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    Padres-Cubs Wild Card Game One Thread, By The Numbers

    How have Padres hitters fared against Matthew Boyd, and how have the Cubs done against Nick Pivetta?
    Brandon Glick

    By Brandon Glick

    Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

    Cubs Video

    The Cubs host the Padres at Wrigley Field for game one of the best-of-three National League Wild Card Series; San Diego has tabbed Nick Pivetta as their game one starter, and the series will be played entirely at Wrigley Field.  

    Cubs hitters vs Nick Pivetta
    Pivetta, a right-hander, showed reverse splits in 2025: he allowed a .239 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .272 wOBA to right-handed batters. Chicago’s September production offers a few specific matchups to watch. Michael Busch (LHB) posted a .244/.337/.634 (.971 OPS) in September (95 PA). Ian Happ (switch-hitter) produced a .287/.382/.511 (.893 OPS) in September (110 PA). Seiya Suzuki (RHB) logged a .232/.333/.478 (.811 OPS) in September (81 PA).  

    Nick Pivetta vs. Chicago Cubs: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Dansby Swanson R 35 34 10 1 0 2 5 1 11 .294 .314 .500 .814 0 0 0 0 0
    2 Kyle Tucker L 12 10 2 1 0 0 2 1 2 .200 .250 .300 .550 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Ian Happ B 11 10 3 1 0 0 0 1 6 .300 .364 .400 .764 0 0 0 0 0
    4 Justin Turner R 9 8 5 2 0 2 3 1 0 .625 .667 1.625 2.292 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Reese McGuire L 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .429 .333 .762 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Carson Kelly R 6 6 3 0 1 0 1 0 3 .500 .500 .833 1.333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Michael Busch L 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .000 .200 .000 .200 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Seiya Suzuki R 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .200 .200 .200 .400 0 0 0 0 1
    9 Willi Castro B 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    10 Nico Hoerner R 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    11 Pete Crow-Armstrong L 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .500 .333 .833 0 0 0 0 0
    12 Matt Shaw R 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Padres hitters vs Matthew Boyd
    Left-hander Matthew Boyd draws the Game 1 start for Chicago, nudging past Shota Imanaga to open the Cubs’ postseason. In 2025, Boyd held left-handed batters to a .258 wOBA and right-handed batters to a .297 wOBA. Manny Machado finished September with a .207/.250/.425 (.675 OPS), while Fernando Tatis Jr. finished the regular season with a .293/.352/.549 (.900 OPS) slash in September.  

    Matthew Boyd vs. San Diego Padres: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Xander Bogaerts R 18 16 3 0 0 1 3 2 3 .188 .278 .375 .653 0 0 0 0 1
    2 Manny Machado R 14 13 5 2 0 0 3 0 3 .385 .357 .538 .896 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Luis Arráez L 9 7 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 .429 .556 .571 1.127 0 0 0 1 0
    4 Freddy Fermin R 7 7 2 1 0 0 2 0 3 .286 .286 .429 .714 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Elias Díaz R 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 .400 .500 .400 .900 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Fernando Tatis Jr. R 6 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 .167 .167 .167 .333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Jackson Merrill L 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Jose Iglesias R 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .667 0 0 0 0 0
    9 Jake Cronenworth L 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Defensive context
    Outs on contact could swing this game. Chicago’s center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks among MLB’s 2025 leaders with +21 Outs Above Average, providing elite gap coverage behind any starter the Cubs deploy. At shortstop, Dansby Swanson is again a positive in Statcast’s range metrics (+1 OAA at SS in 2025), a drop from previous seasons but still capable. For San Diego, Fernando Tatis Jr. brings plus defense in right field (+7 OAA), a notable factor against Wrigley’s alley-driven extra-base profile.  

    Notes On Key Matchups

    • Cubs LHB (Busch, etc.) vs Pivetta (R): Pivetta’s 2025 wOBA allowed to LHB was .239; Busch carried a .971 OPS in September.
    • Cubs RHB (Suzuki, etc.) vs Pivetta: Pivetta allowed a .272 wOBA to RHB; Suzuki posted an .811 OPS in September.  
    • Padres RHB (Tatis, Machado) vs Boyd (L): Boyd allowed a .297 wOBA to RHB; Machado logged a .675 OPS in September; Tatis finished with a .353 season wOBA

    Writer | Director | Author

    Short Film: Path of Two Minds
    Novel: The Great, Horrible Tragedy

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    Featured Comments

    Guest

    Guest

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

    Watching this broadcast and I think Im watching hillbilly Nascar BS

    Huh? What part of it reminds you of hillbilly Nascar?

