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    Padres-Cubs Wild Card Game One Thread, By The Numbers

    How have Padres hitters fared against Matthew Boyd, and how have the Cubs done against Nick Pivetta?
    Brandon Glick

    By Brandon Glick

    Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

    Cubs Video

    The Cubs host the Padres at Wrigley Field for game one of the best-of-three National League Wild Card Series; San Diego has tabbed Nick Pivetta as their game one starter, and the series will be played entirely at Wrigley Field.  

    Cubs hitters vs Nick Pivetta
    Pivetta, a right-hander, showed reverse splits in 2025: he allowed a .239 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .272 wOBA to right-handed batters. Chicago’s September production offers a few specific matchups to watch. Michael Busch (LHB) posted a .244/.337/.634 (.971 OPS) in September (95 PA). Ian Happ (switch-hitter) produced a .287/.382/.511 (.893 OPS) in September (110 PA). Seiya Suzuki (RHB) logged a .232/.333/.478 (.811 OPS) in September (81 PA).  

    Nick Pivetta vs. Chicago Cubs: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Dansby Swanson R 35 34 10 1 0 2 5 1 11 .294 .314 .500 .814 0 0 0 0 0
    2 Kyle Tucker L 12 10 2 1 0 0 2 1 2 .200 .250 .300 .550 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Ian Happ B 11 10 3 1 0 0 0 1 6 .300 .364 .400 .764 0 0 0 0 0
    4 Justin Turner R 9 8 5 2 0 2 3 1 0 .625 .667 1.625 2.292 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Reese McGuire L 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .429 .333 .762 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Carson Kelly R 6 6 3 0 1 0 1 0 3 .500 .500 .833 1.333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Michael Busch L 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .000 .200 .000 .200 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Seiya Suzuki R 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .200 .200 .200 .400 0 0 0 0 1
    9 Willi Castro B 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    10 Nico Hoerner R 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    11 Pete Crow-Armstrong L 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .500 .333 .833 0 0 0 0 0
    12 Matt Shaw R 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Padres hitters vs Matthew Boyd
    Left-hander Matthew Boyd draws the Game 1 start for Chicago, nudging past Shota Imanaga to open the Cubs’ postseason. In 2025, Boyd held left-handed batters to a .258 wOBA and right-handed batters to a .297 wOBA. Manny Machado finished September with a .207/.250/.425 (.675 OPS), while Fernando Tatis Jr. finished the regular season with a .293/.352/.549 (.900 OPS) slash in September.  

    Matthew Boyd vs. San Diego Padres: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Xander Bogaerts R 18 16 3 0 0 1 3 2 3 .188 .278 .375 .653 0 0 0 0 1
    2 Manny Machado R 14 13 5 2 0 0 3 0 3 .385 .357 .538 .896 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Luis Arráez L 9 7 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 .429 .556 .571 1.127 0 0 0 1 0
    4 Freddy Fermin R 7 7 2 1 0 0 2 0 3 .286 .286 .429 .714 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Elias Díaz R 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 .400 .500 .400 .900 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Fernando Tatis Jr. R 6 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 .167 .167 .167 .333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Jackson Merrill L 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Jose Iglesias R 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .667 0 0 0 0 0
    9 Jake Cronenworth L 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Defensive context
    Outs on contact could swing this game. Chicago’s center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks among MLB’s 2025 leaders with +21 Outs Above Average, providing elite gap coverage behind any starter the Cubs deploy. At shortstop, Dansby Swanson is again a positive in Statcast’s range metrics (+1 OAA at SS in 2025), a drop from previous seasons but still capable. For San Diego, Fernando Tatis Jr. brings plus defense in right field (+7 OAA), a notable factor against Wrigley’s alley-driven extra-base profile.  

