CP_414

Everyone can give him at bats. He's not going to get 600 and start 30 games, but he can get 300. The Mariners will gladly put Cruz in the OF for 50 games to get Ohtani. They've already said this publicly. Everyone is going to let him try to hit if he wants to.

You are looking at ABs not PAs. Lester had 65 PAs and all the Cubs starters had injuries last year. Arrieta had 70 and 83 PAs the 2 previous years and Lester had 75 and 71 over those years. 70-80 is a fair estimate of PAs for a good starting pitcher hitting 9th (sometimes 8th). I imagine Ohtani would also be pinch hit for less than those guys. If he wants 300 PAs, give him 300 PAs for a year. Don't lie. Don't say no. Just do it for a while and see how it goes. If he gets a chance and can't hit then make him a pitcher, but if he asks for an opportunity to do both then let him. That's the trade off. You get a #1 starter for 300k but you have to give him more PAs. I'm sure every team can deal with that trade off. meh, the original post by Sammy said ABs and I didn’t feel that I needed to provide any more info to make my point. None of the numbers you threw out were 100+. And “don’t lie. Don’t say no” is ridiculous. The man sent questionnaires out asking how teams were going to integrate him both pitching and hitting. You really think the way you “didn’t lie” to your parents in high school works here? What? I said PAs and you tried to correct me using a wrong number. I don't understand your 2nd point at all. He asked how teams will use him so we should lie like a 16 year old trying to get drunk and laid? He wants to know how teams will integrate him to pitching and hitting...I don't know, maybe tell him how you plan to do that. If the dude wants to get 300 PAs and start 25-30 games as a SP like he did in NPB, then let him do that. There are going to be other free agents. If you promise him the chance to hit and immediately go back on that everyone will know you don't negotiate in good faith. For a team that has had guys come here for less, stuff like that matters. His agent has other clients. Other GMs need to have some level of trust in you to make trades. You can't just be a scumbag and keep operating like it didn't happen.

100+ isn't enough. A NL starting pitcher gets about 70-80 PAs in a season hitting 9th on the days they start. Promise him whatever he wants and let him actually do it for the first season. If he sucks offensively then you transition him to a more traditional role in year 2. I'd suggest letting him start every 6th game as a pitcher, get about 40 starts in the OF/DH and then be available to pinch hit the other days. That would get him 27ish starts and 250-300 or so PAs. That's about the same number of PAs that he had each year in Japan. But I wouldn't lie. Let him do whatever it takes to get him here and his performance will decide how to move forward after year 1. Arrieta led the team with 61 ABs last year. A Lora had 299. Somewhere in between is probably about right. Let him take TLS’s 125. You are looking at ABs not PAs. Lester had 65 PAs and all the Cubs starters had injuries last year. Arrieta had 70 and 83 PAs the 2 previous years and Lester had 75 and 71 over those years. 70-80 is a fair estimate of PAs for a good starting pitcher hitting 9th (sometimes 8th). I imagine Ohtani would also be pinch hit for less than those guys. If he wants 300 PAs, give him 300 PAs for a year. Don't lie. Don't say no. Just do it for a while and see how it goes. If he gets a chance and can't hit then make him a pitcher, but if he asks for an opportunity to do both then let him. That's the trade off. You get a #1 starter for 300k but you have to give him more PAs. I'm sure every team can deal with that trade off.

You only have to get him 100-200 ABs once. If he can't hang, he's smart enough to know. Or maybe he's such a freak that he'll just make himself better. Or maybe you get a 14 WAR player. It literally doesn't matter. Promise him whatever it takes to get him here. If he can't do it well enough, keep him out of the lineup. What's he gonna do, retire? Exactly. Like I said, a bunch of AB's in the 100+ range makes sense; lie, lie, lie. 100+ isn't enough. A NL starting pitcher gets about 70-80 PAs in a season hitting 9th on the days they start. Promise him whatever he wants and let him actually do it for the first season. If he sucks offensively then you transition him to a more traditional role in year 2. I'd suggest letting him start every 6th game as a pitcher, get about 40 starts in the OF/DH and then be available to pinch hit the other days. That would get him 27ish starts and 250-300 or so PAs. That's about the same number of PAs that he had each year in Japan. But I wouldn't lie. Let him do whatever it takes to get him here and his performance will decide how to move forward after year 1.

