Jump to content
North Side Baseball
  • Cubs News & Analysis

    Padres-Cubs Wild Card Game One Thread, By The Numbers

    How have Padres hitters fared against Matthew Boyd, and how have the Cubs done against Nick Pivetta?
    Brandon Glick

    By Brandon Glick

    Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

    Cubs Video

    The Cubs host the Padres at Wrigley Field for game one of the best-of-three National League Wild Card Series; San Diego has tabbed Nick Pivetta as their game one starter, and the series will be played entirely at Wrigley Field.  

    Cubs hitters vs Nick Pivetta
    Pivetta, a right-hander, showed reverse splits in 2025: he allowed a .239 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .272 wOBA to right-handed batters. Chicago’s September production offers a few specific matchups to watch. Michael Busch (LHB) posted a .244/.337/.634 (.971 OPS) in September (95 PA). Ian Happ (switch-hitter) produced a .287/.382/.511 (.893 OPS) in September (110 PA). Seiya Suzuki (RHB) logged a .232/.333/.478 (.811 OPS) in September (81 PA).  

    Nick Pivetta vs. Chicago Cubs: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Dansby Swanson R 35 34 10 1 0 2 5 1 11 .294 .314 .500 .814 0 0 0 0 0
    2 Kyle Tucker L 12 10 2 1 0 0 2 1 2 .200 .250 .300 .550 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Ian Happ B 11 10 3 1 0 0 0 1 6 .300 .364 .400 .764 0 0 0 0 0
    4 Justin Turner R 9 8 5 2 0 2 3 1 0 .625 .667 1.625 2.292 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Reese McGuire L 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .429 .333 .762 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Carson Kelly R 6 6 3 0 1 0 1 0 3 .500 .500 .833 1.333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Michael Busch L 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .000 .200 .000 .200 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Seiya Suzuki R 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .200 .200 .200 .400 0 0 0 0 1
    9 Willi Castro B 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    10 Nico Hoerner R 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    11 Pete Crow-Armstrong L 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .500 .333 .833 0 0 0 0 0
    12 Matt Shaw R 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Padres hitters vs Matthew Boyd
    Left-hander Matthew Boyd draws the Game 1 start for Chicago, nudging past Shota Imanaga to open the Cubs’ postseason. In 2025, Boyd held left-handed batters to a .258 wOBA and right-handed batters to a .297 wOBA. Manny Machado finished September with a .207/.250/.425 (.675 OPS), while Fernando Tatis Jr. finished the regular season with a .293/.352/.549 (.900 OPS) slash in September.  

    Matthew Boyd vs. San Diego Padres: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Xander Bogaerts R 18 16 3 0 0 1 3 2 3 .188 .278 .375 .653 0 0 0 0 1
    2 Manny Machado R 14 13 5 2 0 0 3 0 3 .385 .357 .538 .896 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Luis Arráez L 9 7 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 .429 .556 .571 1.127 0 0 0 1 0
    4 Freddy Fermin R 7 7 2 1 0 0 2 0 3 .286 .286 .429 .714 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Elias Díaz R 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 .400 .500 .400 .900 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Fernando Tatis Jr. R 6 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 .167 .167 .167 .333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Jackson Merrill L 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Jose Iglesias R 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .667 0 0 0 0 0
    9 Jake Cronenworth L 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Defensive context
    Outs on contact could swing this game. Chicago’s center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks among MLB’s 2025 leaders with +21 Outs Above Average, providing elite gap coverage behind any starter the Cubs deploy. At shortstop, Dansby Swanson is again a positive in Statcast’s range metrics (+1 OAA at SS in 2025), a drop from previous seasons but still capable. For San Diego, Fernando Tatis Jr. brings plus defense in right field (+7 OAA), a notable factor against Wrigley’s alley-driven extra-base profile.  

