TruffleShuffle
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Everything posted by TruffleShuffle
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a baseball team managed by ned yost is one game from reaching an LCS.
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Nope. He's holding down his sweatshirt so to keep his gut under wraps. He knows the really fat guy has it hanging out and that comparatively, he's much more skinny. But he's still soft and flabby under those two layers and he is more reserved, because if he keeps it hidden he has a chance to hook up with somebody around him. i have a hard time imagining how that fat guy's sweatshirt covers up his gut, even under normal circumstances. obviously it's raised up because his arms are up, but i feel like even when he's walking around there has to be some flab hanging out the bottom.
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http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view/70459/don-t-applause-for-that-o.gif
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cardinals 10 runs, dodgers 9 runs. cardinals 1 left on base, dodgers 10 left on base. :x
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10 runs and 0 LOB. [expletive] amazing, those cards.
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nice guys finish first apparently.
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http://i.imgur.com/7hAL5fv.gif Australia is the North Dakota of continents. no, that is antarctica.
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http://i.imgur.com/7hAL5fv.gif
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javi baez deep concern and probably giving hope up thread
TruffleShuffle replied to treebird's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
jim abbott had two arms. -
javi baez deep concern and probably giving hope up thread
TruffleShuffle replied to treebird's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
jim abbott had 24 plate appearances, why even bring that up? -
i like how you and kyle jump on the 35 HR in 500 AB (which is probably high by like 3 or 5 HR) but don't give a [expletive] about the .250 babip i gave him. anyway, i am sure we will not be lucky enough to have kyle quit nsbb within the next 3 years, so we will just have to settle for laughing at him when bryant's obp is far above the league average.
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he hit 43 home runs as a 22 year old in his first crack at the advanced minor leagues (howard hit 46 in the same stage of his minor league career, but was 2 years older). adjusting for for diminished offensive environment, it's quite reasonable to expect that bryant in his prime will be among the league leaders in home runs, just as howard was during his prime. You are mistaking "hope" and "expect." The offensive environment is part of the reason we expect Bryant's BA to be fairly low. You're high-end, survivorship bias comp still just had a .265 career average at a time when that was the roughly the MLB average, which is down to .250 now. howard's batting average in his prime was not league average. his career average is .265, but i think we can probably hope that bryant won't blow out his achilles at age 30 and then become a terrible hitter who has no idea how to hit same-side pitching.
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maybe he covered up for a child molester. http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2012/07/23/blogs/23statue_1/23statue_1-blog480.jpg
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he hit 43 home runs as a 22 year old in his first crack at the advanced minor leagues (howard hit 46 in the same stage of his minor league career, but was 2 years older). adjusting for for diminished offensive environment, it's quite reasonable to expect that bryant in his prime will be among the league leaders in home runs, just as howard was during his prime.
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his high end comp is late 1920s babe ruth.
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Bryant's not going to be hitting 35 HRs per 500 ABs. Giancarlo Stanton himself only averages 33.6 per 500 ABs. And while I like Bryant and he *can* become Stanton, I don't think that should be the median projection. he's also not going to have a .250 babip and probably won't strike out like mark reynolds. Reynolds MLB k% this year was .4% lower than Bryant's at AAA and his career k% is only 3.3% higher than Bryant's % in AAA this year. shall we set the over/under on bryant strikeouts per year at 200? i'll parlay that under bet with an over on the .325 obp and start planning my retirement at 55.
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i just don't understand the assumption that he's not going to hit for average. if you looked purely at ryan howard's K rates in the minors you'd assume he wouldn't hit for average, but lo and behold when he was in his prime he was hitting in the .270 to .300 range with truckloads of walks and almost 50 home runs a season. and bryant could quite conceivably have a better hit tool than howard. i really don't see much way that bryant settles into a rob deer career path. maybe he'll be under .325 obp, but i think that would happen if he just whiffs abysmally like baez did this year, and never makes enough contact to take advantage of his power.
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Bryant's not going to be hitting 35 HRs per 500 ABs. Giancarlo Stanton himself only averages 33.6 per 500 ABs. And while I like Bryant and he *can* become Stanton, I don't think that should be the median projection. he's also not going to have a .250 babip and probably won't strike out like mark reynolds.
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say bryant hits .220 in 500 at bats. if we assume a massive K-rate like 35%, then he's striking out 167 times. but he also hits like 35 home runs. so his BABIP would be (110 - 35)/(500 - 167 - 35), or .252. now give him 80 walks (which would be a walk rate of 13.7%, which is slightly lower than his walk rate in the minor leagues this year. that gives him an OBP of .327. and that's with a rob deer-esque hit tool and a horrible BABIP. if you want to compare him to a guy who has a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, but a lot of walks and home runs, ryan howard had a .376 OBP in what would be considered his peak years. bottom line, it's really hard for a guy mashing 40 home runs a year and walking a lot to have an OBP near the league average.
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It's Opening Day - Predict Our Win Total
TruffleShuffle replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
this was not an accurate prediction. -
if .325 is the over/under on kris bryant's OBP in the major leagues, i'm putting my life savings on the over.
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i bet some some money on washington when their WS odds were undervalued (like 15:1), so go nationals.
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2014-15 International Free Agency Thread
TruffleShuffle replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
lol -
I'd honestly prefer a better player in the draft at this point. It's highly unlikely that the player the Cubs realistically target wherever they end up drafting will be picked by the one or two teams that finished a game or two worse than then.
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One more win would be nice, to avoid 90 losses.