    Outshined_One

    Outshined_One 847

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Pinerider said:

    Ugh Boyd looks off to me

    All I ask is he gets through the 5th with only 2 runs scored. If he can accomplish that, I feel good about the Cubs' odds.

    squally1313

    squally1313 2,227

    Posted

    PCA would have been camped out under that ball

    Stratos

    Stratos 503

    Posted

    Ben sounds like Tony Gwynn (or Tony Gymn Jr)

    • Like 1
    Andy

    Andy 577

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Pinerider said:

    Huh? What part of it reminds you of hillbilly Nascar?

    I'm assuming it's all the ads. The ads on batting helmets thing is so stupid.

    Hortonhearsawho

    Hortonhearsawho 84

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

    With no outs, it was a fine decision IMO. Good on Boyd for squirming out of the jam.

    He scores easily if he goes. Dansby had to dive and would have had to throw it awkwardly.

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,541

    Posted

    I like PCA here to run into one

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,541

    Posted

    Just now, Jason Ross said:

    I like PCA here to run into one

    Ignore if he strikes out. I'll delete.

    squally1313

    squally1313 2,227

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Hortonhearsawho said:

    He scores easily if he goes. Dansby had to dive and would have had to throw it awkwardly.

    I'm guessing it's not the easiest thing in the world from his angle to determine if that was a hard hit GB right at Dansby or one step to his right.

    Irrelevant Dude

    Irrelevant Dude 1,546

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Stratos said:

    Ben sounds like Tony Gwynn (or Tony Gymn Jr)

    I thought the same thing.

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,541

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

    I like PCA here to run into one

    You Are Dumb Mario Lopez GIF

    • Haha 1
    Irrelevant Dude

    Irrelevant Dude 1,546

    Posted (edited)

    6 minutes ago, Pinerider said:

    Huh? What part of it reminds you of hillbilly Nascar?

    I assumed he meant the fast-talking southerner.

    Edited by Irrelevant Dude
    • Like 1
    Andy

    Andy 577

    Posted

    Pivetta is throwing some great pitches, granted, but if Pete keeps doing that crap we're not going anywhere

    Cubbies1996

    Cubbies1996 101

    Posted

    Jesus Christ Pete. Not a single swing at a pitch in the zone.

    Rex Buckingham

    Rex Buckingham 702

    Posted

    Oh Pete....

     

    Also, not sure I can handle McDonald

    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,016

    Posted

    I don't think I've ever been more confident that an AB was going to end in a strikeout than when PCA got to 2 strikes there.  Way too overeager

    Outshined_One

    Outshined_One 847

    Posted

    Just now, Jason Ross said:

    You Are Dumb Mario Lopez GIF

    Willy Coyote GIFs | Tenor

    • Haha 1
    PeanutPunch33

    PeanutPunch33 210

    Posted

    Well, someone on offense will have to step up today

    SpongeWorthy

    SpongeWorthy 377

    Posted

    swing at something in the zip code pete

    Manny Trillos Brother

    Manny Trillos Brother 15

    Posted

    That was an absolutely atrocious at bat by PCA. You've at least gotta make the guy put one in the zone.

     

    • Like 1
    Cubbies1996

    Cubbies1996 101

    Posted

    Todays gonna be a grind on offense lol

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,541

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

    I'm guessing it's not the easiest thing in the world from his angle to determine if that was a hard hit GB right at Dansby or one step to his right.

    Exactly. He probably froze initially just to ensure it was a ground ball. That ball was hit 101mph off the bat and did go 65 feet, so it wasn't too far from Swanson when it actually got down. Last thing he was going to do was get doubled off with zero outs. 

    He would have scored if it was more clearly a groundball because he'd have gone on pure contact. With 0 outs you're much more cautious. 

    Irrelevant Dude

    Irrelevant Dude 1,546

    Posted

    We aren't scoring today. (Prove me wrong)

    • Like 2


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