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    Padres-Cubs Wild Card Game One Thread, By The Numbers

    How have Padres hitters fared against Matthew Boyd, and how have the Cubs done against Nick Pivetta?
    Brandon Glick

    By Brandon Glick

    Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

    Cubs Video

    The Cubs host the Padres at Wrigley Field for game one of the best-of-three National League Wild Card Series; San Diego has tabbed Nick Pivetta as their game one starter, and the series will be played entirely at Wrigley Field.  

    Cubs hitters vs Nick Pivetta
    Pivetta, a right-hander, showed reverse splits in 2025: he allowed a .239 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .272 wOBA to right-handed batters. Chicago’s September production offers a few specific matchups to watch. Michael Busch (LHB) posted a .244/.337/.634 (.971 OPS) in September (95 PA). Ian Happ (switch-hitter) produced a .287/.382/.511 (.893 OPS) in September (110 PA). Seiya Suzuki (RHB) logged a .232/.333/.478 (.811 OPS) in September (81 PA).  

    Nick Pivetta vs. Chicago Cubs: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Dansby Swanson R 35 34 10 1 0 2 5 1 11 .294 .314 .500 .814 0 0 0 0 0
    2 Kyle Tucker L 12 10 2 1 0 0 2 1 2 .200 .250 .300 .550 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Ian Happ B 11 10 3 1 0 0 0 1 6 .300 .364 .400 .764 0 0 0 0 0
    4 Justin Turner R 9 8 5 2 0 2 3 1 0 .625 .667 1.625 2.292 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Reese McGuire L 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .429 .333 .762 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Carson Kelly R 6 6 3 0 1 0 1 0 3 .500 .500 .833 1.333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Michael Busch L 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .000 .200 .000 .200 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Seiya Suzuki R 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .200 .200 .200 .400 0 0 0 0 1
    9 Willi Castro B 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    10 Nico Hoerner R 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    11 Pete Crow-Armstrong L 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .500 .333 .833 0 0 0 0 0
    12 Matt Shaw R 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Padres hitters vs Matthew Boyd
    Left-hander Matthew Boyd draws the Game 1 start for Chicago, nudging past Shota Imanaga to open the Cubs’ postseason. In 2025, Boyd held left-handed batters to a .258 wOBA and right-handed batters to a .297 wOBA. Manny Machado finished September with a .207/.250/.425 (.675 OPS), while Fernando Tatis Jr. finished the regular season with a .293/.352/.549 (.900 OPS) slash in September.  

    Matthew Boyd vs. San Diego Padres: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Xander Bogaerts R 18 16 3 0 0 1 3 2 3 .188 .278 .375 .653 0 0 0 0 1
    2 Manny Machado R 14 13 5 2 0 0 3 0 3 .385 .357 .538 .896 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Luis Arráez L 9 7 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 .429 .556 .571 1.127 0 0 0 1 0
    4 Freddy Fermin R 7 7 2 1 0 0 2 0 3 .286 .286 .429 .714 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Elias Díaz R 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 .400 .500 .400 .900 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Fernando Tatis Jr. R 6 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 .167 .167 .167 .333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Jackson Merrill L 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Jose Iglesias R 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .667 0 0 0 0 0
    9 Jake Cronenworth L 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Defensive context
    Outs on contact could swing this game. Chicago’s center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks among MLB’s 2025 leaders with +21 Outs Above Average, providing elite gap coverage behind any starter the Cubs deploy. At shortstop, Dansby Swanson is again a positive in Statcast’s range metrics (+1 OAA at SS in 2025), a drop from previous seasons but still capable. For San Diego, Fernando Tatis Jr. brings plus defense in right field (+7 OAA), a notable factor against Wrigley’s alley-driven extra-base profile.  

