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nilodnayr

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Everything posted by nilodnayr

  1. nilodnayr
    Wow, salt in the wound.
  2. nilodnayr
    95% of relievers or pitchers or whomever do not regularly sit in the 94-97 range and often reach 100 and absolutely dominate hitters with a knockout fastball/power slider combo. Starting this year helped him turn a corner as evidenced by his second half of the season in the pen in AA with a respectable 3 BB/9. Its not an "if" Ceda can harness his control, its "if" Ceda can maintain his control or somewhere around it he'll be a dominant closer. "If" he doesn't, he'll be a set up guy. If you are really concerned about his control, then man, I hate to show you Kevin Gregg's (or even Carlos Marmol's) BB rates. And thats my whole point. If you don't like Ceda, then you shouldn't like Gregg.
  3. nilodnayr
    People really need to stop suggesting this as a possiblility. The Padres don't want a 5M mediocrity as their closer. Why not? They've been paying 8m a year for a mediocre closer for years. Because they rescinded a 4M offer to a mediocre closer this year? And that was a guy they'd have to give up 0 players for? Come on. The Padres rescinded the offer because the pitcher in question had no intention of signing for that offer, not that they weren't willing to give it to him. In the meantime, the Padres are minus a closer. And they weren't willing to go over $4M for him, so that shows you how much they want a mediocre releiver. I know I don't need to introduce you to this guy, but you are acting like I do.
  4. nilodnayr
    People are calling Hendry an idiot for trading Ceda for Kevin effing Gregg From what I see, many are also tying it into losing Wood. I am usually big on holding onto prospects, but I don't see the allure of a minor league reliever to get so damn upset at the GM to call him names and question whether he can do the job. For everyone who hates on a guy because hes a dominant reliever I would like you to familiarize yourself with a concept called "leverage". What leverage does Ceda hold on the market? Show me. Leverage as in "high leverage situation". You cast the scarlet R on him, but bringing in a guy to mow down a teams 2-3-4 hitters in the 8th inning in a close game is about as valuable as an average starter performing averagely for the first 6 innings of a game. You speak as if it is fact that Ceda will be that dominant of a major league reliever. That is a large reach as of right now. I'm speaking of relievers in general. Only time will tell if Ceda turns out to be able to continue to somewhat harness his control, like he did while relieving last year, but if he does, yeah he'll be a dominant major league reliever.
  5. nilodnayr
    I agree, I am in the camp of thinking the trade was idiotic and also am not a fan of giving out a ton of money to wood. Our choices weren't just kevin gregg and Kerry wood you know.
  6. nilodnayr
    People really need to stop suggesting this as a possiblility. The Padres don't want a 5M mediocrity as their closer. Why not? They've been paying 8m a year for a mediocre closer for years. Because they rescinded a 4M offer to a mediocre closer this year? And that was a guy they'd have to give up 0 players for? Come on.
  7. nilodnayr
    Exactly. If Ceda had potential to start then this is a bad trade, but I see this as the Cubs trading future Kevin Gregg type reliever for the present Kevin Gregg. The only thing that sucks is the cost, but that offset by him becoming a FA after next season. So I don't know why people are upset about Ceda/Gregg deal, it's a blah deal no doubt. So you are OK with trading 6 years of controlable extremely low average cost Kevin Gregg for 1 year of somehwat costly Kevin Gregg? If so, then if you give me 6 $20 bills, I'll give you a one crisp $20 bill. So you are guaranteeing that Ceda will have success in the majors? Not saying there is a shot, or even going as far as to say it is likely..you are saying for 100% fact that he will have an impact in the majors? Because otherwise your $20 bill comparison is useless. He has nearly as good a shot as Gregg does next year. That is not fact. That is purely speculation. No [expletive] sherlock
  8. nilodnayr
    People are calling Hendry an idiot for trading Ceda for Kevin effing Gregg From what I see, many are also tying it into losing Wood. I am usually big on holding onto prospects, but I don't see the allure of a minor league reliever to get so damn upset at the GM to call him names and question whether he can do the job. For everyone who hates on a guy because hes a dominant reliever I would like you to familiarize yourself with a concept called "leverage". What leverage does Ceda hold on the market? Show me. Leverage as in "high leverage situation". You cast the scarlet R on him, but bringing in a guy to mow down a teams 2-3-4 hitters in the 8th inning in a close game is about as valuable as an average starter performing averagely for the first 6 innings of a game.
