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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Rob
    "I'm positive the Cubs value getting players on reasonable contracts. That's why they're going to trade their pre-prime 23 year old SS signed to a significantly below-market deal in order to acquire a beat up 30 year old pitcher whose contract can best be described as 'at least it's not 5-7 years.'"
  2. Rob
    Yeah, park and league adjustments. Lester looks about 2% better after you take them into consideration. Lester has a career 3.59 FIP. That's good for a FIP- of 83. Hamels has a career 3.48 FIP. That's good for a FIP- of 85.
  3. Rob
    fine. but they still would have also traded samardzija for hamels (assuming the russell trade wasn't on the table). I sincerely doubt it.
  4. Rob
    I did not realize this board had such a weird obsession with Hamels until today.
  5. Rob
    Yeah Jesse Rogers was on the radio earlier and said this was the first time since spring training he saw Theo, Jed, and Mcleod all down on the field watching BP at the same time. That's a clear sign Javier Baez is about to be called up. Heh. My personal hope is that it's a sign they're talking about an extension.
  6. Rob
    Interesting article on Javy's game yesterday. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/javier-baez-and-the-anomalous-dinger/
  7. Rob

    2015 Rotation

    Rob replied to Tim's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    Arrieta, Masterson, Wood, Jackson, Doubront Edit: I know it's boring. I think it's what happens though.
  8. Rob
    I'm much happier with Bremer and Arias than I was when we thought it was Dunston. Definitely a nifty little pickup. He may never get fixed, but I have faith that somebody from the Turner, Doubront, Straily, Wada, Hendricks group will turn into something. I'm still not convinced Grimm doesn't deserve a shot to be in that group too.
  9. Rob
    Noooope. Better pitcher? Sure. But Samardzija's market value blew Hamels' out of the water. well, that's crazy, but I guess we agree to disagree. Do you think Beane would have given up Russell for the right to pay Hamels $24M per year for the next 4 years? Do you think the Cubs will? Samardzija is a lesser pitcher, but the gap between their salaries was much bigger than the gap between their production. Also, Hamels' value now is artificially depressed due to the fact the Phillies can only deal with us. (And we aren't in a playoff hunt that could warrant an overpay)
  10. Rob
    Why avoid the obvious comp? Big guy who can't really stick in the field. Good approach at the plate. Looks like he should have a lot more power than he's showing... Left handed Billy Butler.
  11. Rob
    Noooope. Better pitcher? Sure. But Samardzija's market value blew Hamels' out of the water.
  12. Rob
    Then the Cubs have unreasonable expectations about what Hamels should return too Do they? Hamels is signed for 4/96 after this year. He's a 4 fWAR pitcher on the wrong side of 30 with recent injury issues. He's worth almost exactly what he's getting paid. If the Cubs want to acquire Hamels, they need to do so for a prospect cost of less than they feel Lester and Scherzer are likely to overpaid by. Otherwise, what's the point? Almora straight up would probably be just about an even match for that figure, but when was the last time you saw a guy like Hamels traded straight up for a guy in the middle of a team's top 10 list? Amaro is going to insist on other good prospects in the deal. I don't see our front office doing it. And I don't think they're wrong. Thanks Dave Cameron Fair enough. The only real advantage Hamels has over his peers is the length of his contract. Scherzer and Lester have higher ceilings, and can probably be acquired for something like 6/144. (That's the same AAV as Hamels). I'd rather see the Cubs flex their financial muscle a bit. The prospects can be better used elsewhere, to acquire something harder to get (Stanton, maybe).
  13. Rob
    Yeah, but getting a guy like him, Kluber, or Keuchel is going to cost a ton this offseason. Why buy high?
  14. Rob
    I was actually looking at this last night, and the name the jumped out to me(although I'm biased) was Kyle Gibson. I think he'd take a big leap outside the Twins org, they have a good bit of young pitching already, and they are a little different ideologically so they may be willing to make a deal to add some offense. Other guys with more question marks around them could be Patrick Corbin or Mike Minor. Yeah, Gibson would be real interesting. If we're talking about the Twins though, I'd love to see if they're falling out of love with Hughes. His ERA is way, way higher than his peripherals suggest. I'd snap up the last couple years of his contract in a heartbeat. Looking at it a bit now, I'd love to get Eovaldi.
