Nico Hoerner's Last Stand

If you only look at his forearms, it's easy to dream on Nico Hoerner taking a big step forward in the power department as he enters his mid-20s; it just requires a change of approach. If you look only at his swing speeds and exit velocities, it's impossible to imagine him ever tapping into more than a modicum of pop. The truth, surely, is somewhere in the middle.

If you only watched Hoerner play defense in 2023, when his one-year slide over to shortstop was scrapped in deference to the arrival of free agent Dansby Swanson and he could unleash the athleticism he'd carefully built up to make playing short possible on the easier duty of playing second base, he looks like a long-term asset based on his glovework, alone. He was everywhere. If you only watched him play in 2024, when a forearm problem exacerbated what was already a slightly problematic weak arm, he looks like a player without a true defensive home—solid at second, but limited; fine if he moved to left field, but the bat wouldn't play; good at third base, maybe, but in a Nick Madrigal kind of way. The truth is somewhere in the middle.

You could forgive Hoerner if he feels a bit stuck in the middle with the Cubs right now, and you could forgive the Cubs (and their fans) if they feel a similar sort of frustration. After that 2022 breakout campaign, so much looked possible. Hoerner moved to shortstop to replace Javier Báez, and admirably held his own; hit 10 home runs in 517 plate appearances; maintained a superb strikeout rate; and stole bases very efficiently. He was an exciting young player, and the extension he signed in Mar. 2023 gave fans hope that he would blossom into a genuine star under cost control—if only for the medium term, rather than for another decade.

Instead, the last two seasons have been uneven. They feel like steps sideways, rather than forward. Hoerner has still made contact at an elite rate, and he's increased his walk rate incrementally. Instead of growing into a bit more power, though, that part of his game has regressed, and he's used the opposite field a bit less well, to boot. He's been an average overall hitter, which can still be hugely valuable if one adds tons of value on the bases and in the field—but after racking up 22 steals in his final 65 games of 2023, he stole just 31 all season in 2024. His second-half OBP in 2023 was pushing .380, but in 2024, there was no similarly hot stretch, and his final number was .335. Meanwhile, his defense was solid, but the spark of spectacularity that he showed with the leather in 2023 was gone.

This year, Hoerner has to pick some lanes and thrive within them. He's making $11.5 million in 2025 and $12 million in 2026, for his ages-28 and 29 seasons. He won't still be young on the other side of these seasons, when he heads for free agency. He needs to realize his potential—if he hasn't already done so—right now. This is his last chance to remain in the Cubs' plans, even for the final year of his deal.

The best version of Hoerner is the guy we've already seen, in the second half of 2023 and the middle of 2022. It's a selectively aggressive, high-contact, high-OBP profile, even if that means willingly trading what little power he can access. He traded away that power in 2024, alright, as his Damage rate on batted balls (the percentage of batted balls that had an exit velocity, launch angle and hit direction likely to lead to an extra-base hit) fell from the league's 10th percentile in both 2022 and 2023 to the 4th percentile in 2024. Unfortunately, he didn't get selective aggression in the exchange; he didn't create more hard contact to the opposite field or draw more walks. His SEAGER (Selective Aggression Engagement Rate) score fell from the 37th and 42nd percentiles in the league the previous two seasons to the 15th in 2024, so he didn't have even a prolonged stretch where he was that .300 hitter with a strong walk rate to boost it.

He has to change that this season, if he wants to take a step toward stardom. He has to convert more of his count management to walks, and/or sit on certain pitch types and locations and create more line drives to all fields, so he can get on base at a .370 clip. Otherwise, he won't be in very high demand this winter. Now, here's the twist: whether he takes that step forward or not, the Cubs are going to trade him next offseason.

Why? Mainly, it's because of Swanson. With five years and $139 million left on his deal, there's no turning back on the team's commitment to him, but Swanson will be 31 this year. Actuarially, in the modern game, it's very unlikely that he sticks at shortstop beyond this year. In 2024, for the first time in modern history, no player in the league played even 120 games at short at age 31 or older. Swanson will stick at the spot for 2025, but we saw him begin to deteriorate in the field even in 2024. His greatest limitation has always been arm strength, so the natural place for him to move is second base. In all likelihood, come 2026, Swanson will have crossed the keystone, and the Cubs will either have Jefferson Rojas ready; slide Matt Shaw over from third to short; or go shopping for an alternative. No matter which it is, Hoerner is likely to be shipped out, to replenish the farm system; bolster the pitching staff; save money; and/or create space for Swanson, Shaw, Rojas, and/or James Triantos, depending on how this season unfolds.

This season is Hoerner's last stand. He needs to have a big campaign. If he does, he might get a lot of reps at the top of the batting order, and he might catalyze the Cubs' run back to the playoffs. He might earn himself a lot of money in the process. What he probably won't do, either way, is earn a long-term place in the Cubs' plans.