CP_414

Everything he wrote is true. But it’s not hard to write an optimistic version of the same thing. Outfield - Schwarber was a 3.5 war player with an opportunity to improve offensively, Heyward/Almora isn’t great but they probably make up an above average CF platoon, sign motherfucking Bryce Harper. Infield - we know what healthy Kris Bryant is, and Rizzo might be starting to decline but he’s still very good. Even if Javy doesn’t match 2018 it’s easy to see 3.5+ war from him in 2019, Zobrist/Bote/some cheaper free agent can give you good 2b production without being a POS like Russell. Contreras has become a question mark, but 2/3 seasons have been very good. Rotation - Tyler Chatwood won’t get any starts. Yu Darvish can’t possibly give them less than he did in 2018. Hendricks is solid. Even when he’s bad, he’s not that bad. They can keep Hamels. Quintana is fine. Lester is that dude that will outpitch his FIP in the back half of his contract because of the Cubs defense and because he’s Jon Lester. Bullpen - They’ll add arms. Coaches - who cares Take a low 90s win team and give them a healthy Kris Bryant, hopefully a 2016-17 Contreras, no horsefeathering Chatwood starts and Bryce horsefeathering Harper.

Is that new? It didn't used to be that way. Teams have gotten stuck with guys before. Only if they claim a guy on irrevocable are they “stuck” with him. Revocable both sides can always decide not to do a deal, like the Brewers could’ve claimed Murphy to prevent him from getting to us and just said “no thanks, we won’t do a deal” and that’s that. The Nats could have said “you’re taking him” and the Brewers would be on the hook for the $4 million he’s owed. Only the team that puts him on revocable waivers can pull him back. They claiming team can decide not to make a trade offer, but they can still be forced to accept the player/remaining contract.

He is indeed considered a 1B/DH only type player. He played RF his freshman year and seemed okay to me on video, but reports say he was pretty bad out there. Some scouting reports don't like his swing and worry about how he'll perform with a wooden bat. I don't have a strong opinion on him, but his performance and production are undeniable. He might go at the end of the 1st round or right after the 1st round. Thanks for the responses. I won't pretend to scout the stat line, but the stat line is something.

I haven't followed draft prospects very closely this year. What's the deal with Seth Beer? Statistically, he looks so much better than the other college bats mocked in the late first, but he isn't a first round pick in most mock drafts. Is his defense that bad? First base/DH only?

Agreed. I see why people are excited about his potential. I see why people think this isn't smart.

Is Chatwood a FIP beater? His ERA is pretty close to his FIP and almost identical to his xFIP for his career. It looks to me like he's getting the results that he has deserved to this point. ...did I mention he pitches in Coors? Did i mention his road peripherals? That's what this whole thing is about. The guy wrote that his road peripherals are not much better than his home ones.

Is Chatwood a FIP beater? His ERA is pretty close to his FIP and almost identical to his xFIP for his career. It looks to me like he's getting the results that he has deserved to this point. I didn't say that anywhere. I was explaining the reason for the discrepancy between his fWAR and his bWAR Gotcha. Because you said fWAR doesn't like GB pitchers who don't strike everyone out I took it as you thinking that bWAR was more accurate for a player like Chatwood. So I'm just saying that fWAR is probably correct to not like pitchers who don't strike many out and who walk a lot, but I misinterpreted what you were saying.

Do you think that's a flaw with fWAR or do you think that's a flaw with guys who don't strike many out? I don't think it's a flaw with anything. I just think fWAR/FIP can't be blindly applied and FIP beaters do exist. Is Chatwood a FIP beater? His ERA is pretty close to his FIP and almost identical to his xFIP for his career. It looks to me like he's getting the results that he has deserved to this point.

Where are you getting this? 5.1 fWAR in 6 "seasons" but fWAR doesn't like GB guys who don't strike many out. Do you think that's a flaw with fWAR or do you think that's a flaw with guys who don't strike many out?

Will you think this isn't a good deal if we sign Ohtani then bring in 1 or 2 AAAA filler types (Garza, Gee, Buchholz, etc)? Or if the 6-man rotation has some legs and we add Cobb and Ohtani? Or if we trade for a SP of a Cobb level? If you think this is our only significant SP add of the offseason then I get the hate/worry but I highly doubt it is and very well could be the "worst" pitcher we add. I don't think it's a bad deal right now. I am not saying it's a bad deal. I'm saying it's not crazy to be opposed to this. I fully expect them to add a starting pitcher much better than Chatwood, whether it's Ohtani or someone else.

