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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Rob
    I notice that nobody is debating that when Harden is pitching, he's pretty much just as good as any other pitcher out there. (Which is good, as simply looking at xFIP the last few years would eviscerate most arguments to the contrary). The problem most seem to have is that he doesn't pitch all that many innings. In a bit of math that I'm sure everybody here can understand, let's walk through this. How much money do the best pitchers in baseball make? $20 mil or so? Harden pitches what, 50% as many innings as a conservative estimate? Well then, Harden's probably worth about half as much... or somewhere in the range of $10 mil. There are mitigating factors of course, his bat, the chance he finally has that one healthy season, the chance he throws six innings and breaks down, and all that jazz about shuffling the rotation and bullpen to account for the innings he doesn't pitch. But if anybody is coming up with a drastically different figure than that $10 mil, they're probably doing something wrong... my money would be on being unable to see past ERA and a flukey home run / fly ball rate.
  2. Rob
    It includes their arm. Edit: dew made me feel like my answer should include a bit more, so... It breaks down how often a player has thrown out an advancing runner compared to the league average, as well as how often the runners attempt to advance. Outfielders actually get credit if their arm is so scary that people dont even try running on them anymore.
  3. Rob
    At a position populated by big, slow sluggers who take awful routes, the fast guy who takes awful routes can still be above average pretty easily. If his leg injuries manage to recover during this offseason, he should be fine out there again.
  4. Rob
    It's also unfortunate that Ryan Theriot can't hit like Hanley Ramirez. To be fair, there was a time when Soriano was a passable second baseman, there's never going to be a time when Theriot hits like Hanley. Not to stray too off topic, but was there ever a time when Soriano was a passable left fielder? I'm not even sure why he was moved in the first place. At least his offense was plus for a bad defensive 2B. Now he's just an about-average offensive LF that plays dreadfully amateurish outfield defense. Up until just last season, he'd been significantly above-average defensively in LF.
  5. Rob
    It's also unfortunate that Ryan Theriot can't hit like Hanley Ramirez. To be fair, there was a time when Soriano was a passable second baseman, there's never going to be a time when Theriot hits like Hanley. On April 8th this year, they both went 2-4 with no XBH. But Theriot even managed a walk on top of everything Hanley did.
  6. Rob
    Only if the other team requires it. Byrnes: How about Robinson Cano? Cashman: Make it Phil Coke and we have a deal. Byrnes: Sweet! Byrnes prolly thought he was getting a heir to the Coca-Cola fortune. From the looks of the trade, I'd think it more likely he thought he was getting some blow.
  7. Rob
    His well publicized mockery of the use of advanced metrics in decision making, and strict adherence to small-ball philosophies that are more likely to cost our team runs (and wins) than gain any. His knowledge of the game makes him seem like he'd be a wonderful coach, but he shouldn't be allowed to make any decisions about strategy or personnel.
  8. Rob
    Yeah, the Yankees are the other primary bidder for his services.
  9. Rob
    Reports are Braves will look to trade Soriano, he has to approve a trade before June 15. Knowing that Hendry is looking for a vet out of the bullpen Soriano could make sense, if they aren't asking a ton for him and it's more of a salary relief move. That June 15th rule applies to guys signed as free agents, not guys retained through arbitration. Corey Patterson was traded in the same offseason after accepting arbitration, for example. Soriano accepting arbitration is him being signed as a free agent. Correctamundo. (I've been wanting to use that word all day for some reason)
  10. Rob
    Scrappy little white guy with a heart of gold. Personally, I only support him over guys like Hawpe and Dye because they are awful options, not because he's a particularly good one. Cameron for instance is a pretty obvious upgrade. That said, fielding and baserunning are the new OBP... being currently undervalued by the vast majority.
  11. Rob
    Saito too.
  12. Rob
    What makes people think this? Matt Murton deserves a shot but Sam Fuld doesn't. Not necessarily you, but this is where people who rely mostly on stats lose credibility in my opinion. They argue Fuld should not be given a chance because you can't rely on a small sample size of success last year and his minor league stats don't suggest he will be a good player at the major league level. Meanwhile, a guy who has bounced around organizations doesn't get the shot "he deserves". The great Billy Beane had no use for Murton. Why? It may have something to do with his lack of defensive ability and his hitting does not overcome his bad defense. Beane could have had Murton again but instead chose Jake Fox. Interesting. On the other hand, Fuld plays good defense, has better speed and has shown an ability to get on base at the major league level but most people here don't want to give him a chance. I'm not necessarily advocating Fuld for CF, I'm just trying to point out the double standard that exists. I am the single biggest defender of Sam Fuld on this board, being on the record as preferring him to a number of other options including names like Brad Hawpe and Jermaine Dye. Oh, and the Fox versus Murton comparison is silly. Fox isn't being acquired to play in the field, which Murton had to do. And Murton isn't a bad defender. He's just not a good one. Same for his offense... not good, but not bad either.
