HoopsCubs

I too prefer Jason Schmidt over Barry Zito. I think Schmidt could be enticed with a 3 year guaranteed, 4th year auto vest contract. Zito will probably accept no less than a 5 year deal, and will probably get a 6 year deal. I think it's fair to say (based on my sources and observations) that Jim Hendry and Scott Boras have a very good relationship. It's the owner on the other side of town that can't stand Boras. Boras clients don't scare Hendry away. What scares Hendry (Derrek Lee probably being the exception) is anyone wanting more than a 4 year deal, whether he's a Boras client or not.

http://www.dailynews.com/sports/ci_4029444 "John Smoltz, Greg Maddux, Livan Hernandez, Carlos Zambrano, Barry Zito and Dontrelle Willis are the starters who supposedly will be made available prior to the July 31 trading deadline." Who knew? I think it's the first time, I have seen Carlos' name in any paper w.r.t. to trade bait.

If he's such a stud, why did Williams trade for Vazquez and block McCarthy from the starting rotation? Not only for this season but unless he moves one of his starting five, next year as well. Phil Rogers has a comment in today's Tribune suggesting again that Kenny Williams should trade Garcia, Garland or Vazquez plus a prospect to Atlanta for Andruw Jones. By the way, one other interesting point Rogers made regarding Andruw Jones: at some point in August, he will qualify for 10-5 rights.

Is is possible that Piniella could also be waiting for his old boss Pat Gillick to give him a call about taking the Phillies job? I'm assuming, of course, that Gillick will fire Charlie Manuel, which is not a slam-dunk assumption at this point, though many writers think he'll go along with Dusty shortly after the break.

My guess would be LA and SD are looking at Maddux - LA first with the Ned Colletti tie. Having said that, my feeling still is that Maddux wants to stay in Chicago, and I could see Hendry giving him a 1-year extension.

One important angle to consider: does Carlos want to be here after 2007? The negotiation will be tough and tense, but my strong sense is that there will be enough money available in the budget to make him happy, and an agreeable amount of years (5 is my guess) to get it done. But unlike Wood and Lee, who my sources felt absolutely wanted to remain in Cub uniforms in the offseason leading up to their walk years, I don't think anyone has a good indication one way or another what Carlos wants. My fear would be that he wants to go elsewhere not for money reasons, but because he feels that he has nothing to show for his excellent body of work in the last 4/5 years in terms of post-season team success and consistent winning teams. To me, that is Hendry's biggest challenge: convincing Carlos that this club has the strategy and financial where-with-all to be consistent winners. That's a tough sell to an uber-emotional guy like Carlos.

It's a massive stretch to call this a waste of payroll a la Rusch or Neifi. Like you said, it's a million dollars...pretty much chump change for these teams. It's a gamble, but hey, it's not big loss. Trying to prop it up like it's some kind of disaster is ridiculous. The biggest problem is that Hendry only made a few stopgap moves in the offseason instead of really stepping things up...had he done those big moves, the Miller deal would have looked fantastic. But even so, it's nowhere near being a waste like Neifi. I'd take Neifi being used correctly for 2.5 than waste 1 million on a guy that won't pitch for you. Then I'm glad you're not running this team. If it's Cuse vs. Mojo vs. Hendry, then it's absolutely no contest. Orangeman all the way!

We talked about Jones briefly in another thread or two, but I think he deserves another go-around now that we're in July. There have been plenty of reports from national papers indicating the Braves are shopping him. 2 recent examples: http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/justice/4022654.html http://www.suntimes.com/output/sox/cst-spt-sox03.html He's still owed ~$6.5M in the second half of 2006, and $13.5M in 2007. He will be 30 next year. His 2006 OPS of ~.850 is right at his career average. Through a direct trade or 3-way deal, is it worth Hendry getting him? Would it be a better investment than paying Carlos Lee 5 years nd $75M? What would Atlanta require for him? What would be a fair set of Cub players/prospects? Interested to hear what people think.