I'd avoid the biggest money players on the FA market this year if possible. I wouldn't trade Schwarber now to open a spot for Harper. I'd be open to trading him for a cost controlled pitcher, but don't feel obligated to do so now for Harper. I expect that someone will be traded for a controlable pitcher, but still doubt that it will be Schwarber. If Harper wants to sign here the Cubs won't have a problem creating a spot for him. The top of this FA class sucks, but there are lots of good value relief pitching options. I'd grab as many of them as possible and save the big money for next winter. Make a trade for a starting pitcher and sign a cheap short term starting pitcher. I don't think that is a setback for 2018. They can improve the bullpen and rotation without giving out a multi year deal at $18M AAV.

He doesn't have a very long track record of success. If he's offered 85-90% of a reasonable free agent type contract that would be hard to turn down. It gives him close to his value and takes away a lot of risk on his end. An extension doesn't have to mean you are giving up a ton of money (Strasburg extended while on the cusp of free agency). A trade/extension like Porecello and the Red Sox did makes sense for a Duffy/Pineda type.

I said Cubs are out "until 2019 at the earliest, unless something changes." It's just a statement of a fact. Not pessimistic. Under the new CBA the Cubs are limited to a 300k bonus for him while other teams can offer nearly $10 million. Any team can give him a 1 year opt out to free agency to get him to come over. Hopefully something changes. Under the current rules however, he won't be a Cub in 2018. What I'm saying is only being able to offer $300K doesn't make them 100% out. If loopholes in the CBA allow for an extension to be tacked on then $300K vs $6M on the one year portion makes relatively little difference. Unless Otani is a really really trusting guy, I doubt that's an option. The extension would need to be immediate and I don't see how that's allowed. It's the same as giving a $200 million bonus. The loophole I'd be curious about is if IFA signees can be traded immediately. If so, maybe you work out a sign and trade with Otani getting the FA opt out after 1 year. I think easily the most likely scenario is that he dominates in his home country until he's 25 and then comes over knowing he's getting $200 million+. Any other option requires him to take on major risk.

My understanding is that the 2 year penalty for going over the "limit" that was in place with the old CBA carries over to this CBA. So they'll have the roughly 4.75 mil pool of money to spend, but can't go over 300k on any 1 player next year. 2 year penalty (as opposed to one year)? Is that because we went over a second time in 2015-16? In the old CBA the 2 year penalty was for going over by more than 15%. This was year 1 for the Cubs penalty, so it applies to next IFA year, too.

I said Cubs are out "until 2019 at the earliest, unless something changes." It's just a statement of a fact. Not pessimistic. Under the new CBA the Cubs are limited to a 300k bonus for him while other teams can offer nearly $10 million. Any team can give him a 1 year opt out to free agency to get him to come over. Hopefully something changes. Under the current rules however, he won't be a Cub in 2018. Why are the Cubs limited to a 300k bonus next year under the new CBA? My understanding is that the 2 year penalty for going over the "limit" that was in place with the old CBA carries over to this CBA. So they'll have the roughly 4.75 mil pool of money to spend, but can't go over 300k on any 1 player next year.

Passan had a new article today that said there will not be an Otani exception. Under the current rules all they can do is give him the max IFA money and then free agency after a year built into the contract. The Cubs can only offer 300k next year in that scenario. Another team could give him close to 10 million and then an opt in to FA. Maybe that changes, but for now the Cubs are out on him until at a minimum the 2019 season. I'll stick with the way I think about it. Unsigned deals on the CBA and NPB, along with Otani's unclear motivations leave anything up for grabs. Not counting on him the way I was but to say "Cubs are out" for sure based on what MLB is current telling Passan seems pessimistic. I said Cubs are out "until 2019 at the earliest, unless something changes." It's just a statement of a fact. Not pessimistic. Under the new CBA the Cubs are limited to a 300k bonus for him while other teams can offer nearly $10 million. Any team can give him a 1 year opt out to free agency to get him to come over. Hopefully something changes. Under the current rules however, he won't be a Cub in 2018.

Thanks. So there is zero possibility Otani is a Cub in 2018 without a CBA rule change. If for whatever reason he elects to come over and play for the CBA allowed maximum signing bonus he won't be going to the Cubs for 300k. Either he waits until 2019, they make a rule change, or the Cubs can't bid. If he comes over there's going to be more to it than just the $300K or $6M. Some kind of craziness with an extension or him doing a one year thing. Won't be a long term deal of $6M. And if they are able to work out some kind of extension then $300K vs $6M doesn't seem like it would be any kind of insurmountable thing for a guy who's made some money in Japan. Personally I'm counting out nothing. I have nothing to back this up but I doubt he has to wait til 2019 to come over. Guessing it's just MLB negotiating with NPB of union through the media. Passan had a new article today that said there will not be an Otani exception. Under the current rules all they can do is give him the max IFA money and then free agency after a year built into the contract. The Cubs can only offer 300k next year in that scenario. Another team could give him close to 10 million and then an opt in to FA. Maybe that changes, but for now the Cubs are out on him until at a minimum the 2019 season.