    Notes On Key Matchups

    • Cubs LHB (Busch, etc.) vs Pivetta (R): Pivetta’s 2025 wOBA allowed to LHB was .239; Busch carried a .971 OPS in September.
    • Cubs RHB (Suzuki, etc.) vs Pivetta: Pivetta allowed a .272 wOBA to RHB; Suzuki posted an .811 OPS in September.  
    • Padres RHB (Tatis, Machado) vs Boyd (L): Boyd allowed a .297 wOBA to RHB; Machado logged a .675 OPS in September; Tatis finished with a .353 season wOBA

    Writer | Director | Author

    Short Film: Path of Two Minds
    Novel: The Great, Horrible Tragedy

    Follow Brandon Glick on Twitter: brandonglick (on BlueSky)

    Follow North Side Baseball For Chicago Cubs News & Analysis

     Share
     Share
    Go to articles

    Recent Cubs Articles

    Recent Cubs Videos

    Community Blogs

    • Revisiting my Batting Order Plan: Am I Beating Counsell?
    • Predicting the Cubs Wins for 2026: Revisiting My MOJO System

    Forum Topics

    • Cardinals (Liberatore) vs Cubs (Assad): 7/5/26, 1:30pm
    • Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-4-26

    Cubs Top Prospects

    Mason McGwire

    South Bend Cubs - A+, RHP
    The 2022 8th-round pick was named to the Futures Game Roster. After missing the 2025 season, he is 3-3 with a 3.00 ERA in 15 games (9 starts) between Low and High-A. He has 64 strikeouts in 48 innings.
    View All Top Prospects
    A Complete History Of Chicago Cubs Owners

    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments



    Featured Comments

    Stratos

    Stratos 523

    Posted

    Dansby

    imb

    imb 3,610

    Posted

    well there goes that dream #bansheesofinisherin #thebansheesofinisherin #thebansheesofinisherinedit #barrykeoghan #barrykeoghanedit #edit #foryoupage #fyp #number1ayostan #viral

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,689

    Posted

    Swanson! Nice play. Hold them to 1. That's okay. We weren't going to win 1-0.

    PeanutPunch33

    PeanutPunch33 259

    Posted

    I have no horsefeathers confidence in this team.  Most underwhelming 90+ win team ever 

    • Disagree 4
    SpongeWorthy

    SpongeWorthy 384

    Posted

    how is that a throwing error on PCA?

    Stratos

    Stratos 523

    Posted

    Ben McDonald doesn't understand why runner at 3rd doesn't run on contact on grounder with no outs?  Lol

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,689

    Posted

    Just now, SpongeWorthy said:

    how is that a throwing error on PCA?

    Yeah, feel like that should be more on Nico than anything. 

    Brian707

    Brian707 1,584

    Posted

    Watching this broadcast and I think Im watching hillbilly Nascar BS

    • Haha 1
    Brock Beauchamp

    Brock Beauchamp 784

    Posted

    Just now, Stratos said:

    Ben McDonald doesn't understand why runner at 3rd doesn't run on contact on grounder with no outs?  Lol

    Yeah, that was a weird statement.

    soccer10k

    soccer10k 589

    Posted

    Huge to hold them to 1 there.

    Hortonhearsawho

    Hortonhearsawho 93

    Posted

    Pretty dumb on Xander part to not try and score on that hit to Swanson. It saved us a run at least.

    squally1313

    squally1313 2,342

    Posted

    feels like a small victory there

    Irrelevant Dude

    Irrelevant Dude 1,621

    Posted

    That's huge stranding the runner at third.  I feel much better being down only 1 run.

    • Like 1
    Brock Beauchamp

    Brock Beauchamp 784

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, SpongeWorthy said:

    how is that a throwing error on PCA?

    Can't expect a guy to catch the ball when you throw the ball into his glove.

    Stratos

    Stratos 523

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, SpongeWorthy said:

    how is that a throwing error on PCA?

    I think it short hopped Nico

    Brock Beauchamp

    Brock Beauchamp 784

    Posted

    Just now, Hortonhearsawho said:

    Pretty dumb on Xander part to not try and score on that hit to Swanson. It saved us a run at least.

    With no outs, it was a fine decision IMO. Good on Boyd for squirming out of the jam.

    Irrelevant Dude

    Irrelevant Dude 1,621

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, SpongeWorthy said:

    how is that a throwing error on PCA?

    He short hopped it.  You can't give the infielder an error for failing to pick it out of the dirt.

    Guest

    Guest

    Posted

    Ugh Boyd looks off to me

    squally1313

    squally1313 2,342

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

    Yeah, that was a weird statement.

    In his little rant it seems like he thought there was already one out, which makes the go on contact play a little more defensible. It's dumb how rare it is that other announcers in the booth feel comfortable correcting the other guy, and probably even more rare in a national broadcast setting where the broadcast team doesn't have as much rapport.

    • Like 1


    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...