Why does it matter? He helps them this year and then is a free agent. We aren't competing for the division this year, so who wins it shouldn't matter one iota. If we were trading someone who could help them long term, then that might be a valid argument. As it is, the trade would likely come back to haunt them more than us as Maddux helps them in a year that we aren't going anywhere while whoever we get could be a useful cog in the future. I doubt we get Broadway and Anderson. Probably one, not both. There's a reason I didn't include Howry, Eyre, and Dempster. They all could be a part of the team next year since they are under contract. However, if the White Sox offered a nice package for one of them, I have no problem trading with an AL team. Trading with the White Sox is no different than trading with the Rangers. I have probably been one of the biggest Dempster proponents I know, but his nightmarish season has even convinced me that if anyone comes along wanting him (and takes most of the $10M he's due in 2007 and 2008), then Hendry should deal him. I don't see any reason to trade Eyre -he'll be an important piece for next season. Howry has been a nice addition, and my preference would be to keep him too, but if I were Hendry I'd be open to dealing him if I got back a nice package of prospects.

I don't think that's likely. Ellis recently came off the DL and he's probably a better hitter as well as a better fielder. There's also the fact that Ellis is under contract for $3.5M in 2007.

To me, it's a no brainer. As a big market club, I'd sign him for another season at a low base/high incentive plan. The Cubs have invested in his rehab - it's worth it for 1 more year to see if they can get a return. Over the 3 year period of 2001-2003, he averaged 15 wins and 8 losses - it's worth the risk to see if we can get that back when healthy. Just my opinion.

Walt Jocketty is looking for pitching based on a radio report I heard today from Ken Rosenthal. I wonder if St. Louis gets involved here.

It's not a matter of whether the trib can afford it. It's a matter of whether or not the Cubs can field a good enough team with that big of a chunk given to somebody who isn't all that special. The White Sox didn't win much with a very cheap Carlos Lee. The Brewers haven't won anything despite having an affordable Lee and possibly more talent than the Cubs have had. Hendry has not shown any ability to efficiently manage his funds, which tells me he wouldn't be able to fill out the roster properly if he spends $12m on Lee. If Jim dedicated 5 or 6 roster spots to young guys who make nothing but can give you the same thing that Neifi, Rusch and others give you (if not more), then overpaying for a solid but far from spectaculiar Carlos Lee may not be a bad idea. But I don't see that happening. Goony, Would you give Alfonso Soriano 5 years and $50M?

At this point, I'm not advocating one way or another whether the Cubs should re-sign him or not. I will merely share 5 observations: (1) Other than Pierre (age 29), the only CFs, who are under age 35 and appear to be free agents after this season are Dave Roberts (34), Mike Cameron (33), Darin Erstad (32), Gary Matthews Jr. (31) and Eric Byrnes (30). Assuming Matthews gets re-signed by Texas, and Hendry has the sense to stay away from Erstad, would it make sense for Hendry to pick Roberts or Cameron over Pierre? In my estimation, it's not a slam dunk given their injury history. For some reason, Hendry stayed away from Byrnes after he was non-tendered last offseason, so I assume he views him as a platoon type of guy. (2) Through yesterday's game, Juan does have a .342 OBP for the month of June. That's not great, but it is a huge improvement over April and May. (3) I'm not an expert on the minor leagues, but my sources tell me Felix Pie doesn't project to be a major leaguer in 2007. He still has a lot of things to work on for his swing in their opinion. (4) Derrek Lee is a huge fan and supporter of Juan Pierre. (5) Are there realistically any good trade candidates out there? I mean I have heard Carl Crawford's name thrown around, but will Hendry pony up 3 pitchers like he did with Pierre? Doubtful. However, I will say I could see a deal for Andruw Jones - it does look like Atlanta will blow it up after this season. Hoops

Roast, You answered your own question. In Jim Hendry's mind, paying a 31 year old, left-handed hitting, toolsy player with 30 hr potential $11.67M over 2007 and 2008 is just not terrible.

