HoopsCubs

Here's some information I just received from a trusted source: the Cubs and the Blue Jays have had a preliminary discussion on a deal that would send Jeff Samardzija and Darwin Barney to Toronto for "high end pitching prospects." My understanding is that Toronto's management feels that acquiring the right-handed hardthrower and the Gold Glove infielder, and inserting them into their nucleus of Dickey, Buehrle, Happ, Encarnacion, Bautista and Reyes strengthens their team's win now approach for the next 2 years. The prospects' names were not provided to me, so I'll let you farm system wizards figure out if Toronto has anybody that would qualify as "high end" and someone they might be looking to trade for a short term gain.

Some additional data I observed on Maybin's home/away splits in 2011 and 2012, his 2 most active seasons courtesy of baseball-reference.com: 2011 (average/OBP/SLG/OPS) Home: .231 / .294 / .324 / .618 Away: .294 / .349 / .457 / .806 2012 (average/OBP/SLG/OPS) Home: .268 / .346 / .389 / .735 Away: .216 / .264 / .308 / .572 His OPS was 188 points lower at home in 2011, but it was 163 points higher at home in 2012. I still contend he's too inconsistent for a $20M investment.

TT: Can't argue with your numbers. Just feel there is a better way to spend $20M. What do they with the rotation will be most intriguing. I think they have convinced themselves that they will have enough hitting in 2015.

Davell: if 2014 is just another year for the kids to get seasoned for the big run starting in 2015, then I think the Cubs should move Schierholtz this offseason. He might net them someone useful 2 years down the line.

TT: I would stay away if it was my call. He has a career OBP of less than .315 and a career OPS of less than .690, and as you pointed out has $20M coming his way over the next 3 years. I'll take Junior Lake at less than $2M over the next 3 seasons, who I believe has a decent shot of keeping his OPS above .720.

Many scouts seem to be impressed with East Carolina pitcher, Jeff Hoffman. Could he fall to #4? The other college pitcher, who has intrigued many is Tyler Beede from Vanderbilt (former first round pick). But he seems to be experiencing control issues these days - maybe he sorts those out by Spring. I think there is some merit in trading Castillo for pitching and signing Salty. I'd prefer if the Cubs not overpay for McCann.

TT: The posting fee would not count against the payroll, so it won't be part of the luxury tax calculation. But internally speaking, it would have to count against the Baseball Operations budget. Let's assume the Cubs Baseball Ops total budget for 2014 is $150M - that includes payroll for the 40 man roster, funding minor league ops like scouting and player development, coaches and executive salaries, training centers, etc... Let's assume Mr. Epstein has calculated that he has already spent $90M on the guaranteed contracts plus all the other stuff, and can spend up to $60M more on the 40 man roster. So, he adds up the $60M posting fee plus Tanaka's $12M salary (e.g. 6 years $72M) plus $30M in additional moves he wants to make for the 2014 team. So, he needs $102M, but only has $60M to spend. What does he do? He goes to Mr. Ricketts and says, "boss, I need to borrow $42M." Ricketts might say, "Sure, but I will have to lower your future budget by $7-8M per year over the next 6 years to pay for it." Or, he might say, "I'll give you $24M, but you need to trade $18M in salaries to fund the rest." Theo will have to consider his options carefully. From my vantage point, I think the Cubs should got for it! With the team set to have fairly cheap offensive productivity over the next few years, investing in difference-making pitching seems like a no-brainer. Good to see you, Hoops! I worded that poorly, as I think we're all in agreement that the posting fee has to come from somewhere in the Baseball Ops budget, be it "payroll" or some other bucket. What I should have clarified is that my confusion is about the ability to amortize even a part of that posting fee. Because the posting fee is due immediately, and because there's so much uncertainty around the moneys available because of renovations, debt service, etc, knowing that they can pull from future years as part of posting fee would make a huge difference. My understanding is that they can pull some - not a lot. But if the Sherman article is true about the player getting to pick one of the top 2 or 3 bids, then the point is moot. I don't see Tanaka picking the Cubs in that circumstance. They're going to have to draft an ace or trade for one.

Sherman's full article here: http://nypost.com/2013/10/26/changes-coming-to-mlb-bids-for-japan-players/

That seems like MLB slowly forcing its way out of the posting system. If the rumors around Darvish are true, that could've cost his Japanese team ~40M if he wanted to negotiate with a team other than the Rangers, and you'd almost have to assume the player would choose the non-winning bid in all these situations seeing how Darvish and Matsuzaka got less than market value due to the posting fee being (somewhat) figured into the contract value while none of that money was going to the player. Definitely hard to see Tanaka picking the Cubs, if he has a chance to sign with LA, New York or Boston.

