With Matthew Boyd Starting Again, How Will Craig Counsell Use the Rest of the Pitching Staff in Game 4?

The Cubs are still alive. After scoring in the first inning for the third time in a row, the team actually held on to their lead for the first time. To the surprise of absolutely nobody; that four-run early outburst was the extent of the Cubs’ scoring for the game. Luckily, Jameson Taillon dialed things in for the next 2 innings and change, retiring 8 in a row, before allowing another run in the 4th. Drew Pomeranz took over for Taillon in the fifth. Pomeranz and Daniel Palencia each threw a scoreless inning, before Andrew Kittredge gave up a run in the top of the 7th. Even with a few tense moments for Caleb Thielbar and Brad Keller, the Cubs were able to keep the tying run off the board and hold on to the 4-3 lead. They've relied heavily on their bullpen during the playoffs so far, and Game 4 will be an all-hands-on-deck approach as they try to fend off elimination and send the series back to Milwaukee.

Matthew Boyd will start for the second time this series, and the third time this postseason. Infamously, in Game 1, he couldn’t even make it out of the first inning. He was charged with six runs, although four were unearned due to Nico Hoerner’s blunder at second base and two scored after he departed. Milwaukee had no problem squaring up the funky veteran lefty. With his recent usage and ineffectiveness, it feels likely that Boyd is going to be used as a glorified opener Thursday, passing the ball to Colin Rea—who has been surprisingly absent from the pitching plans this series after dominating in September. Rea’s only action in this series has been his 3 1/3 innings of mop-up duty in Monday’s blowout. 

The idea with starting Boyd can be tied to the lefty hitters that Milwaukee tends to stack at the top of their lineup: Christian Yelich, Brice Turang, and Sal Frelick. In Game 1, Turang hit second, Yelich in the cleanup spot and Frelick was pushed down to sixth. If Boyd can get through the first and second innings without imploding again, Rea might come in and give them three or four innings of shut down ball. This will put the Cubs in a situation where they will not need to use a parade of middle relievers starting in inning No. 4 or 5, as they have been doing all postseason. Rea did not allow a run in his multi-inning stint on Monday, and though he did not record a strikeout, it's not necessarily a bad idea to pitch to contact on a cool night in Chicago, where the ball won’t be carrying as easily. 

Aaron Civale and Ben Brown are also capable of going a few innings, and pitched well in their appearances on Saturday when the game was already out of reach. Neither has pitched since, surely making them available for a few innings if needed. Fans may cringe hearing that Brown is an option, considering his volatility this season and his ERA close to 6.00. Civale hasn’t been with the Cubs long, and was generally bad this season with the Brewers and White Sox. He does have a 2.08 ERA and a WHIP of 0.54 in 13 innings since joining the Cubs, which makes him the hot hand over Brown—though the Cubs don't make decisions that way, and Brown's superior stuff might make him the preferred choice between the two.

This is not meant to be a slight toward Brown, because Cubs fans would likely prefer him taking the mound before Michael Soroka, who should be kept in the equipment closet for this game without access to anything resembling a baseball. (Again, though, if the Cubs trust the stuff, he'll go in there; his lousy showing in Game 1 was an unfair representation of what he's capable of.) Pomeranz, Kittredge, Palencia, Keller and Thielbar will all be available, but ideally, not all of them will be needed, with Rea or Civale taking over for a multi-inning relief appearance after a short Boyd appearance. Thielbar or Pomeranz will inevitably enter when Yelich comes up late in the game, or when Jake Bauers comes in off the bench. Keller should close again, but this pen has been used a lot the past week, which is why Counsell may decide to go with an arm who did not pitch yesterday instead of trusting Kittredge, who has looked low on gas. Palencia's electric fastball should keep him in the plans today, but do not be surprised to see him enter mid-inning to limit his fatigue or to see Counsell use him against the bottom of the Milwaukee order.

Even after losing the first two games in Milwaukee, Wrigley Field was buzzing last night with fans who haven’t lost hope. The vibes should be the same Thursday night, and it apparently starts with Boyd. If he can get through two scoreless innings with the offense getting off to an early lead off Peralta, there is a good chance we can see this go to a Game 5.