HoopsCubs

http://www.dailyherald.com/sports/sportsstory.asp?id=98850 quote from Hendry today in Bruce Miles' column in the Daily Herald: "We have every intention of trying to sign Ryan to a multi-year deal. He'll be a priority as the off-season approaches."

As long as his salary is no more than $3M, and the duration of contract is 1 year, this should be a no brainer move for the Cubs - Hendry and Baker like Lofton, and he likes them.

Another way to have the conversation on transactions is to do a detailed post mortem of the season - game by game, week by week, whatever suits you. What are the key factors that prevented this club from achieving the goal of reaching the post-season? One method of post mortem is to select 8 categories and than assign a percentage to each (adding up to 100). In theory, the money should flow to the highest % items. So, take a swag at it. Here are 8 categories I quickly thought of (there are probably several more). Be honest and be critical. Don't just assign 12% to each and say we need to improve every area. Take a stand. Focus on 1 or 2 or 3 that really stand out as difference makers. We are 77-79 today because: Unsettled Closer Situation first 6 weeks Poor Bullpen (other than closer, i.e., setup men and specialists) Low OBP Bad Defense Lack of Situational Hitting Poor Managing/Strategy Too Many Key Injuries GM not properly filling obvious holes/needs Some of these are inter-related, of course, but try it out. Hoops

I'm guessing 2 years/$10M with a vesting 3rd year option for $7M can get it done. I think Ryan wants to stay here.

Goony, Would Chipper really be willing to play LF again? He played LF full time in '02 and '03, but seemed to complain a lot about it if memory serves correct. The Braves moved him back to 3B a third of the way through '04, and he's been there ever since. I'd love to get him and Marcus Giles, but something tells me he won't be happy in the outfield. Hoops

What would we get back if we traded Walker or Hairston?

O's could be a partner for Florida - that's a good call on your part. Houston - I don't know. From my calculations, they have $63M committed to just 4 players next year: $20.0M to Bagwell, $17.5M to Pettitte, $14.5M to Berkman and $11.0M to Oswalt. Their total payroll in 2005 was $77M. Assuming McLane raises it to $85M - that still only leaves them $22M for 21 players. And Delgado or a re-signed Clemens would eat most of that, and Lidge and Ensberg are arbitration eligible. Unless the owner is planning on a huge expansion in payroll or they have plans to dump Bagwell or Pettitte, I don't see how Houston could be active in the offseason. Of course, they lost Kent and Beltran, and still look playoff bound, so who am I to criticize them. Hoops

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/sports/baseball/12708452.htm Remember the Burnett and Lowell rumours in the summer - Baltimore, Boston and the White Sox were somewhat interested? Well, this looks like a similar attempt by the Marlins purely for financial reasons. Could you see the Yankees taking on both and then flipping Lowell over to the Dodgers? Could you see Boston doing the same thing or perhaps keeping both players, and moving Youkilis? Could the Cubs get involved and flip Lowell and Derrek Lee to somebody? A lot of analysts have been predicting that this offseason is going to have some blockbuster trades: Manny, Griffey, Soriano, etc... well, Delgado would be another big name. Is that stove burning yet? Hoops

Really, UK? I figure Hunsicker would want to stay as far away from Baltimore as possible since they have a meddlesome owner. I thought that is what partly drove Hunsaker away from Houston. Or was it that Drayton McLane was too cheap? I'd like to see him in BAL though, as I think he would do a good job there. Ted, I think Gerry Hunsicker will land up in your neck of the woods - Philadelphia. Hoops

Dunn.

Yeah, I thought of that too. Preston Wilson and Jacque Jones are 2 guys Hendry really likes. I've got no problem with Wilson as long as we get a Giles, Dunn, Floyd type player in RF. I really dislike Jones.

By the way, in case anybody had forgotten, Paul Sullivan reminded us in today's Chicago Tribune: "[Lofton] shows no signs of slowing down and is a favorite of Baker and Hendry."

