The Chances of Something Really Good Coming of This Season For Cubs Are 7.5%

As of Thursday morning, the Cubs have a 3.8% chance of reaching the playoffs, according to Baseball Prospectus and its PECOTA projection system. If that sounds too optimistic, it's because it almost certainly is, but that's what the model says. The Cubs haven't quite seized their moment lately, with a bad series loss to the Pirates last week and a game that slipped away from them at Dodger Stadium Wednesday night, but their competition has been kind enough to falter, too, keeping some theoretical possibility alive.

Funnily enough, that 3.8% mark is almost identical to the chances that the Cubs will sneak into the MLB Draft Lottery and pick within the top six picks in 2025. They're currently the team with the second-best record, among those who stand to be left out of the playoffs--the 17th-worst in baseball. According to the odds the league uses for its lottery, the team slotted to pick 17th in theory has a 94.6% chance of picking in exactly that position, and a 2.1% chance of picking 18th. The rest of their probability is scattered among those top six picks, since they could be selected for any of them via the lottery.

In practice, the Cubs' chances of being in the lottery are a little higher than the numbers suggest, because the White Sox and A's are both ineligible to pick inside the lottery next year--but the effect of those disqualifications on the Cubs' hopes, given their position, is quite small.

So, each of these two things are possible, and about equally so. It's close to 25-to-1 that the Cubs make the playoffs, and close to the same number that they get to pick higher than they have since 2014 in next year's first round. That's it, though. If neither of those longshots comes in, the Cubs will have muddled through another season of being stuck in the middle, without substantial change or progress and without a high pick to try to ameliorate that next summer.

The reality of their lousy odds and high stakes is starting to get more stark. The team is unlikely to move on from their group of baseball decision-makers this fall, but without that turnover, from where will the changes they really need come? If they do make the playoffs, that would go a short but meaningful distance toward validating Jed Hoyer's project as the architect of the team. If they do eventually win the lottery, at this year's Winter Meetings in early December, it would give them a chance to make a sudden and unexpected infusion of high-end talent. In all the most likely cases, though, they head into the winter with another not-good-enough season behind them, facing the formidable task of dramatically upgrading a roster that was built around the idea that it was good enough without such an overhaul.

To believe the team can turn the corner without the confidence and revenue infusion of a playoff berth or the talent boon of a lottery pick, you have to believe this front office is ready to change the way they do business. They've already shown a shrewd eye for talent, with recent draft picks and sound trades and signings, but that's not enough. They have to show an appetite for big-picture, grand-scale upgrades, and a greater mixture of flexibility and urgency than they've shown over the nearly half-decade of Hoyer's administration.

For now, the cards are still coming down. Maybe the team will hit the big flush they've been drawing to, on the fourth or fifth card. It's much more likely, though, that they're about to walk away from the table with empty hands and pockets again. They had better bring a wholly different, more robust strategy to next year's main event.