nilodnayr

1-1) Albert Pujols 1-2) Jose Reyes 1-3) Johan Santana 1-4) Alfonso Soriano 1-5) Alex Rodriguez 1-6) Carlos Beltran 1-7) Ryan Howard 1-8) Miguel Cabrera 1-9) Carl Crawford 1-10) Chase Utley 1-11) Derrek Lee 1-12) Chris Carpenter 2-1) David Wright 2-2) Lance Berkman 2-3) Grady Sizemore 2-4) David Ortiz 2-5) Vladimir Guerrero 2-6) Manny Ramirez 2-7) Mark Teixeira 2-8) Travis Hafner 2-9) Derek Jeter 2-10) Carlos Lee 2-11) Matt Holliday 2-12) Carlos Zambrano 3-1) Jake Peavy 3-2) Aramis Ramirez 3-3) Justin Morneau 3-4) Joe Mauer 3-5) Paul Konerko 3-6) Miguel Tejada 3-7) Jason Bay 3-8) Hanley Ramirez 3-9) Jimmy Rollins 3-10) Roy Halladay 3-11) Brandon Webb 3-12) Dan Haren 4-1) Garrett Atkins 4-2) Ichiro 4-3) Vernon Wells 4-4) Brian McCann 4-5) Roy Oswalt 4-6) Felix Hernandez 4-7) Ben Sheets 4-8) Bobby Abreu 4-9) Jeremy Bonderman 4-10) Andruw Jones 4-11) Victor Martinez 4-12) Jermaine Dye 5-1) Michael Young 5-2) Robby Cano 5-3) Rafael Furcal 5-4) Francisco Rodriguez 5-5) Bill Hall 5-6) Cole Hamels 5-7) Brian Roberts 5-8) Joe Nathan 5-9) Adam Dunn I did this to myself by chosing 3 20 HR guys in my first 4 picks. I know I said I draft for average, but I really needed another power hitter (who wasnt a firstbaseman). Optimisticly, I predict a palatable 260 BA from Dunn this year.

Speaking of Kemp, is he going to get any playing time with the Gonzo signing?

Yeah, I think its really a coin toss between Helton and Drew. I just thought I'd rather give Helton a few more ABs to keep Drew healthy.

You should just give Rolen to him and move on. Although I'm dying to make my next pick, and Wolf is a Cards fan, there are just somethings you dont do.

where are the dodgers and angels?

Health is a need of any team. However, moreso on this team than most others given the recent and current health issues. I agree with him here. Like I said, I disagree that if Z's contract is looming during the season it will not affect his performance. But, it is a huge concern for the future of the team, which is another point in the article. I partially agree with him here. I believe it is wrong to assume Floyd will be starting. I also believe it is wrong to assume Murton will be starting. I disagree with him here. Wood will be in the bullpen for 2007, but his comments show that he feels it is necessary to do so, so he can become a starter. I dont think its going to be a problem. I disagree with him here. We can win with Soriano at leadoff, Perry acknowledges that as well, but it would not be the optimal way to use him. I agree with him here. While I may not agree completely with every little point he makes, I completely agree with the overall theme of the article, the cubs spent a lot of money this offseason, did not plan well for the future, and still are not clear favorites to win the division.

Wolf, Rolen is yours for the taking...

Unfortunately, PECOTA has been the best at predicting pitchers, and they are 1/3rd of a run less optimistic about Z, predicting a 3.79 ERA.

