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    Padres-Cubs Wild Card Game One Thread, By The Numbers

    How have Padres hitters fared against Matthew Boyd, and how have the Cubs done against Nick Pivetta?
    Brandon Glick

    By Brandon Glick

    Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

    Cubs Video

    The Cubs host the Padres at Wrigley Field for game one of the best-of-three National League Wild Card Series; San Diego has tabbed Nick Pivetta as their game one starter, and the series will be played entirely at Wrigley Field.  

    Cubs hitters vs Nick Pivetta
    Pivetta, a right-hander, showed reverse splits in 2025: he allowed a .239 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .272 wOBA to right-handed batters. Chicago’s September production offers a few specific matchups to watch. Michael Busch (LHB) posted a .244/.337/.634 (.971 OPS) in September (95 PA). Ian Happ (switch-hitter) produced a .287/.382/.511 (.893 OPS) in September (110 PA). Seiya Suzuki (RHB) logged a .232/.333/.478 (.811 OPS) in September (81 PA).  

    Nick Pivetta vs. Chicago Cubs: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Dansby Swanson R 35 34 10 1 0 2 5 1 11 .294 .314 .500 .814 0 0 0 0 0
    2 Kyle Tucker L 12 10 2 1 0 0 2 1 2 .200 .250 .300 .550 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Ian Happ B 11 10 3 1 0 0 0 1 6 .300 .364 .400 .764 0 0 0 0 0
    4 Justin Turner R 9 8 5 2 0 2 3 1 0 .625 .667 1.625 2.292 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Reese McGuire L 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .429 .333 .762 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Carson Kelly R 6 6 3 0 1 0 1 0 3 .500 .500 .833 1.333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Michael Busch L 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .000 .200 .000 .200 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Seiya Suzuki R 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .200 .200 .200 .400 0 0 0 0 1
    9 Willi Castro B 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    10 Nico Hoerner R 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    11 Pete Crow-Armstrong L 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .500 .333 .833 0 0 0 0 0
    12 Matt Shaw R 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Padres hitters vs Matthew Boyd
    Left-hander Matthew Boyd draws the Game 1 start for Chicago, nudging past Shota Imanaga to open the Cubs’ postseason. In 2025, Boyd held left-handed batters to a .258 wOBA and right-handed batters to a .297 wOBA. Manny Machado finished September with a .207/.250/.425 (.675 OPS), while Fernando Tatis Jr. finished the regular season with a .293/.352/.549 (.900 OPS) slash in September.  

    Matthew Boyd vs. San Diego Padres: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Xander Bogaerts R 18 16 3 0 0 1 3 2 3 .188 .278 .375 .653 0 0 0 0 1
    2 Manny Machado R 14 13 5 2 0 0 3 0 3 .385 .357 .538 .896 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Luis Arráez L 9 7 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 .429 .556 .571 1.127 0 0 0 1 0
    4 Freddy Fermin R 7 7 2 1 0 0 2 0 3 .286 .286 .429 .714 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Elias Díaz R 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 .400 .500 .400 .900 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Fernando Tatis Jr. R 6 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 .167 .167 .167 .333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Jackson Merrill L 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Jose Iglesias R 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .667 0 0 0 0 0
    9 Jake Cronenworth L 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Defensive context
    Outs on contact could swing this game. Chicago’s center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks among MLB’s 2025 leaders with +21 Outs Above Average, providing elite gap coverage behind any starter the Cubs deploy. At shortstop, Dansby Swanson is again a positive in Statcast’s range metrics (+1 OAA at SS in 2025), a drop from previous seasons but still capable. For San Diego, Fernando Tatis Jr. brings plus defense in right field (+7 OAA), a notable factor against Wrigley’s alley-driven extra-base profile.  

    Notes On Key Matchups

    • Cubs LHB (Busch, etc.) vs Pivetta (R): Pivetta’s 2025 wOBA allowed to LHB was .239; Busch carried a .971 OPS in September.
    • Cubs RHB (Suzuki, etc.) vs Pivetta: Pivetta allowed a .272 wOBA to RHB; Suzuki posted an .811 OPS in September.  
    • Padres RHB (Tatis, Machado) vs Boyd (L): Boyd allowed a .297 wOBA to RHB; Machado logged a .675 OPS in September; Tatis finished with a .353 season wOBA

    Writer | Director | Author

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    Featured Comments

    Irrelevant Dude

    Irrelevant Dude 1,546

    Posted (edited)

    26 minutes ago, Bertz said:

    Mike Shildt didn't do anything wrong per se, but using your top 3 relievers in a loss in a series this short *hurts*

    Morejon, Miller, and Estrada threw 9, 13, and 10 pitches respectively, so I don't think they are too concerned with that.

    And they didn't use Suarez.

    Edited by Irrelevant Dude
    Cubfanintheknow

    Cubfanintheknow 149

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

    I think bunting with Merrill was a dumb move by Shildt. That is so 70’s baseball and proven not to be the right move. 
     

    Merrill always seems to kill us, too. Very happy with the bunt.

    Guest

    Guest

    Posted

    Significance of the game 1 win can't be over stated. Just need 1 of the next 2 to advance and with our bats we def. have the ability to close it out tomorrow

    gflore34

    gflore34 966

    Posted (edited)

    10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

    It was the contact play. Ramirez is running as soon as the ball is hit, period. It isn’t bad baserunning. Besides that, playing out. If he doesn’t run they get the guy at 1st. Then the next batter grounds out and they don’t score. 
     

