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Jazz

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  1. Jazz
    Obviously not, or he would be performing this year. probabilistic outcomes. so weighing the probability that a Derosa having good year vs. Durham having a good year is not a skill, but a crapshoot? give me a break. lucky you aren't the gm or we'd have the awesome tandem of lugo and durham maning the Middle Infield! Yeah, what our arrogant friend doesn't understand is that it's not all about projected numbers. Yeah, PECOTA is a nice tool, but if a player has really made a breakthrough due to a change in his approach at the plate, the PECOTA numbers are going to be biased w.r.t. his previous performance. Ray Durham has suddently gotten old, and Marcus Giles is off steroids now. That's why scouting is also a part of the game. you dont need pecota to see durhams career norms were derosa's career year. i cant believe some of you are saying derosa was the right signing. well there is a difference when you compare durham to derosa. One is middle of his career, and following up on his 1st year as a starter, the other is nearing the end of his career. It is more "probable" (see i can use it to) that durham is washed up, and won't produce very much for the rest of his career, than it is that derosa is having a flukish year and a half, and will revert to his numbers as a platoon player.
  2. Jazz
    No I think I am. You're faulting Jim for being right or "lucky" when the odd, and you said he should have been wrong. How do you know Jim didn't look into the matter more thoroughly then just randomly deciding "yes lets throw money at this guy". nope youre not understanding it. alright. Rather than explaining your position, you'd rather be stubborn. That'll move the conversation swimmingly.
  3. Jazz
    thanks for putting in cubspeak you do know that sosa's career line before 98 was .246 AVG/.325 OBP, and well you know how that improved. sosa found the magic juice, corked bats and wasnt on the wrong side of 30. its a bad comparison and youre still not grasping what the hell probabilities are. of course its a bad comparison because sammy being on the juice, but you failed to bring that to the discussion beforehand, so i was merely responding accordingly. and corked bats? like that improved his game. what in the world are you talking about? i usually can follow most [expletive] train of thoughts but this [expletive] thought is about as random as any. if you're referring to the shoddy grammar of the post (which i think i corrected after the edit), then I can understand, but like I said, steroids weren't brought into the discussion, so I responded as such. The argument was that Derosa's new toetap didn't improve his game at all, so I provided evidence that it may have because of a similar toetap that was implemented by Sosa, who improved (but also with the juice obviously).
  4. Jazz
    No I think I am. You're faulting Jim for being right or "lucky" when the odd, and you said he should have been wrong. How do you know Jim didn't look into the matter more thoroughly then just randomly deciding "yes lets throw money at this guy".
  5. Jazz
    thanks for putting in cubspeak you do know that sosa's career line before 98 was .246 AVG/.325 OBP, and well you know how that improved. sosa found the magic juice, corked bats and wasnt on the wrong side of 30. its a bad comparison and youre still not grasping what the hell probabilities are. of course its a bad comparison because of sammy being on the juice, but you failed to bring that to the discussion beforehand, so i was merely responding accordingly. and corked bats? like that improved his game.
  6. Jazz
    Obviously not, or he would be performing this year. probabilistic outcomes. so weighing the probability that a Derosa having good year vs. Durham having a good year is not a skill, but a crapshoot? give me a break. lucky you aren't the gm or we'd have the awesome tandem of lugo and durham maning the Middle Infield!
  7. Jazz
    you do know that sosa's career line before 98 was .246 AVG/.325 OBP, and well you know how that improved.
  8. Jazz
    if roy oswalt isn't an ace, then there really aren't many aces left in baseball He's the best pitcher on that astros team, but he's not a top tier pitcher this year. Maybe this is just a down year for him, and I'll eat my words, but he isn't dominating like he used to.
  9. Jazz
    Obviously not, or he would be performing this year. Hendry didn't get lucky. He chose to get a player who was younger and could backup a number of positions well, for a lower price. Getting lucky would have been if Derosa had sucked his entire career until now. That is not the case.