He was born in East Chicago, Indiana. Philly does not have as much money to spend as the Cubs. With Abreu, Thome, Lieberthal (option vested for 06), Burrell, Rollins, Lieber and Wolf, they have a ton of money already committed for 2006. The only significant cash coming off the books is Wagner and Bell. I think Philly, moreso than the Cubs, it as a crossroads. If they do not make the playoffs this year, they could be in for a major overhaul, and they have to spend big on pitching this offseason. To back up Goony's point, the Phillies are already committed to 11 players and $74M in 2006 (Abreu, Thome, Lieberthal, Burrell, Wolf, Lieber, Bell, Rollins, Lidle, Cormier, Perez). Their payroll was $95M this year, so they do have $21M to spend on 14 players. But here's what's tough: Padilla and Myers are arbitration eligible, so a decision will be require there. Add to that, Wagner, Urbina and Lofton - 3 important players are free agents as well. The Phillies really need to addresss their pitching this offseason, and will probably have to jettison one contract to do it. They should really pay half and move Thome to the AL. If they can't, Burrell could be available (to Hendry). Long and short, the Phillies are not in the best situation. If they want to, the Cubs could easily pry Lofton away from them during free agency. Hoops

If the Cubs did go Murton/Lofton for LF/CF, regardless of who they bring in to play RF, I think the Cubs would try to get more power from the infield, which leads me to believe they would trade Walker and a decent pitcher to Texas for Soriano. And if we take CubfaninCa's idea for acquiring Cliff Floyd, this is the lineup I could see: Lofton Murton Lee Floyd Ramirez Soriano Barrett Cedeno I'm not optimistic the Cubs will keep Garciaparra, although under the right financial circumstances, it is do-able if they choose to. Hoops

My closest source and I discussed Lofton a week ago - the idea has some merit, especially a 1-year deal. Hairston has been supposedly better in the 2nd half in terms of his relationship to Baker - enough to warrant at least a utility role consideration from what I understand. As for Pie, everyone has an opinion on him - I wouldn't be surprised if the Pie talk was just to stimulate more interest in Corey. Even though Patterson's trade value is low, his upside is tremendous if he can ever put it together (like 1st half 2003) - if teams know he's on the block, there may be more interest (of course, there'll be a bunch of low-balling offers too, but maybe one or two offers could be compelling). Corey could really help Hendry out by playing great these last 12 games.

Vance, With respect to getting "a big bat in right," although he's not a big blip on the conventional wisdom radar since he's not a free agent, I could envision the Cubs making an offer to Washington this off-season for Jose Guillen. From what I have read in some Washington papers lately, the guy is a moody brooder, who has had private run-ins with Frank Robinson and team leader Brian Schneider this season, and has made some of the young guys very uncomfortable. Despite being owed a very fair $4M in 2006, the Nationals may feel trading him for young pitching (they have no answers right now after Livan, Loiaza and Patterson) could be the way to go. I'm sure Dusty could handle him. Hoops

I still think Hendry will sign Kenny Lofton to a 1-year incentive-laden deal to play CF and lead-off. That will give Felix Pie another season in the minors - perhaps he'll be a 2nd half call-up. With the Lofton signing, I also think Hendry will keep Hairston as a utility player, who can start in CF against tough lefties. I think many in the Cubs brass still believe that for 2006 Lofton will come very close to duplicating his .388 OBP from this year and his .381 OBP in the 2nd half of 2003. Supposedly, with the exception of Sosa and Alou, his teammates loved him in 2003.

Branyan bats left, throws right, and has started 31 games at 1B and 193 at 3B.

From ESPN Insider Article by Gammons: If the Marlins do not make the playoffs, they will lose $20 million-$30 million, likely cannot get a ballpark built and will have to try to trade Carlos Delgado to the Mets before Omar Minaya, the Mets' GM, starts tinkering with acquiring Manny Ramirez. If the Mets continue to dive and Carlos Beltran gets booed right on into October, it will be interesting to see the Mets' response if and when the Red Sox reiterate the offer they made in July of Ramirez for Beltran. It would save New York close to $30 million. Also of note: • Nomar Garciaparra might now be willing to move positions to take some pressure off his legs. Second and third base seem out because of his elongated arm action and angle, but center or left field would seem very possible. The Cubs plan to put Felix Pie in center field next season, but if they could sign Rafael Furcal (why shouldn't he want more than Jimmy Rollins?) and put Ronny Cedeno at second base, Nomar would seem to make a perfect fit in left field. Not that the Cubs have discussed it. Just a thought. Link: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=2158786 By the way, doesn't it seem like every analyst or beat guy (local or national) is convinced that the Cubs do not have Todd Walker in their plans for 2006?