I didn't verify, but I saw a tweet yesterday that said their pool is 4.75 million and that they can't sign anyone over 300k. Thanks. So there is zero possibility Otani is a Cub in 2018 without a CBA rule change. If for whatever reason he elects to come over and play for the CBA allowed maximum signing bonus he won't be going to the Cubs for 300k. Either he waits until 2019, they make a rule change, or the Cubs can't bid.

Are the Cubs still in the IFA penalty next year which would limit them to no player over 300k?

If Castro is in there, then 4 years of Zobrist is too. And even if Castro isn't in there, throw in a World Series title. That too. I don't love Soler for Davis, but Torres and filler for Chapman and Castro's trade creating the opportunity for Zobrist both worked out pretty well.

If Castro is in there, then 4 years of Zobrist is too.

I had read that due to market size they were never supposed to receive revenue sharing, but they were allowed to participate because of their stadium mess. If they are removing them from the revenue sharing pool, they probably have a plan for a new ballpark.

So Morosi tweeted that the IFA limits will now apply to Cubans under 25, not 23. That would really suck if they just delayed Otani's arrival by 2 years, assuming it also applies to Japan/Korea.

Hatch can be traded. They changed that rule a couple years ago after Trea Turner. Draftees can now be traded after the World Series.

Because one of them has more value tied to being a good defensive player at a premium position. but while Trout may turn into an ordinary CF, then a great corner OF - Harper will descend further down the rank of passability in RF, possibly even toward 1B...so i question that this favors either player I get what you are saying, but I don't see Bryce becoming a 1b anytime soon. I just think Bryce is the better hitter and that ages better. Bryce was slightly better last year. They are pretty close this year so far. As a side note, Trout is already a pretty average defensive CF. Most of his positive dWAR comes from his play on the corners. They are the two best players of this generation. Like I said, I'm not sure there is really a wrong answer but I'd take Harper moving forward. Edit- maybe I'm an idiot with dWAR but the biggest difference between the two players is the positional adjustment between Trout who mostly plays cf and Harper who mostly plays RF. Their numbers prior to the adjustment are not that far apart. Bryce in a very limited sample has also held up fine in CF. I'm not sure the defensive gap between the two of them is as large as their dWAR suggests.

why would this only affect one of them? Because one of them has more value tied to being a good defensive player at a premium position.

i would. trout has 41 career WAR before his 25th birthday. harper has 21 before his 24th. amazing, yes. and yet, not even close to trout. even after his breakout last year, harper is at 11.5 from 2015-today. trout is at 11.4 in that same span. mike trout is 7th since 1900 for WAR 25 and under, despite having at least 169 fewer games played than the next lowest (rogers hornsby) on that list. next next lowest have 263 more games played - mantle and arod. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=1900&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=14,25&filter=&players= trout is baseball mt rushmore good. harper has a lot of catching up to do to be that. I'd take Harper over the next 10 years. Defense peaks early, trout runs less than he used to, and Bryce is the better hitter. There's not really a wrong answer here, but moving forward I'd take Harper.

McCarver was complaining about teams trying to drive up pitch counts on the opposing pitcher last night. "Get him out of the game by scoring runs, not by raising his pitch count!"

The majority of posts on Arguello's website include pictures he did not take, but he doesn't seem to source any of them. I can't stand him. He should go back to pretending he's a scout without basic addition skills, and worry less about how the unmarked image he posted on a public forum is being shared by the public.

They are doing that OJ 30/30 over 4 or 5 days this summer. I saw a review of a portion of it that was released to critics recently and they said it is the best thing ESPN has ever produced.

$10 a month is crazy. If they build strong traffic on a free site, they should be able to generate far more through advertising than they'll get in subscriber fees. The goal should be to get investors to keep it going to a point where they can be supported by advertising to get to a point where they can sell the site to a large media company. They'll need a lot of traffic to get to the point of being purchased and you can't get traffic as a startup if you charge. I think they should reconsider their plan. Based on their comments, they seem to be banking on people being willing to pay for analytic based coverage. I don't think that will be the case.