Where are you getting this? Fangraphs. He has participed in 6 seasons and has 5.1 career WAR. If you want to be kind and exclude 2014 then he's at 1 WAR per season.

Wasn't morton's contract $12 million over 2 years? The only dodger pitcher that sort of compares to this is McCarthy and I don't think that worked out great. Hill and Kazmir were much better pitchers than Chatwood has been. Ryu and Maeda hadn't pitched in MLB. Didn't they get Wood basically for free in a trade? If the Cubs gave Chatwood the contract Morton signed nobody says a word. It's only "puzzling" to some because he got 3 years at decent money after being a combination of bad and injured most of his career. All those guys have similar risk profiles though. Morton was 2/14 with some incentives with IP/GS, Hill is 10 years older than Chatwood and got $10 million more plus an additional year and has pitched ~60 less innings the last 2 years, Kazmir was signed coming off of 2 really nice years but he was 31 when he signed and there were plenty of red flags and got 3/48, Wood is cheap and gotten for cheap but carries a injury risk and they depend on him more than the Cubs will likely depend on Chatwood this year, and Ryu/Maeda were risks coming over with not huge profiles of being more than back of the rotation guys (Maeda a little more hype than Ryu). They all are pitchers that carry risk is what my main point is and the Dodgers have a lot more than we do and it's a fine way to build your middl-end of the rotation if you don't have minor leaguers coming up/ability to give out multiple Lester type deals. I think it's a stretch to compare him to most of those guys. Hill was very good before he signed there. Kazmir was coming off 3 good years. All better than anything Chatwood has done yet. McCarthy was the most similar but he still had much more success prior to the trade. Wood made little money and they got him for nothing. The Japanese players had no history good or bad. Again, i personally am not opposed to this deal. I just don't think it's a hot take to be puzzled by this. A reasonable person can look at this and say that it's not a good idea. That doesn't mean they are correct. It just means it's a fair take.

The guy with a 4.6 career FIP with less than 1 WAR per season and a career 15.6% k rate and 10.7% BB rate. Being on the Cubs might help him perform well, but that's not the same as saying that he has performed well. He has not.

He hasn't had 5.7 fWAR in his career let alone the last 2 years.

I don't want to be arguing against this because I don't hate it, but a WS contender giving 3 year commitment to a guy that hasn't been very good who has had 2 tommy John surgerys can be puzzling. John Lackey being trash doesn't have anything to do with the 2018 rotation. This describes like 80% of the Dodgers rotation the last 2-3 years (Hill, Wood, Kamir, McCarthy, Ryu, Maeda,etc) and they've done just fine and the Astros did it with Morton. This is a perfectly fine move and way to build a rotation for a WS contender (especially when you have anchors like Lester, Q, Hendricks, Kershaw, Kuechel, Verlander, etc.) Wasn't morton's contract $12 million over 2 years? The only dodger pitcher that sort of compares to this is McCarthy and I don't think that worked out great. Hill and Kazmir were much better pitchers than Chatwood has been. Ryu and Maeda hadn't pitched in MLB. Didn't they get Wood basically for free in a trade? If the Cubs gave Chatwood the contract Morton signed nobody says a word. It's only "puzzling" to some because he got 3 years at decent money after being a combination of bad and injured most of his career.

It's not hard to argue this is puzzling. I personally don't feel that way, but Chatwood has not had good results. He hasn't been healthy. He got $40 million and he'll get 25+ starts next year if healthy. You can argue that a WS contender giving $40 million over 3 years and a rotation spot to a change of scenery pitcher is puzzling. It doesn't matter. I just don't think it's a hot take. I think it's an opinion that he disagrees with. If you did not know what Coors was, then this is puzzling. The guy in the article says just about everything we have already said in this thread, but for unexplained reasons dislikes the deal. When you compare Chatwood's adjusted stats to the price of FA pitching, there is absolutely nothing to puzzle about, for ALL OF THE REASONS HE MENTIONED IN HIS OWN ARTICLE. If it's all Coors then why are his peripherals not better on the road? That's all the guy is saying. You can't just look at his road ERA and say this is great. He's still not getting lots of Ks on the road. He's still walking a ton on the road. He still has the same injury history. The Cubs need to add a ton of pitching, so this is fine. I prefer this to signing Cobb, so I'm ok with the risk. Let's just not act like we know that he is going to pitch well moving forward.