TT: The posting fee would not count against the payroll, so it won't be part of the luxury tax calculation. But internally speaking, it would have to count against the Baseball Operations budget. Let's assume the Cubs Baseball Ops total budget for 2014 is $150M - that includes payroll for the 40 man roster, funding minor league ops like scouting and player development, coaches and executive salaries, training centers, etc... Let's assume Mr. Epstein has calculated that he has already spent $90M on the guaranteed contracts plus all the other stuff, and can spend up to $60M more on the 40 man roster. So, he adds up the $60M posting fee plus Tanaka's $12M salary (e.g. 6 years $72M) plus $30M in additional moves he wants to make for the 2014 team. So, he needs $102M, but only has $60M to spend. What does he do? He goes to Mr. Ricketts and says, "boss, I need to borrow $42M." Ricketts might say, "Sure, but I will have to lower your future budget by $7-8M per year over the next 6 years to pay for it." Or, he might say, "I'll give you $24M, but you need to trade $18M in salaries to fund the rest." Theo will have to consider his options carefully. From my vantage point, I think the Cubs should got for it! With the team set to have fairly cheap offensive productivity over the next few years, investing in difference-making pitching seems like a no-brainer. That all makes sense, but I think the reason we're wondering where the money would come from is the restrictive purchase agreement they have to abide by and the fact that they apparently can't operate at a loss at any given moment of the entire year. Each team should see an additional $20M in revenue sharing this offseason from MLB. That will help to a certain extent. But if the restrictive purchase agreement as you say has no leeway at all, then the Cubs will have to explore a 1:1 scenario with the business operations side, i.e., for every $1 spent on baseball operations above the given budget, $1 must be saved on the BusOps side (Crane Kenney's head will explode!). TT's idea of selling some players off now for prospects combined with some reconciliation between BaseOps and BusOps seems plausible.

TT: The posting fee would not count against the payroll, so it won't be part of the luxury tax calculation. But internally speaking, it would have to count against the Baseball Operations budget. Let's assume the Cubs Baseball Ops total budget for 2014 is $150M - that includes payroll for the 40 man roster, funding minor league ops like scouting and player development, coaches and executive salaries, training centers, etc... Let's assume Mr. Epstein has calculated that he has already spent $90M on the guaranteed contracts plus all the other stuff, and can spend up to $60M more on the 40 man roster. So, he adds up the $60M posting fee plus Tanaka's $12M salary (e.g. 6 years $72M) plus $30M in additional moves he wants to make for the 2014 team. So, he needs $102M, but only has $60M to spend. What does he do? He goes to Mr. Ricketts and says, "boss, I need to borrow $42M." Ricketts might say, "Sure, but I will have to lower your future budget by $7-8M per year over the next 6 years to pay for it." Or, he might say, "I'll give you $24M, but you need to trade $18M in salaries to fund the rest." Theo will have to consider his options carefully. From my vantage point, I think the Cubs should got for it! With the team set to have fairly cheap offensive productivity over the next few years, investing in difference-making pitching seems like a no-brainer.

Meph, 16 days ago you accused me and/or my source of fabricating a story. You should know this: I will continue to post rumors from sources, who I believe to be credible based on my history with them regardless of how unreasonable or unrealistic you think the trade scenarios are. I am not in the business of fabrication. I am always very clear on this board differentiating between deals I've heard vs. deals I am suggesting. And considering that Bruce Miles (who I think we can all agree has an absolute stellar reputation for facts in addition to being very generous with his time here), has chimed in twice in the last 7 days that there may have been/may be some discussions going on, at least now I feel good for my source, who you unfairly through under the bus. The information that the 2 teams had or are having discussions was not only credible, it was real and confirmed regardless of what your stamp of approval may or may not think.

Link from Boston Herald: http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view.bg?articleid=1071967&srvc=home&position=1

Latest from my source: developing story out of Boston - Curt Schilling may be out for the season due to a serious shoulder problem. Boston may be in the market for a starting pitcher. While Ken Rosenthal suggested yesterday that the Cubs were not interested in Crisp because he would block Pie and Colvin, my source thinks the Cubs real reluctance was taking on Crisp's contract. However, based on new circumstances, there may be an opportunity for the Cubs to offset Crisp's salary in 2008 by trading an equal salary like Ryan Dempster's or Jason Marquis in addition to a prospect. All still rumor phase, but intriguing. Hoops

My source on this Crisp rumor just heard from his Boston contact that the Red Sox re-signed Bobby Kielty this evening in "anticipation of imminently moving" Coco Crisp. When I asked if "imminently" is used the same way as the media has used it to describe Johan Santana and Erik Bedard stories he laughed. The Cubs are still believed to be in this, although he heard tonight that there are 2 other teams involved (1 from each league). He was guessing Texas and St. Louis.

If I read it correctly, that poster is suggesting the Cubs would get Roberts and Sherill.

Is that because you are convinced that the weak hitting Felix Pie will be in the everyday line-up as well?