Those are all fine premises for articles, but they arent what this article is about. However, the fact that this article states that there are no favorites for the NL central, implies all of those things you've said above. I guess some people just blindly hate certain journalists or anyone who says anything discouraging about the cubs. Thats your perogative, but the fact that you're argument against the article does not actually mention anything in the article, says a lot. I didn't see the need in sitting here rehashing line for line what has already been said. I commented that his contention that we need to be healthy is about as obvious as it gets and is true for every team in the league. Why does Wood have to be the closer? If Dempster plays like he did in 05, we are fine at closer. What impact does Zambrano's 08 contract have on his 07 season? None. Mark Prior needs to be healthy, you think? Soriano will bat leadoff and we can absolutly win with him there. Wood is "warming to the idea of pitching in relief"? He signed a contract KNOWING he will only pitch in relief when he could have gone elsewhere for a chance to start. He has incentives for games finished, but none for games started, I think he is beyond "warming up to the idea." I have not seen anything from the Cubs implying Floyd took Murton's starting job. This is weak journalism. He makes a bunch of obvious statements that could be done for any team and then gets some facts wrong. You can call it blind hate or whatever you want, a 2nd grader could write a better and more informative column. Yes, any team in any sport nees to be healthy. The point is, that the cubs have more players (and more important players) that were injured last year/we are not confident they are healthy this year. Its not news or anything, but if you are reading an article from a journalist (other than Bruce, of course) and are expecting anything really new and insightful, then you have to be kidding yourself. Wood doesnt have to be the closer, but Dempster pitched about as well as he did in 2005, last year and it didn't work out too well for him (a convo that has already ocurred in a different thread). I think his point is that Z doesnt need the extra distraction during the season. I don't necessarily agree with taht point, but a second theme of his article is that Hendry has not done a good job of focusing on the future this offseason. Not locking up Z is a good point in that argument. Soriano is much better suited to hit in the middle of the order, not leadoff. We all know this. We CAN win with him at leadoff, but its not going to help as much as he could. Everything I've read from Wood is that he sees pitching in relief in 07 as a necessary step to proving he is healthy enough to be a starter in 08. The contract that Floyd signed could be assumed as proof that if Floyd is healthy he will get significant time. Like I said, I wouldnt assume either way.

That would be a great argument if it was true. In Sept the team had a .414 winning percentage...better than their season total of .407. Who did we play other than Theriot, who was awesome? Well, it extends all the way back to the trading of Maddux and Walker-when most people talk about last years team, they talk about those two being on it-the team could have been a couple games better with those two. Lee would have come back and stayed if they were in the race. Z was held out one more start then he normally would have when he hurt his back. Aramis sat a couple more days then he normally would. There were a few more things with pitchers, but the biggest things were the trading of Maddux and Lee coming back late, and then leaving early. This is a team who had Henry Blanco playing first base for multiple games-that doesn't strike me as a team trying to win. Their winning percentage after Maddux got traded was .404. Right inline with their season total. Whether they were trying to win or not, they still ended up being just as good in Aug and Sept as they were the rest of the year.

Those are all fine premises for articles, but they arent what this article is about. However, the fact that this article states that there are no favorites for the NL central, implies all of those things you've said above. I guess some people just blindly hate certain journalists or anyone who says anything discouraging about the cubs. Thats your perogative, but the fact that you're argument against the article does not actually mention anything in the article, says a lot.

296/407/585 Yeesh.... That's pretty solid. Hopefully the fella can stay healthy. PECOTA is the least optimistic but all projection systems are pretty close. Nothing really earth shattering, he'll put up about 1000 OPS again. Easily. I can see him doing 300/410/590 with 50 HR's and 130 RBI's if he manages to play 150+ games. He could have easily eclipsed that last year, had it not been for that unfortunate hand injury. Probably more like 40 HRs and 120 RBIs if his slg is 590 and he plays 150 games. Except this year, he only played 129 games when he hit 42HRs and 117RBI That's where I came with my analysis of the 50/130. Then you are assuming his slugging is 660, not 590.

The problem is he could have wrote the same things for every team in the division. The Cards need Pujols, Rolen, Carpenter healthy The Astros need Berkman, Lee, Oswalt healthy The Brewers need Sheets, Fielder, Weeks healthy Every team in this division has tons of questions going into the season. What kind of production can the Cards get from the rotation after Carpenter? What kind of offensive production will they get from Molina, Kennedy, Encarnarcion? Will Edmonds continue his decline? Can the Astros keep Clemens? Do they have enough pitching without him to carry an average offense? What kind of offense can the Brewers get from LF, RF, SS and 3b? Is the bullpen good enough to protect leads in Milwaukee? Of course there are concerns about the Cubs, but there are just as many concerns about the Cards, Astros, and Brewers. It's a weak division. Except most of those ifs really arent ifs. He mentions the division is extremely weak and very winnable (he hates on the cards rotation and assumes clemens is gone). His point is just that even though the cubs spent a ton of money they arent a clear favorite. I think thats a fine premise for an article.