Why is that a hot take? Because there's nothing the slightest bit puzzling about it. You can not like Chatwood, but this move replaces Lackey with a younger, cheaper pitcher who was twice as valuable as Lackey last year. I don't want to be arguing against this because I don't hate it, but a WS contender giving 3 year commitment to a guy that hasn't been very good who has had 2 tommy John surgerys can be puzzling. John Lackey being trash doesn't have anything to do with the 2018 rotation.

Why is that a hot take? Seems like a reasonable argument to me. I don't hate this deal. I don't love it either. They need pitchers and he should benefit from leaving Coors, from the Cubs defense, and maybe from new coaching/pitch usage. He still walks a ton of guys and doesn't get a lot of Ks and has had TJ twice. It's fair to think this isn't a great signing. It's worth the risk for the Cubs, but it's not a no brainer. The headline is a super hot take. The article is fine and reasonable. It's not hard to argue this is puzzling. I personally don't feel that way, but Chatwood has not had good results. He hasn't been healthy. He got $40 million and he'll get 25+ starts next year if healthy. You can argue that a WS contender giving $40 million over 3 years and a rotation spot to a change of scenery pitcher is puzzling. It doesn't matter. I just don't think it's a hot take. I think it's an opinion that he disagrees with.

Why is that a hot take? Seems like a reasonable argument to me. I don't hate this deal. I don't love it either. They need pitchers and he should benefit from leaving Coors, from the Cubs defense, and maybe from new coaching/pitch usage. He still walks a ton of guys and doesn't get a lot of Ks and has had TJ twice. It's fair to think this isn't a great signing. It's worth the risk for the Cubs, but it's not a no brainer.

It's nothing. Just speculation that maybe he has known from the beginning who he will sign with and that because he crammed 7 meetings into two days this process might be for show. There are no real quotes, just a one word quote from an executive involved wondering if his team is being "played."

that doesn’t bode well for us. Or the Dodgers. I think no one else has restrictions right? Padres are under the restrictions, too.

I don't know. If a Chicago isn't an acceptable location, the Cubs would have been eliminated. The Cubs might not get him but if he was ruling out Chicago, you'd think they wouldn't be on his list. He eliminated every team that has Spring Training in Florida and about half the teams that train in AZ.

I get it with Salazar, but he's a beast when healthy and is probably the most talented pitcher they can get in a Happ led trade. He has 3 years control remaining. Even if they get Ohtani, they still have a bit of a surplus with position players and a need for good pitchers. Especially with Ohtani probably facing an inning limit this year. With Duensing I was just trying to think of a lefty that might sign a 1 year deal. I figure Duke or Logan, if we take a one year lefty. That works.

I get it with Salazar, but he's a beast when healthy and is probably the most talented pitcher they can get in a Happ led trade. He has 3 years control remaining. Even if they get Ohtani, they still have a bit of a surplus with position players and a need for good pitchers with team control. Especially with Ohtani probably facing an inning limit this year. I don't really like Cobb. He's ok, but He's pretty far down my list. With Duensing I was just trying to think of a lefty that might sign a 1 year deal.

I'll try... Ohtani, of course. A Trade based around Happ+Edwards to Cleveland for Danny Salazar. I like CJ, but Cleveland is likely looking for a DH and relievers after they likely lose both in free agency and Salazar is rumored to be available. Sign Morrow (3 years), Nicasio (2 years), Duensing (1 year) for the bullpen. Sign Drew Smyly to 1 year + team option contract. Sign Rene Rivera and Curtis Granderson to 1 year deals. Rotation - Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, Salazar, Ohtani, Montgomery (sometimes), maybe Smyly in the 2nd half Bullpen - Morrow, Nicasio, Strop, Wilson, Duensing, Montgomery (sometimes), Maples/Grimm, maybe Smyly in the 2nd half Contreras, Rivera Rizzo, Javy, Russell, Bryant, Zobrist, La Stella Schwarber, Almora, Heyward, Ohtani, Granderson This team is probably looking for another top relief pitcher at the deadline, but it is otherwise loaded and avoids adding any big contracts this winter to save cash for Harper under the lux tax.