    Notes On Key Matchups

    • Cubs LHB (Busch, etc.) vs Pivetta (R): Pivetta’s 2025 wOBA allowed to LHB was .239; Busch carried a .971 OPS in September.
    • Cubs RHB (Suzuki, etc.) vs Pivetta: Pivetta allowed a .272 wOBA to RHB; Suzuki posted an .811 OPS in September.  
    • Padres RHB (Tatis, Machado) vs Boyd (L): Boyd allowed a .297 wOBA to RHB; Machado logged a .675 OPS in September; Tatis finished with a .353 season wOBA

    Writer | Director | Author

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    Featured Comments

    Tangled Up in Plaid

    Tangled Up in Plaid 409

    Posted

    Just now, UMFan83 said:

    Too bad these HRs came in the Zaidman inning

    Bro has no business calling anything in the playoffs.

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,541

    Posted

    Just now, Pinerider said:

    WTF is PCA DOING BUNTING ON 2 STRIKES?

    He was doing this. 

    Stats wise, it has merit. A little less against a RHP, but it remains statistical viable for someone like Pete.

    DrCub

    DrCub 71

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

    To be fair, especially to Shaw, the likely reason he chased the fastball is because he got stuck with a strike-2 call that was *not* a strike (per Statcast). Good pitching; Pivetta went fastball outside the zone further than the bad called strike and generated a whiff. 

    On one hand, yes, Shaw should not swing at that. But that's also good pitching and a little bit of favorable umping on the call. It's not as cut and dry as one thing or another. 

    I don’t think it is either, I certainly can appreciate Pivetta was pitching well, but I think we helped him out some as well. 

    Brian707

    Brian707 1,519

    Posted

    1 minute ago, UMFan83 said:

    Too bad these HRs came in the Zaidman inning

    I can only imagine ugh

    Stratos

    Stratos 503

    Posted

    1 minute ago, ILMindState said:

    PCA is too amped up. He's gotta settle down 

    That's just PCA though

    SpongeWorthy

    SpongeWorthy 377

    Posted

    palencia coming back out?

    squally1313

    squally1313 2,225

    Posted

    Shaw is not seeing Pivetta well at all

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,541

    Posted

    1 minute ago, DrCub said:

    I don’t think it is either, I certainly can appreciate Pivetta was pitching well, but I think we helped him out some as well. 

    We probably did a little. But I think the narrative of "oh no it's the Cubs offense again!" that this thread had been hard on is just not an accurate description of what's going on. He's generating those whiffs largely due to his own pitching. I don't think we were helping him nearly to the degree people here think. I'd say it's 70/30 in favor of Nick.

    Guest

    Guest

    Posted

    Pivette sweating his ballz off. Hot there today?

    squally1313

    squally1313 2,225

    Posted

    Just now, SpongeWorthy said:

    palencia coming back out?

    I'd like him too, to get through Machado, Merrill, Boegarts. Then you can go lefty for the bottom. But I think it's always tricky making a reliever sit on the bench for an extended period.

    Post Count Padder

    Post Count Padder 195

    Posted

    Dansby you can't take pitches like that.

    SpongeWorthy

    SpongeWorthy 377

    Posted

    Just now, Pinerider said:

    Pivette sweating his ballz off. Hot there today?

    these padres uniforms look like damp towels i think

    • Like 2
    Irrelevant Dude

    Irrelevant Dude 1,546

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, SpongeWorthy said:

    palencia coming back out?

    If he does, he's definitely done for tomorrow... which is fine, just win the game today.

    Chicago Al

    Chicago Al 65

    Posted

    Shaw looks like that kid trying to hit 70mph for the first time in the batting cages.

    Stratos

    Stratos 503

    Posted

    Palencia's face has morphed into Jeremiah Estrada's

    Guest

    Guest

    Posted

    Shaw looking lost at the plate so far

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,541

    Posted

    Feel like we got a little lucky. I don't think he went.

    • Like 1
    Guest

    Guest

    Posted

    Massive K there nice work Palencia

    Post Count Padder

    Post Count Padder 195

    Posted

    I know we're getting some robot umps next season but Kelly's framing has been pretty good.

    Derwood

    Derwood 3,372

    Posted

    A fixed Seiya and Palencia would go a long way this postseason

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,541

    Posted

    I love when he runs the clock down,

    Guest

    Guest

    Posted

    palencia dealing son!



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