The Yankees hold club options on Mike Mussina and Gary Sheffield in 2007. If they choose not to exercise either player it would free up $28.5M. Even if they choose to keep one, it still gives them $13-15M to instantly spend. If Zito decides to stay in the AL, I think it's high probability that the Yankees get him. Although, if Zito has a preference for California, the Angels have the offseason money ($20M free with Erstad, Weaver and Kennedy off the books) to get it done too, if they prioritize pitching. My thinking still is that the Angels will use the money to go after Soriano. And while the Mets could get into the bidding for Zito, my dark horse pick in the NL is the Giants. The Giants potentially have their 5 top salaried players all coming off the books (Bonds, Schmidt, Durham, Finley, Alou) for a potential of $50M available to spend. Plus, Zito has said many times that he loves the Bay Area.

I'm not sure "fascination" would be the right word in my case. I'm just looking at OPS stats plain and simple: Carlos Lee's is .928, which ranks 7th among major league left fielders with qualified at bats. Alfonso Soriano is currently 8th right behind Lee at .927. Among the top 10 in OPS at LF, Lee and Soriano are the only free agents. The other 8 players are either under contract, or under team control.

Can't argue with anything you are saying. I just feel the net outcome will be positive in December. I feel 2 staright dismal years will motivate him.

You think Hendry will be fired that soon and replaced with a competent GM? No, I don't think so. But I think we'll see a different Jim Hendry this offseason. Different as in he'll actually do something or different as in he'll actually do something smart? He might change how aggressive he is to get the guys he wants, but the problem is he wants the wrong guys and I don't think he'll change that. I think he'll have one or two key smart moves - he may fall into the decision reactively, but I think there will be 2 good moves at the end of the day. I actually thought signing Eyre and Howry were smart moves - I didn't mind the money. The problem is that Hendry wasted money on Rusch, Neify and Jacque Jones. Net net - negative. I think the "net net" will be positive this offseason.

You think Hendry will be fired that soon and replaced with a competent GM? No, I don't think so. But I think we'll see a different Jim Hendry this offseason.

Can't tell if the tone on this thread is sarcastic or frustration-driven, but I'm pretty optimistic about the Cubs chances this offseason despite the horrible season they are having in 2006. Per my quick calculations, factoring in raises for Zambrano and Prior, I see the Cubs having around $25M to spend this offseason with the obvious holes being CF, LF, 2B and a starting pitcher. Felix Pie will probably be given every opportunity to win the CF job. Thus, as far as LF, 2B and pitching goes through free agency, I can see Hendry signing Carlos Lee, Ronnie Belliard and Jason Schmidt. I don't think the Cubs will be in the Soriano or Zito sweepstakes, and I think Hendry will shy away from Mulder's injuries. From a trade perspective, I don't think we can rule out Hendry attempting to bring in guys like Raul Ibanez, Jose Vidro or Livan Hernandez. If Pie is not in the 2007 plans, the Cubs may look at Dave Roberts - I have heard that Hendry has liked him in the past.

Oh, I'm sure Rolen was sincerely considering the Cubs. I'm just speculating that there would have been very low probability of the two sides agreeing to a deal. Rolen ended up getting 8 years and $90M from St. Louis. My guess is the Cubs would have offered 4 years and $50M with a 5th year vesting option.

i remember that all they gave up was polanco and bud smith ](*,) Why must you cause me pain? Mike Timlin was also in that deal too as I recall. Still a steal, but the Phillies let Timlin go. Phillies wanted Jon Lieber from us....who of course they eventually ended up getting through free agency....while we did NOT get Rolen. :evil: Rolen was easily worth Lieber. I think it is also worth pointing out that even if the Cubs had traded Lieber + prospect for Rolen, there was no guarantee that the Cubs could have kept Rolen after that season. It was very well known early in Rolen's 6th year of service that St. Louis was going to make him a huge offer in free agency. Rolen was rumored to have turned down a 10 year $140M extension from the Phillies. Given the Cubs 3-year/4-year stance on contracts, I think there was a less than 5% chance that Rolen would be a Cub today.

From Florida's perspective, I bet they would want 3 of the following 4 players: Marshall, Guzman, Marmol and Hill.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=2485721 Nothing earth-shatteringly original here, but definitely a good summary of guys that could potentially be moved. I'm a bit surprised that Todd Walker's name was not in the group of hitters at the bottom of the column. Hoops