Yes, the Trib owns WGN. As far as a sale and Cubs broadcasts on WGN, who knows? A lot depends on whether the Trib is sold together or as parts. Also, just because the Trib might retain ownership of both the Cubs and WGN doesn't mean they won't find it more profitable to sell the Cubs rights to other networks. That's what I thought. I thought that the Trib owned WGN, but I wasn't 100% sure. I guessing what most out-of-towners fears are, is that if the Trib sold the Cubs, but keep WGN (or the other way around),then more than likely the Cubs playing on WGN could be over? I don't know what'll happen or what could happen, but I'm just trying to get a grasp of how things could possibly work, given the situation if the Trib does sell off one of the two, since I don't follow the situation closely. I'm guessing that even if they were separate entities the cubs and WGN could come to a mutually beneficial arrangement. The cubs depend on WGN for a national following, and if the cubs are decent, WGN depends on the cubs for viewership.

296/407/585 Yeesh.... That's pretty solid. Hopefully the fella can stay healthy. PECOTA is the least optimistic but all projection systems are pretty close. Nothing really earth shattering, he'll put up about 1000 OPS again. Easily. I can see him doing 300/410/590 with 50 HR's and 130 RBI's if he manages to play 150+ games. He could have easily eclipsed that last year, had it not been for that unfortunate hand injury. Probably more like 40 HRs and 120 RBIs if his slg is 590 and he plays 150 games.

I hate Perry, but I agree with the majority of things he said in the article. The only thing I would disagree with are the assumption that Floyd has the starting role and Murton does not. HOWEVER, I can definitely understand the assumption. Lou was pimping Murt at the convention, but I still don't think anyone can definitely say that Floyd will not significantly eat into his playing time. I would also say that the cubs biggest problem is getting on base, which they did not address in the offseason. Other than that, everything he said has been said on here a ton. Just because it says Dayn Perry on the by line everyone is jumping all over it. Yeah, he has stated the obvious, prior, lee, wood need to be healthy, but come on, the guy is writing an article on the cubs chances of winning the division. He HAS to say those things, even if they are obvious.

That would be a great argument if it was true. In Sept the team had a .414 winning percentage...better than their season total of .407. Who did we play other than Theriot, who was awesome?

296/407/585 Yeesh.... That's pretty solid. Hopefully the fella can stay healthy. PECOTA is the least optimistic but all projection systems are pretty close. Nothing really earth shattering, he'll put up about 1000 OPS again.

Also http://www.fangraphs.com now has under the "season stats" tab, Bill James, CHONE, ZiPS, and Marcel projections.

296/407/585

Ortiz always hits 3, Manny 4. If they retain Youk and get rid of lowell, I think they should go with the following lineup Youk Helton Ortiz Manny Drew Tek Crisp Lugo 2b

Drunk mock drafting!!!

Yeah I agree. I'm going to try to draft him again in my other league. Ideally Peavy and Sheets go unkept (well i know Sheets will go unkept since hes on my team) and I'll draft them both in the first two rounds (after the 5 keepers). In other words, exactly the opposite of the way the draft is going for me right now :)

True, I was just surprised to see he was projected as one of the three best NL pitchers. Really? Hes amazing, but has just been hurt so everyone forgets about him. He is just as good if not better when healthy than Carp, Peavy, and Z. His K rate is phenomenal, all the young MIL position players should be on the tail end of acclimating to the bigs, and the NL Central sucks. If healthy that should be good for 20 wins. Webb - 14-11, 225 inn, 177k, 67 bb, 3.61 EqERA, 3.69 ERA Carpenter - 14-9, 201 inn, 162k, 48 bb, 3.71 EqERA, 3.38 ERA Peavy - 13-8, 197 inn, 202k, 55bb, 3.58 EqERA, 3.27 ERA Zambrano - 13-11, 215.3 inn, 210k, 92 bb, 3.94 EqERA, 3.79 ERA Oswalt - 14-10, 213 inn, 163k, 50 bb, 3.89 EqERA, 3.69 ERA Sheets - 12-8, 170.7 inn, 170k, 30 bb, 3.43 EqERA, 3.36 ERA (forgot about Webb and Oswalt, sorry. But, those are his stats at 170 innings, if (and I know thats a big if) hes healthy of those listed, hes slightly behind Peavy in K rate, has the lowest bb rate, slightly behind Peavy in ERA, better than everyone in EqERA, and just behind Peavy in win%. Its all about whether or not he can take the field. I think its a good risk to take.

True, I was just surprised to see he was projected as one of the three best NL pitchers. Really? Hes amazing, but has just been hurt so everyone forgets about him. He is just as good if not better when healthy than Carp, Peavy, and Z. His K rate is phenomenal, all the young MIL position players should be on the tail end of acclimating to the bigs, and the NL Central sucks. If healthy that should be good for 20 wins.