  15. Rob
    Do they? Hamels is signed for 4/96 after this year. He's a 4 fWAR pitcher on the wrong side of 30 with recent injury issues. He's worth almost exactly what he's getting paid. If the Cubs want to acquire Hamels, they need to do so for a prospect cost of less than they feel Lester and Scherzer are likely to overpaid by. Otherwise, what's the point? Almora straight up would probably be just about an even match for that figure, but when was the last time you saw a guy like Hamels traded straight up for a guy in the middle of a team's top 10 list? Amaro is going to insist on other good prospects in the deal. I don't see our front office doing it. And I don't think they're wrong. Relative to Lester/Scherzer, the 4 year duration is a big benefit. Agreed. I'm even operating under the assumption that Lester and Scherzer are likely to find themselves overpaid due to years 5-7 of whatever contracts they manage to get -- just not by enough to justify a huge prospect package from the Cubs to get Hamels. Agreed. Not sure who it would be though. There's no real obvious targets for a Latos type of trade out there this offseason. Quintana, maybe? But he'd cost a ton with that contract.
  16. Rob
    Who's doing that? I threw him out there as an example of a deal the Cubs would offer, but the Phillies wouldn't accept. Vogelbach is a guy that people throw out there as a trade chip less because of his value but more because he's obviously a man without a position for the Cubs. Even if the bat comes around, he needs to be on an AL team so he can DH.
  17. Rob
    Then the Cubs have unreasonable expectations about what Hamels should return too Do they? Hamels is signed for 4/96 after this year. He's a 4 fWAR pitcher on the wrong side of 30 with recent injury issues. He's worth almost exactly what he's getting paid. If the Cubs want to acquire Hamels, they need to do so for a prospect cost of less than they feel Lester and Scherzer are likely to overpaid by. Otherwise, what's the point? Almora straight up would probably be just about an even match for that figure, but when was the last time you saw a guy like Hamels traded straight up for a guy in the middle of a team's top 10 list? Amaro is going to insist on other good prospects in the deal. I don't see our front office doing it. And I don't think they're wrong.
  18. Rob
    Yeah, there's just about a zero percent chance that anything gets done. Amaro has already shown he has unreasonable expectations about what Hamels should return in a trade. And maybe there was a chance he'd get it when playoff teams were shopping for upgrades, but the Cubs aren't under the same market pressure to add wins this season. I'd be shocked if the Cubs were willing to include someone of Almora's prospect status. Vogelbach, and spare parts maybe.
  19. Rob
    I was higher on Dunston than most, so this sorta takes the wind out of my sails a bit. It's still a worthwhile swap, but I was hoping not to give up quite so much.
  20. Rob
    I was there for the Sam Fuld catch. Ouch.
  21. Rob
    You're welcome.
  22. Rob
    is this especially low compared to other teams or something? The hell if I know. I just thought it was interesting. I'm not about to figure out individual teams though. http://baseballsavant.com/pitchfx_search.php?hfPT=&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfAB=&ddlStadium=&hfBB=&hfHL=&hfCount=&ddlYear=2014&ddlPlayer=pitcher&ddlMin=0&ddlPitcherHand=&ddlBatterHand=&ddlVGT=98&ddlVLT=&ddlDistGT=&ddlDistLT=&txtAngleGT=&txtAngleLT=&txtGameDateGT=&txtGameDateLT=&ddlTeam=&ddlPosition=&hfRO=&ddlHomeRoad=&hfIN=&hfOT=&ddlGroupBy=name&ddlSort=desc&ddlMinABs=0&ddlSBSuccess=&txtPx1=&txtPx2=&txtPz1=&txtPz2=&ddlRPXGT_ft=&ddlRPXGT_in=&ddlRPXLT_ft=&ddlRPXLT_in=&ddlRPYGT_ft=&ddlRPYGT_in=&ddlRPYLT_ft=&ddlRPYLT_in=&txtBAGT=&txtBALT=&txtBLGT=&txtBLLT=&txtSRGT=&txtSRLT=&txtSDGT=&txtSDLT=#results
  23. Rob
    The more I think about it, the more I think we don't even have to give that up. If the Marlins were to not come to agreement with the claiming team, then they either have to give him up for nothing or keep him on the 25-man roster the rest of the year, since he has no options remaining. They clearly don't want to keep him on the 25-man roster. So I am not sure what negotiating power they will have. Mainly I am not sure why they waited until August to do this. Today I learned that you can add a player back to the 25 man after DFA'ing him.
  24. Rob
    Fact: The Cubs have only thrown 8 pitches clocked by PitchFX at or above 98 mph. Rondon threw 7. Samardzija threw the other one. Nobody has thrown 99 mph or higher.
  25. Rob
    I never thought I'd say this, but I'd love to see the Cubs grab him. It's just 15 IP, but he's posted some interesting numbers as a reliever, with a 19.7 K% and 4.2 BB%. So even if Bosio can't work some magic and make him a valuable member of the rotation, he could be a pretty effective reliever.
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