  9. nilodnayr
    Exactly. If Ceda had potential to start then this is a bad trade, but I see this as the Cubs trading future Kevin Gregg type reliever for the present Kevin Gregg. The only thing that sucks is the cost, but that offset by him becoming a FA after next season. So I don't know why people are upset about Ceda/Gregg deal, it's a blah deal no doubt. So you are OK with trading 6 years of controlable extremely low average cost Kevin Gregg for 1 year of somehwat costly Kevin Gregg? If so, then if you give me 6 $20 bills, I'll give you a one crisp $20 bill. So you are guaranteeing that Ceda will have success in the majors? Not saying there is a shot, or even going as far as to say it is likely..you are saying for 100% fact that he will have an impact in the majors? Because otherwise your $20 bill comparison is useless. He has nearly as good a shot as Gregg does next year.
  10. nilodnayr
    People are calling Hendry an idiot for trading Ceda for Kevin effing Gregg From what I see, many are also tying it into losing Wood. I am usually big on holding onto prospects, but I don't see the allure of a minor league reliever to get so damn upset at the GM to call him names and question whether he can do the job. For everyone who hates on a guy because hes a dominant reliever I would like you to familiarize yourself with a concept called "leverage".
  11. nilodnayr
    Exactly. If Ceda had potential to start then this is a bad trade, but I see this as the Cubs trading future Kevin Gregg type reliever for the present Kevin Gregg. The only thing that sucks is the cost, but that offset by him becoming a FA after next season. So I don't know why people are upset about Ceda/Gregg deal, it's a blah deal no doubt. So you are OK with trading 6 years of controlable extremely low average cost Kevin Gregg for 1 year of somehwat costly Kevin Gregg? If so, then if you give me 6 $20 bills, I'll give you a one crisp $20 bill.
  12. nilodnayr
    Fine, I'll come out and say it... I think Jose Ceda in 2009 in the majors would be as good as, if not better than Kevin Gregg. Those are the wrong numbers to look at. The Cubs like to take closers and have them start for half a year or so to work on their control and get them innings. And guess what, it worked really really well for Ceda, as he moved up to AA and dominated once again. Here are his #s as a reliever last year: IP=35 FIP=3.05 Average against: 230 BABIP: 347 BB/9: 3.6 K/9: 12.34 His MLE for his relief stats are as follows: FIP=3.68 Average against: 261 BABIP: 346 BB/9: 3.67 K/9: 9.17 He did let up a lot of fly balls, but 32% of them were infield flies, meaning batters were not getting good wood on his pitches. It was Goldstein that said he put on some soft weight, but regardless, this guy is a latin Bobby Jenks clone. If you don't like him, thats fine, but if selling high on him nets you Kevin Gregg, then you should give him a shot in the majors to see if you can really sell high on him. Worst case scenario is he flops and you've got nothing, best case scenario is you've got something that every single team creams themself for, a young, cheap closer type guy.
  13. nilodnayr
    I was just about to say that. Piniella has always been either coy or clueless about anything that Hendry is/will be doing. His standard line is "we talked about it a while ago, I haven't heard anything since". Take little stock in anything Piniella says about anything the GM is doing.
  14. nilodnayr
    How can it not?
  15. nilodnayr
    I think thats Lous way of sending a message to Jim, that message being stop dicking around and get me a lefthanded hitter. The fixation on handedness in this organization makes my eyes bleed. Jesus Christ man, you should go to a doctor!
  16. nilodnayr
    For reference: 2004 draft: Lost their 1st round pick 2005 draft: Lost their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks 2006 draft: 1st round pick was protected (Lincecum), lost their 2nd and 3rd round picks (but got a sandwhich and the Cubs 3rd rounder for Eyre) 2007 draft: 1st round pick was protected (Bumgarner), lost their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks (but picked up two firsts and three sandwhiches) 2008 draft: 1st round pick was protected (Posey), lost their 2nd (but got a sandwhich)
  17. nilodnayr
    We can't get their first round pick. Their 6th pick in the first round is protected. Howry is near the bottom of the Type A's and Sabean is talking a big game about signing guys, so we'd probably end up with the sandwich and third or fourth round. Regardless, it would be awesome.
