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  • Scorching Starts By Patrick Wisdom and Christopher Morel Give Cubs Good Options at Third Base


    Randy Holt

    Patrick Wisdom is the hottest slugger in baseball, and not just thanks to those eyes and that smile. His impressive start creates a bit of a logjam for the Cubs, though, with particular respect to Christopher Morel.

    Image courtesy of © Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports

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    As I watch Patrick Wisdom hit his second homer of the night and tie Pete Alonso for the league lead, with eight, I am reminded of two things. 

    1. There’s a slight chance I might have been at least a little bit wrong about this Cubs offense. It’s fun! It’s not especially powerful (beyond Wisdom), but the contact and the baserunning make them a far more compelling group to watch on that side of the ball than I expected.
    2. I was probably also wrong about the aforementioned Wisdom. 

    The Cubs made improvements to most areas of their lineup. At the very least, spots like first base were addressed. They left the hot corner untouched. I certainly wondered about that. Of course, discussion will be had about a potential Matt Chapman signing down the road, but the spring training picture didn’t lend itself to a great deal of encouragement. 

    There was Wisdom, of course. Christopher Morel had a fun rookie year, with the team potentially looking at him as an option there after moving him around a bunch in 2022. Edwin Rios was added during the spring, giving the Cubs a potentially potent platoon (love alliteration) with at least average defense at the spot. Nick Madrigal was added to the mix. It became a hodgepodge of bodies at a corner spot, which seems to be a bit of a secondary theme with this year’s group. 

    To this point, though, the spot has been all about Wisdom. He’s started 10 games there, with a pair of appearances in right field and one as the designated hitter. It’s otherwise been Madrigal, who has been just fine defensively across four starts. Nonetheless, as muddled as the spot was, it’s extremely clear that Wisdom has third on lock. 

    And with good reason. Beyond his eight homers, Wisdom has been fantastic in the small sample. His strikeout rate, at 31.6%, is actually lower than it’s been in either of the last two years. Contact is up a bunch, sitting at 73.3% overall, a bump of seven percentage points from last year. His 193 wRC+ and .500 ISO are hilarious stats to include given the sample size, but they speak to just how hot he’s been. 

    In nailing down third, Wisdom has essentially made the other options on the roster into non-factors. David Ross has been content to roll Ríos out as nothing more than a DH, while Madrigal gets in as a contact bat mostly designed to give Wisdom a blow. Those roles are becoming more clearly defined before the month of April is even out. 

    Where this does complicate things is in matters of Christopher Morel. At one point during the spring, it looked as if Morel could be the guy at the spot. As a rookie last year, he saw time at second, third, shortstop, left, and center, with the healthy plurality of those appearances (57 of them) in that last spot. And while he was optioned to Iowa to start the year, he’s been on a scorcher to start 2023. 

    Through a dozen games in Triple A, Morel has gone for a .378 average and reached base at a .500 clip, with four homers and a pair of steals mixed in there. Three of his last four homers have come in the last three games. He’s walking at a very strong 18% rate, while his 28% strikeout rate is a little more reasonable than his 32% at the big-league level in 2022. His wRC+ is a comical 225. He’s been fantastic. And, by all accounts, it’s not going to matter in the short-term, because of Patrick Wisdom’s own offensive outbursts. 

    Finding a fit for Morel seemed easy early on. Wisdom was always going to get the first crack. But if he struggled, it seemed more likely that Morel would get a shot for a regular gig over guys like Ríos or Madrigal. With Wisdom going the way he is, though, matters have become much more complicated in finding a path for Morel to return to the big leagues. 

    Morel has started at third in half of Iowa’s games so far, with looks in left and center for a couple games each. It’s a trend that illustrated the organization’s desire for him to develop at third base specifically. But if Morel’s going to force his way back to Wrigley, as appears to be the case based on this dozen-game sample, it’s likely going to require a different path than initially thought. 

    Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger, and a now-healthy Seiya Suzuki have the outfield spots locked down. It’s not a situation where Morel is needing to traverse the outfield grass in the same capacity that he did last year. The middle infield is also spoken for, between Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner. And with Wisdom’s start, first base is the only spot in any kind of flux (until we get that Matt Mervis call-up, at least). So, unless Wisdom flames out far quicker than any of us are expecting, it’s going to have to be some type of superutility role for Morel upon his return. 