    Believe the GB to Vest was the first out of the inning so, still have two outs, two chances to get the runner home.  Nevertheless. i believe we can agree the baseball world does not care as much about  Red Sox - Yankees as ESPN does.

    Edited by gflore34
    • Like 1
    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,541

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, Connor McConnor said:

    Site Mods online right now.   

     

     

    We'll be live after every game. Come spend some time with us, We're taking questions, reacting, etc. 

    (It'll be a lot more fun when we win, but even during a loss we'll be live)

    • Like 3
    Rcal10

    Rcal10 1,541

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

    So the contact play with a guy on third doesn't work for other teams either apparently.

    Interestingly enough, had Schidt called it with Bogaerts on 3rd he would have scored on the play by Swanson. 

    Rcal10

    Rcal10 1,541

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

    Believe the GB to Vest was the first out of the inning so, still have two outs, two chances to get the runner home. 

    You believe wrong. It was the second out. 

    Connor McConnor

    Connor McConnor 58

    Posted (edited)

    Hey Caesar....Your boy Dansby had a good game today!  Where ya at?

    Edited by Connor McConnor
    • Haha 3
    Guest

    Guest

    Posted

    Show yourself! 

    Bertz

    Bertz 2,652

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

    Morejon, Miller, and Estrada threw 9, 13, and 10 pitches respectively, so I don't think they are too concerned with that.

    And they didn't use Suarez.

    They're certainly not down for the series, but you've now given the Cubs' hitters a fresh look.  Morejon and Miller were definitely used in their ideal pockets of the lineup.  And because they're now up against elimination, unless tomorrow they torch Shota or Cease goes really deep you probably have to plan on using them three days in a row, which *really* impacts performance.

    Chicago Al

    Chicago Al 65

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, Connor McConnor said:

    Site Mods online right now.   

     

     

    Didn’t know there was a NSB YT channel… Subscribed!

    • Like 2
    Connor McConnor

    Connor McConnor 58

    Posted

    Just now, Chicago Al said:

    Didn’t know there was a NSB YT channel… Subscribed!

    Me either.  They need to push it more.  Nice to put a face to the article writers.  And the stat gurus. 

    • Like 1
    Rcal10

    Rcal10 1,541

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Pinerider said:

    Show yourself! 

    Careful what you wish. You have to remember the nonsense he spews doesn’t have to be factual. Just need something bad to happen so he can go off. My hope is he never shows himself again. 

    Irrelevant Dude

    Irrelevant Dude 1,546

    Posted

    Is the 2:08 start time official for Thursday (if necessary)?

    Or could MLB decide to shift that back tomorrow night if one or both of the prime time series end in 2 games?

    squally1313

    squally1313 2,225

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

    We'll be live after every game. Come spend some time with us, We're taking questions, reacting, etc. 

    (It'll be a lot more fun when we win, but even during a loss we'll be live)

    Can you let us know the time stamp of when you power rank game thread posters?

    • Like 1
    • Haha 1
    Bertz

    Bertz 2,652

    Posted

    Not the biggest fan of this but willing to let Craig prove me wrong

     

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,541

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

    Can you let us know the time stamp of when you power rank game thread posters?

    Do you want me to timestamp when I rank *all* the posters or just when I rank you? 

    Spoiler

    You'll be waiting a while.

    Just kidding.

    I love you. You're in my top-1,000 on this site.

     

    • Haha 1
    Rcal10

    Rcal10 1,541

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Bertz said:

    Not the biggest fan of this but willing to let Craig prove me wrong

     

    Me neither. But I didn’t like Palencia coming in when he did either. So what do I know🤷

    Irrelevant Dude

    Irrelevant Dude 1,546

    Posted

    I don't like that starting Kittredge takes your biggest shutdown middle relief guy out of middle relief.  It will be interesting to see how they piece things together.

    Brian707

    Brian707 1,519

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

    Is the 2:08 start time official for Thursday (if necessary)?

    Or could MLB decide to shift that back tomorrow night if one or both of the prime time series end in 2 games?

    Thursday the Cubs will be on a Greyhound up to Milwaukee 

    • Love 1
    Tangled Up in Plaid

    Tangled Up in Plaid 409

    Posted

    They're really trying to neutralize Tatis and Machado.

    Brian707

    Brian707 1,519

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, Connor McConnor said:

    Hey Cesar....Your boy Dansby had a good game today!  Where ya at?

    Don't call him out please lol.

    Its Showtime Halloween GIF by Death Wish Coffee

    • Like 1
    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,016

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

    Is the 2:08 start time official for Thursday (if necessary)?

    Or could MLB decide to shift that back tomorrow night if one or both of the prime time series end in 2 games?

    It will absolutely be changed to a night game if it’s the only Game 3. At least that’s how they’ve done it the previous 2 years.  I would say the only way it stays at 2pm is if 3 or 4 of the series go to a deciding game. 

    DrCub

    DrCub 71

    Posted

    54 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

    Yeah, let Shota start. Stick with the routine, but be ready to make a move just like you were today. Thankfully, they've got a win banked, so there is far less pressure on them. 

    Hoping this plus a lessor started for the Pads translates into a ton of runs for us 

    NorthsideAvenger

    NorthsideAvenger 432

    Posted (edited)

    Cool to get G1. Go get G2 and put the Padres away.

    Edited by NorthsideAvenger


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