    Notes On Key Matchups

    • Cubs LHB (Busch, etc.) vs Pivetta (R): Pivetta’s 2025 wOBA allowed to LHB was .239; Busch carried a .971 OPS in September.
    • Cubs RHB (Suzuki, etc.) vs Pivetta: Pivetta allowed a .272 wOBA to RHB; Suzuki posted an .811 OPS in September.  
    • Padres RHB (Tatis, Machado) vs Boyd (L): Boyd allowed a .297 wOBA to RHB; Machado logged a .675 OPS in September; Tatis finished with a .353 season wOBA

    Writer | Director | Author

    Short Film: Path of Two Minds
    Novel: The Great, Horrible Tragedy

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    Featured Comments

    Derwood

    Derwood 3,372

    Posted

    Doing our best Brewers impersonation with these seeing eye singles

    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,016

    Posted

    Our turn to BABIP!

    PeanutPunch33

    PeanutPunch33 209

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

    ...but why? 

    I know he's had a good year.. just a bad gut feeling.  

    Guest

    Guest

    Posted

    Oh gawd here comes tucker. Make me eat crow now please

    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,016

    Posted

    The way this game is going, another run would make me a decent amount more comfortable.

    squally1313

    squally1313 2,225

    Posted

    Just now, Pinerider said:

    Oh gawd here comes tucker. Make me eat crow now please

    Happ first. But Tucker v Miller is going to be fun.

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,541

    Posted

    Alright, Tucker. Let's get a big one.

    PeanutPunch33

    PeanutPunch33 209

    Posted

    Sorry to be the old man, but Ian should lay down a bunt.  This 3rd run is huge

    Guest

    Guest

    Posted

    Gotta have it Kyle

    Hortonhearsawho

    Hortonhearsawho 84

    Posted

    I was hoping for a happ bunt there and that is why 

    Guest

    Guest

    Posted

    ugh

    Outshined_One

    Outshined_One 847

    Posted

    Well that was anticlimactic.

    Derwood

    Derwood 3,372

    Posted

    Happ hit it hard, but bad luck.

    Ugh

    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,016

    Posted

    Wow 2 pitches to turn a 1st and 2nd 0 out situation into end of inning.

    squally1313

    squally1313 2,225

    Posted

    Unquestionably bad at bat from Tucker. Happ hit the ball 100 mph.

    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,016

    Posted

    This is not going to help the very fickle Cubs twitter relationship with Ian Happ

    mul21

    mul21 1,135

    Posted

    1 minute ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

    Sorry to be the old man, but Ian should lay down a bunt.  This 3rd run is huge

    The only bunt attempt he made all year ended in disaster, so no. He also hit that ball almost 101 mph, so he put a good swing on it.

    Irrelevant Dude

    Irrelevant Dude 1,546

    Posted

    This is what we all predicted this spring, right?  Drew Pomeranz in critical late innings of playoff games.

    • Haha 1
    Eeyore

    Eeyore 199

    Posted

    Sunglasses on the back of his head

    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,016

    Posted

    Remember when we signed Pomeranz and were like 'lolz this dude hasnt pitched in the majors in 2 years, what's he gonna do for us?'  Now he's pitching in the 7th inning of a playoff game protecting a 1 run lead.

    • Like 1
    PeanutPunch33

    PeanutPunch33 209

    Posted

    1 minute ago, mul21 said:

    The only bunt attempt he made all year ended in disaster, so no. He also hit that ball almost 101 mph, so he put a good swing on it.

    It was still the right thing to do though even if it didn't work out.  Jackson Merrill is 3x the player Happ is and he laid down a bunt just a few innings before, it's time to play winning baseball 

    • Haha 1
    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,541

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, mul21 said:

    The only bunt attempt he made all year ended in disaster, so no. He also hit that ball almost 101 mph, so he put a good swing on it.

    Yeah, he hit it hard. 

    Sadly, the recipe for a double play usually includes two good ingredients: someone else had to be on base (a good thing) and someone had to hit the ball hard (a good thing). 

    Eeyore

    Eeyore 199

    Posted

    In Japan, apparently, they know how to wear sunglasses.



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