    Not that there’s anything wrong with that. The DH does lend some flexibility to Ross to work in a guy like Morel on a near-daily basis. Get guys like Happ, Bellinger or Wisdom a day, and you’ve got Morel in there easily. Of course, that requires the team to declutter the backend of the roster. Phantom IL Trey Mancini? Move on from Eric Hosmer? Stop carrying three catchers? They’re solutions, but maybe not ones that the staff is inclined to make in the immediate future. Could that mean an extended stay in Iowa to continue to log regular starts at third, regardless of performance? It’s not at all out of the question. If anything, barring injury, it seems more likely at this point.

    Regardless of how it takes shape, it’s looking like the most logical path to get Morel playing games at the big-league level again is in that utility fashion. Third base has just become occupied in a way that none of us expected. It’s not a terrible problem to have, given that it’s required a torrid start from Wisdom. But it very much clouds the picture of what Morel’s path back to the top level looks like, even as good as he’s been thus far for Iowa. 

     

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    I've said this in another thread or two, but I'm in no rush to call Morel up.  The team sent him down to prioritize his development, so let's leave him down and prioritize his development.  

    Last year Morel had the worst in-zone contact rate in baseball.  We don't have apples to apples comparisons with minor league data, but he's currently swinging and missing more than he did last year in MLB (18.1% Swinging Strike Rate last year, 18.8% at Iowa this year).  He's hitting a ton more fly balls (and clearly hasn't lost any juice in the bat in the process) which is the other thing he needed to work on, but he's not a finished product.  All in all I'd much rather him come up in June and play at a 3+ win pace rather than have him come up right now and play at a 2.5.

    On Wisdom, I think this is more or less just a hot streak.  He's making more contact than normal, but if you go on Fangraphs and look at a rolling average of contact rate he's had periods at this level over the last two years.  I'm much more moved by his glove at 3rd, which has been great.  It looks like we've got 2021 Wisdom’s glove with 2022 Wisdom’s bat, which is a quality 1st division starter worth  ~2.5 WAR.

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    Great stuff!

    The Mervis and Morel situations are very intriguing. It just feels like it’s a matter of time with Mervis at this point, but still TBD on the timeline of Morel. While I want this Wisdom hot streak to last as long as possible, it will be interesting to see how things goes once he comes back down to Earth a little. 

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    Therein lies the problem with the Hosmers and Mancinis and Rioses of the world. You bring them in on cheap, but real MLB contracts, they give you close to what you expected from them based on past performance/dollars paid, ie generally average MLB production, and suddenly you're in a spot where Wisdom, Morel, Mervis, all kinda deserve ABs but there's only really a technical opening at one spot because first and DH and being adequately filled. 

    That being said, you can't really make any argument that this team is better with Torrens in the last bench spot instead of Morel, given the latter's flexibility and speed. 

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    28 minutes ago, Cubs2023 said:

    Great stuff!

    The Mervis and Morel situations are very intriguing. It just feels like it’s a matter of time with Mervis at this point, but still TBD on the timeline of Morel. While I want this Wisdom hot streak to last as long as possible, it will be interesting to see how things goes once he comes back down to Earth a little. 

    Wisdom isn't really blocking Morel. I agree with Bertz, somewhat, but Morel is a poor man's Ben Zobrist and can play anywhere. If anyone is blocking Morel it's Madrigal, and that makes less sense to me. 

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    1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

    Therein lies the problem with the Hosmers and Mancinis and Rioses of the world. You bring them in on cheap, but real MLB contracts, they give you close to what you expected from them based on past performance/dollars paid, ie generally average MLB production, and suddenly you're in a spot where Wisdom, Morel, Mervis, all kinda deserve ABs but there's only really a technical opening at one spot because first and DH and being adequately filled. 

    That being said, you can't really make any argument that this team is better with Torrens in the last bench spot instead of Morel, given the latter's flexibility and speed. 

    I simply don't get the third catcher thing. I didn't understand it 15 years ago when the Twins did it constantly and I sure as hell don't get it today when benches are shorter because bullpens are longer.

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    52 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

    I simply don't get the third catcher thing. I didn't understand it 15 years ago when the Twins did it constantly and I sure as hell don't get it today when benches are shorter because bullpens are longer.

    Yeah, and, to explicitly lay it out, the DH greatly decreases the number of in game substitutions a good team should be making to their lineup. Neither Gomes nor Barnhart are good enough to be a DH. Put them in whatever sort of platoon works best to keep them both fresh and tell them both to expect to catch the full game every night. The option to put Morel on the basepaths, his ability to cover multiple positions in case of an injury, etc far outweigh the chance that your catcher comes up in a big spot and you don't PH because you're scared of an injury to your backup catcher in whatever is left of the game. 

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