i'd call it a win situation if he keeps close to those numbers of last year... That's the only scenario in which it is a win. What are the odds on that happening thoughout the life of his contract (or even the majority of the time)? That's a lot of money. Remember Adrian Beltre. I know it's unlikely, but you can't call it a no-win situation. I'd still slightly overpay for for his gold glove (which helps out Aramis too), and even if he doesn't hit for the average he did last year, he's still a hitter with a good approach and 40HR power. Of the 1B that will be available to us, I can't think of one i'd rather have, and if we let him test FA someone will go way above what the Cubs are willing to go even if he reverts.