. Rob
    Then the Cubs have unreasonable expectations about what Hamels should return too Do they? Hamels is signed for 4/96 after this year. He's a 4 fWAR pitcher on the wrong side of 30 with recent injury issues. He's worth almost exactly what he's getting paid. If the Cubs want to acquire Hamels, they need to do so for a prospect cost of less than they feel Lester and Scherzer are likely to overpaid by. Otherwise, what's the point? Almora straight up would probably be just about an even match for that figure, but when was the last time you saw a guy like Hamels traded straight up for a guy in the middle of a team's top 10 list? Amaro is going to insist on other good prospects in the deal. I don't see our front office doing it. And I don't think they're wrong. Thanks Dave Cameron Fair enough. The only real advantage Hamels has over his peers is the length of his contract. Scherzer and Lester have higher ceilings, and can probably be acquired for something like 6/144. (That's the same AAV as Hamels). I'd rather see the Cubs flex their financial muscle a bit. The prospects can be better used elsewhere, to acquire something harder to get (Stanton, maybe).
  24. Rob
    Yeah, but getting a guy like him, Kluber, or Keuchel is going to cost a ton this offseason. Why buy high?
  25. Rob
    I was actually looking at this last night, and the name the jumped out to me(although I'm biased) was Kyle Gibson. I think he'd take a big leap outside the Twins org, they have a good bit of young pitching already, and they are a little different ideologically so they may be willing to make a deal to add some offense. Other guys with more question marks around them could be Patrick Corbin or Mike Minor. Yeah, Gibson would be real interesting. If we're talking about the Twins though, I'd love to see if they're falling out of love with Hughes. His ERA is way, way higher than his peripherals suggest. I'd snap up the last couple years of his contract in a heartbeat. Looking at it a bit now, I'd love to get Eovaldi.
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