  18. nilodnayr
    I'm pretty sure December 1st.
  19. nilodnayr
    OMG thats perfect!!!! Sabean LOVES signing guys before the arb deadline so he loses draft picks. It would be insane if we can get 2 picks out of Howry.
  20. nilodnayr
    Typically, he only links to analyses or opinions from blogs. Tim pretty much only posts rumors from MSM now.
  21. nilodnayr
    If the Braves offer is so much greater than the Cubs why isn't a done deal? I think the Cubs can compete with any offer from the Braves unless they offer up some of their top prospects (Hanson). If the general feeling is that the Braves can overwhelm a Cubs offer, the you have to think the Padres/Cubs/Third Team? are trying to get something worked out. Maybe with news now that Grienke may be out in Kansas City there could be a deal getting him to San Diego? I agree. So either the Braves offer isn't as good as what has been reported (meaning no Escobar or Hanson), or Peavy is specifically asking Towers to trade him to the Cubs and Towers is using the Braves to up the offer from the Cubs. Or he wants to get another player from the braves If it not Hanson/Schafer/Heyward then why haven't the Braves included the player (I would assume Locke is a choice)? So while that may be a scenerio, ryan, I doubt it is what keeping the Braves from getting Peavy. Maybe because the braves dont think they have to? Then I suggest the Braves remove themselves from the table. Cause if they are not willing to pay up for a pitcher like Peavy then they shouldn't get him. Not to mention if the Braves think that then they won't get Peavy. Its called negotiating
  22. nilodnayr
    Maybe we get the Royals to be the third team in a Peavy deal? Find a way to get Greinke to San Diego? I'd rather have Greinke that Peavy. I wouldn't go that far. Unless of course Greinke meant the Cubs spent big on the offense (Texiera, Manny). SD would be making out if they got Greinke in a 3-way deal for Peavy. All things considered...I would. While Greinke obviously isn't as good as Peavy, hes not terribly far off and has a much much better production to salary ratio than Peavy (they're probably pretty equal in 2009, but Greinke is much more cost effective in 2010). Not to mention, he probably would cost less in terms of prospects to send AND, as you mentioned we'd be able to spend more money elsewhere.
  23. nilodnayr
    If the Braves offer is so much greater than the Cubs why isn't a done deal? I think the Cubs can compete with any offer from the Braves unless they offer up some of their top prospects (Hanson). If the general feeling is that the Braves can overwhelm a Cubs offer, the you have to think the Padres/Cubs/Third Team? are trying to get something worked out. Maybe with news now that Grienke may be out in Kansas City there could be a deal getting him to San Diego? I agree. So either the Braves offer isn't as good as what has been reported (meaning no Escobar or Hanson), or Peavy is specifically asking Towers to trade him to the Cubs and Towers is using the Braves to up the offer from the Cubs. Or he wants to get another player from the braves If it not Hanson/Schafer/Heyward then why haven't the Braves included the player (I would assume Locke is a choice)? So while that may be a scenerio, ryan, I doubt it is what keeping the Braves from getting Peavy. Maybe because the braves dont think they have to?
  24. nilodnayr
    If the Braves offer is so much greater than the Cubs why isn't a done deal? I think the Cubs can compete with any offer from the Braves unless they offer up some of their top prospects (Hanson). If the general feeling is that the Braves can overwhelm a Cubs offer, the you have to think the Padres/Cubs/Third Team? are trying to get something worked out. Maybe with news now that Grienke may be out in Kansas City there could be a deal getting him to San Diego? I agree. So either the Braves offer isn't as good as what has been reported (meaning no Escobar or Hanson), or Peavy is specifically asking Towers to trade him to the Cubs and Towers is using the Braves to up the offer from the Cubs. Or he wants to get another player from the braves
  25. nilodnayr
    Maybe we get the Royals to be the third team in a Peavy deal? Find a way to get Greinke to San Diego? I'd rather have Greinke that Peavy.
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