  13. Rob
    Good for him. It was becoming painfully apparent that he was never going to get the shot he deserves here.
  14. Rob
    If he's willing to pitch in middle relief (with a chance at a swingman role) at or around league minimum, that's a great idea. But he'll want to start, or at least have a significant role in a bullpen. And he'll want to be paid a few million bucks for it. Pass.
  15. Rob
    By the numbers, he's certainly got the qualifications. But the Balco stuff and his generally antagonistic relationship with the media will likely keep him out.
  16. Rob
    Further destroying the use of wins as a stat, lets look at the starts in which Zambrano didn't get a win. How many games do you see on that list where Carlos pitched badly and it likely cost the Cubs the game? I count three... His first two starts off the DL at the end of August, and his last start on Sept 30.
  17. Rob
    What exactly is it that you think this HOF argument proves? That wins matter? Or that they're valued by sportswriters? And how is it proving a point to look at a pitcher nobody is debating was good, only to point at one minor number in their stats and say "this is why they're good"? It only proves that you think that's why they're good. You haven't made a cogent argument yet, but you carry yourself as though you're teaching all us whippersnappers a thing or two about baseball, by golly. It'd be comical if it weren't so sad.
  18. Rob
    Well it depends on how you go about fielding that old team. The Cubs were older than most and not good. If you have 32 year old stars, you have known quantities and will be good. If you have 31 year old mediocre players, you will be younger but worse. And generally, the youngest teams will be teams in transition, who had to get rid of their established players and go with a bunch of youth, much of which maybe should still be in the minors. Youth, in and of itself, is not a quality. But at the same time, neither is age. A 36 year old journeyman is a 36 year old journeyman and a 23 overmatched player is still overmatched. If you are older, but good, that's great, if you are older, and not good, that's really bad. And that's the Cubs. If you are younger and good, that is ideal, but if you are a younger and bad, at least there is room for improvement. I agree, but age alone is not a negative. Some here act like that's the most important metric. Age is the most important metric when you're giving multi-year contracts to guys on the wrong side of 30. Stop making things up.
  19. Rob
    I think it's more likely because of an injury, but that's the crux of it, yeah. The Cubs may have gone 16-10 during that month Soto was out, but it was in no way because Hill did his job anywhere near acceptably well. He's exposed quickly when given too much time. As such, provided the cost is cheap enough, I wouldn't be opposed to acquiring a more reliable backup.
  20. Rob
    Agreed judging pitchers value by season-season wins is going to give you very mixed results on how good a pitcher actually is. However I do think wins can be used, to a point, for judging the value/effectiveness of a pitcher over a whole career. Along with all the other things like whip, era+, k/9, h/9, etc. No, you can't. The assumption that Wins might mean something in the long run is based on the idea that a pitcher is likely to be on an equal number of bad teams and good teams. Careers just aren't long enough to make that assumption, especially considering how long a team has control over a player when they break into the league. There are numerous, better metrics to use in evaluating a player. I'd barely even bother to gloss over wins when trying to judge a player's worth.
  21. Rob
    In 1987 Nolan Ryan pitched 211.3 innings (good for 9th in the league). He did this with an ERA a quarter of run lower than anybody else in the league, and he lead the league in strikeouts. He allowed the second fewest HR/9. Had the highest K/BB ratio in the league. He allowed the fewest H/9. Despite all of this, he went 8 - 16 and lead the league in losses. W-L record is a joke and says a hell of a lot more about the team than it does about the pitcher. Anybody who still uses it to judge a pitcher's worth in this day and age needs to be taken out back and put out of their misery Old Yeller style.
  22. Rob
    why would he? Because Hill isn't very good?
  23. Rob
    I keep getting the feeling we're going to trade for Burrell and get hosed both there and when we have to flip him.
  24. Rob
    Okay, help me out here because I obviously don't understand intangibles. How exactly is having a PED user on the team just fine, but having an [expletive] (who hasn't broken any rules) isn't? I like Mike Cameron. He's a hell of a baseball player. But for all those people trying to justify letting Bradley go on some sort of moral grounds, it seems like your logic train jumped the tracks if you're okay with acquiring Cameron to replace him.
  25. Rob
    I would never give a player who is so reliant upon his speed for value a 4 year deal... especially a speed player over 30. One badly pulled hamstring and you've got no value left.
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