I am neither an insider or the "OG" as you call it. Mr. Miles is both of those and much, much more. So, anything he says, would and should trump my information a thousand times over. I just happen to be someone, like many of you I'm sure, who knows different people in many different walks of life. You build relationships and you hear things.

Well, I trust the guy, who told me, because he's the same person who told me that the Cubs would sign Wade Miller a few years back, and the same person, who told me in December that one other team had outbid the Cubs for Fukudome. So, I am 100% certain he's not fabricating that the two teams have discussed Crisp, and I am 100% certain I am not fabricating anything he told me.

Just heard from an East Coast source that since the Red Sox will not be sending a CF to Minnesota, they are again actively (but silently) shopping Coco Crisp. The source said the Cubs have shown "solid" interest in acquiring Crisp, but doesn't know what other teams are involved. Jim Hendry has supposedly offered some of his "inventory" of players. The players the Red Sox seem to be targeting, according to the source, are Wuertz, Murton and a starting pitcher (I asked if that meant a prospect or a guy like Marshall/Hart/Gallagher or perhaps a Dempster/Marquis type, but the source said no specific pitcher's name was mentioned to him). Crisp makes $11M over the next 2 years and there is a team option of $8M in 2010. I'm not sure if he's worth 3 players like Wuertz, Murton and Marshall, but I am sure there are some players in the Cubs system that could make sense to trade. I'll follow this the next few days to see if it's potential or just talk. Hoops

I was thinking about 3 teams: Cubs, Phillies, Rockies.

I know it's against the religion of this board to say anything positive about Andy MacPhail, but perhaps this Bedard thing with Seattle has been drawn out because the Orioles wanted to see what the Twins got for Santana. My thinking is that MacPhail was tipped off by somebody in the league office over the weekend that the Santana trade would be going down soon, so he decided to wait it out. I think we'll see Bedard dealt in the next 48 hours. My gut says Seattle too, but I wouldn't rule out a NL contender seeing as the Mets just improved themselves.

UPDATED January 25, 2008 With the news of Jon Lieber signing for $3.5M, and Michael Wuertz signing for $860K, here's the payroll situation: $16M Carlos Zambrano $14M Alfonso Soriano $13M Derrek Lee $15M Aramis Ramirez $8M Ted Lilly $5.833M Ryan Dempster (Free agent after 2008 season) $6.375M Jason Marquis $4.75M Mark DeRosa $4.5M Bob Howry (Free agent after 2008 season) $4.133M Scott Eyre-PLAYER OPTION (Free agent after 2008 season) $3.175M Henry Blanco $1.2M Darryl Ward $2.0M CASH sent to Detroit in Jacque Jones trade $4.2M Kerry Wood $12M Kosuke Fukudome $800K Neal Cotts $860K Michael Wuertz $3.5M Jon Lieber To-date, the Cubs have 17 players under contract with an obligation of $119.3M. Taking it one step further: assuming the following 7 signings (all league minimum): $0.415M Ryan Theriot $0.415M Felix Pie $0.415M Geovany Soto $0.415M Matt Murton $0.415M Rich Hill $0.415M Carlos Marmol $0.415M Kevin Hart That's another $2.9M. So, the Cubs would now have 24 players at $122.2M. Depending on payroll (either $120M as reported by Mr. Miles or $125M as reported by Mr. Levine), the Cubs should have somewhere between needing to shed $2.2M and an opportunity to spend $2.8M. With extra pitchers like Marshall, Lahey and Pignatiello still in the running for a role, it seems apparent the Cubs will pull out all stops to move an arm or two (Marshall, Marquis and Cotts seem like the top 2 to go). On the position player side, it appears the Cubs still need to make up their mind on what to do with the following: - back-up middle infielder (Cedeno, Patterson, Fontenot are internal options; Theriot could be this player if the Cubs acquire a SS; DeRosa could be this player if the Cubs acquire a 2B) - centerfielder (right-handed hitting if Pie starts or if Fuld starts/Pie is dealt, or left-handed hitting). Hoops

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cs-071105rogers,1,60753.column Thinking back to what Phil Rogers was speculating in November: "If the Cubs signed him [Fukudome], they might be in position to use Felix Pie in a significant trade, possibly with San Diego for shortstop Khalil Greene." I think there already is a Greene thread about he and the Padres not reaching terms on a long term deal. He does have 2 years left before free agency. Maybe San Diego moves him now for Pie and something else. Greene will probably make $11M in the next 2 seasons.

Q: What would it take to pry Rafael Furcal away from LA? A: I think it would take 2 things (assuming they're going with an in-house replacement at SS): - take Juan Pierre off their hands - give them back a 3B If Crede can show he's healthy, I'd still like to see a deal where the Dodgers give Pierre, Furcal and some cash to the Sox for Crede, and then the Sox flip either Cabrera or Furcal to the Cubs for prospects.