From ESPN Insider Article by Gammons: If the Marlins do not make the playoffs, they will lose $20 million-$30 million, likely cannot get a ballpark built and will have to try to trade Carlos Delgado to the Mets before Omar Minaya, the Mets' GM, starts tinkering with acquiring Manny Ramirez. If the Mets continue to dive and Carlos Beltran gets booed right on into October, it will be interesting to see the Mets' response if and when the Red Sox reiterate the offer they made in July of Ramirez for Beltran. It would save New York close to $30 million. Also of note: • Nomar Garciaparra might now be willing to move positions to take some pressure off his legs. Second and third base seem out because of his elongated arm action and angle, but center or left field would seem very possible. The Cubs plan to put Felix Pie in center field next season, but if they could sign Rafael Furcal (why shouldn't he want more than Jimmy Rollins?) and put Ronny Cedeno at second base, Nomar would seem to make a perfect fit in left field. Not that the Cubs have discussed it. Just a thought. Link: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=2158786 I will say this about Garciaparra: he had a .952 OPS in August and has an .895 OPS so far through September. Given our offensive woes, those are really good numbers, and if there was some equitable way to keep him in a Cub uniform, and still address real holes like lead-off, corner outfield power, I'm all for it. Hoops

Read this on the flight home this morning from Fort Lauderdale. http://www.usatoday.com/sports/bbw/columnist/nightengale/2005-09-14-majors_x.htm Couple of things caught my eye: (1) "The Red Sox plan to shop outfielder Manny Ramirez this winter, and have talked about sending Ramirez to the Mets for Carlos Beltran." (2) In talking about manager merry-go-round: "Dusty Baker, Cubs •Survival odds: 95% No, Baker isn't going to Los Angeles. Or Arizona. Or Tibet. Baker is staying in Chicago for the final season of his contract, and then, it may be his choice to see where he wants to go in 2006. If the Cubs win next season, he can write his own contract. •Prediction: Baker stays in Chicago one more year, then heads to the Mariners." Speaking of Fort Lauderdale, by the way, perhaps someone can find the actual link, but in the Fort Lauderdale Sun Sentinel this morning, I read that the Marlin president denied Peter Gammons' story that Florida would trade Carlos Delgado if they failed to make the playoffs (i.e. failed to get playoff revenue). Gammons further wrote that Florida would look to trade Delgado to the Mets, before New York could pull off a Manny Ramirez trade. Speaking of trades, Steve Phillips of ESPN (formerly Met GM) was on Mike and Mike in the Morning a few days agao, and repeated on several occasions that he expects to see a lot of trades (and big names) this offseason due to the poor free agent class. Hoops

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/articles/0915dbside0915.html Luis Gonzalez thinks he might be shopped (he does have 10/5 veto rights).

Juan Encarnacion is ranked 10th best free agent??!! Now, if that isn't a stinging indictment of how weak this free agent class is, then I don't know what is.

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/articles/0913tracy0913.html It's a registered site, but I think there are ways to get to the link. "There is such a logjam, the Diamondbacks may consider a trade, perhaps involving Quentin or, to a lesser extent, Gonzalez or Glaus. And yes, it may come down to Tracy, who is arguably the best hitter in the entire organization." I know Tim and others are very bullish on Carlos Quentin's upside, so this article caught my eye. I know others here like Chad Tracy very much too. If I'm interpreting correctly, basically, the D-Backs have Troy Glaus, Shawn Green, Luis Gonzalez, Tracy, Tony Clark (just signed 2 year extension) and Quentin to play 5 positions - LF, CF, RF, 1B and 3B. 6 guys, 5 positions - one of them looks like he'll be dealt. Quentin to the Cubs? Please remind me what it would take. Hoops

Possible? Yes. Probable? No. Having said that, I am still watching our games as actively as April/May because I too believe these guys are going to play in September like that '03 team did, and make things very, very interesting for the Astros in that 4-game season ending series. Per my quick calculations, the Cubs need to go 17-3 in these last 20 to get to 87-75, and only one of those 3 losses can be to Houston. Meanwhile, the Mets and Nationals need to play tough against the Marlins.