  10. Jazz
    You're really being asinine here. Show me a stat that shows that he isn't forcing ground balls "like he used to". Fine, you don't want to use G/F, but he is on pace to to force 336 ground ball outs this year. His career in that stat 2004 - 356 2005 - 350 2006 - 288 how about groundball percentage? 55.5 in 2004 52.3 in 2005 49 this year he's not getting ground balls like he used to. I'm of the opinion that 2004 was a career year, and 2006 was a terrible year., and 2005 was per average for him. is 3.3 % really that huge a margin?
  11. Jazz
    so you ignore last year, his first year as a full time starter, because it was a "career year", but when he duplicates those numbers, it doesnt mean anything because hendry bought high? derosa was signed to a 3/13, compare that to the 2/14.5 deal of durham, and the 1/3.25, and I really don't think he overpaid. hendry cant see the future. there was little reason to think that DeRosa would continue his hitting. Durham would have been expected to add more bang for your buck. No one can see the future, but as a GM, you have to be able to guess whos going to a better value for what hole you need to fill. At the time of the signing, Derosa had come off a great year in his first year of starting and was 31 years old, and had shown he can play great defense at 2B, 3B, and RF. Ray Durham was pretty much only a 2B who had been consistent in the past, but was 35 years old and was going to command a much higher salary.
  12. Jazz
    You're really being asinine here. Show me a stat that shows that he isn't forcing ground balls "like he used to". Fine, you don't want to use G/F, but he is on pace to to force 336 ground ball outs this year. His career in that stat 2004 - 356 2005 - 350 2006 - 288
  13. Jazz
    so you ignore last year, his first year as a full time starter, because it was a "career year", but when he duplicates those numbers, it doesnt mean anything because hendry bought high? derosa was signed to a 3/13, compare that to the 2/14.5 deal of durham, and the 1/3.25, and I really don't think he overpaid.
  14. Jazz
    jason marquis G/F 2003 - 1.61 2004 - 2.17 2005 - 1.59 2006 - 1.16 2007 - 1.57 obviously 2006 was a down year, and 2004 was a career year, so his GB rate this year is pretty much average for him.
  15. Jazz
    darn, tie game :(
  16. Jazz
    His k/9 has been declining every year since hes come into the league. His stuff has been diminishing, and he no longer ace starter IMO, but hes getting payed like one.
  17. Jazz
    I don't really believe this. Yeah, maybe he could've gotten slightly more elsewhere, but how is $15M per year a huge discount. That price would put him 10th this year in salary, and while he's certainly a very good player, he's not at the elite level of guys like A-Rod, Bonds, Miggy Cabrera or Pujols. There have been reports that Ramirez would get anywhere from 100 million to one report that said the Angels were ready to offer Ramirez 130 million dollars. He's a big discount on last year's market where players like Soriano and Carlos Lee (both probably worse players and both older) got bigger deals. yup. if aram was an FA this coming year, he would get at least the contract soriano got.
  18. Jazz
    Don't Suck Jason.
  19. Jazz
    I find JJ Hardy very easy to hate for some reason.
  20. Jazz
    wow, fielder mashes one into centerfield, but comes up short. second hard hit ball of the inning.
  21. Jazz
    gwynn makes a sweet catch to end the inning.
  22. Jazz
    blister on his finger. things are going badly for the brewers. edit: i guess it's not a blister, but more serious?
  23. Jazz
    I'm in a rough spot when it comes to making my judgement on Hendry. Because of how well ALL of his acquisitions this year have played, and the fact that he did sign Aram to a huge hometown discount, i'm leaning towards him being kept around for this next regime. If he can get Z locked up, get rid of one of the bums, and make a trade for a starting position player, then ill be completely sold.
  24. Jazz
    Well, the vibe around the situation recently has been pretty positive. Hendry has been quoted as saying he talks to Z's agent at least once a week. And with Z pitching extremely well, and the team winning, it just feels like more good things are just going to come with it......like a Z extension =).
  25. Jazz
    what's his stuff look like nowadays?
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