Amazing_Grace

A couple of things to remember about the first inning. First, teams set up their entire lineup based on the first inning with their best hitters usually hitting 1-5 in some order based on OBP, speed, and power. You aren't facing pitchers and weak hitting shortstops and catchers in the first inning. As a closer, you usually don't face a team's "ideal" lineup. Often times it's a pinch hitter coming in cold off the bench or the worst part of the batting order. Sometimes you might face the heart of a lineup, but not all the time. Second, teams usually hit and see the ball better the second and third time through the batting order. They have (if they're not being coached by Dusty) seen several pitches and had a chance to adjust to the pitcher's speed, breaking pitches, and delivery. The fact Kerry's worst inning is the third and not the first lends credence to this. The third inning is often when you go through the top of or the heart of the order a second time if you assume a few hits/walks in the first 2 innings. The pattern may indicate that hitters are more successful as the game progresses rather than less successful against Wood. The 6th is another troublesome inning (perhaps another time the heart of the order comes up), but his numbers start to look better and better beyond this point because after about the 6th, a struggling starter is often pulled. The 7th and beyond numbers will always be better for any pitcher because they reflect where said pitcher was having a good game and stayed in longer than had they been struggling. To me, it looks like Kerry's pattern suggests he might actually be more well suited to relief than to starting. He comes in for a couple innings with velocity likely higher than the player he's relieving (unless it's Z), and by the time hitters adjust, someone else is in the game. As a closer, of course he goes only one inning usually. I also agree with the poster that mentioned pitching more often might make it easier to find the control sooner into the game. It stands to reason the more often you use a skill, the more likely it will be consistent from one use to another. Kerry should be a good closer if he can handle the workload or a good middle reliever if he can't.

Why is Pagan getting a such a rep for good defense? I haven't really looked at his numbers closely, but I haven't been impressed by him defensively at all. Listening to Hendry, the most important factors in CF defense are speed and range which Pagan has. Personally I don't think those are necessarily the best way to judge, but the comments from Jim sure make it seem like he does.

I hope Pie doesn't end up the opening day CF. Did the Cubs learn nothing from what happened with Patterson. You can't just rush prospects to the majors when it's convenient for the team. Good player development means developing the players then, when they are ready, finding a place for them, or if they are hopelessly blocked by high paid stars that can't be traded, trading them while their value remains high. The likeliest outcome, IMHO, is that Pie would struggle greatly and be sent down to the minors with less trade value than when he started and a complete interruption in his development as he faced competition he wasn't prepared for. If Hendry absolutely HAS to have a defensive minded speedy player in CF, we'd be better served to play Pagan (who has no potential or trade value to ruin). I agree with goony, that if Hendry wants the team to win 85+ games in 2007, he'd better do neither of the above and find a better offensive option in CF, whether that means sucking it up and overpaying in a trade or looking the other way defensively and handing the job to Jones/Soriano.

Nice article. I like the emphasis on giving up fewer walks as a pitching staff, and about not putting too much pressure on young players (after all that's part of how Prior and Wood blew up and Patterson was run off). I'm not thrilled about giving the "green light" to steal bases, but really the only person that that is even relevant to is Soriano, unless of course we bring in a new CF. The main problems with Baker were overworking pitchers and playing horrible players like Perez and Bynum for reasons that defy all logic and rationale. If Piniella can avoid doing those two things, then he'll be worlds better than Baker.

Omniscient Peruvian? Ominous parable? Overweight priest? Obnoxious pric...............? Oops. Original Poster. Sorry :P

I agree with the OP. I think the Cubs are mostly done other than perhaps trading a reliever for prospects or a LH bench player. The fact is the Cubs just don't have a lot of minor league pieces to trade right now other than Pie, who is apparently not going to be dealt. I really hope they don't bring Pie up this season. If they do, I strongly suspect that we'll see Corey Patterson part 2, where a guy is rushed to the bigs too soon and expected to do too much, and then gets benched and yo yoed from AAA to the big leagues, ruining whatever chance he had to develop ML level skills. IMHO, this team hasn't improved enough offensively to win with mediocre and/or inconsistent pitching, which, outside of Z, is what they have. Defense doesn't make 2 beans worth of difference when compared to offense and pitching which is why Izturis is a worthless ballplayer, regardless of what Hendry thinks. He's worse than Alex Gonzalez, and he was awful. I'd honestly rather have kept Neifi to play SS than Izturis, because there's at least a decent chance of Neifi hitting over .250. Neifi is actually about 40 points of OPS better than Izturis over his career. Our best chance of having a productive SS may be for Izturis to get hurt and force the Cubs to play Theriot there. If Hendry wants to win this year, he MUST upgrade either CF or SS offensively. We might be able to hover around .500 and attempt to make a trade midseason, but the team as things stand now will probably finish around .500, unless we're decimated by injuries again which would probably make us worse.

sigh.... This is galactically stupid. Signing AAAA ballplayers to huge contracts rather than playing young guys. It's the same Cubs MO. This is why the Cardinals are consistently good year in and year out and the Cubs aren't. They spend their smaller payroll wisely while the Cubs fritter theirs away. I thought signing Soriano might be a signal for a change of direction, but it wasn't. This is par for the course. This team will not be good until Jim Hendry is fired and the next GM has had 3 or 4 seasons to undo all the damage he did. This whole offseason reminds me of this commercial I saw on TV (I forget what it was for). There was a king and some knights around this table and there was a disheveled wizard giving them advice on how to defeat some dragon and he suggested that they load all the kingdoms gold in the catapults and fling it at the dragon. The king asks the wizard "So, basically, you think we should throw money at the problem." Perfect. Someone tell Hendry to send me $20 million and I'll contribute more than Marquis by not showing up and blocking a prospect for 3 seasons.

Yeah I agree those deals all sounded terrible to me too. I have no idea what the Orioles would trade for Jones that would give any kind of value that the Cubs don't already have plenty of. EDIT: Benching Murton for Floyd is the height of stupidity.

I don't usually post here but I love this site and I always come here first for Cubs news and analysis. I wanted to post this link from an Orioles message board that suggests a trade with the O's is likely. My brother is an O's fan and he says that their insider "BB" aka Big Bird is an O's insider posts on there and has been right about several things in the past. The O's need a LFer so Jones might be a possibility but I don't really know who the O's would send the Cubs (Benson maybe). Here's the link: http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=40991 It's basically a message board rumor so take it for what it's worth, but the O's have been after an upgrade in LF this offseason.